Gold📉Probability of a Drop from 2912:
🔹 In lower timeframes (15m to 1h): 70% probability of a downward correction at least to 2887.
🔹In higher timeframes (4H to Daily): 50% probability of a deeper decline towards 2860.
🔹 If 2912 is broken and price stabilizes above it:** The probability of an upward move to 2940 increases.
📌 Summary:
If the price breaks and stabilizes above 2912, the upward trend is likely to continue. However, if it gets rejected at this level, a downward correction towards 2887 and even 2860 may occur.
Metals
Sharing a strategyFor my scalping or Intraday trade, I created this pine script combining various indicator (namely the famous Alphatrend by @KivancOzbilgic, Previous Day Close and 52WeeksHigh/Low) into one indicator.
If price goes above the PDC and Alphatrend is a buy then I will make quick long trade. If price goes below the PDC and Alphatrend is a sell then I will make quick short trade. I added a percentage based on PDC to give me where I need to put my stoploss. Not really important as I always have proper risk reward ratio but it comes handy most of the time.
XAUUSD M30 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M30 chart, price has broken below our sell entry level at 2,894.83, which aligns with a previous support turned resistance. confirming a potential bearish continuation.
A retest of this level may present further downside opportunities, with our take profit set at 2,882.29, near a key support zone.
The stop loss is placed at 2,909.01, above a recent swing high, ensuring the trade remains valid while allowing for market fluctuations.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD:11/2 Today's Market Analysis and Strategy30-minute resistance 2935, support 2915
1-hour resistance 2950, support 2900
Currently, the rising channel is complete, RSI is not overbought (about 65), and there is still room for upward movement.
Focus on the support strength of the 2910-2915 range. If it holds, it will remain bullish.
Note: If it breaks through 2950 during the day, it may accelerate towards 3000; if it pulls back to around 2900, it will attract long-term buying funds to enter the market.
Personal opinion: Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate upward, and the Asian and European sessions may test 2950-2960$, mainly buying on dips
Gold plunges, can it break the upward trend?Gold finally fell on the daily line. After setting a record high of 2942 yesterday, the RSI indicator showed an overbought price for the first time and returned to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The latest MA10/7-day moving average stopped at 2875/2853, and the daily line began to fall and adjust. The four-hour chart and the hourly chart moving average are glued together, the hourly chart Bollinger Band is flat, and the RSI indicator turns downward and is below the central axis. The trading is based on a wide range of fluctuations during the day.
If the US market meets the negative expectations of CPl data, the band decline is likely to be established, and you can continue to pay attention to the layout of the band short opportunity. If the data does not meet expectations and forms a significant positive, you need to pay attention to the second test of the previous high of the gold price. At present, the daily line has turned downward, and the main idea during the day is to sell at a high price and wait for adjustments.
Recently, due to the resurgence of the trade war, the market's risk aversion has pushed gold to continue to refresh historical highs. The technical side shows a long arrangement, and there is no historical reference pressure. Therefore, the trend judgment is more about paying attention to some real-time signals in the market in a timely manner. The short-term indicators are seriously overbought, and there is a need for adjustment. This decline is also beyond expectations! Therefore, the next operation idea is very clear. Relying on the daily defensive moving average to go long, and breaking the position to go short and bearish.
From a short-term perspective, gold has also entered the stage of adjustment, but the adjustment is also very beneficial to our later layout, because only adjustment can better buy! At present, the gold price has reached the support of the moving average, and the price is also staying near the 2881 line. The short-term adjustment obviously feels the support below. For this, the gold adjustment market will gradually come to an end, and the rising wave will follow!
Key points:
First support: 2882, second support: 2861, third support: 2844
First resistance: 2913, second resistance: 2926, third resistance: 2942
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2878-2881, SL: 2869, TP: 2900-2920;
SELL: 2918-2921, SL: 2929, TP: 2890-2880;
FED Chairman's testimony before CongressGold prices fell from historic levels as investors evaluated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony and new trade policy statements from US President Donald Trump.
Market sentiment is mainly influenced by two important developments. First, President Donald Trump's announcement on Sunday of plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, with no exceptions or exemptions, has raised concerns about potential trade conflicts.
Second, FED Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing also had a big impact on market developments. In his opening speech, Mr. Powell emphasized that the FED remains cautious in cutting interest rates, citing the solid economy and inflation continuously exceeding the FED's 2% target.
Investors are closely watching Mr. Powell's two-day testimony for clues about upcoming monetary policy, especially in the context of consumer price index (CPI) data about to be released. If inflation is higher than expected, market expectations of two interest rate cuts this year could be challenged.
The decline in gold prices from record highs also reflects profit-taking activities after a strong increase since mid-December, with an increase of about 370 USD, equivalent to 14.25%. This adjustment shows that investors are taking advantage of profit-taking opportunities, while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy and trade risks.
Bullish momemtum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,873.49
1st Support: 2,839.87
1st Resistance: 2,917.79
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold Sweeps before Major PlaysWait if you looking for the move! Cause price will give us some type of validation of what it wants to do. It can remain bullish and break through this area or it can pull back and grab some liquidity before continuing. We just have to wait for the killzones to show up a clearer read.
Gold Cup and Handle?Gold doesn't seem to move even with high Inflation data in the past months, possibly because the Crypto market is eating slowly it's market.
However it seems like there is potential Cup and Handle which might lead to Gold prices around 2500$ Ounce in the next few years.
A possible catalyst might be invasion of Ukraine, since Gold performs quite well during wars - however I truly Hope this never happens.
Just posting this here so I can keep track of it in the future, will update it if there is any news ahead.
XAU/USD Bullish Breakout – Gold Eyes $2,928 & Beyond!🔥 XAU/USD Analysis – February 4, 2025 🔥
📈 Current Price: $2,842.18 (+0.98%)
📊 Trend: Bullish momentum inside an ascending channel
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
🔵 Resistance: $2,928.75 – If this level breaks, expect further upside movement! 🚀
🔵 Support: $2,729.13 – Strong demand zone; watch for pullbacks.
🔴 EMA 200: $2,534.85 – Long-term bullish confirmation above this level! ✅
📉 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case: Price continues the uptrend, targeting $2,928.75 next. If broken, gold could see $3,000+ soon! 🎯🔥
⚠️ Bearish Case: A rejection from resistance could lead to a pullback towards $2,800-$2,730.
💡 Final Thoughts:
The bullish momentum is still strong, and dips could be buying opportunities! 📊👑 Watch for price action near key levels.
📢 Gold bulls, are you ready for new highs? 🚀💰
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
A perfect finish to this chart idea with our final target at 2923 now complete.
Yesterday we started with our Bullish target 2872 and then cross and lock confirmed 2885 and 2898, which was hit perfectly. This followed with ema5 lock above 2898 opening 2911 and 2923. We got the 2911 target and stated that if 2898 and 2885 Goldturns provide support now, we may get the momentum for the 2923 test sooner rather then later.
- 2898 provided the support and we got the final target at 2923 to complete this chart idea.
We spent the rest of the day buying dips from the lower weighted Goldturns, which is providing the support and bounce.
We are back within this chart range and therefore can continue to track the movement here. However we also have our 4h chart idea to track the remaining range
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2872 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2872 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2885 - DONE
2898 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2898 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2911 - DONE
2923 - DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
2851
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2851 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
2836 - 2819
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2819 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2807 - 2794
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
2782 - 2764
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (UPDATE)Gold has been absolutely crazy since market open last night! With a huge 350 PIPS move up on market open, price crashed back down 600 PIPS overnight. This impulse move down is a strong indication the top for Wave 5 could be in.
Time for market structure to form its corrective phase now📉
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Short ( SELL STOP )Technical Analysis:
• Daily Chart:
• Clear strong bullish momentum with price at 2906.68, trending above key moving averages.
• RSI at 77.97, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting potential for short-term retracement.
• MACD shows strong bullish momentum.
• 15-Minute Chart:
• Recent retracement from a high around 2932 suggests temporary resistance.
• RSI around 55.81, indicating a balanced market, with no immediate divergence signals.
• MACD shows waning bullish momentum but still trending positively.
• 3-Minute Chart:
• Evidence of intraday recovery from the recent drop, with price approaching resistance near 2907.
• MACD shows recovery signals, and RSI at 61.07 indicates room for further upside.
Fundamental Analysis:
• Recent strong gold prices likely driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and possible dollar weakness.
• Central bank buying and geopolitical factors remain supportive for gold prices.
• However, overbought technical levels may trigger profit-taking.
Trade Idea (Short Position - Countertrend):
Given the overbought daily RSI and potential for a short-term correction:
• Entry: 2905
• Stop Loss: 2920
• Take Profit: 2875
This provides a 2:1 Risk-Reward Ratio (15 points risk, 30 points reward).
SILVER - Finally Following Gold!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈SILVER has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the blue rising wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAGUSD approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Silver is in the Bearish trend after testing ResistanceHello Traders
In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XAGUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-11 : GAP DefenderThe GAP Defender pattern is where price struggles to maintain a recent open GAP - attempting to defend against closing that GAP.
In my mind, this is the lower GAP window between 601.30 and 602.75 (yesterday's opening GAP range).
If this recent gap is filled, then I suggest the SPY will attempt to move downward (into my Deep-V breakdown) trying to target the lower GAP near 584.29.
Watch Gold and Silver as they continue to breakdown. Any big breakdown in metals should be considered a warning sign the markets are moving into a PANIC phase (selling).
We have lots of news today (Powell and other Fed members testifying) while we just found out Trump initiated a larger tariff on steel. I believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to put pressure on global currencies - possibly leading to even more foreign market distress. This may result in a broader global market breakdown over the next 5-10 trading days.
Remember, we have the Deep-V pattern setting up this week and another Major Bottom pattern setting up on Feb 21. I interpret this as a dual-breakdown event - where price attempts to move downward and tries to identify solid support.
Bitcoin will likely follow this trend downward over the next 5 to 10+ days.
Buckle up.
It looks like today may be the day my Deep-V breakdown starts to drive prices lower for the SPY/QQQ and other major sectors.
We'll see how things play out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2903.84
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2880.90
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD: Channel Up correcting but will now resume bullish trend.Gold is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.385, MACD = 54.590, ADX = 56.363) and today's pullback comes as a natural technical correction inside the Channel Up pattern. The 4H MA50 is the short term support and as long as it holds, we anticipate an extension of the bullish wave now that the P1 level (former Resistance) is hit, same to what happened on February 3rd. Aim for a full +5.50% extension (TP = 2,980).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Gold dips $50 from ATHGold has dropped more than $50 from its overnight high, when it set a new a record at $2942. It is now back below $2900 as rising bond yields and the dollar provides counterbalance to haven demand amid trade wars.
At the time of writing, it was testing short-term support near $2880/84 area, where it had previously found resistance, before breaking to new all time highs.
But is this a mere dip from severely overbought levels, or a potential turning point?
Despite today's reversal, gold remains firmly in an uptrend, consistently setting new highs. However, signs of exhaustion has now started to emerge. Let's see how much of selling pressure will the bears bring here.
The price of gold had reached extreme levels amid insatiable demand lately. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was flashing overbought signals across multiple timeframes: the daily RSI was sitting near 78 before today's drop, while the weekly was also above 70 with negative divergence, and the monthly had pushed beyond 79. These levels suggest that a pullback or consolidation may be on the horizon, which may now be underway.
However, a clear reversal signal is needed before we can turn tactically bearish. Perhaps, if we see a complete engulfing of yesterday's range, that might be the trigger?
Anyway, this goes to show that the overbought RSI conditions serve as a warning for bulls to remain vigilant, and that one should not take anything for granted in trading.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Gold Is Nearing An Important SupportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 2885 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 2885 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.