Gold trading zones: 09-DEC-2024Your daily Gold trading briefing: Zones, insights, and opportunities.
Metals
Pay attention to the trading range of 2625~2657Weekend news shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings by 160,000 ounces again after six months. After more than 13 years of civil war, Syrian opposition forces seized control of the capital Damascus on Sunday. The martial law crisis in South Korea continues to ferment. In the short term, bullish opportunities have increased.
On the one hand, the market will continue to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, but more attention may be focused on the US November CPI data to be released this week. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations. Although the situation in Syria may boost safe-haven buying in the short term, it should be noted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas may usher in a ceasefire, which may suppress the trend of gold prices.
The MA10/7-day moving average of gold still remains flat, the price is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator continues to adjust the central axis. The Asian session opened high and touched 2648, and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart also closed. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at the beginning of the week. Intraday trading will first look at the 2625/2657 range adjustment, and short-term thinking game of selling high and buying low.
The risk aversion sentiment of gold rose over the weekend, but the rise of gold did not continue. It continued to rise and fall, so it is still difficult for gold bulls to stir up big waves. Wait for the rebound to continue to short.
Gold continued to fluctuate in 1 hour, and the moving average still crossed downward and diverged. Gold has not broken through 2657 under the risk aversion situation, so gold will continue to short at highs below 2657.
First support: 2625, second support: 2616, third support: 2603
First resistance: 2657, second resistance: 2668, third resistance: 2677
Trading strategy:
According to the first resistance/support, sell high and buy low in the range of 2625~2657. The focus above is 2668.
Safe Haven Volume-Weighted Cross-Asset Correlation Insights1. Introduction
Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen, are vital components in diversified portfolios, especially during periods of market uncertainty. These assets tend to attract capital in times of economic distress, serving as hedges against risk. While traditional price correlation analyses have long been used to assess relationships between assets, they often fail to account for the nuances introduced by trading volume and liquidity.
In this article, we delve into volume-weighted returns, a metric that incorporates trading volume into correlation analysis. This approach reveals deeper insights into the interplay between safe-haven assets and broader market dynamics. By examining how volume-weighted correlations evolve across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can uncover actionable patterns and refine their strategies.
The aim is to provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of safe-haven assets, bridging the gap between traditional price-based correlations and liquidity-driven metrics to empower traders with more comprehensive insights.
2. The Role of Volume in Correlation Analysis
Volume-weighted returns account for the magnitude of trading activity, offering a nuanced view of asset relationships. For safe-haven assets, this is particularly important, as periods of high trading volume often coincide with heightened market stress or major economic events. By integrating volume into return calculations, traders can better understand how liquidity flows shape market trends.
3. Heatmap Analysis: Key Insights
The heatmaps of volume-weighted return correlations across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes provide a wealth of insights into the behavior of safe-haven assets. Key observations include:
Gold (GC) and Treasuries (ZN): These assets exhibit stronger correlations over weekly and monthly timeframes. This alignment often reflects shared macroeconomic drivers, such as inflation expectations or central bank policy decisions, which influence safe-haven demand.
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
These findings highlight the evolving nature of cross-asset relationships and the role volume plays in amplifying or dampening correlations. By analyzing these trends, traders can gain a clearer understanding of the market forces at play.
4. Case Studies: Safe-Haven Dynamics
Gold vs. Treasuries (GC vs. ZN):
Gold and Treasuries are often considered classic safe-haven assets, attracting investor capital during periods of inflationary pressure or market turbulence. Volume-weighted return correlations between these two assets tend to strengthen in weekly and monthly timeframes.
For example:
During inflationary periods, both assets see heightened demand, reflected in higher trading volumes and stronger correlations.
Geopolitical uncertainties, such as trade wars or military conflicts, often lead to synchronized movements as investors seek safety.
The volume-weighted perspective adds depth, revealing how liquidity flows into these markets align during systemic risk episodes, providing traders with an additional layer of analysis for portfolio hedging.
5. Implications for Traders
Portfolio Diversification:
Volume-weighted correlations offer a unique way to assess diversification benefits. For example:
Weakening correlations between Gold and Treasuries during stable periods may signal opportunities to increase exposure to other uncorrelated assets.
Conversely, stronger correlations during market stress highlight the need to diversify beyond safe havens to reduce concentration risk.
Risk Management:
Tracking volume-weighted correlations helps traders detect shifts in safe-haven demand. For instance:
A sudden spike in the volume-weighted correlation between Treasuries and the Japanese Yen may indicate heightened risk aversion, suggesting a need to adjust portfolio exposure.
Declining correlations could signal the return of idiosyncratic drivers, providing opportunities to rebalance holdings.
Trade Timing:
Volume-weighted metrics can enhance timing strategies by confirming market trends:
Strengthening correlations between safe-haven assets can validate macroeconomic narratives, such as inflation fears or geopolitical instability, helping traders align their strategies accordingly.
Conversely, weakening correlations may signal the onset of new market regimes, offering early indications for tactical repositioning.
6. Limitations and Considerations
While volume-weighted return analysis offers valuable insights, it is essential to understand its limitations:
Influence of Extreme Events:
Significant market events, such as unexpected central bank announcements or geopolitical crises, can create anomalies in volume-weighted correlations. These events may temporarily distort the relationships between assets, leading to misleading signals for traders who rely solely on this metric.
Short-Term Noise:
Volume-weighted correlations over shorter timeframes, such as daily windows, are more susceptible to market noise. Sudden spikes in trading volume driven by speculative activity or high-frequency trading can obscure meaningful trends.
Interpretation Challenges:
Understanding the drivers behind changes in volume-weighted correlations requires a strong grasp of macroeconomic forces and market structure. Without context, traders risk misinterpreting these dynamics, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions.
By recognizing these limitations, traders can use volume-weighted correlations as a complementary tool rather than a standalone solution, combining it with other forms of analysis for more robust decision-making.
7. Conclusion
Volume-weighted return analysis provides a fresh lens for understanding the complex dynamics of safe-haven assets. By integrating trading volume into correlation metrics, this approach uncovers liquidity-driven relationships that are often missed in traditional price-based analyses.
Key takeaways from this study include:
Safe-haven assets such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen exhibit stronger volume-weighted correlations over longer timeframes, driven by shared macroeconomic forces.
For traders, the practical applications are clear: volume-weighted correlations can potentially enhance portfolio diversification, refine risk management strategies, and improve market timing. By incorporating this type of methodology into their workflow, market participants can adapt to shifting market conditions with greater precision.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
XAUUSD | LONG | 1.72 RRR set-up.This is my set-up for XAUUSD.
If you want to trade this and achieve 1.7 RRR you can ladder your entries as seen in the chart. "Amount" acts as % in this case.
XAUUSD (Gold), falling to 2545 secondlyHi everybody. Gold want try fall to support lavel 2545. On 4H we have good bears accumulation process BUT there is strong re-sell on 2572 and higher. Levels thanks to X-Lines script. Have a nice trading week ;)
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 09 - Dec 13]Last week, international OANDA:XAUUSD almost went sideways in a range from 2,613 - 2,657 USD/oz.
The US economy created 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts. At the same time, wages increased faster than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased again to 4.2%. However, these data show that the US labor market has been tending to recover, creating momentum for the FED to consider delaying interest rate cuts in the context of higher inflation, especially is when Mr. Trump is about to take office as President of the United States.
Thus, there may not be much room for gold prices to increase because the FED cuts interest rates. Therefore, gold prices will need additional catalysts from geopolitical factors, central banks increasing gold purchases, etc.
Short-term gold prices in general and next week's gold prices in particular will still be in a state of tension between concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and Mr. Trump's strong tariff measures, causing US Treasury bond yields to increase. , creating strength for the USD and limiting the rise in gold prices.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, we can see that the moving average ema89 is moving sideways, the gold price continues to accumulate sideways in a narrow range. Accordingly, the resistance level to pay attention to is around the 2720 mark, the support level to pay attention to is around the 2535 mark. Gold prices will create a clear trend when breaking through these two resistance levels.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,600 – 2,606USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2534 - 2536⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2530
GOLD SHOWING WEAKNESS, MAY LIKELY BE A SELL...A gold bullish rally into the highlighted area followed by another rejection will likely see gold declining towards 2500 in coming days. However, a close above 2720 will indicate gold's readiness to continue its bullish run.
N.B!
- XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gold
#xauusd
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,666.69
1st Support: 2,529.22
1st Support: 2,529.22
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Bearish on CrudeOilA very short post 😁
I just wanted to let you know, based on my technical analysis I see $62 to $63.5 an area that Crude Oil probably see in the near future. Then it has the potential to go towards $57.
That's it 😉
Cheers 🍻
What about DXY?I haven't updated my DXY analysis for a while. So let's dust it off.
The last update was in September when the atmosphere was changing in a way that we couldn't predict the US Election clearly and for a short period, the market thought the results wouldn't be as it is today. That was why I was a bit bearish on DXY. By getting closer to Election Day the clouds were going away and it got easier for the market to see the outcome. So, it strengthened the dollar while weakening the Gold as we expected the geopolitical tensions to cool off.
What's next?
For now, I see the 10-year bond yield can show a bit more weakness to come just below 3.99%. Then after that, we should update our analysis and see what comes next. But I think ~4% is low for now and after that, I like to see a jump back up. In this short-term correction DXY would follow the 10-year bond yield and most probably come into the range of 104 to 105. That's also can be a small driver for Gold to go higher a bit.
Bullish on Gold and Silver
Do you remember the previous post? 😉
Gold and silver moved as we expected. They showed some weakness in reaching the "Nice areas..." I highlighted this in the previous chart.
So what's next?
As I think we will see another rate cut from the US Fed I think that would be a decent driver for Gold and Silver to get a bit more stronger and don't go lower than the "Nice areas" that I highlighted.
For Silver, I see a very good potential for a move higher towards $36 (I hope before February) and for Gold, I think we can expect a bit more strength from buyers to push Gold to $3000 this year on a slow and steady pace.
Stay tuned for the next updates . . .
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Boi does this market blow at the moment. Nested triangles on multiple time frames and that’s as neutral as it gets. I doubt bulls can even get it above 2700 again at this point. 2660 is the midpoint for now and the range is big, so either buy low and sell it inside of it or wait for a bigger breakout. Bulls need something above 2750 and bears below 2560. Huge range. A lot of traders that have bought above 2700 are underwater. The longer this stays below it, the less likely it is to get back up there.
Quote from last week:
comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty ducking good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored.
comment: I won’t waste much time with this market this week. Clear triangle and market is in total balance around 2660. Wait for the breakout or play the range. My best guess would be that we both see 2600 and 2700 in the next 3 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2600 - 2700
bull case: Bulls breakout point is 2750 and that is far away. Buying below 2650 has been profitable the past 2 weeks but bulls could not close one single day above the 20ema. Best to wait until we clearly see a winner here. Daily close above 2700 would be a great start for bulls.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Bears need to break 2627 for testing 2600 and then it’s the big bull trend line. If they would somehow manage to break even that, last support is 2568 before we go down to 2500.
Invalidation is above 2700.
outlook last week:
short term: S lightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2681 and now we are at 2659. We stayed above 2630 and went nowhere. Meh outlook.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bullish two-legged move up.
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold prices are currently in a neutral range-bound trend, oscillating between the defined zones. This behavior reflects a lack of clear market direction in the short term.
It is expected that after continuing its fluctuations within this range, the price will break the identified support zone and move toward its bearish targets.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
GOLD consolidated all last week! Will we get a move this week?Waiting for price to break outside of value so that we can get a clear direction. Price did not much move waiting for NFP news for the week. And when the news finally happened it did nothing. So we will sit on our hands until price tells us what it would like to do. I am over all bullish and looking for bullish entries. But I also do not want to stick to firm to my bias so if it drops we will hold off and allow price to tell us what it wants to do.
GOLD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2633.3
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 2642.2
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
How High Can BITCOIN go versus GOLD (sorry uncle Peter Schiff)One of the frequent topics of discussion revolves around the legitimacy of this pattern. There’s a widespread misunderstanding about the continuation type of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Indeed, it is a valid and dependable chart pattern.
Let’s explore this often-recognized chart pattern in more detail.
The Head and Shoulders chart pattern can manifest as a continuation on price charts. In an uptrend, a continuation H&S will closely resemble a H&S bottom, while in a downtrend, it will look like an inverse H&S. The implications and interpretations of a continuation H&S are generally consistent with those of reversal patterns. Price targets can be established in the same manner as they are for reversal patterns.
When a head and shoulders continuation forms during an uptrend, it typically breaks out to new highs once the pattern is completed. Breakouts to all-time highs from bullish continuation patterns are often reliable and robust.
Edwards and Magee highlighted the H&S continuation in their book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," back in the 1930s. The pattern remains largely unchanged in today’s price charts.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2645 and a gap below at 2626. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2645
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2661
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2679
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2679 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
BEARISH TARGETS
2626
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2626 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2612
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2612 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2599 - 2584
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price lay between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2648 and a gap below at 2629, as weighted Goldturns and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2648
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2648 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2675
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2675 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2701
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2701 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2749
BEARISH TARGETS
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2729 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2604
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2604 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2583 - 2561
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Another update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now and still playing out as analysed.
As stated already this chart allowed us to project the long term corrections and direction. We are using this chart to track our bullish targets until no ema5 lock to confirm rejections on the levels.
The channel top is continuing to provide support like we stated last week, although we saw candle body close below the channel 2 weeks ago, there was no ema5 break into the channel confirming the support and rejection, which allowed us to identify the fake-out and confirm the support.
This is the beauty of our Gold channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than the price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
As long as we see no lock below into the channel, we cane safely continue with our plans to buy dips in this range.
We will continue to track the movement down and trade the bounces up, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps above for the future.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
This is the monthly chart idea for our long term/range analysis, which we shared last update in November. Previously after completing the bull targets, we were left with a big detachment to ema5. This was hit and completed for the correction, as highlighted by the circle on the chart, which also gave the bounce, allowing us to buy dips inline with our plans.
This month also started with a detachment to ema5 below for a correction, which was nearly completed and can be pulled up to complete, also highlighted with a small mini circle on the charts for visual purpose.
This area above 2689 is a strong level of support with ema5 providing dynamic support now for a bounce. Each of the lower Goldturn levels below are likely to give re-actional bounces just like our shorter time frame ideas.
However, we will keep in mind the channel top that may require a support test. We will continue use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gap above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
HelenP. I Gold can fall to support level and then start to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and soon broke it. After this, the price some time traded near the 2720 level and later rebounded up to the trend line. Then Gold turned around and started to decline inside the triangle, where it in a short time declined below the 2720 level, and broke it one more time. Then XAU declined a little more, after which rose a little and then continued to decline to the support level, which coincided with the support level. When the price fell to this level, it broke it and fell to 2536 points, but at once turned around and made impulse up, breaking the support level one more time. After this, the price rose to the trend line, then at once dropped back and some time traded near this level. At the moment, the price continues to trades near this level, and in my mind, XAUUSD will decline to the support level and then start to grow to the trend line, Therefore I set my goal at 2670 points, which coincided with this line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold can exit from pennant and rise to 2700 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price rebounded from the support line and later dropped to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. After this, the price made impulse down to the support line, breaking the 2720 level, and then tried to grow, but failed and continued to decline next. Then Gold reached the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, and broke it too, after which Gold dropped to the support line. Next, the price turned around and started to grow inside the upward pennant, where it soon reached the 2615 level and even broke it one more time. After this, XAU continued to grow until it reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance line of the pennant, and then turned around and made a correction movement. Price fell to the support level, some time traded near this level, and then rose to the resistance line of the pennant, but later it rebounded and fell back to the 2615 support level. Recently it started to grow and at the moment I think that the price can correct to support line and then rebound up, thereby exiting from the pennant pattern. Next, Gold will continue to grow, so, I set my TP at 2700 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
