GOLD Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2788.3
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2802.9
Recommended Stop Loss - 2780.8
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Metals
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move.
Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level.
Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66.
On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk.
The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside.
Gold
Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected.
The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy.
During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today!
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DeGRAM | GOLD ready for a declineGOLD is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic resistance, which has already acted as a pullback point twice.
The chart has already reached the upper boundary of the channel and dropped below the resistance level after testing the 62% retracement level.
On the 1H Timeframe, the indicators show that XAUUSD has started to work out the formed bearish divergence.
We expect a decline.
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XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price could rise toward our sell entry at 3092.56, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3072, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension.
The stop loss will be placed at 3120.64, a swing high resistance.
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Detailed Analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) – Double Top BreakoutThe chart represents a technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe (1D). A Double Top pattern, one of the most reliable bearish reversal formations, is developing. This signals a potential downtrend, with key price levels and trendlines confirming weakness in bullish momentum. Below is a full breakdown of the pattern, price action, and trading setup.
1️⃣ Pattern Formation: Double Top – Bearish Reversal
A Double Top pattern occurs when the price reaches a resistance level twice, failing to break higher. It indicates a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one.
🔹 Characteristics of the Double Top in This Chart:
First Peak (Top 1 - Resistance at ~$34.57):
The price made a strong move upward, reaching a high near $34.57.
Selling pressure at this level pushed the price downward, forming a support level near $30 (Neckline).
Pullback & Temporary Support (~$30 Neckline):
Buyers stepped in at the support zone, causing a bounce back towards resistance.
This level acted as strong demand, preventing further decline temporarily.
Second Peak (Top 2 - Rejection at Resistance Again):
Price attempted to break above the previous peak but failed.
This failure to form a higher high confirms the presence of strong sellers.
The second rejection strengthens the resistance level at $34.57, signaling exhaustion in buying momentum.
Break of the Trendline Support (Bearish Shift):
A previously ascending trendline (black dashed line) was providing support for the uptrend.
Price broke below this trendline, indicating a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Trading Setup
🔸 Resistance Zone (~$34.57 - Stop Loss Area)
This is the major resistance level, tested twice and confirmed as a supply zone.
A move above $34.57 would invalidate the bearish pattern, making this an ideal stop-loss level.
🔹 Support Level / Neckline (~$30 - Breakdown Confirmation)
The neckline acts as a critical level. If the price breaks below $30, the Double Top formation is confirmed.
If the price retests this level from below and rejects (fails to reclaim it as support), it becomes a strong short entry signal.
🔻 Target Price (Projected Move - $23.01)
The target is based on the measured move rule of a Double Top:
Distance from resistance ($34.57) to neckline ($30) ≈ $4.57.
Projecting this same distance downward gives a target of ~$23.01.
This aligns with historical demand zones, increasing the probability of price reaching this level.
3️⃣ Trading Plan: Short Setup Execution
🔽 Short Entry (Breakdown Confirmation Below $30)
Ideal entry point is after the neckline breaks and confirms resistance upon a retest.
A breakdown with strong volume enhances the validity of the setup.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement (Above $34.57 Resistance Level)
Placing a stop above the second peak ($34.57) ensures protection against invalidation.
If price moves back above this level, the pattern fails, indicating a potential return to bullish momentum.
🎯 Target Price ($23.01) – Measured Move Projection
The price target aligns with the pattern structure and historical support levels.
Traders can take partial profits at intermediary levels ($27–$26) before full target realization.
4️⃣ Additional Confirmation Factors – Confluence for Bearish Bias
1️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI & MACD Bearish Signals
If RSI (Relative Strength Index) drops below 50, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
A MACD bearish crossover (signal line crossing below the MACD line) would further validate the downtrend.
2️⃣ Volume Analysis – Breakout Confirmation
A high volume breakout below $30 confirms selling pressure.
Low-volume breakdowns can lead to false breakouts, making volume a crucial factor to watch.
3️⃣ Fundamental Factors – Macro Outlook on Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices are influenced by interest rates, inflation, and USD strength.
If USD strengthens, silver could face more selling pressure, aligning with this bearish technical setup.
Any hawkish monetary policy statements could accelerate the downside movement.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
✔️ Ideal Risk-Reward Ratio
Risk: Stop loss at $34.57 (~4.5% above entry)
Reward: Target at $23.01 (~23% move)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:5 (highly favorable for short trades)
⚠️ Bullish Invalidations – When to Avoid the Trade?
If Silver reclaims $34.57 and holds above, the pattern fails.
A false breakout scenario could occur if price breaks below $30 but quickly moves back above.
Watching for bullish divergence on indicators like RSI before entering a short position is recommended.
Final Conclusion: Bearish Bias with Strong Downside Potential
📉 Summary of the Bearish Case:
✔️ Double Top pattern confirms a bearish reversal if the neckline breaks.
✔️ Break of ascending trendline signals increasing seller control.
✔️ Key levels: Stop-loss above $34.57 | Entry below $30 | Target $23.01.
✔️ Additional confluence: RSI, MACD, and volume confirmation strengthen the trade setup.
🚀 If price action aligns with this analysis, this setup presents a high-probability short opportunity.
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🔥
GOLD/XAUUSD SWING UPDATESHello folks, Gold are on a trend right now. Waiting for this zone for shorts? 3180 might be the high or 3200.
The Initial targets at 3066 zone.
This idea base on my previous idea on fibonacci, Full updates once price goes 3066 zone.
Idea on the new highs maybe later on High impact news.
The idea here is short.
Trade at your own risk.
Follow for more.
I will update once this zones mitigated. Good luck! pewwpeww
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2% Fibo lvl 3050.Dear colleagues, the price has been in an upward movement for quite a long time and I believe .that it is time for a correction in the “2” wave.
I think it is possible that there may be a small update of the maximum of the top of wave “1” to 3176.771, then I expect a correction to the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 3050.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders, if the price updates the maximum.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,101.76
Target Level: 2,970.42
Stop Loss: 3,188.94
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Not Even Gold Escaped the Volatility of Liberation DayWe finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Market Update (No Buy/Sell Bias)🧠 Structural Recap: Why Gold Did What It Did
🔄 Mitigation & Reaction Zones Review
✅ Premium Supply Zone @ 3144–3160 (H1-H4)
— Price tapped into this key premium area and sharply rejected it. This indicates a successful mitigation of that supply zone.
— This zone previously aligned with the weak high and premium structure, adding to its weight.
🟦 Mid-Range FVGs @ 3120–3130 (H1)
— This area acted as the bounce point today after price wicked down aggressively.
— The strong wick from 3086–3144 confirms buyer interest post-news, filling imbalance and mitigating prior demand (on H1).
🟫 Mitigated Demand Zone @ 3086–3096 (H1-H4)
— This demand zone was pierced and fully tapped. We saw a textbook bounce with strong reaction, suggesting the zone is now mitigated.
— A notable EQ + strong candle from this zone created bullish displacement.
🔵 Unmitigated Discount Demand @ 3054–3080 (H4)
— This remains a key untouched demand. Price wicked close to it but didn’t tap.
— If we get another push down, this is still valid and unmitigated.
🧱 Below 3050: Unmitigated Macro Zone (D1)
— The large OB/FVG combo around 2970–3030 still hasn’t been mitigated. This remains untouched liquidity in a deeper pullback.
📰 News Review — April 3, 2025
Trump’s Conference Commentary
— Hawkish rhetoric around economic strategy but no clear monetary focus.
— Mixed signals caused initial DXY strength, but later market corrected.
US Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
— Slightly worse-than-expected numbers, showing cooling economy signs.
— This supported XAU recovery post-drop as rate hike sentiment weakened.
Geopolitical Noise (Middle East)
— Continued tensions are keeping safe-haven demand intact, especially below 3100.
🧠 TL;DR
Zones like 3144–3160 and 3086–3096 are now mitigated.
3054–3080 and 2970–3030 remain unmitigated, future bounce areas.
Today’s volatility was news-driven, but liquidity still sits lower.
We’re currently in mid-mitigation flow, with the market respecting PA zones well.
Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver!On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities.
Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions.
How could NFP impact the markets?
• Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound.
• U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD.
• Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
• Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy.
Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: SMC Trading point update
This chart is a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown
1. Ascending Channel:
The price is moving within an upward channel, showing a bullish trend.
Higher highs and higher lows confirm the uptrend.
2. Support and Resistance Zones:
Yellow Boxes: Key support zones where price previously consolidated before moving higher.
Red Arrows: Marking resistance zones where the price faced rejection.
Green Arrows: Indicating support levels where the price bounced.
3. Current Price Action:
Price recently dropped to a key support zone (around $3,050).
A bullish reaction is expected from this level.
If support holds, the price may continue the uptrend toward the target of $3,186.
4. Projected Move:
The black zigzag line suggests a potential bounce from support.
If the support level holds, price could move back up within the channel.
Mr SMC Trading point
Conclusion:
If price respects the support zone, there could be a good buying opportunity.
A break below the support zone would signal potential bearish movement.
Monitoring price action around the yellow zone is crucial for confirming direction.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow )
GOLD - 1H UPDATE
Gold dropped nicely today, in a strong impulsive move which normally indicates a reversal. We also saw price touch $3,057, but we did say price also needs to close below that level which it never done. There's 2 possible plays on its next move;
1. Price just carries on dropping lower in the next week as expected.
2. Gold starts to consolidate, creating a 'redistribution schematic' for a bigger sell off. But this could also mean Gold creating 1 more new ATH.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
After completing our 1H, 4H and daily chart idea, we now only have our long term weekly chart idea remaining . We will update new Multi timeframe route maps in preparation for next week on Sunday
Last week we stated that we still had the gap left open at 3094, after candle break above the channel half-line and ema5 lock.
-This gap is now complete!
We will now need this weeks candle to finish and close and/or ema5 lock above 3094 to open the gap above.
We also still have a detachment to ema5 lagging potentially due for further correction. We will look for ema5 lock or body close above or below the levels to confirm the next mid to long term range.
This is the beauty of our channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gbpcad SellPrice has been making LL pointing to strength in downtrend and now price closed below the oh so very important 1.85172. the stop i wouldve like to put it above the last high but its ok im still is comfortable with it due to the volume nice scalp based on how fast the trade should hit tp or sl.
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (02.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3077
2nd Support – 3048
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