Metals
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 17-21 FEB, 20251. Double Top Formation:
First Peak: The price reached the resistance zone ($2,940) and got rejected.
Second Peak: The price attempted to break this level again but faced rejection, forming the second top.
Neckline (Support Zone at $2,875 - $2,885): The price is now testing this area, which acts as a key decision point.
2. Bearish Confirmation (If Breakdown Happens):
If the price breaks below $2,875 and closes below this level, it confirms the double top.
The next potential downside target would be around $2,800 - $2,810 (measured move from the top to neckline).
3. Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Rebound (Invalidates Double Top):
If the price holds $2,875 - $2,885 and bounces up, it could retest $2,940 - $2,960 again.
This would turn the pattern into a fakeout, leading to another bullish move.
❌ Bearish Breakdown (Confirms Double Top):
A clean break and close below $2,875 signals more downside.
Target: $2,810 (or lower if momentum continues).
4. Trading Strategy:
Short Entry (Bearish):
If price breaks below $2,875, enter a sell position.
Stop-loss: Above $2,890 (to avoid fakeouts).
Take profit: $2,810 (or trail SL if trend continues).
Long Entry (Bullish Reversal):
If price holds $2,875 - $2,885 and forms bullish confirmation (like a hammer or engulfing candle).
Stop-loss: Below $2,870 to protect from a fake breakout.
Take profit: $2,940 - $2,960.
Final Thought: If this is truly a double top, a break below the neckline could trigger a bigger correction. But if buyers step in, it could flip into a breakout-retest strategy instead.
EURUSD Analysis... and MORE!Here is some analysis on EURUSD, USDCHF, and a couple of other things.
I'm expecting higher prices on EURUSD and likewise some lower prices on USDCHF. I've already entered some positions, but there may be opportunities for more re-entries down the road as we may have some days or weeks to get to my targets.
I use ICT concepts along with my own revelations. I hope you find it useful.
Happy trading.
- R2F Trading
Gold - Exceptional StrengthGold is clearly in an impulse wave that I feel is the wave five of a larger third wave. Generally, a fifth wave in commodities is often the biggest. While in normal trading vehicle, the third wave is the largest. So either way, momentum remains strong.
GDX however is not as strong but my expectations are for this to change. Recent miner financials have showed that high gold prices along with lower energy costs result in strong positive cash flow. There are too many bargains in the miners sector and as cash levels increase, look for M&A opportunities.
GOLD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the GOLD pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 2,807.382 level.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.6819
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.7856
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 4.5406
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
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GOLD Approaching New Highs | Will It Hit $3000 Soon?GOLD Analysis | February 20, 2025
Gold continues its strong uptrend, pushing above the ATH and confirming its bullish momentum as we mentioned before. The price is currently trading around 2951, holding above the pivot line of 2935, indicating stability within the breakout structure.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as 2935 holds as support, the price is expected to continue its movement toward the resistance zone of 2956 - 2975.
A strong breakout above 2975 could signal further bullish momentum, with the next key target around 3000.
Bearish Scenario:
A rejection from the ATH could lead to a retest of 2935 and 2918.
If a 4H candle closes below 2918, this may trigger a correction toward 2873 before any potential rebound.
📌 Key Levels:
🔹 Pivot Point: 2956
🔹 Resistance Levels: 2975, 2985, 3000
🔹 Support Levels: 2935, 2918, 2873
💬 Will Gold sustain its momentum and reach new highs, or is a correction coming? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
GOLD's rise has been steady, limited by its all-time peakDuring the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy.
Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates.
The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales.
If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase.
CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish.
The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction.
To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD
Resistance: 2,942USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2955
→Take Profit 1 2943
↨
→Take Profit 2 2937
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2900
→Take Profit 1 2912
↨
→Take Profit 2 2918
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-20 : Rotation PatternSorry for my delay this morning. Everything is fine over here - just a bit hectic this morning, and I had to drive my son to his work at 530am - which interrupted my plans.
OK, so here we go.
This video helps to organize my analysis/thinking into more clearly presented data for my followers. I use the Fibonacci Price Theory as a basis for all my analysis. On top of that, I use other techniques (anchor bars, my SPY Cycle Patterns, and my custom indexes) to help identify when and where opportunities exist for the best trades.
I've been getting comments related to my labeling these videos as Bullish or Bearish which may go against the primary trend direction presented on the charts. So, now I've added a TEXT LABEL that tells you what every chart is doing on a Short, Intermediate, and Long-term basis.
This will help all of you follow my analysis/thinking going forward (I hope).
Today's Rotation Pattern suggests the markets will slide into a sideways price rotation phase.
This rotation could be a stalling pattern after the recent rally to new ATHs.
I'm still very cautious of a breakdown/pullback in trend after this move higher. As I keep saying, I don't believe the markets have sufficient momentum to continue a massive rally phase. And I really believe this new ATH level is a BULL TRAP - setting up longs to jump into this rally mode before a bigger pullback/breakdown takes place.
Gold and Silver are struggling to move higher with a fairly broad rotating range - but they are still pushing higher.
I believe Gold and Silver will make a big move higher over the next 30+ days. So, be prepared for volatility - but stick with long trades for metals as I believe Gold will rally to levels above $3100 very quickly.
Bitcoin could be shifting into a new Excess Phase Peak pattern off recent lows. The FPT trends for Bitcoin are still BEARISH, but we are starting to see a base setup that may become a new Excess Phase Peak low.
Watch this video and please comment if you have any questions.
Again, sorry for my delay this morning.
Get some..
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Gold’s Rally Continues – Next ATH?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) again managed to form a new All-Time High(ATH) . Are you used to this?
Gold has already managed to break the Uptrend line . But as long as Gold is above 100_SMA(1-hour) , we can hope for the continuation of the upward trend .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to have succeeded in completing the main wave 3, so that the main wave 3 was extended .
I expect Gold to start rising again after a temporary decline from the levels I charted and create a new All-Time High(ATH) .
Note: If Gold can go below 100_SMA(1-hour) again, we should expect more dumps.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to area of 2972.207.Colleagues, if you look at this upward movement, what can you say? Of course the lower order wave “3” continued and updated its top. This means that we can expect 2 variants of events:
1) Price will continue the development of wave “3”.
2) Wave “4” will make a correction and then wave “5” will start.
The target is the area of 2972.207.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD steadies at high levels despite FOMC looks toughDuring the early morning trading session on Thursday (February 20), spot gold prices suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices stabilized above 2,940 USD/ounce, approaching the historic high set in the previous trading day.
Trump just issued another tariff threat
On Wednesday evening local time, US President Trump reiterated that he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
“I will announce tariffs next month or sooner on autos, semiconductors, chips, pharmaceuticals, lumber and a number of other items that have a significant impact on the United States,” Trump said.
On Tuesday, Trump said he intended to impose tariffs of "about 25%" on autos, along with similar tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Earlier this month, the United States announced a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, but the Fed meeting minutes sent gold prices down a bit
Gold prices hit an all-time high in early trading on Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs rattled investors, but later retreated from record highs as the dollar strengthened following a tough Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
"Participants said that, as long as the economy remains near maximum employment, they would like to see inflation progress further before making additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate," minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 28-29 meeting said.
Assessment: The meeting minutes highlight the cautious approach of policymakers after they cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the final months of last year. Some officials have said they want to see inflation continue to fall toward the Fed's 2% target before supporting another rate cut.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting showed concerns about inflation risks, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Gold prices decreased after the Fed meeting minutes, but in general this is not a significant impact because the market is still accepting risks from President Trump.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold is up 0.30% on the day, temporarily in front of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension considered the nearest resistance.
Once gold breaks above $2,946, it will likely continue to renew its all-time high with a target then around $2,971 in the short term.
The intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,921USD
Resistance: 2,942 – 2,971USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2975
→Take Profit 1 2963
↨
→Take Profit 2 2957
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2905
→Take Profit 1 2917
↨
→Take Profit 2 2923
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish Drop ?Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 2942.88, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 2928.91, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 2955.79, above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Latest gold update today: Price continues to increase stronglyJames Hello everyone!
Currently, gold prices are entering a bullish consolidation phase as Trump tariffs weigh on risk sentiment. The US dollar is struggling to hold despite the dovish Fed Minutes as US Treasury yields decline. Currently, gold prices are waiting for acceptance above $2,950 as the daily technical setup favors buyers.
As mentioned on the 1-hour chart, an ascending trend line has formed along with the support of the 34 and 89 EMAs, suggesting further upside potential for gold without any significant reversal.
0217-0221 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOKHello traders,
When events develop in an illogical manner, emotions and manipulation are often the first two factors to consider.
1. The "illogical" phenomenon behind last Friday's U.S. stock market surge
Last night, U.S. stocks experienced a significant rally despite lacking fundamental support. However, from the perspective of economic data and market dynamics, this surge appears to lack rationality.
1. Inflationary pressures are significantly increasing
In January, the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3.5% (higher than the expected 3.2%), while the core PPI inflation rate reached 3.6% (higher than the expected 3.3%).
This marks the highest PPI inflation rate since February 2023. More importantly, this data confirms that the previous 0.5% month-on-month increase in CPI was not due to seasonal factors but rather a reflection of persistent inflationary pressures.
2. Employment data indicates an overheated economy
Last week, initial jobless claims came in at 213K, lower than the expected 216K, while continuing claims reached 1850K, below the expected 1882K.
This demonstrates that the labor market remains strong, and the "hot" employment data further reinforces concerns about an overheating economy.
3. Rate cut expectations are delayed
With CPI, PPI, and employment data all exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have been pushed further back. Currently, the market generally anticipates the earliest rate cuts to occur in September 2025.
Even worse, if the Fed's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to be released today, also shows an increase, the market may reprice rate hike expectations. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken out of its symmetrical triangle, with technical analysis suggesting its next target could be 5%, further strengthening expectations that the Fed may resume rate hikes instead of continuing to cut rates.
4. Liquidity is shrinking
On Thursday (February 13), the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage dropped to $67.82 billion, the lowest level since April 2021, indicating that market liquidity is rapidly contracting.
From this data, it is evident that U.S. stocks lack fundamental support for their rally. However, under such circumstances, the significant rise in U.S. stocks raises questions about whether emotional trading and market manipulation are at play.
---
2. Crowded markets: Risk appetite reaches extremes
Scott Rubner, Managing Director and Tactical Expert at Goldman Sachs Global Markets, published a report following last night's U.S. stock market rally, bluntly stating that this is his final bullish email on U.S. stocks for this quarter. He pointed out:
> “Everyone is in this pool, including retail investors, 401(k) retirement fund inflows, beginning-of-year fund allocations, and corporations. The dynamics of fund flow demand are rapidly changing, and negative seasonality is approaching.”
This suggests that the market is already too crowded, and the momentum for buying on dips is rapidly diminishing. The following data further confirms the extreme crowding in the market:
1. Assets in leveraged long equity ETFs reached a record high of $95 billion last week, compared to $67.6 billion during the stock market frenzy of 2021.
2. Since the third quarter of 2022, the total assets of funds using derivatives for long bets have tripled.
3. Assets in leveraged short equity ETFs decreased by $13.3 billion, falling to $8.5 billion. In other words, for every $1 in leveraged short ETFs, there is a record $11 in leveraged long ETFs.
The level of crowding in market trading has reached an extreme, or even "crazy," state. This extreme risk appetite has planted hidden risks for the future trajectory of the market.
---
3. Why did gold pull back?
In such an extreme market environment for U.S. stocks, gold, as a safe-haven asset, failed to reach new highs last Friday and instead retreated. The reasons behind this phenomenon mainly include the following:
1. A stronger U.S. dollar
Due to rising expectations that the Fed may resume rate hikes, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a significant rebound last Friday. Gold prices typically have a negative correlation with the dollar, and a stronger dollar directly suppressed gold's upward momentum.
2. Rising real interest rates
The upward movement in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield and the market's repricing of the Fed's monetary policy caused real interest rates to rise. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, is highly sensitive to real interest rates. Rising real interest rates weaken gold's appeal.
3. Market sentiment shifting toward risk assets
Despite the market's uncertainties, the strong performance of U.S. stocks attracted substantial capital inflows into risk assets. Increased risk appetite among investors reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
4. Technical resistance
From a technical analysis perspective, gold faced significant resistance near its previous highs. Profit-taking by bulls further exacerbated gold's pullback.
---
4. Technical Analysis
Weekly Chart
It is evident that gold has entered a period of consolidation near its top. Last week closed with a bearish candle, forming a multi-candle evening star pattern on the weekly chart, which is a bearish reversal signal. For the upcoming week, the trading strategy will focus on identifying short opportunities on lower timeframes.
Four-Hour Chart
The five-wave structure appears to have ended, with the final wave reaching higher and broader levels than previously anticipated.
Considering the gradual formation of a top structure, next week's trading plan will focus on short opportunities below the four-hour EMA.
---
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Long (BUY LIMIT)Gold is in a strong uptrend on the Daily chart, making higher highs and showing strong momentum. The RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions, but this is typical in strong trends. The MACD is bullish and confirms momentum.
On the 15-minute chart, Gold is consolidating after a strong rally, suggesting a continuation higher. The RSI is neutral (49.33), giving room for more upside.
On the 3-minute chart, Gold is experiencing a pullback, creating an opportunity to buy at a better price. The MACD is near neutral, signaling that a bullish reversal could be setting up.
Trade Setup
• Entry: 2936 (Near recent consolidation area)
• Stop Loss (SL): 2928 (Below recent support, limiting downside risk)
• Take Profit (TP): 2952 (Near next resistance level, maintaining a 2:1 RRR)
Fundamental Justification
• Gold is bullish due to inflationary concerns and continued demand for safe-haven assets.
• Interest rate expectations remain dovish, supporting Gold’s strength.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
GOLD Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
And the price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 2940$ which reinfrces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further
Bullish continuation
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Gold XAUUSD Intra-day Move 19.02.2025📊 Market Structure & Price Action Analysis:
Uptrend Confirmation: Gold has been respecting the ascending channel since $2,880, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Key Support Zone: $2,923 - $2,925, which aligns with the trendline support and has held twice.
Rejection from Resistance: $2,939, suggesting a temporary pullback before another bullish leg.
Potential Buy Zone: If price revisits $2,923 - $2,925 and holds, it presents a good long opportunity.
📈 Intraday Scalping Trade Signal (BUY Setup)
✅ Buy Entry: $2,923 - $2,925 (Wait for confirmation with bullish price action)
🎯 Take Profit (TP1): $2,939 (Short-term target)
🎯 Take Profit (TP2): $2,946 - $2,950 (Channel resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $2,915 (Trendline breakdown invalidates setup)
⚖ Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 or higher
🕵 Confirmation Checklist Before Entry:
✅ Bullish Candlestick Formation (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar at support)
✅ Trendline & Support Hold at $2,923 - $2,925
✅ Volume Increase on Buy Pressure
✅ DXY (Dollar Index) Weakness for Additional Confirmation
⚠ Risk Management:
Exit immediately if price closes below $2,915, as it would indicate a trendline breakdown.
Move SL to Breakeven once TP1 is hit.
Avoid Chasing Entry if price already starts moving higher without touching the buy zone.
📌 Trading Tip: Monitor gold's reaction at $2,923 - $2,925; a strong bounce confirms bullish strength. 🚀
Like, follow and comment your concern.
Gold Market analysis and short-term forecastsIn the early Asian session on Thursday, gold fluctuated in a narrow range, and the current price is around 2943. After setting a new record on Wednesday, it fell back. Although US President Trump's latest tariff threat made investors nervous, the US dollar continued to rebound, prompting some longs to take profits.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that the potential impact of Trump's policies has caused the Federal Reserve to worry about rising inflation. Policymakers generally believe that changes in trade policies, immigration policies and geopolitical risks may push up inflation, and companies generally said that they will pass on the cost of import tariffs by raising prices. This uncertainty makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the short term.
More importantly, Trump asked "dictator" Zelensky to act quickly to ensure peace, otherwise there will be no country to govern. The Kremlin said that Putin and Trump may meet before the end of February. Concerns about the geopolitical situation have cooled down, suppressing the safe-haven buying demand for international gold investment!
On this trading day, we need to continue to pay attention to Trump's dynamic news and news related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 15 will be released. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, St. Louis Fed President Musallem and Fed Governor Kugler will give speeches, which gold investors need to pay attention to.
Gold prices have a very good upside as expected, and broke through the high point of 2942 that has not been reached many times in the previous period. The NY market fell and rebounded strongly to close above 2930, forming a wide range of fluctuations at the high of 2918/2946. The current highest gold is around 2947. Although there was a slight decline in the US market yesterday, it has been repaired at the opening today. Therefore, the basic principle is temporarily maintained, and the rise will not guess the top.
At present, gold is in a slow rise. Judging from the current trend, the bull market pattern has not been destroyed. From the technical point of view, after the rise in the first three trading days of this week, the daily line has been above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, forming an absolute strength. In the short cycle, if there is an effective adjustment today, you can continue to go long if the trend is maintained. Today's trading callback mainly participates in the trend of low-long, and the high-altitude layout is coordinated!
Starting this week, the gold price remained above $2,900 per ounce, but the relative strength index (RSI) showed that it was in the overbought area. The gold daily K-line closed higher continuously, and the weekly line was also controlled by the physical K-line. The resistance seen above was only the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger band at 2948, and the upper rail of the monthly Bollinger band at 2960. The upper rail of the daily Bollinger band even extended upward to 2975!
The daily line maintained a unilateral rise, and the MA5-MA10 moving average maintained a golden cross upward; the weekly line was a strong pattern of seven consecutive rises, strongly opening the upper rail space of the Bollinger band, and the bullish sentiment was high. Then the intraday situation is strong, and the operation still maintains a bullish idea of callback.
Key points:
First support: 2926, second support: 2910, third support: 2903
First resistance: 2948, second resistance: 2956, third resistance: 2968
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2923-2926, SL: 2915, TP2950-2960;
SELL: 2956-2959, SL: 2968, TP: 2940-2930;
Minutes of the Federal Open Market CommitteeCommittee participants began discussions related to their review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework. This review is focused on two specific areas: the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which presents the Committee's approach to the conduct of monetary policy, and the Committee's policy communication practices. The Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will be retained and is not a focus of the review.
The manager noted that inflation offsets overall increased slightly. However, both the survey measures of inflation expectations and prices in the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market remained fairly consistent with predictions that inflation would return to the Committee's 2% inflation target.
In money markets, the manager noted that a quarter-point lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate in December was fully carried over to other short-term rates. Additionally, the 5 basis point technical adjustment to the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) offering rate made in December appears to have been passed through almost entirely to the repurchase agreement (repo) rate.