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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-2: Tmp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move a bit higher after finding support in early trading. The one BIG event over the past 5+ trading days is the SPY rallying above the Ultimate High level - breaking into a confirmed Bullish price trend. This is part of what I'm trying to teach you: the patterns, techniques, thinking, and logic behind my decisions are based on mechanical price structures/processes. Once you understand the structures and price patterns, it is simple to try to understand. Fibonacci Price Theory teaches you to follow price as the ultimate indicator - measuring and marking ultimate, unique, and standout highs/lows as trigger points. AnchorBar theory teaches us to watch for breakaway or breakdown bars as precise indications of price trend direction/momentum. The Excess Phase Peak patterns represent a more nuanced price pattern that can assist us in determining the current "phase" of the markets and how we can expect prices to react to that phase. If you understand these three concepts, I believe you, as a trader, can unlock any price action and determine what type of trend we are currently in for any symbol/interval and where your opportunity lies for potential trades. I will continue to delve further into trading and teaching techniques to reinforce these techniques in the future. Stay cautious as the markets are still struggling to find a post-election trend. The Anomaly Event is still likely, but the probability of such an event has fallen to about 30-40% overall. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
HelenP. I Gold can grow a little and then drop to support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some time ago price fell to the support level, which coincided with the support zone, and then turned around and started to grow. In a short time price rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and even entered to this area, and some time traded inside. Later Gold rose to the trend line and then started to decline. Price quickly fell lower 2725 level, breaking it, and continued to decline to the support level. When the price reached the 2615 level, it broke this level and fell until to 2536 points, after which turned around and in a short time rose to the 2615 level and broke it again. Then price continued to move up to the trend line and when it reached this line, it turned around and made an impulse down to support the level back. But a few moments ago it started to move up. So, at the moment, I expect that XAUUSD can rise a little more and then turn around and fall to the support level. That's why I set my goal at 2615 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
3
GOLD Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for GOLD. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 2,643.39. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 2,619.84 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by SignalProvider
1
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
XAUUSD Still a great long-term buy opportunity targeting +$3000Gold (XAUUSD) has been following our Bull Cycle projection since 4 months back (August 05, see chart below) having risen an incredible +15%, from 2424 to almost 2800: As you can see by the chart we constructed back then, despite the recent correction in November, the yellow metal is still a buy opportunity as this was only a technical pull-back based on our Bear - Bull Cycle model. We have first come up with this technical pattern on April 04 2024 and the basis was the similarities (so far) of the July 2016 - August 2020 Bear-to-Bull Cycle with the Bear Cycle that followed the August 2020 Top and so far the current Bull Cycle. As you can see, once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned to a Support at the end of the Bear Cycle, it held up until the Bull Cycle's Top and every pull-back was a buy opportunity. More specifically, the current November correction looks very similar to the COVID flash crash on March 2020 that touched the 1W MA50 and immediately rebounded. The key pattern here lies on the 1W RSI. As you see, once that broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, while Gold was on the Bull Cycle's Channel Up, it started to decline inside a Channel Down. That technical Bearish Divergence (RSI Channel Down against Gold's Channel Up) affected the price on the 3rd top (Lower High), which was the Cycle's peak. Right now it appears that the 1W RSI has (or is near) bottomed and is staring that final Bullish Leg to the Lower High that will form Gold's new Bull Cycle Top. Technically this should be after April 2025 and if it is formed again upon the completion of a +85.42% rally from the Bear Cycle's first bottom and at most the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, then we are still expecting a $3100 target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meetingTVC:USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend. This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices. Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices. On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides. Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production. OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. . In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area. As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term. In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
XAG/USD Analysis: Silver Price Balances at Key SupportXAG/USD Analysis: Silver Price Balances at Key Support As reflected in the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver this morning is trading near $30.2, just above a critical support zone formed by: → The psychological level of $30.00; → The lower boundary of the ascending channel. As indicated by the blue arrows, this lower boundary has consistently provided support, enabling bullish reversals in silver prices throughout 2024. However, the price is currently below the 200-day moving average (MA), which is trending downward. An examination of price action in November reveals a lack of sustained growth following two breaches of the psychological level. As the red arrows illustrate: → On the first occasion, the price encountered resistance near $31.50; → On the second, it failed to rise above $31. This could indicate weak demand, increasing the risk of a bearish breakout below the key support zone, potentially breaking the 2024 uptrend. Meanwhile, analysts remain optimistic, citing strong fundamentals. According to media reports: → ANZ Research analysts forecast silver prices reaching $35.4 in 2025; → JP Morgan analysts predict silver at $36; → Saxo Bank analysts anticipate prices climbing to $40 by 2025. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by FXOpen
1
XAUUSD - Mining in China Vs GoldGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its Neroli channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the limited supply and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the gold neroli movement will provide us with the next opportunity to buy it. Chinese officials have announced the discovery of a huge deposit of high-quality gold ore, estimated to be worth around $83 billion, and may be the largest known deposit of the precious metal in the world. Chinese scientists have discovered a "supergiant" deposit of high-quality gold ore near some of the country's existing gold mines. This massive deposit, which could be the largest single reservoir of this precious metal remaining anywhere on Earth, is worth billions of dollars. Representatives of the Geological Bureau of Hunan Province (GBHP) told Chinese state media on November 20 that the new deposits were discovered in the Wangu gold field in northeastern Hunan province. Workers identified more than 40 gold veins containing about 330 tons of gold down to a depth of 6,600 feet (2,000 meters). However, using 3D computer models, mining experts have predicted that as much as 1,100 tons of gold – roughly eight times the weight of the Statue of Liberty – may be hidden as deep as 9,800 feet (3,000 meters). If true, the total reserves are likely to be worth about 600 billion yuan ($83 billion). Mark Chandler, referring to the poor performance of gold after the recent drop, said: "The price of gold has not yet recovered even half of its decline and remains below the level of $2,663.40. If the U.S. employment report at the end of next week is stronger than expected (with around 200,000 new jobs forecast), speculation about a Fed rate cut in December is likely to ease. This can help strengthen the dollar and interest rates. However, US policies that threaten to derail the international order have encouraged some foreign central banks to continue hoarding more gold. Employment data will be the centerpiece of the economic calendar next week and is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of markets. This set of reports includes JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the key nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Each of these reports can provide clues about the state of the labor market and the Federal Reserve's future decisions. Along with these employment data, ISM purchasing managers' indicators are also in the focus of traders' attention. The index of the production sector is published on Monday and the index of the service sector is published on Wednesday. Additionally, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index, an important measure of economic sentiment and consumer purchasing power, will be released on Friday. Wednesday will be a key opportunity for markets to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of the Federal Reserve's media silence. Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated conversation at the New York Times DealBook, an event that is likely to provide clues about the Fed's future policy.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Gold --> Interest in this metal is growingOANDA:XAUUSD On the basis of support from the dollar correction and the local maximum update. The liquidity is decreasing and Friday in the US also plays an important role in the market... On H1, gold holds within the boundaries of a local bullish channel on the basis of a weak dollar, mainly due to the inflation regime... In addition, the dovish sentiment from the Fed regarding interest rate policies continues to support gold prices, however, this is not a topic of interest at the moment. On the other hand, buyers' attention is shifting to the policies of the new US administration, which may impact the economies, causing central banks to increase their gold reserves. This may spur a sharp increase in central banks' gold trading. So, since we have a bullish run, an ascending channel and strong fundamentals, in this case, it is reasonable to consider buying only, which can only be done from around the support area (FVG) and a breakout of the resistance level. The expected gold price increase is 2678 and 2694 is getting closer :)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
XAUUSD H1 | Bearish Continuation?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 2649.37 that aligns with 61.8% Fibo retracement, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 2622.57, a swing low support level. The stop loss will be at 2664.73, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
Analysis of the Downward Trend in Gold Prices This WeekGold prices remained stable above $2,600 in the past week, primarily supported by increasing geopolitical tensions. However, after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, gold still faced pressure to limit its price increase, as the U.S. dollar is expected to be supported by Trump's win. Regarding gold's recent recovery, after the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data earlier this week, which met expectations, market anticipation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen, driving gold prices higher. Currently, the market is pricing in about a 66% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a significant increase from just over 50% a week ago. Geopolitical tensions in Europe, caused by Russia's missile attack on Ukraine, have also provided support for safe-haven assets like gold. The Israeli military announced on Thursday that their air force had struck a facility in southern Lebanon used by Hezbollah to store medium-range missiles, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. On Thursday, Russia launched its second major attack this month on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in the country. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is generally seen as a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical instability. Gold prices have dropped about 3% this month, hitting a two-month low on November 14. This is mainly due to the strengthening U.S. Dollar since Trump's election, and his tariff policies, which are seen as likely to push inflation higher, thus slowing down the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. Next week, the U.S. will release key economic data, including job openings, ADP employment reports, and non-farm payrolls, which could provide direction on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Important Economic Data to Watch Next Week Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Technical Outlook for XAUUSD (Gold Price) Gold is attempting to recover but remains limited by the 50% Fibonacci level and the EMA21, as pointed out in yesterday's publication. In terms of overall structure, gold still leans towards a bearish outlook, with the main trend indicated by the price channel (a) and resistance from the EMA21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also not yet surpassed the 50 level. Therefore, in terms of trend and momentum, gold is more likely to face downward pressure rather than rise. As long as gold stays within the price channel (a), it does not meet the technical conditions for a long-term price increase, so any rallies should be viewed as short-term recoveries. In the short term, if gold drops below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, the next target for a decline would be around the $2,600 level. In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold on the daily chart is bearish, with the following key levels to watch: Support: $2,634 – $2,606 – $2,600 Resistance: $2,663 – $2,693 However, traders must note that in the context of geopolitical conflicts, technical structures can be broken very quickly due to sudden, impactful events. Therefore, the risk will be higher in the short term. This concludes the article. Henry wishes for a healthy, joyful, and happy weekend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Henrybillion
1
The focus of the gold market recentlyThe focus of the gold market recently has been developments in the United States after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. In a short period of time, the future cabinet list was announced with all candidates. is considered to have impressive achievements. In addition, Mr. Donald Trump pledged to sharply increase taxes on America's three largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. Economists say Mr. Trump's overall tariff plans could be the most damaging economic policy, causing inflation and reorganizing global supply chains. According to experts, the short-term gold market is difficult to predict. However, fluctuations in gold prices create buying opportunities for investors. Regarding the medium-term trend, Colin Cieszynski, expert at SIA Wealth Management, believes that the support price of 2,600 USD/ounce of gold will still be maintained and will tend to increase from there. Gold's resistance level is 2,690-2,720 USD/ounce. The gold market is unlikely to have a strong breakthrough in the near future. 🔥 GOLD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥 💵 TP1: 2640 💵 TP2: 2650 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2618
TVC:GOLDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
The short-term gold market is difficult to predictLast week, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure was the newly announced personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). PCE increased 2.8% over the past 12 months, higher than expected. The US central bank indicated in its latest meeting minutes that higher-than-expected inflation could force it to adjust the pace of its easing cycle. The market still predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will continue cutting until early 2025. In addition to Trump's social media posts, markets will focus on key economic data this week such as jobs data. If the employment situation is not as expected, gold prices may increase again. A stronger labor market could make an interest rate cut unlikely this month. Investors who record profits can rest assured. In the long term, market sentiment is quite optimistic. Many analysts believe that gold price will reach 3,000 USD/ounce next year. 🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥 💵 TP1: 2640 💵 TP2: 2650 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2618
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker DollarGold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive the Recovery Gold prices have rebounded after a recent dip, which followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite this temporary pullback, the broader dynamics supporting gold remain intact, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold One of the primary factors behind gold’s continued strength is the persistence of geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets, with gold standing out as a key hedge against global instability. Even with temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a strong support for gold prices. US Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold US economic data presented a mixed picture, which weakened the dollar and provided a boost to gold prices: - **US GDP QoQ (2nd Estimate):** 2.8%, in line with forecasts, indicating steady economic growth. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Reported at 213K, slightly better than the forecast of 215K, showcasing a stable labor market. - **US Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.5%, signaling a softer investment demand. - **US PCE Price Index YoY:** Rose to 2.3%, matching forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%. - **US Core PCE Price Index YoY:** Climbed to 2.8%, in line with expectations but up from the prior 2.7%. - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These figures weakened the US dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, making the precious metal more attractive to global investors. Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Activity Inflation remains a key driver for gold. Planned tariffs on imported goods, proposed by future President Donald Trump, could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, further boosting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Moreover, gold continues to benefit from a global environment of falling interest rates. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while central bank purchases add strong, consistent demand to the market. Emerging Market Demand Strengthens Gold Emerging economies, such as China and India, play a critical role in gold’s price trajectory. In these regions, gold holds significant cultural and investment value, and rising wealth levels contribute to increasing demand. This structural support further solidifies gold’s position as a long-term investment choice. What’s Next for Gold? Gold’s rebound highlights its resilience amid shifting global dynamics. While geopolitical developments like the ceasefire in the Middle East can trigger short-term volatility, the broader drivers—geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and central bank policies—remain firmly in place. As the dollar shows signs of softening, gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the long term. Is this the beginning of a renewed rally for gold, or will further global developments bring new challenges? Share your insights in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
XAUUSD 1/12/24Heading into a new week with a fresh bias on gold, we maintain an overall short bias and aim to follow it. However, we are fully aware that the chances of gold moving long are relatively high. Because of this, we advise caution. Gold can be a challenging asset to trade due to its sensitivity to fundamentals and potential counter-bias movements. Regardless, we stick to our data-proven ruleset. Currently, we are monitoring two key areas: the liquidity highs above the current price and the supply zone at the top of the last major high. These areas may offer good opportunities for a sell move. However, we are more inclined to see a sweep of a major high followed by a sell-off, aligning with our expected short bias. Additionally, the upward-moving institutional average suggests that if gold begins to trade below this level, it could further support our anticipated downward move. Trade safely, and stick to your plan and risk management strategy!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL - UpdateQuick update on our Election special chart which we posted prior to the election giving our view of what to expect in terms of movement in Gold. The Red arrow was the projected path, the green arrow is real time movement. Can quite honestly say it's worked well for us, not exact, but close enough when fine tuned with the red boxes, Knights inid, and of course Excalibur. We'll keep tracking this. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again. Quote from last week: comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. → Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one. short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds