GOLD: Move Up Expected! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 3,348.30 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Metals
GOLD - Price may bounce up from wedge to $3500 points Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago, price entered to wedge, where it at once made an upward impulse from the support line.
Price broke $3155 with $3420 level and reached resistance line, but soon turned around and started to decline.
After this, Gold broke the $3420 level one more time and later tried to grow, but when it reached the resistance zone, it dropped.
Next, price bounced from support line of wedge and started to grow and in a short time rose to $3420 level.
Recently, it declined below, making a fake breakout of the resistance level, and now it continues to decline.
In my mind, Gold can decline a little more and then bounce up to $3500, breaking the resistance level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
SILVER: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 36.067 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 35.716..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold Falls as Mideast Tensions RiseGold dropped below $3,360 per ounce, hitting a one-week low and on track for its first weekly decline in three. Investors trimmed holdings to cover losses in other markets, with risk sentiment shaken by the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. Israeli strikes reportedly targeted key sites in Tehran following an Iranian missile strike on an Israeli hospital.
Uncertainty also surrounds the US response, with President Trump weighing direct military action. A decision is expected within two weeks.
Despite the Fed holding rates steady and signaling two potential cuts this year, Chair Powell cautioned that tariffs could push inflation higher. New Fed projections flagged slower growth, higher prices, and weaker job markets in 2025. This could limit rate cuts, dampening gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Resistance is seen at $3,370, while support holds at $3,316.
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move🚨 Trade Setup Alert
📍 H1 Orderblock Zone at 3330–3320
🔑 High-probability BUY setup after liquidity sweep 🟢
🎯 Target: 3362 and possibly 3396+
🛑 SL below 3315
📍 Mitigated Supply Zone at 3396–3400
🔻 Possible SELL setup if price rejects that level 🔴
🎯 Target: 3365 / 3340
🛑 SL above 3412
⚠️ Key Level: 3362–3365 must break to reach upper supply zone.
✅ A level viz. 3340 shared yesterday, I bought from 3340 and bagged +180 pips 💸
👀 Watch price action closely near these zones for confirmation.
📊 Trade with proper risk management! 💼
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 20Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3450, support 3338
4-hour chart resistance 3372, support 3338
1-hour chart resistance 3363, support 3340
After the sharp drop at the beginning of this week, the bulls were weak, and each rebound was swallowed by a larger decline. Although there was a counterattack, the overall trend was oscillating downward. Yesterday, it rebounded from above 3362 to 3387, and then fell below 3362 to set a new low at 3347.
After today's shock, it broke through the low of 3347 again and fell to 3340. The short-term trend was weak. The Asian session high was at 3370, and the second high was at 3375. The ideal position is to rebound around 3370/75 during the day and choose to go short. Short-term shocks and declines can wait for rebounds and then go short. It is also easy to rebound quickly after the decline. If the support of 3340/38 is maintained, you can try to buy on the scalp. The second consideration is to sell in advance near 3356 to prevent weakness without a pullback and the NY market directly falling to a new low
Gold Ready to Shine Again? Watch This Battle Zone Closely!Gold is consolidating above the 50% retracement (3372) after defending key structure at 3368–3378. Bullish momentum is building as Silver continues to lead, and the US Dollar (DXY) weakens post-FOMC. If buyers step in here, we could see a clean breakout toward 3415–3450 and beyond. But if 3368 breaks, the bull case is temporarily invalidated.
🧭 Technical Highlights:
✅ Support Zone: 3368–3378 (Fibonacci + bullish order block)
✅ Resistance Targets: 3395, 3415.84, 3451.84, 3470+
🔄 Silver Divergence: XAGUSD broke higher → leading XAU bullishly
🔼 Bias: Bullish (as long as 3368 holds)
🌐 Fundamental Drivers:
🏦 Fed dot plot turns dovish – Only 1–2 cuts, but no hikes planned; supports gold upside.
⚔️ Middle East tensions rising – Iran vs. Israel/US rhetoric keeps risk premium high.
📉 DXY weakens after Powell avoided hawkish tone; real yields remain capped.
💬 Silver outperforming on safe-haven + industrial hedge flows.
💡 Trading Plan Summary:
Buy Zone: 3372–3380
TP Zones: 3395, 3415, 3450+
Invalidation: Close below 3368
Confirmation: Break and close above 3395 with volume = signal to scale in
🔔 Keep an eye on:
US Jobless Claims, SNB & BoE Decisions
DXY 98.70 key level
Silver reaction near 36.70–37.20
Silver sideways consolidation support at 3500Silver – Technical Analysis
The Silver price action continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a prevailing rising trend. However, recent intraday moves indicate a corrective pullback, reflecting short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Levels:
Support:
3,500 – Primary support and previous consolidation zone; critical for maintaining bullish structure.
3,450 – Secondary support; potential downside target if 3,500 fails.
3,390 – Key lower support; aligns with a broader demand area.
Resistance:
3,720 – Immediate upside resistance; first target on a bullish bounce.
3,790 – Intermediate resistance; aligns with recent swing highs.
3,850 – Long-term resistance target; marks the upper boundary of the current bullish channel.
Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Continuation (Base Case):
A bounce from the 3,500 level would affirm the corrective pullback as temporary, with potential for a bullish continuation targeting 3,720, followed by 3,790 and 3,850 over a longer timeframe.
Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario):
A daily close below 3,500 would undermine the current bullish outlook and signal a deeper retracement, with downside risk toward 3,450 and potentially 3,390, where structural support may stabilize price.
Conclusion:
Silver remains structurally bullish, with the current pullback offering a potential entry point within the trend. The 3,500 level is the key pivot—holding above it supports further upside continuation, while a breakdown below would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders should watch for price action confirmation at this level to validate the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold corrective pullback supporta t 3330Gold’s price action sentiment remains bullish, underpinned by a well-established rising trend. However, recent intraday movement suggests a corrective pullback or short-term consolidation, likely in response to overbought conditions or short-term profit-taking.
Key Technical Levels:
Support:
3,330 – Key short-term support and previous consolidation zone; the critical pivot level for trend continuation.
3,315 – Secondary support; minor structural level.
3,300 – Psychological and technical support; near-term bearish target on a breakdown.
Resistance:
3,390 – Immediate upside target on a bullish continuation.
3,420 – Medium-term resistance; aligns with prior highs.
3,450 – Longer-term target, marking the upper boundary of the current bullish channel.
Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Continuation (Base Case):
If Gold maintains above the 3,330 level and confirms a bullish bounce, the broader uptrend is expected to resume, with upside targets at 3,390, followed by 3,420 and 3,450 over time.
Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario):
A daily close below 3,330 would negate the short-term bullish structure, exposing the market to deeper retracements toward 3,315 and 3,300, where further demand could emerge.
Conclusion:
Gold remains in a bullish trend, with the current pullback seen as corrective. The 3,330 level is a critical inflection point: holding above it supports further upside momentum, while a breakdown below this level would challenge the bullish outlook and potentially signal a deeper retracement. Traders should monitor price action around this zone for directional confirmation.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
A you can see traders the pre-event price action started yesterday with the hourly now playing between the MA’s and waiting for FOMC for a potential breakout. As usual, we have highlighted the key levels and added the red boxes for all of you to help navigate the movement should this not be priced in.
Also remember, there is a press conference after the release, this is usually the time the market will react to anything Powell says about future plans for the economy.
Now, looking at the 4H, we have support at the 3370-65 level and below that 3355. If these are attacked and give a RIP, opportunity for the long trade may be available into the 3395 red box which price will need to break to go higher. If we can break above this red box, we can then look to attempt higher price with the levels 3430, 3445 and above that 3455-60 on the horizon. It’s that red box sitting higher up around the 3470-75 region which needs to be watched if we do get up there as an opportunity to attempt the reverse trade may present itself from there depending on the volume.
So in summary, we have 3 key levels in play, ideally a move upside and rejection from the 3400-6 level giving a further dip would suit buyers to get better pricing.
KOG’s RED BOX TARGETS:
BREAK ABOVE 3395 for 3404, 3406, 3410, 3420, 3430, 3435 and 3459 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 3380 FOR 3375, 3364, 3351, 3342, 3333 AND 3327 IN EXTENSION OF THE MOVE
LEARN AND GENERATE YOUR OWN SIGNALS. You don't need any of us to guide you.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold 15-Min Breakout Zone l Smart Money Trap Exposed –🔥 Gold – 15 Min & 1hr Scalping Analysis
⚡️ Objective: Precision Breakout Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel
👌Bullish After Break : 3355
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
➕Reasons
— Reversal Pattern on 15 min
— Bounced From Liquidity Zone
— Choch Pattern
— Next Key level Far From Price 100 PIP Away
Gold (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Analysis- 20 June 2025On the 4-hour chart, gold has been trading in a fairly wide range.
The market has not clearly broken down, and many analysts see it as still structurally bullish as long as key support holds. Currently price is pulling back toward a confluence of support around $3,353–$3,355 (a zone overlapping a trendline and prior demand).
In other words, buyers have defended roughly the 3,340–3,355 area recently. Resistance lies just above in the $3,370–$3,380 region, with a major psychological pivot at $3,400. One analyst notes gold is “boxed between resistance at $3,450 and support at $3,340–$3,335”, so the immediate bias depends on these zones.
A clean break above 3,380–3,400 would signal bullish continuation (targeting 3,450+), while a drop below the 3,340–3,350 support zone would shift the bias bearish.
Overall, the market structure on H4 is mixed-to-bullish: we see higher swings in larger timeframes, and only a minor short-term down leg so far. As one analysis notes, gold remains “structurally bullish” and an upside break could chase the $3,500–$3,550 area.
Key Zones and Levels (4H)
Strong Support (Demand) Zone: ~$3,340–$3,355. This zone (around the recent swing lows) has attracted buying. Analysts mark $3,350–$3,355 as a key buy zone. Breaking below ~$3,340 would be a warning, putting 3,300 as the next floor.
Supply Zone / Resistance: ~$3,370–$3,380. This is the near-term resistance cluster (multiple analysts cite 3,370–3,380 as key). A rejection here would keep gold rangebound.
Major Pivot: $3,400. This round number is acting as an important hurdle. A decisive close above $3,400 would open the door to the $3,434–$3,450 area (prior highs). Conversely, failure at $3,400 can push price back toward the support zone.
Larger Resistances: If the uptrend resumes, look to ~$3,450 (April swing high) and beyond. Many long-range targets point to $3,500+ in a strong bull move.
Secondary Supports: Below the main support zone, watch ~$3,300 and down at $3,281 (the 50-day moving average). These act as deeper floors if weakness continues.
4-Hour Bias
In plain terms, as long as $3,340–$3,355 holds as support, the bias tilts bullish or neutral. We can say bullish bias above that zone: buyers will look to enter on pullbacks there. If price stays under $3,370, gains will likely be capped short-term. A break above $3,380/$3,400 would confirm a bullish breakout. On the flip side, a break below $3,340 shifts us to a bearish bias, with attention turning to lower support levels. On indicators, shorter-term momentum has eased (recent RSI is flattening around 60), suggesting some fatigue. But the longer-term trend is up, supported by strong safe-haven demand (central bank buying, geopolitical risk).
In summary: neutral-to-bullish on 4H, favor buyers near support but cautious near overhead supply.
Intraday (1H) Setups
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, we look for trades that align with the above bias. The clearest setups involve buying around demand zones and selling near supply areas:
Buy the Dip (~$3,344–$3,355): Wait for gold to dip into the 3,340–3,350 area. If you see a bullish price-action signal (e.g. a clear hammer or bullish engulfing candle), that’s a potential buy. Place a stop just below (~$3,335). Initial targets are around $3,370–$3,380 (near resistance). For example, one analysis suggests: “Buy XAU/USD at 3,344–3,348, TP 3,365–3,370, SL 3,335”.
Sell the Rally (~$3,375–$3,380): If price runs up to $3,375–$3,380 and shows signs of stalling (e.g. bearish candle), consider a short. Stop would be just above (~$3,385), with a target back down toward $3,355–$3,360 or the 1H demand zone. (One example from analysis: “Sell XAU/USD at 3,375–3,380, TP 3,355–3,360, SL 3,385”.) This aligns with fading the high of the range.
Breakout Strategy: If momentum is strong and gold breaks convincingly above ~$3,380–$3,400 on the 1H, one can enter long on the breakout. The next resistances are ~$3,434 and $3,450.
Stops should be very tight in that case (just under the breakout candle).
Risk Management: Keep position sizes small (1–2% risk). Use stops under/above the structural levels. Always wait for a clear 1H candle signal before pulling the trigger, to avoid false moves.
Key 1H levels: We can cite the strong short-term zones: support ~$3,344–$3,348 and resistance ~$3,375–$3,380.
If price skims these areas, watch carefully for a signal to buy or sell as described above. If 1H breaks below $3,340, be ready for a move toward the lower demand zone (around $3,335) or even $3,300–$3,280.
Takeaway
Gold is currently trading between ~$3,340 and $3,380 on the 4H chart. The simplest guidance is to trade the range: buy on dips near $3,340–$3,355 with stops just below, aiming for the $3,370–$3,380 area, and sell near $3,375–$3,380 if rallies stall. Maintain a bullish tilt as long as that $3,340+ support holds, but be ready to switch bearish if gold decisively closes under ~$3,340.
Single Takeaway: Treat ~$3,340–$3,355 as a key demand zone – a bounce here would be a high-probability long entry (targeting $3,370–$3,380), whereas a break below would turn the bias lower.
Gold 15-Min Breakout Zones l Smart Money Trap Exposed – 🔥 Gold – 15 Min & 1hr Scalping Analysis
⚡️ Objective: Precision Breakout Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel
👌Bullish After Break : 3380
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
➕Reasons
— 1hr Major Key level
— Retest at 3380 x7 wick's
— Choch x2 Retest at same point 3380
— Trend Line At Exact Point
👌Bearish After Break : 3357
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
➕Reasons
— 1hr 3wicks Touch at same point of key
— Gap Zone
— Choch x2 Retest at same point 3362 / 15 min Tf
— Body Close / Gap Zone / Hidden Support 3357
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3500 (Wave 3).Colleagues, the correction did take place and was quite deep, as I wrote earlier.
However, I am leaving my target unchanged—the resistance area and the maximum of wave “3” of the higher order at 3500.
The waves remain in their previous places, because none of the rules of wave analysis have been violated.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Can Crude Oil Spike to 150 USD / bbl ? Scenario Analysis.With Mid East tensions rising and overall unpredictable
situation around Strait of Hormuz, let's review potential
scenarios for the Crude Oil Prices. I've outlined three
scenarios with projected oil prices for each scenario below.
🚨 Market Alert: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Forecast 📈
🔴 Worst-Case Scenario: Regional War + U.S. Military Involvement
🚢 Oil (Brent): Soars to $150–$200+ if Strait of Hormuz closes
🥇 Gold: Skyrockets to $4,500–$5,000 (safe-haven rush)
₿ Bitcoin: Initial volatility; settles at $80k–$100k
📉 SPX: Crashes to 4,000–4,500
💻 NDX: Drops sharply to 15,000–16,000
🟠 Base-Case Scenario: Protracted Tension, No Major Disruption
🛢 Oil: Stabilizes at elevated $75–$95, occasional spikes
🥇 Gold: Moves higher, trading $3,500–$3,800
₿ Bitcoin: Trades steady, $90k–$110k range
📊 SPX: Pullback moderate, around 5,200–5,500
💻 NDX: Moderately lower, 18,000–19,000 range
🟢 Best-Case Scenario: Diplomatic De-Escalation
🌊 Oil: Eases down to $65–$75
🥇 Gold: Mild decline, holds at $3,300–$3,500
₿ Bitcoin: Positive sentiment, lifts to $100k–$120k
📈 SPX: Slight dip; stays strong near 5,800–6,200
💻 NDX: Minor correction, remains high at 20,000–22,000
Gold on the Edge: Will US Debt Fears Spark a Breakout?XAUUSD – Gold on the Edge: Will US Debt Fears Spark a Breakout?
After weeks of muted movement, gold is coiling within a bearish channel — but a fresh warning from Goldman Sachs may be the trigger that changes everything. With concerns mounting over America’s fiscal future, gold could be preparing for a decisive shift.
🌐 Macro View – Goldman Sachs Sounds the Alarm
🔺 Goldman Sachs recently issued a critical warning:
US national debt is expected to exceed WWII levels, with interest payments topping $1 trillion by 2025, outpacing spending on defense and healthcare.
If urgent fiscal reforms aren’t implemented, the US could face a tightening cycle that slows GDP growth without reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The root causes? Excessive spending, rising interest rates, and deep political gridlock.
📌 For global investors, this type of uncertainty is often bullish for gold — especially as a hedge against both inflation and US dollar instability.
📉 Technical Outlook (Updated – M30 to H1)
Gold is still trading inside a well-defined descending channel, with sellers firmly in control.
Price is currently hovering around the pivot zone at 3,338.42, with a possible short-term bounce toward 3,368.04, the upper edge of the channel.
EMA ribbons (13–200) are sharply aligned to the downside, signaling strong bearish momentum.
If the price fails to break above 3,368, the next key support zones lie at 3,325.78, and potentially 3,309.25, where unfilled fair value gaps (FVG) await.
✅ Trade Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3310 – 3308
Stop-Loss: 3303
Targets: 3314 → 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 →
🟢 BUY SCALP: 3325 – 3323
Stop-Loss: 3318
Targets: 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3342 → 3346 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 →
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3418 – 3420
Stop-Loss: 3424
Targets: 3414 → 3410 → 3405 → 3400 → 3396 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380
🔻 SELL SCALP: 3396 – 3398
Stop-Loss: 3403
Targets: 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370
💬 Closing Thoughts – A Volatile End to the Week?
With US markets returning from a bank holiday and macro pressure rising, volatility could spike to close the week.
✅ Stick to disciplined SL/TP levels. Avoid premature entries and let price confirm direction.
Gold remains technically bearish — but the global debt narrative could turn this market on its head.
Prepare. Observe. Strike only when the structure aligns.
The bear market is over? Short at high and long at low📰 Impact of news:
1. The interest rate remains unchanged and leads to new lows in the short term
2. Geopolitical tensions provide support for risk aversion
📈 Market analysis:
Due to the early closing yesterday, the volatility of the US market was limited and the market seemed relatively flat. From a technical perspective and the current trend, 3340 is a key defensive support level. If it retreats to this level, you can consider going long. If the gold price continues to rise and reaches 3375, from the perspective of trading strategy, you can choose to place a short order here. Focus on the resistance line of 3370-3375 during the day, and pay attention to the support of 3345-3335 below.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3370-3375
TP 3360-3355-3345
BUY 3345-3335
TP 3360-3370
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold Outlook: Sharp Breakout or Pullback Ahead?Despite heightened geopolitical tensions alongside a weak US Dollar, gold's price action remains in pullback mode below the $3,400 level, awaiting a catalyst.
Technically, gold remains at the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, anchored by the 2016 and 2020 highs. It also sits just beneath the projected breakout zone of a large cup-and-handle pattern, with a potential target near $4,000.
If gold manages a firm close above $3,500 and clears the upper boundary of the channel, bullish momentum could lift prices toward $3,700, and possibly $4,000, during the second half of 2025.
Conversely, sustained weakness below the $3,300 level would open the door to near-term support zones at $3,290, $3,240, $3,100, and $2,800, which may offer "buy-the-dip" opportunities along its primary uptrend.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Gold Trading Strategy June 19Yesterday's D1 candle confirmed the Sell side after the FOMC announcement. Today's Asian session had a push but the European and American sessions are likely to sell again.
3366 will be an important breakout zone today, if broken through, the Sell side will continue to be strong and push the price deeper and limit buying when breaking this 3366 zone. 3344 is the first target, it is difficult for gold to break this zone but if it breaks right away, wait below 3296 to BUY for safety. Before that, pay attention to another support zone 3322.
3400 is the Breakout border zone from yesterday to today but gold has not broken it yet. To SELL this zone, you must also wait for the confirmation of the candle, but if you want to wait for a better SELL, you must wait for 3415 or wait at the ATH peak 3443. However, if it breaks 3400, waiting for a Buy test will be quite nice.
Support: 3343-3322-3296
Resistance: 3415-3443
Break out zone: 3366-3400
GOLD H1 Intraday Chart Update For 20 JUNE 25Hello Traders we are now at closing day of the week, for today market expected is in tight range and better to wait for closing of the week
strong resistance for the day is 3382 level while strong support for the day is 3333
scalping range for today is 3340-3375
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
$COIN 30% Pullback Confirms if we Fakeout Recent 15%+ Rally 🧨 COIN SHORT TRADE IDEA — FAKEOUT TRAP IN PLAY
Ticker: NASDAQ:COIN
Date: June 20, 2025
Thesis: Breakout trap setup — expecting a rug pull / red reversal tomorrow to confirm.
🔍 Context
Price broke above range today with a big +18.8% candle to $295 — but...
Volume spike may signal exhaustion, not strength.
RSI = 68 → near overbought
MACD curling into a bearish cross — same signal preceded the last -30% and -40% drawdowns.
History: Same range-break setups in Dec and Feb collapsed hard (-30 to -40%) over 16–25 days.
💣 Trade Plan (Short Setup)
Entry Trigger:
🔻 Enter short if price closes below $277 tomorrow — confirms breakout trap.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $253 (top of old range)
🎯 Target 2: $235 (mid-range support)
🎯 Target 3: $208 (full breakdown move, matches last 2 cycles)
Stop Loss:
🛑 Above $297 (breakout highs)
Timeframe:
1–3 weeks (16–26 bars historically)
🧠 Bias
Bearish unless bulls hold $280+. If we get a big red daily candle tomorrow, fakeout confirmed — high-probability follow-through expected.
Could the Gold bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the 1st resistance which is also a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,337.35
1st Support: 3,294.91
1st Resistance: 3,413.32
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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