Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq broke out of its consolidation range and closed higher. On the daily chart, the index had been moving within a box range, with MACD and the Signal line flattening. However, following the breakout, the MACD has resumed its upward trajectory, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
With a strong breakout candle in play, the market is likely to maintain a short-term buying trend, centered around the 3-day moving average. While tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report presents potential volatility risks, the overall daily uptrend remains intact.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have crossed above the zero line, entering bullish territory. While further upside is possible, imbalanced order flow suggests we may see mixed price action, with alternating bullish and bearish candles.
Given the current setup, buying on pullbacks remains the most favorable approach for today.
CRUDE OIL
Oil declined following the crude inventory report. On the daily chart, the price failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the MACD-Signal line spread remains wide, indicating a lack of immediate convergence.
A strong bearish breakout candle has formed, making short positions near the 3-day moving average a preferable strategy for today. However, the $70 level has established itself as a key support zone, meaning that buying opportunities may emerge in this area.
Price action suggests range-bound movement, and for additional downside to materialize, the daily Signal line needs to drop below the zero line. As it remains above zero, a short-term MACD-Signal convergence attempt is likely in the near term, though a direct breakout seems unlikely due to the current wide spread.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has reappeared, driving continued downside pressure. However, if prices avoid a sharp decline, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts at this stage risky.
Additionally, mixed catalysts, including Iran sanctions and increased U.S. oil drilling activity, are creating conflicting momentum, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings. Stop-loss management is crucial in this environment.
GOLD
Gold closed higher but formed an upper wick, signaling profit-taking at recent highs. On the daily chart, gold broke above $2,900, demonstrating a strong, one-way buying trend.
However, given the sharp rally, this is a high-risk zone for chasing longs, as profit-taking pressure is likely to increase. Since gold has been moving in a stair-step pattern, the best approach is to buy on pullbacks at well-defined support and resistance levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is in its third-wave buy phase, maintaining the bullish momentum. Once this third wave completes and the MACD crosses below the Signal line (a death cross), gold may enter a consolidation phase or a corrective move, leading to sideways price action.
Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to significantly impact gold, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction.
The optimal approach remains buying on dips, but near $2,900, short positions for range-bound trading should also be considered.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21710 / 21675 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21895 / 21935 / 21970 / 22010
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.90 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.30
-Sell Levels: 71.65 / 72.10 / 72.60 / 73.20
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2881 / 2875 / 2870 / 2864 / 2859
-Sell Levels: 2896 / 2902 / 2909
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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