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GOLD LIVE TRADE SIGNAL – June 16, 2025 (Price: $3415)🔵 Setup: BUY on Breakout — targeting continuation after corrective pullback 📉 Market Structure: Bullish impulse completed a clear 5-wave Elliott structure Current pullback forming a potential Wave 2 or IV Price sitting above the breakout zone (~3391.6 support) ✅ Trade Details: Entry: Buy @ 3422 (on bullish candle close above local resistance zone) Stop Loss: 3408 (below consolidation low) Target 1: 3445 Target 2: 3468 RRR: ~1:2.3 Confidence: HIGH — strong momentum wave + clean structure 🔍 Technical Confluence: Wave (2) retracement respected Channel breakout held (blue ascending) Minor resistance around 3420 is being retested Volume likely to spike in NY session Caution: Avoid entry if price breaks below 3391.6 – would invalidate short-term structure.
TVC:GOLD
by filatovarthur
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-16 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's Up-Down-Up Pattern suggests the markets will transition into a moderate upward trending price bar - which is quite interesting in the world we have today. War and a big weekend of events, protests and other new items could drive market trends over the next few days. Still, the SPY Cycle Pattern for today is an Up-Down-Up - which suggests last Thursday was an Up bar, last Friday was a Down bar, and today should be an Up bar. The Gold/Silver pattern is a POP pattern in Counter-trend. I believe the US markets are benefiting as a safe-haven for capital as the global turmoil drives global investors to seek safety and security for their capital. That means as long as the world continues to spin out of control, the US markets and the US-Dollar will act as a moderate safe-haven for capital. Gold and Silver should also benefit from this global chaos. Bitcoin is benefiting from the strength of the US markets (and the technology sector) as well. Let's see how this week start to play out. I'm waiting for some more news. Could be very interesting this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Buy on dips and seize rising opportunities📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: The market opened higher in the morning and then continued to fall. From a medium-term perspective, the market is still in a medium-term bullish position. The price will only be under further pressure if it breaks below the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. Judging from the 1H chart, the short-term death cross continues to fall. At the same time, according to the 4H level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3403. This support is the key watershed of the short-term trend. As long as it does not fall below this support, the bulls still have a chance. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3413-3403 TP 3430-3440 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold pullback supported at 3377Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower during the first half of the European session, ending a three-day winning streak that had pushed it near a two-month high earlier on Monday. A stronger performance in equity markets is reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, losses are limited due to a few key factors: Ongoing Middle East tensions are keeping risk sentiment in check. Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 are weighing on the US Dollar, supporting gold. Traders are cautious ahead of the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday. Despite the dip, gold is holding above the $3,400 level. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 3444 Resistance Level 2: 3460 Resistance Level 3: 3483 Support Level 1: 3377 Support Level 2: 3360 Support Level 3: 3340 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,327.72. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,385.41. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
2
xauusd Entry Level: 3,416.000 USD Price is currently at 3,425.640 USD, so the entry was already triggered and the position is active and in profit. Stop-Loss (SL): 3,407.500 USD Positioned below the minor FVG area; protects against deeper downside if structure fails. Take-Profit Targets (TP): TP1: 3,423.000 USD (short-term scalp zone — already reached) TP2: 3,439.000 USD (medium-term resistance) TP3: 3,452.500 USD (strong upside target; likely near a previous high) Shift Stop to entry after reaching TP1
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tdawly_Official
GOLD Eyes New Highs Amid Geopolitical Risk and Bullish StructureGOLD – Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold, Eyes on New Highs if Tensions Escalate Gold futures pared some gains after approaching fresh record highs earlier in the session. The metal rallied strongly on Friday as escalating Middle East tensions — particularly between Israel and Iran — drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Analysts note that if the conflict intensifies further in the coming days, new highs could be within reach for gold. Technical Outlook: A short-term correction toward 3404 or 3390 is likely. However, as long as the price holds above this support zone, the bullish trend is expected to continue toward 3448, with potential to reach 3486. For a bearish shift, the price must break below the 3391–3381 area with at least a confirmed 1H close, which would open the path toward 3347. Key Levels: • Resistance: 3431, 3449, 3486 • Support: 3404, 3391, 3381
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD Strong break-out ahead to $3700.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a Channel Up, while being supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is similar to the December 19 2024 - January 30 2025 Channel Up, which when it broke above the previous Higher High Resistance, it rose straight to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, as long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are looking for a medium-term bullish break-out, possible by the end of July, targeting at least 3700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Silver Gains on Tensions, Eyes on FedFriday’s strong U.S. data may support the dollar, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2, beating forecasts of 53.5 and marking the first gain in six months. Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, especially for silver. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites Friday, killing military officials. On Sunday, Iran began its fourth phase of response, warning of firm retaliation to further Israeli actions. Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While rates are expected to stay unchanged, futures still price in two cuts this year, possibly starting in September, supported by last week’s soft inflation data. Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Above $3,440Gold rose to around $3,440 per ounce on Monday, staying near April’s record highs, as escalating Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand. Weekend clashes between Israel and Iran raised fears of broader conflict. Markets now look ahead to upcoming central bank meetings, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors are watching for signals on future cuts. Last week’s weaker inflation data has increased expectations for a potential rate cut by September. Traders are also awaiting details on President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff decisions, expected in the coming weeks. Resistance is seen at $3,430, while support holds at $3,392.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
Beyond the News: Why I Trust the Charts When Trading GoldBased on the current structure, I believe gold is in the fifth wave of a larger Elliott Wave formation. On the higher time frame, the price action appears to be contained within a channel that resembles a leading diagonal pattern—where Wave 1 is typically the longest. From this perspective, I anticipate a potential retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the most recent upward move, or a test of the lower boundary of the channel before a reversal may occur. My trading plan involves two potential entry strategies: Enter at the 0.618 Fib retracement with a stop-loss set near the 0.881 level. Wait for a bounce off the lower channel, followed by a pullback and a breakout above the start of the pullback before entering the position. While no trader can be right all the time, having a structured plan with predefined take-profit and stop-loss levels is key to effective risk management and long-term survival in the markets. Why I Favor Technical Over Fundamental Analysis For those wondering why I rely more on technical analysis—especially Elliott Wave Theory—over fundamental news, here’s my reasoning: I’ve found that news and earnings-based trades often behave irrationally. A company may report strong earnings and guidance, only to see its stock sell off, fake a rally the next day, and then sell off again. Conversely, a company with poor earnings may drop ahead of the report, only to rally immediately after. These inconsistencies made it difficult to build a reliable strategy based solely on fundamental data. Over time, I observed that despite news events, the market often completes its technical structure—such as Elliott Wave formations and Fibonacci cycles—before fully reacting to news. In these cases, fundamental developments tend to accelerate or confirm the direction already implied by the technical setup, rather than override it. Gold is no exception. While it's common to assume that the S&P 500 (ES) and gold move in opposite directions due to risk-on/risk-off dynamics, I’ve noticed that they can trend in the same direction when their respective Elliott Wave structures align. This doesn't eliminate the inverse correlation concept entirely, but it highlights the importance of integrating technical analysis into a fundamentally driven view for more precise entries and exits. Ultimately, I view fundamentals as the fuel, and technicals as the engine that defines the path.
TVC:GOLDLong
by polarity
GOLD H4 Update: Bulls will target 3600/3750 USD Market Update🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update (June 16, 2025) 📊 Price & Technical Outlook Current Spot Price: around $3,414  Technical Setup * Gold consolidating above major support at \~\$3,180–3,200 * Testing resistance at \~\$3,380–3,400; breakout could push toward \$3,600 * Recent price action considered a healthy consolidation with upside potential 🏆 Bull Market Overview * Pullback likely complete; supported by strong geopolitical and macro tailwinds * Key price levels: \$3,000 / \$3,200 / \$3,400 (resistance near \$3,400) * Bullish target: \$3,600, with further upside possible if momentum holds * Short-term dips remain buying opportunities—“buy the dip” remains favored ⭐ Recommended Strategy BUY/HOLD: Continue to accumulate on dips, using \$3,200–3,300 as entry zones Target: Maintain bull target at \$3,600, with breakout opportunity above \$3,400 🏦 Macro & Market Drivers Fed & Central Bank Outlook * Investors positioning for possible Fed rate cuts later this year, likely totaling around 75 bps by end of 2025 * Ongoing dollar weakness supports gold Geopolitical Tensions * Middle East unrest, U.S.–Iran dynamics, and global evacuations are fueling safe-haven demand for gold * Continued volatility in global hotspots likely to keep gold elevated Risk Appetite & Market Behavior * Both stocks and gold are climbing—an unusual “optimism + fear” scenario * Central banks, especially in China, India, and Turkey, have been strong gold buyers in 2025 * Speculative positions in gold futures remain high U.S.–China & Trade Tariffs * Unresolved U.S.–China tariffs and tensions continue to support gold * Any easing in trade friction could temper gold’s advance 📰 Latest Market Sentiment * Wall Street remains bullish on gold for the upcoming week, though some caution persists ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting * Macro environment is seen as supportive for gold and other precious metals * Gold’s rally is positively influencing the broader precious metals market 🌏 Demand Themes * **Asian Buyers**: China may relax gold import quotas to manage currency, while India demand remains strong though can be seasonally slower * **Central Banks**: Over 240 tonnes of gold added in Q1 by central banks, with China and India as top buyers ⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints * Fed surprises: A more hawkish tone at the next meeting could push gold back toward \$3,200–3,300 * Geopolitical breakthroughs: Any stable resolutions could reduce safe-haven demand * Large speculative position unwinds could create short-term volatility 🔎 Mid-Term Outlook Summary | Scenario | Support | Resistance | Catalysts | | --------- | ------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- | | Base case | \$3,200–3,300 | \$3,400 | Rate cut expectations + geopolitics | | Bull case | Above \$3,400 | \$3,600+ | Escalating risk, dovish Fed | | Bear case | Below \$3,200 | — | Hawkish Fed, easing global tensions | ✔️ Final Take * Technical and fundamental momentum supports a continued bull phase with key target at \$3,600 * Best strategy: accumulate on dips between \$3,200–3,300 * Key factors to watch: Fed’s next move (June 17), Middle East developments, U.S.–China trade actions, central bank buying
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
40
XAUUAD UPDATE 16- 6 +2025The chart you provided is a 45-minute time frame analysis for Gold CFDs (US$/OZ). Here's a breakdown of the key elements and what they suggest: --- Current Price $3,414.93, down -18.42 (-0.54%) --- Analysis Summary Price Action The price has recently rejected from a resistance zone (around $3,445–$3,450). It is currently pulling back, heading downward from this resistance. Support Zones Highlighted Multiple horizontal yellow zones mark previous support/resistance levels. The key immediate support level lies near $3,400–$3,405. A deeper support area is visible around $3,360–$3,365, and further below near $3,320. --- Forecast Indication (Based on Markings) A short-term pullback (blue arrow up) may retest the breakdown level (~$3,430). Then, a potential drop toward the next support at $3,360 is expected (blue arrow down). A bearish continuation scenario is emphasized with a red downward arrow, suggesting price may head further down to the $3,320 area if $3,360 fails to hold. --- Implications for Traders Bearish Bias: Suggested by the forecast arrows and recent resistance rejection. Potential Setup: Short on pullback near $3,430 (if price fails to reclaim this zone). Target: $3,360 and possibly $3,320. Stop-loss: Above $3,450 resistance. --- Would you like a trading plan or signal based on this analysis?
TVC:GOLDShort
by Mr_Zakrii
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we said we would want the lower level red box to be tested and rejected in order to give us the move upside into that 3330-35 region where we wanted to monitor the price for the short. We managed to get a pin point move, however, we had to exit the short trades early due to the support level holding us up. We then continued to follow Excalibur and the red box indi’s which were suggesting higher pricing and by the end of the week we had completed all our bullish above target levels, plus Excalibur trade targets and LiTE again performed at 100% accuracy. A phenomenal week in Camelot, not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade, analysis and post on. So, what can we expect from the week ahead? For this week we can expect some gaps on open which is going to make it difficult due to skewed data. We will however stick with the red box levels and the tools we have to make a plan for the two scenarios we may see potential of. Scenario one: Price opens and gaps upside, we’ll be looking for the levels of 3455-60 for a potential reaction in price, if achieved, an opportunity may be available to short there back down into the 3450, 3443 and 3435 levels. Scenario two: If we do open and gap downside, we’ll look for the levels of 3430-23 to hold us up, and if achieved, an opportunity to long there back up into the 3450-5 level and in extension of the move 3465 may be available. It’s a difficult one again as no one knows how the market is going to open and what is going to happen. So we’ll update traders as much as we can during the day and the week with KOG’s bias of the day and red box target levels KOG’s bias of the week: Bearish below 3465 with targets below 3425, 3420, 3410 and 3406 Bullish on break of 3465 with targets above 3477, 3485, 3492, 3495 and 3503 Red Boxes: Break above 3435 for 3443, 3448, 3465 and 3476 in extension of the move Break below 3420 for 3410, 3406, 3397, 3385 and 3380 in extension of the move Many of our followers and traders have seen the power of the red boxes, Imagine this on your own TV screen, 4H for swing trading, 1H for day trading and 15min for scalping. Any pair on any chart 23hrs a day. Add to that the Knights indicator giving you swing points, key levels and retracement levels and our custom volume indicator telling you when to long, when to short and when to stand back from your trades. LEARN AND GENERATE YOUR OWN SIGNALS. You don't need any of us to guide you. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3500.Colleagues, I believe that, as with the euro, the upward five-wave impulse is not yet over. At the moment, I see the formation of wave “3” of the lower order and wave ‘3’ of the middle order, which means that the upward movement will continue at least to the resistance area of 3500 — this is the maximum of wave “3” of the higher order, which means that a correction is possible at this level. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
29
GOLD's room for growth is still wide, new all-time peakThe Israel-Iran conflict has increased the safe-haven role of gold, while pushing up oil prices, putting further pressure on inflation alongside the tariff pressure from the Trump administration. Although the Israel-Iran conflict may continue to push gold prices higher this week, investors should be cautious and avoid chasing the development of this conflict. Because, gold price increases due to geopolitical events are usually short-lived. In addition to the Israel-Iran conflict, markets will witness a speech by Fed Chairman Powell this week. With the Trump administration’s tariff policy still complicated and the Israel-Iran conflict escalating, the Fed Chairman may continue to signal that interest rates will remain unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. However, there is growing speculation that the Fed may begin laying the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. In the short term, gold prices may be less affected by the Fed's monetary policy. Investors will pay more attention to the Trump administration's tariff policy, especially when the 90-day tariff suspension is about to end. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Technical analysis still shows an upward trend in gold prices in the medium and long term, although gold prices will inevitably have periods of adjustment and accumulation, especially when the Israel-Iran conflict subsides. Accordingly, if the gold price surpasses 3,446 USD/oz, it may continue to increase to the 3,500 USD/oz area. Conversely, if the gold price trades below 3,446 USD/oz, it may adjust to around 3,344 - 3,373 USD/oz, or even lower. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3485 - 3483⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3489 →Take Profit 1 3477 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3471 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3417 - 3419⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3413 →Take Profit 1 3425 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3431
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis - 16 June 20254H Chart: Market Structure & Bias Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish structure: price has been making higher highs and higher lows (a valid Break of Structure/BOS) No bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) signal is present to suggest a reversal, so the overall bias remains bullish. In other words, the trend is intact and buyers still dominate. Key moving averages (not shown) also slope upward, reinforcing a “buy the dip” bias. We note that price recently stalled near 3427–3435, forming a small consolidation. This clustered area around the recent high acts as a near-term supply (resistance) zone (a possible order block where big players sold). On the downside, prior support is visible around 3380–3400, where buyers stepped in on earlier pullbacks. In summary, the 4H bias is bullish, with dips into demand areas likely to attract buying interest. Support/Demand Zones: At ~3380–3400 there is significant buying interest (a demand zone), as well as a minor support band around 3330–3350. These areas coincide with key Fibonacci retracements (around 50–62% of the last rally), making them high-probability bounce zones. Resistance/Supply Zones: On the upside, the 3420–3435 range is resistance (recent swing high and a bearish order-block area). Farther above, 3470–3485 is a major resistance cluster (around prior highs and a 61.8% extension), where supply may re-emerge. Key Zones (4H Chart) Buy Zone 1 (Demand): 3380–3400. This zone acted as support on prior pullbacks and aligns with ~50%–62% Fibonacci retracement levels. It represents a demand area (many buy orders), so bounces are likely here. Buy Zone 2 (Support): 3330–3350. A deeper support area where buyers piled in previously. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retrace of the last leg, making it a strong multi-purpose support/demand zone. Sell Zone 1 (Supply): 3420–3435. This marks the recent 4H swing high and a potential bearish order block. It has already capped rallies, so price may stall or reverse here on a retest. Sell Zone 2 (Resistance): 3470–3485. A higher cluster of resistance (major psychological level and Fib extension) where selling could appear if gold extends its rally. This is a logical profit-taking area. Each of these zones is a range (not just a line) to allow for some trade flexibility. We watch for price action (like pin bars or breakouts) within these ranges to signal entries. 1H Chart: Trade Setups Buy at 3385–3395 (Long). Entry Zone: 3385–3395 (just above the lower demand zone). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3375). Take-Profit: 3420 (minor resistance) and 3460 (next supply cluster). Reason: This zone combines the 4H demand area and ~50% Fib support. We expect bulls to defend this zone. Trigger: Wait for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. a strong bullish pin bar or engulfing candle with a long lower wick). Such a candle (long-tail wick) at support indicates a liquidity grab by buyers. Alternatively, a clear 1H BOS above the last minor swing high would confirm strength and serve as a breakout entry. Buy on 3425–3430 breakout (Long). Entry Zone: Break above 3425–3430 (just above the recent 4H high). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below entry (around 3415). Take-Profit: 3480–3490 (next resistance zone). Reason: A push through the 3420–3435 supply zone would show buyers overcoming sellers. This would keep the uptrend running. The breakout opens room toward the 3470–3485 resistance area. Trigger: Enter on a 1H bullish breakout/close above 3430 (a new higher high) – i.e. a bullish BOS confirming continued uptrend. Optionally look for a pullback to 3425 as a retest entry if the breakout is swift. Buy at 3330–3340 (Long). Entry Zone: 3330–3340 (deeper support zone on 4H). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3320). Take-Profit: 3380 (first target), then 3420. Reason: This is a strong support/demand area (4H 61.8% Fib support). A drop here would be a deeper pullback – a higher-risk entry with a bigger reward if buyers step in. Trigger: Look for a clear bullish reversal on 1H (e.g. hammer/engulfing candle) or a shift in structure (price fails to make a new low and instead forms a higher low). A bullish candlestick in this zone implies demand is defending it. Each setup is aligned with the 4H bullish bias (we’re looking for long opportunities at support zones or breakouts). The ~$10 stops are set just beyond the defined entry zone, giving each trade a favorable risk/reward. Takeaway: Gold’s 4-hour trend is up. We favor buying near the identified demand/support zones (or on a confirmed breakout above recent highs) and targeting the next resistance levels. Use tight stops (~$10 beyond each zone) and aim for 2:1+ reward on these high-probability setups. Trade with the trend and respect the key zones above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
XAUUSD: June 16 Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3500, support below 3338 Four-hour chart resistance 3470, support below 3419 One-hour chart resistance 3450, support below 3428-19 Gold news analysis: Last Friday, the further intensification of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East promoted the rise of risk aversion sentiment. Spot gold once broke through $3446, setting a new high in two months. This wave of rise was driven by multiple factors, including the weak inflation data in the United States last week, which further strengthened the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold. On Monday, gold prices are still likely to continue to benefit from risk aversion and are expected to challenge the 3500 mark in the short term. In addition, this week's market will also be affected by the Fed's resolution and Powell's speech. Investors should pay attention to the potential impact of the Fed's policy trends on gold prices. It is worth noting that US President Trump will visit Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. The speech during the summit may also cause gold price fluctuations, which needs to be paid attention to. Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the four-hour support 3419 and the one-hour support 3428. The pressure above focuses on the suppression near the daily level 3500. The short-term long-short strength and weakness watershed 3419 is the first-line barrier. Before the four-hour level does not fall below this position, continue to maintain the rhythm of buying on dips and look to 3500. Buy: 3419near SL: 3414 Buy: 3428near SL: 3423
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ