GOLD → Geopolitical risks are driving gold prices up. To ATH?FX:XAUUSD is updating its interim highs as it retests resistance at 3435 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Economic risks are on the rise...
Gold rose 1.5% on Friday in Asian trading as investors sought refuge from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The price approached 7-week highs and could reach $3,500 if the conflict intensifies. The US and Israel have warned of serious consequences, while Iran has promised to respond. Geopolitics has overshadowed economic news, and markets are pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technically, the price is emerging from a local consolidation and testing a fairly important resistance level, forming a false breakout and correction. But this does not mean that the price will fall...
Resistance levels: 3425, 3435, 3461
Support levels: 3408, 3400, 3377
If gold consolidates above 3425 and continues to storm the resistance, growth may continue, and at the moment, there is a fairly high probability of a retest of the ATH. However, the ideal scenario would be a retest of the zone of interest 3408 - 3400 and the capture of liquidity before continuing growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Metals
Markets Crash: Gold Soars, Crypto Dips!Israel’s strikes on Iran shook markets—Bitcoin and stocks tanked, gold soared. What’s next? Let’s unpack the best trading moves for this chaos!
Hey traders, Skeptic here!👋 Yesterday’s Israeli strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear sites, plus high-profile casualties, sent markets into a tailspin. If your positions got stopped out today, don’t sweat it—that’s normal in this mess. Today, I’m breaking down the most likely scenarios for financial markets, especially stocks and crypto, with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. Stick with me to navigate this storm!
📉Right now, markets are screaming risk-off . Stocks like the S&P 500, indices, and crypto like Bitcoin are bleeding as buyers have zero confidence. Everyone’s piling into safe-haven assets like gold, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. Last night’s news triggered sharp drops in Bitcoin and SPX500, while gold’s rallying hard. This is classic flight-to-safety behavior, and it’s why your stops might’ve been hit. Let’s dive into the geopolitical scenarios driving this and then get to the charts.
📍First, the big picture.
Scenario one: Iran retaliates for Israel’s strikes, and we’re stuck in a tit-for-tat escalation for weeks. Markets stay risk-off, stocks and crypto keep sliding, and safe havens like gold thrive.
Scenario two: The US-Iran nuclear talks on Sunday, June 15th, lead to a deal, tensions cool, and markets stabilize. If those talks fail, I’m not optimistic— recent US inflation relief, might’ve pushed the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts to boost markets. Without de-escalation, rate cuts won’t save risky assets, and we’re looking at muted growth for crypto and stocks.
But if a deal happens, markets could rip—Bitcoin might hit $130K short-term and even $170K as the bull run’s ceiling. For now, uncertainty rules, so let’s see what the charts say.
👀 Let’s start with Bitcoin on the daily.
The first major support is $100K-$101K. If we lose that, we’re looking at a 3-4 month time-based correction . I know some of you see Bitcoin’s dip and think it’s a bargain, but hold up—if tensions escalate, breaking $100K-$101K is almost guaranteed. We could slide to $95K (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) or even $86K (0.618 retracement). No buying until Tuesday’s clarity—too risky. Shorting? Also a bad idea. After this sharp drop, where do you put your stop-loss? An 8% stop is the minimum, which trashes your risk-reward ratio. Best move? Sit tight, no positions, and wait for the dust to settle.
📈 Gold’s the star in this risk-off market.
On the 4-hour, as we said in last week’s watchlist, it broke the descending channel’s ceiling at 3333.86 and pulled back. Using our trick of cloning the prior channel and placing it above, it’s reacting perfectly at the new channel’s midline. A break above 3434.35 could push us to the channel ceiling at 3550.13 . Personally, I’d wait for more ranging here before going long—stops are too wide right now for a clean entry. If you caught our 3340 long trigger from the watchlist, you’re sitting pretty— just hold . Gold’s got more upside potential, but if you’re not in, don’t FOMO. Wait for a better setup.
🎯 Our EUR/USD long trigger from last week’s watchlist at 1.14555 was a winner
if you took it, you hit your risk-reward target and likely locked in profits. Nice work! The new long trigger is a break above 1.16142 resistance. No short triggers here, just like gold. With both major and secondary trends screaming uptrend, shorting against the flow is nonsense. I’d wait for key levels to break and confirm a bearish shift before even thinking about shorts. Trade with the trend, always.
📝our plan: Gold longs above 3434.35 target 3550.13; hold 3340 entries or wait for a range. EUR/USD longs above 1.16142, no shorts. Risk max 1% per trade, set alerts, and stay patient—geopolitical chaos means no FOMO moves.
I hope for a day with no wars, where we can focus on what matters—building value and humanity.🤍
That’s today’s breakdown, traders!
If this helped, smash that Boost button and Follow for more no-hype analysis. Drop a comment—what’s your next move? Want a coin or market analyzed? This is Skeptic, stay safe, protect your capital, and see you next time! <3
GOLD hits $3,435 target, Middle East tensions rise againOANDA:XAUUSD rose to a one-week high as weak U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, while conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD recently hit a fresh one-week high, extending its rally. Spot gold had risen to $3,435 as of press time, after hitting its highest level since June 5.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation “will continue until this threat is eliminated.” Iranian state TV reported that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hussein Salami, had been killed. Iran vowed a “harsh counterattack” against Israel and the United States, while other countries said they were not involved in the operation. Gold is trading near an all-time high of $3,500.10, just shy of $60.
Netanyahu said the operation “will last for days to eliminate this threat.” Israel believes the strike killed at least several Iranian nuclear scientists and senior generals, according to a military official. Iranian state TV said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hussein Salami may have been among the dead.
Israel's attack on Iran comes after Netanyahu repeatedly warned of attacking the OPEC oil producer to cripple its nuclear program. US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to hold a new round of talks on Tehran's nuclear program in Oman on Sunday, but Trump said this week he was less confident a deal could be reached.
OANDA:XAUUSD extended its recent two-day gains as weak U.S. inflation and jobs data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. A report on Thursday showed U.S. producer price inflation remained subdued in May, while another showed jobless claims continued to rise, hitting their highest level since late 2021.
OANDA:XAUUSD has gained 30% this year as investors increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid President Trump’s aggressive trade policies and geopolitical tensions, including in Ukraine. Strong demand from central banks and sovereigns has also supported gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continues to reach the target of $3,435 after reaching the previous upside target at the base of $3,400.
Currently, the base of $3,400 becomes the nearest support, while other than the resistance of $3,435, there is no resistance ahead to prevent gold from heading towards the all-time high of $3,500.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping upward, still far from the overbought zone, indicating that there is still plenty of room for further upside ahead.
There are no factors that could cause gold to decline during the day, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3480 - 3478⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3384
→Take Profit 1 3472
↨
→Take Profit 2 3466
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3373 - 3375⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3369
→Take Profit 1 3381
↨
→Take Profit 2 3387
Safe-Haven Demand Boosts Gold as Middle East Tensions EscalateHey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 3,380 zone. Gold is currently trading in an uptrend and is experiencing a correction phase as it pulls back toward this key support and resistance area.
On the fundamental side, reports indicate that Israel struck Iran overnight — fueling a classic geopolitical risk-off sentiment. This escalation is driving strength in safe-haven assets while putting pressure on riskier markets. Gold typically benefits from this kind of uncertainty, adding further weight to the technical setup we’re seeing today.
Trade safe,
Joe
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for June 13.Technical analysis of gold
Daily chart resistance 3500, support below 3357
Four-hour chart resistance 3450, support below 3412
One-hour chart resistance 3450, support below 3412.
Gold operation suggestions: Affected by the regional situation in Israel/Iran, gold triggered emergency risk aversion and once rose to around 3445. From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the first-line support of 3412, and the pressure above focuses on the suppression near the daily level of 3500. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line is 3412. Before the four-hour level does not fall below this position, continue to maintain the rhythm of buying on dips and look to 3450-3500. Observe the short-term chart and buy after stabilization.
Buy: 3412near SL: 3407
Buy: 3392near SL: 3388
Gold Surges on Middle East Conflict: What's the Next Move?XAUUSD – Gold Surges on Middle East Conflict: What's the Next Move?
🌍 Geopolitical Shock Fuels Market Volatility
The gold market responded sharply after Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the Natanz uranium site. These actions triggered global concern:
Gold jumped to $3,430/oz, hitting a new weekly high
WTI crude surged by over 8%
US equity indices dipped significantly
The US remains officially neutral but confirmed it will defend its troops if provoked
Investors are now moving rapidly into safe-haven assets, especially gold.
📊 Technical Breakdown (H1/M30)
Trend Structure: Bullish momentum continues following the breakout above $3,392
Key Support Zone: $3,412–$3,426, with price holding above this region
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Identified between $3,405–$3,412, could act as re-entry zone
EMA Alignment: Price is above the 13, 34, 89, and 200 EMAs — signalling strength across short and long-term moving averages
Psychological Resistance: Eyes now on the $3,454–$3,456 zone for potential selling pressure
🧠 Market Sentiment & Risk Behaviour
Risk-off mood dominates: Capital is rotating into gold, CHF, and JPY
Traders are reacting to news headlines over economic data
Institutional flows are entering strongly on dips, building positions in defensive assets
🎯 Trade Setup for 13th June
✅ Buy Zone: 3384 – 3382
Stop-Loss: 3378
Targets: 3388 – 3392 – 3396 – 3400 – 3405 – 3410
❌ Sell Zone: 3454 – 3456
Stop-Loss: 3460
Targets: 3450 – 3446 – 3442 – 3438 – 3434 – 3430
📌 Tactical Summary
Gold remains a go-to asset amid geopolitical uncertainty. While the technicals support further upside, caution is warranted near resistance. Any easing in military headlines could trigger a fast retracement.
🔍 Pro tip: Avoid chasing. Let price confirm near key levels before entering. Manage risk diligently in high-volatility environments.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3428.Colleagues, in the last forecast I wrote that I expect to reach the target in the area of 3439.37 and I am not giving up on it. At the moment, the price has made a strong correction and so I will make a new forecast, in which the targets will remain almost unchanged, but I see that the wave pattern has changed a bit.
Now wave “1” lower wave is located higher and at the moment I believe that the price is in wave “5”.
A correction to the support area of 3265 is possible, but in general I expect to reach the resistance area of 3428.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Update of the Bullish/Bearish Catalysts for Gold prices________________________________________
⚡️ Gold’s Pullback: A Reset, Not the End
After peaking above $3,500/oz in April, gold’s slide back toward $3,210 marks a sharp—but not unusual—correction. What’s changed in the gold narrative? The rapid unwinding of panic bids as the Fed stays hawkish, the dollar flexes, and risk appetite returns. But beneath the surface, multiple structural drivers—old and new—are shaping gold’s next act.
________________________________________
1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Policy Bias (9/10)
Still the #1 driver.
With inflation sticky and the U.S. labor market robust, the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates (4.25–4.50%) is pinning real yields near multi-year highs. This erodes the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, particularly for Western investors.
🦅 Watch for any dovish shift—a single Fed pivot could reignite gold fast.
________________________________________
2. U.S. Dollar Resilience (8.5/10)
The DXY recently surged above 101, buoyed by relative U.S. growth outperformance and ongoing EM weakness. Since gold is dollar-priced, a strong greenback makes gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers, crimping global demand.
💵 Sustained dollar strength could push gold closer to $3,100 unless countered by inflation or new geopolitical stress.
________________________________________
3. Central Bank Buying & “De-Dollarization” Flows (8/10)
This is the new wild card.
Countries like China, India, Turkey, and Russia are accelerating gold reserves accumulation—partly to hedge against dollar-centric sanctions and diversify away from U.S. Treasuries. Q2 2025 data shows a 35% jump in net central bank purchases year-on-year.
🏦 This bid underpins the gold market even when ETFs and retail are sellers.
________________________________________
4. U.S.–China Trade Normalization (7.5/10)
The May 2025 Geneva agreement was a big de-risking event. While tariffs haven’t vanished, steady progress on tech and agriculture reduces tail risk for global trade, putting downward pressure on gold’s safe-haven premium.
🌏 Any breakdown or tariff surprise could quickly reverse this.
________________________________________
5. Algorithmic & Quant Trading Flows (7/10)
Gold’s volatility is now heavily influenced by systematic funds. CTA (commodity trading advisor) and quant-driven selling accelerated the recent drop once $3,300 was breached. This non-fundamental selling creates overshoots—but also sharp reversals on technical bounces.
🤖 Expect snapbacks when positioning reaches extremes.
________________________________________
6. U.S.–U.K. & EU Trade Deals (6.5/10)
Both deals have reduced the global uncertainty premium. While the economic impact is moderate, improved global relations have pushed capital into equities and away from gold.
🇬🇧 Keep an eye on political risk, especially if new tariffs or Brexit-related shocks re-emerge.
________________________________________
7. India–Pakistan and Middle East Geopolitical Risks (6.5/10)
Tensions have cooled, but remain a latent driver. The India–Pakistan border saw restraint in May; Iran–U.S. talks are “cautiously positive.” Any surprise flare-up, especially involving oil, can quickly restore gold’s safe-haven bid.
🕊️ Event-driven spikes likely, but not sustained unless escalation persists.
________________________________________
8. ETF Flows, Retail & Institutional Demand (6/10)
ETF inflows have slowed sharply in 2025, but central bank and Asian buying partly offset this. U.S. retail interest has faded due to higher Treasury yields, but any sign of real rates rolling over could spark new inflows.
📈 ETF demand is now more a symptom than a cause of price moves.
________________________________________
9. Technological Demand & Jewelry Trends (5.5/10)
Longer-term, gold’s use in electronics, EVs, and green tech is rising modestly (up ~3% YoY). Indian and Chinese jewelry demand—seasonally soft now—could rebound late 2025 if income and sentiment recover.
📿 Not a short-term driver, but a steady tailwind in the background.
________________________________________
10. Fiscal Risk & U.S. Debt Sustainability (5.5/10)
Rising concerns about the U.S. debt trajectory, especially if deficits widen or the U.S. nears a shutdown or downgrade, can trigger flight-to-quality bids for gold. This is not the main driver now, but is a key “black swan” risk if Treasury auctions stumble.
💣 Could move up the list rapidly on negative headlines.
________________________________________
🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch:
• Israel – Iran tensions in the Middle East – limited impact on gold prices.
• Crypto Market Volatility (5/10): Periods of sharp crypto drawdowns have triggered some rotation into gold, but the correlation is inconsistent.
• Chinese Real Estate Stress (5/10): Signs of further slowdown or crisis (e.g., major developer defaults) could boost gold as a defensive play in Asia.
• Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Mine strikes, export restrictions, or transport bottlenecks can create localized price spikes, but rarely move the global market for long.
________________________________________
🏆 2025 Gold Catalyst Rankings (with Impact Scores)
Rank Catalyst Strength/10 Current Impact Direction Notes
1 Fed “Higher for Longer” Policy 9.0 Very High Bearish Key yield driver
2 U.S. Dollar Resilience 8.5 Very High Bearish Hurts non-USD demand
3 Central Bank & “De-Dollarization” Buying 8.0 High Bullish Structural support
4 U.S.–China Trade Normalization 7.5 High Bearish De-risks global trade
5 Algorithmic/Quant Trading Flows 7.0 High Bearish Magnifies volatility
6 U.S.–U.K./EU Trade Deals 6.5 Moderate Bearish Risk appetite rising
7 India–Pakistan/Mideast Geopolitics 6.5 Moderate Neutral Event risk
8 ETF, Retail & Institutional Flows 6.0 Moderate Bearish Trend follower
9 Tech/Jewelry Physical Demand 5.5 Low Bullish Seasonal uptick possible
10 U.S. Debt/Fiscal Sustainability 5.5 Low Bullish Potential tail risk
11 Crypto Market Volatility 5.0 Low Bullish Risk-off flows (sometimes)
12 China Property Crisis 5.0 Low Bullish Asian safe-haven buying
13 Physical Supply Disruptions 4.0 Very Low Bullish Rare but possible
________________________________________
🚦Where Next for Gold?
• Current price: ~$3,210/oz
• Key support: $3,150/oz
• Key upside triggers: A dovish Fed surprise, sharp dollar reversal, sudden geopolitical event, or central bank “buying spree.”
• Risks: Extended strong dollar, yield spike, no escalation of global risks.
________________________________________
Summary Table: 2025 Gold Price Catalysts Comparison
Catalyst 2024 Score 2025 Score Change Impact Direction (2025) Commentary
Fed Rate Policy 9 9 – Bearish Unchanged, still dominant
U.S. Dollar 8 8.5 ↑ Bearish Gained in strength
Central Bank Buying 7 8 ↑ Bullish Grown in importance, especially in Asia
U.S.-China Trade 7.5 7.5 – Bearish Still relevant, deal holding for now
Algorithmic/Quant Flows 6 7 ↑ Bearish Systematic trading influence is rising
Geopolitics (excl. Russia/Ukraine) 6 6.5 ↑ Neutral Slight increase, mostly latent risks
ETF/Institutional Flows 5 6 ↑ Bearish Slower, but still influential
Jewelry/Tech Demand 4.5 5.5 ↑ Bullish Tech/jewelry more important now
U.S. Debt/Fiscal Risk 5 5.5 ↑ Bullish Gaining attention with deficit concerns
Crypto Market Volatility 4 5 ↑ Bullish Correlation growing, but inconsistent
China Property Risk N/A 5 NEW Bullish Added due to emerging Asian risk
Physical Supply Disruption 3.5 4 ↑ Bullish Minor, only spikes on rare events
________________________________________
🥇 Bottom Line:
Gold’s retreat reflects a rebalancing of risk and yield, but the stage is set for sudden moves—especially if the Fed blinks, the dollar falters, or new shocks emerge. The top three catalysts (Fed, Dollar, Central Bank buying) are especially worth watching as we head into the second half of 2025.
XAU/USD 4H Technical Analysis 13 June 2025Market Structure & Bias:
On the 4H chart, gold has broken out of a recent sideways range and formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This “break of structure” (BOS) through the old swing high confirms a bullish bias.
Price action respects key support zones (demand areas) on retracements, suggesting underlying buying interest. The overall bias is bullish, driven by risk‐off sentiment. Support and resistance act as natural pause/reversal zones
For example, a demand zone/order block around ~3390–3400 (from the prior swing low) has been tested and held, fueling the recent rally.
Likewise, an imbalance (fair value gap) left below 3400 could attract buyers if price returns. We also note that a change of character (CHOCH) would occur only if price breaks below a higher-low; so far that has not happened.
In short, gold’s 4H market structure is bullish (higher highs/lows) and the trend looks set to continue upward unless a strong reversal forms. Key Levels (4H): We use classic pivot points to mark critical levels (using the last 4H high, low, close). Pivot points can project future support and resistance.
Based on recent swings, key levels are:
Pivot: 3424 (calculated from last bar’s H/L/C)
Support 1: 3413
Support 2: 3399
Support 3: 3374
Resistance 1: 3438
Resistance 2: 3449
Resistance 3: 3474
Price currently hovers just below R1. These levels align with congestion zones and Fib retracements (50–61.8% of the last $3290–3427 upswing), so expect active bidding near S1–S2 and selling around R1–R2.
Intraday 1H Trade Setups
Buy Zone ~3395–3405 (Bullish OB/Demand):
Entry: Long on dips into the order-block/demand area near 3395–3405 (just above S1).
Stop: ~3385 (≈$10 below entry zone).
Targets: TP1 ≈ 3438 (Resistance 1), TP2 ≈ 3450 (near R2).
Reason: This zone aligns with a prior institutional order block/demand and a 61.8% Fib retrace of the recent rally. Price has shown bounce here before, so a bullish reaction is likely.
Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle (e.g. bullish engulfing or pin bar) on 1H in this zone, or a market structure low (MSL) turning point. A break back above the high of that candle can serve as confirmation to enter.
Sell Zone ~3435–3445 (Bearish Retrace):
Entry: Short near resistance around 3435–3445 (just below R1–R2).
Stop: ~3455 (≈$10 above entry zone).
Targets: TP1 ≈ 3413 (Support 1), TP2 ≈ 3399 (Support 2).
Reason: This area is the upper end of the recent range. It contains a minor supply zone and the R1–R2 pivots. A liquidity sweep (stop-hunt) may occur above recent highs.
If price loses momentum here, expect a pullback.
Trigger: Watch for a bearish price action signal (e.g. a bearish engulfing candle or a double-top swing) on 1H. A break of the immediate lower low (lower than the last minor swing) would confirm a short-term change of character and signal entry.
Breakout Long ~3449+:
Entry: Long on a sustained break above R2 (≈3450). Confirm entry when price closes above 3449 on 1H.
Stop: ~3424 (just under the Pivot).
Targets: TP1 ≈ 3474 (Resistance 3), TP2 ≈ 3495+ (new highs).
Reason: A clean breakout of 3450 would indicate strong bullish order flow and trigger stop-run triggers. This would be a continuation trade in line with the 4H uptrend.
Trigger: A bullish candle closing above 3449 (ideally with above-average size) or a 1H break of structure (higher high over 3449) would signal entry.
Takeaway: Gold remains in a bullish 4H trend; focus on buying dips into demand zones and watch for clear candlestick triggers at support/resistance.
What is Gold Silver Spread?What is gold silver spread? How to understand them to determine the market direction.
Reuters mentioned that the gold-silver ratio dropped from 105 to 94. What does this mean? Does it indicate that silver is about to trend higher, or is it a sign that gold will continue its trend?
Micro Silver Futures
Ticker: SIL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
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XAUUSD H4 I Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 3403.57, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 3472, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, adding a significant level for a potential bearish reversal.
The stop loss will be placed at 3347.94, an overlap support.
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Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3472.00, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, adding a significant level for a potential bearish reversal
Our take profit will be at 3403.57, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 2529.80, above the 127.2% Fib extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullislh continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 3,374.04
1st Support: 3,348.45
1st Resistance: 3,414.78
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Bullish rise?COPPER has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.7862
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 4.7410
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 4.8881
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,390.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 3,426.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 3,343.57
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CHFJPY - How To Enter This MASSIVE 1700pip Swing Trade!As promised - here’s the lower timeframe breakdown after hitting 100+ likes.
We’re in wave 5, currently moving cleanly into the swing zone. Since wave 5 typically forms 5 subwaves, all we needed was to connect points 2 and 4 to draw our entry trendline.
Trade Idea:
- Entry on break of the orange trendline
- Stops above recent highs after entry
- Aggressive option: Enter inside the sell zone with stops above invalidation
Targets:
- TP1: 165.00 (≈1300 pips)
- TP2: 161.50 (≈1700 pips)
- Optional: Leave a runner for the longer swing move
Scroll down for the full 4H breakdown.
CHFJPY - 1700 Pip Reversal Incoming!The last time we looked at CHFJPY was back in October 2024, where we forecasted a large ABC correction. Fast forward to now - that correction is nearly complete!
We're currently in the 5th subwave of wave C, and everything points toward a massive drop setting up. We expect a move of at least 1500 pips.
On the Daily timeframe, structure is clear:
- Clean 5-3-5 ABC correction
- Price is approaching a key sell zone
- A clear entry trendline is in place — couldn’t ask for a cleaner setup
Trade Idea:
- Watch for rejection within the sell zone
- Aggressive entry: Inside sell zone with stops above invalidation
- Conservative entry: On break of trendline, stops above the break candle
Targets:
TP1: 165.00 (≈1300 pips)
TP2: 161.50 (≈1700 pips)
Optional: Leave a runner for a long-term swing
Let me know what you think in the comments.
See below for our last VIP setup for CHFJPY which played out perfectly. 1000pips secured!
Good luck and as always, trade safe!
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
XAUUSD Daily Plan — June 13, 2025 By GoldFxMinds👋 Hello traders, and welcome to your full preparation for tomorrow’s gold session.
Gold continues to respect its structural map while liquidity traps remain active on both sides of the range. We’ve seen clean sweeps and fast reactions this week, but tomorrow brings a new catalyst: key U.S. data combined with fresh geopolitical tensions that may fuel additional volatility before the weekly close.
🌐 MACRO & GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK:
📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations are scheduled tomorrow:
Consumer Sentiment ➔ 52.2
Inflation Expectations ➔ 6.6%
These data points often trigger sharp USD moves and liquidity grabs.
🌍 Geopolitical tension has increased as President Trump authorized the evacuation of U.S. personnel from several Middle East locations due to rising threats in the region, particularly concerning the Iran nuclear situation.
This development triggered sharp moves across commodities, with oil rallying strongly.
Gold remains well-supported in this environment as global risk sentiment deteriorates.
Traders should expect elevated intraday volatility and potential liquidity sweeps on both sides as markets digest these developments.
🔎 The combination of macro data and geopolitical risk creates highly reactive conditions where liquidity hunts may precede any clear directional moves.
🔎 STRUCTURE OVERVIEW:
Price remains inside premium territory after recent bullish expansions.
Liquidity has already been taken above and below earlier this week, but additional traps may unfold before Friday’s close.
Larger structure remains bullish while short-term supply zones may attract quick inducements.
Tomorrow's flow will likely begin with manipulation during or after news, before real momentum develops.
🎯 BIAS
Main bias: Controlled bullish, but highly reactive inside premium.
As long as price holds above 3340, bulls remain in control on higher timeframe.
However, premium zones above 3395 may act as liquidity traps, inviting fast selloffs after inducements.
Best opportunities likely to come from either:
Controlled retracement into buy zones for continuation higher.
Fast spikes into premium traps for short-term sell opportunities.
Patience will be critical as both news and geopolitical headlines may trigger manipulations before real trend unfolds.
🔑 KEY ZONES TO WATCH:
BUY ZONES
🔵 3368 - 3360
Intraday pullback zone.
Look for minor liquidity dips followed by bullish rejection.
Targets: 3390 → 3405.
🔵 3348 - 3340
Deeper liquidity pocket into H4 imbalance and OB.
Engage only after strong downside sweep with sharp bullish reaction.
Targets: 3380 → 3396.
🔵 3325 - 3312
Extreme HTF liquidity zone.
Valid only if aggressive liquidation occurs into deeper discount.
Targets: 3360 → 3380.
SELL ZONES
🔴 3398 - 3405
First premium inducement area.
Look for fast spikes with M15 bearish rejection candles.
Targets: 3370 → 3348.
🔴 3412 - 3420
Secondary premium trap zone.
Valid only after upside wick rejection.
Targets: 3385 → 3355.
🔴 3435 - 3445
Maximum stop-hunt exhaustion zone.
Only valid if price aggressively squeezes into final liquidity.
Targets: 3390 → 3360.
⚠ TRADING REMINDER:
Friday’s session will likely be driven by both news and geopolitical headlines. Let liquidity play out inside the zones, wait for clear rejection signals, and execute with full confirmation. No chasing — sniper discipline only. 🎯
💎 Hit that 🚀 if you found this plan helpful.
👉 Feel free to follow for daily gold plans and share your thoughts in the comments.
We remain disciplined. We trade structure.
🌙 Rest well tonight — tomorrow we execute with precision and control.
— GoldFxMinds
Despite ongoing supply restrictions PPLT trendsAs uncertainty in US equity and job future rises a trend appears in precious metals and bonds. The demand for natural resources continues to grow despite tariff concerns. Trumps PGM policies threatened to shake the market, however, majority of platinum is mined in countries with less strict tariff restrictions and even in the US.; infact, South Africa is the largest producer of platinum with Zimbabwe holding significant reserves, Russia is also a leading force. In addition to Canada- where an independent researcher Jayanth Chennamangalam is exploring the legalities of an exploration to mine platinum in space from craters on the moon. Both PPLT and PLTM have seen resent up growth, trying to push back to their highs of the early 2020s. I have taken the mean of 7 angles representing our highest and lowest points at approx 50°or greater and attached it to our new low- the cross section of this angle and the resistance point drawn from our all time high estimate we are ahead of schedule for reaching our all time high in Sept 2025.
"Within our updated palladium forecasts to 2029f, we expect market deficits to last until 2027f (previously 2025f) before market surpluses gradually build from 2028f. Given ongoing uncertainties, this report does not fully capture the impact of Trump’s policies on PGM demand, but we do not expect them to be of sufficient magnitude to materially change the platinum and palladium deficits laid out herein. "
(platinuminvestment.com)
We could have anticipated this upcoming growth by paying close attention to the K line cross and divergence on our Stochastic oscillator (14,3,3).
"C:\Users\ChrisPC\Downloads\PPLT_2025-06-12_15-47-20.png"
The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 12:
Analysis of key factors
Influence of CPI data
The core CPI in the United States in May only increased by 0.1%, which was lower than expected, indicating that inflation slowed down, and strengthened the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut (it is now expected to cut interest rates by 77 basis points in the next year). After the data was released, gold rose to $3,360/ounce in the short term, and the US dollar index plunged, reflecting the rise in risk aversion.
However, we need to be vigilant about the subsequent market's revision of inflation expectations, especially if the Fed releases hawkish signals at the June interest rate meeting.
Key technical points
Resistance: 3360-3363 (intraday high), 3380-3382 (previous high pressure).
Support: 3300-3310 (short-term psychological barrier), 3293 (recent low).
Daily signal: The 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day moving average, but the gold price temporarily stands on the 5-day moving average, forming a price divergence, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of a high and fall.
Market sentiment
Geopolitics (trade friction, central bank gold purchases) still supports the long-term bullish logic of gold, but the short-term technical side shows that the bullish momentum is insufficient, and there is strong resistance above 3350.
Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term trading
Sell short order strategy: If the gold price rebounds to the 3365-3370 range and is blocked (especially if there is a long upper shadow or the 1-hour chart closes negative), you can short with a light position, with a target of 3330-3310 and a stop loss of 3385.
Buy long order strategy: If it pulls back to 3300-3310 and stabilizes (such as closing a cross star or a positive line rebound), you can short-term long, with a target of 3330-3350 and a stop loss of 3290.
Trend tracking
Breakthrough direction confirmation: If it effectively breaks through 3382, it may open up space to rise to 3400; if it falls below 3293, it will go down to the support of 3270-3250.
Be cautious in following orders: Currently in the range of shocks (3293-3360), avoid blindly following before breaking through the previous high/low.
Risk Warning
Event Risk: Pay attention to the results of the US Treasury auction. Weak demand may further boost gold safe-haven buying.
Technical Correction: If the daily MACD forms a bottom divergence, it may trigger a larger rebound, which needs to be judged in conjunction with the K-line pattern.
Summary: The main focus during the day is high-altitude, and short orders are entered after the key resistance level of 3365-3370 is under pressure. If it quickly breaks below 3330, positions can be increased; long orders are limited to light positions at the support level. Strictly stop loss and wait for trend-following opportunities after the range breaks.