Bitcoin - Probabilistic MapSince traders are literally made of particles, it's vital to know the principles of their behavior in micro scale. Some people even use planetary cycles to implement into charting. But I believe the answer is deep in quantum world of probabilities - the fabric of reality itself.
Reference to Quantum Mechanics
The universe itself prohibits 100% prediction accuracy. This is called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's the fundamental building blocks of Quantum Mechanics. In order to predict particles behavior, all you need are just 2 quantities/data/features:
1) Position of the particle
2) Momentum of the particles.
If you know it's position and it's momentum, you can easily predict it's trajectory. So if you have position and momentum data of all particles in the universe, and you have unlimited computational power, you can predict their behavior (interaction, movement, etc.), and basically predict the future (stock market, weather, natural disaster, etc).
However, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that it is impossible to collect information of particles's position and momentum with 100% certainty. The more certain you know about particle's position, the less certain it's momentum" and vice versa.
So if somehow with the unlimited computational power you can predict particle's position at time with 100% accuracy, then your prediction error for its velocity will be infinity, which prevent you for making accurate further predictions, rendering your model useless.
Hence, it's theoretically impossible to make 100% accurate prediction even with unlimited data and unlimited computational power.
So Is The Universe deterministic or probabilistic?
100% prediction accuracy also means the universe is deterministic - there's only one possible outcome of the future. Einstein was on this side, citing "God doesn't play with dice". On the other hand, folks like Heisenberg, Max Born, Schrodinger, Oppenheimer, etc.., the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics, viewed the future as set of possible outcomes each having it's own probability.
Since market couldn't care less about anyone's subjective forecasts, I do predictions solely based on historic price dynamics in macro scale to stay objective and true with the market pulse rather than be bared with my endless interpretations of patterns. I don't need my consciousness to interpret because we already have a data derived from collective consciousnesses to work with. Chart is already a reflection of reality that captures the emotions of participants. In other words, it's a time fractal that exposes the essence of the market across timeframes. In turn the market itself is a function of trading time . These basis justify linking systematic fragments of cycles to work out the capacity of price action. Basically in Fractal Analysis, the question is how can direct metrics of the historic waves geometrically explain current and future price levels.
The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical concept that appears in various aspects of nature. This connection between mathematics and the natural world is a fascinating example of how patterns and structures found in abstract concepts like numbers can manifest in physical reality . Particularly, using Golden Ratio as a key rule that governs order in chaos.
In TradingView, the "Fibonacci Channels" is a great tool to capture the waves (domestic certainty) and turn them into a probabilistic interconnected structure that captures the uncertainty of the market - the entanglement of price action.
To start with it's vital to use log scale where percentages are equally captured in distances. So a 100% a growth, say a vertical distance from $40 to $80 measures the same distance as from $1000 to $2000. Besides, percentages are what drives people to feel emotions which affect market behavior (collective executions). Finding geometric relationship between waves, the use of log scale is a must.
As I've done this before I want to show how market deviates near fibs.
A Direction of 2013 HIGH ⇨ 2017 HIGH with bottom of 2011 gives next bottom 2015 at 0.618 after -86% drop.
And also predicts the COVID bottom in 2019 after -72% drop as well as current level where price has cooled down locally.
We can note that previous ATHs are explained with logarithmic curve.
That's why we'd need another fib channel to connect 2017 HIGH ⇨ 2021 HIGH direction with previous bottom of -86% drop in 2015. FC of that direction predicts bottoms of 2018 (-84%) and covid 2019 (-72%) at 0.618 again.
Together they produce an interference pattern covers significant historic price changes.
To further interpret current levels though the chart itself, we can use line with angle of direction connecting 2021 double tops:
This shows the capacity of how high the market might still grow before next significant correction, if the local fib to the price hasn't yet dimmed the bullish incentive.
Another straight line can be used to connect 2019 COVID LOW (-72%) with 2022 LOW, because we might probably never see such price levels in the nearest future as price has broken out with high rate of change.
Now it needs more time and bearish capacity to go there. This line can indicate the bottom of hypothetical correction, if it happens now. Other than that it's a clear trendline with almost 4Y wavelength.
Since straight lines doesn't exist in nature, I didn't extend them to the right. Now we need a more adaptive version of it to connect recent local bottoms of the trend.
That would be a logarithmic trendline, in other words curves to mimic the function of exponential growth. Therefore falling below it, might indicate a possibility of correction and even reversal. Each day if it fails to grow with the curve, the bears will get depleted. A cross below the logarithmic curve of spreading information would be a confirmation of new bearish incentive. This is simply done to work out boundaries as limits of the function that explains the market.
Corrective wave has a timing of 15 days in respect to its domestic volatility properties, before it becomes bearish impulsive or continues the impulsive bullish wave.
Curves as a function of trading time explain pretty much all historic bullrun growths.
As if there is some kind of gravity that governs the trend or it's the PriceTime that curves with the emerging trend.
Individual cycles can be too curved accordingly.
So the more the price fails to break out that function, the more predictive curve becomes.
Metrics
Moncler: A Stylish Investment on the RiseHello investors,
In this report, we dissect the financial intricacies of a prominent stock, leaving no detail unexplored. From market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratio to revenue conversion and cash reserves, we analyze every facet to equip you with strategic insights. We'll go beyond the numbers and charts, painting a vivid picture of the company's financial health. Moreover will be also sharing with you at the end what is my personal expert opinion and future outlook for the financial details of Moncler.
Moncler is a luxury fashion company with a market capitalization of 16.875 billion EUR. It currently trades at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.05, which indicates that investors are willing to pay 31.05 times the company's earnings per share (EPS). The current Basic EPS (TTM) stands at 2.01 EUR.
Now, let's dive into the Revenue to Profit Conversion for the year 2022:
- Total revenue: 100%
- Gross profit: 68%
- EBITDA: 40%
- Net income: 23%
The Revenue to Profit Conversion indicates that Moncler is generating a reasonable amount of revenue, but the conversion of that revenue into profits is somewhat lower. This could be an area of concern for investors, as a higher gross profit and net income conversion would generally be preferred.
Next, let's examine Moncler's financial health based on key financial metrics for the years 2018 to 2022:
- Debt: The company's debt has increased over the years, reaching 912.78 million EUR in 2022. This increasing debt level is a point of caution and needs to be monitored closely, as it may affect the company's financial flexibility.
- Free Cash Flow: Moncler has shown a fluctuating trend in free cash flow, with significant variations from year to year. While the H1 2023 free cash flow stands at 492.72 million EUR, this could impact the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or return value to shareholders.
- Cash and Equivalents: Moncler has maintained a relatively stable level of cash and equivalents over the years, which provides a degree of liquidity and financial strength.
Now, let's analyze the Financial Position based on the figures from 2022:
- Short-term Assets: 1.62 billion EUR
- Short-term Liabilities: 963.71 million EUR
- Long-term Assets: 3.02 billion EUR
- Long-term Liabilities: 773.31 million EUR
Moncler's financial position seems relatively strong, with a higher value of assets compared to liabilities, both in the short and long term. However, it's important to keep an eye on the company's debt levels and how they might impact its financial position in the future.
Regarding the company's earnings per share (EPS) history and projections:
- EPS in 2020: 1.18 EUR
- EPS in 2021: 1.53 EUR
- EPS in 2022: 2.24 EUR
- H1 2023: 0.54 EUR
Moncler has shown an increasing trend in EPS, which is generally positive. However, the H1 2023 EPS has seen a decline compared to the previous year. This dip could be due to various factors, and it's crucial to closely monitor the reasons behind it to assess its potential impact on future performance.
Now, let's review the financial statements for H1 2022, H2 2022, and H1 2023:
- H1 2022:
- Total revenue: 918.38 million EUR
- Gross profit: 576.21 million EUR
- Operating income: 180.17 million EUR
- Pretax income: 168.54 million EUR
- Net income: 211.25 million EUR
- H2 2022:
- Total revenue: 1.68 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 1.19 billion EUR
- Operating income: 594.38 million EUR
- Pretax income: 578.79 million EUR
- Net income: 395.44 million EUR
- H1 2023:
- Total revenue: 1.14 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 731.59 million EUR
- Operating income: 217.79 million EUR
- Pretax income: 206.47 million EUR
- Net income: 145.35 million EUR
Moncler's financial statements show an overall positive trend in revenue, gross profit, and net income. However, the H1 2023 figures indicate a decline in net income compared to H2 2022. It's essential to assess the reasons behind this decline and evaluate whether it's a short-term setback or a potential cause for concern.
Future Outlook:
As for me, my rating for Moncler stock would be cautiously optimistic. The company has demonstrated strong financials, stable cash reserves, and a consistent revenue stream. The increasing EPS until 2022 indicates growth and profitability.
However, there are some concerns that need to be closely monitored. The rising debt level and fluctuating free cash flow could impact the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives or handle unforeseen economic challenges.
The decline in H1 2023 net income raises questions about the company's performance during this period. To make a more accurate assessment, it's crucial to investigate the reasons behind this decline and evaluate the company's strategies for addressing potential challenges.
In conclusion, Moncler appears to be a solid luxury fashion company with growth potential, but potential investors should conduct thorough research and analysis to make informed decisions. The financial health and future outlook should be continually monitored, considering the evolving market conditions and economic landscape.
Disclaimer : Please note that the future behavior of the stock is subject to market volatility, industry trends, and global economic conditions. I highly recommend you guys staying updated with the company's quarterly reports and financial statements for a more accurate evaluation of its performance and prospects. Additionally, all of the information that I used can be found in the trading view app related to MONC financial details.
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all.
The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange.
So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data.
The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it.
Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action:
1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times;
2) Economic releases;
3) Commitment of traders reports;
4) Significant news;
5) Changes in yield curves;
6) "Fundamental" stock data;
7) Open interest;
8) etc etc etc
One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity.
That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 30.08 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 30.08 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (<1 Day)
40:60- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (<1 Week)
50:50
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month
80:20 - Bullish:Bearish
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Alot of interesting data at the moment, in the short-term everything is looking quite stretched and oversold most notably with an ascending wedge forming, along with a few sell signals on resistance, we will need some volume to break up out of this at the moment it is holding, I am leaning quite bearish in the short term due to this with a break down of the triangle to potentially 19.5k - 19.8k area of support. A break up however will move to $21.7k with little resistance in the way.
The long term however is a different story with some big bullish signals showing now most notably the contrarian reversal signal on the weekly for alpha prime sat on a macro trendline support, this coupled with the newly formed descending wedge on the daily is telling me we are not far off an imminent push up over the next 4 weeks, this could be the start....bull rally loading!
Otherwise coming to the end of the consolidation now so biggish move expected.
Technical Analysis Bullish Factors:
+ Wave Dip buy signal on the daily (very strong)
+ Contrarian Reversal on the Weekly on Macro Trendline
+ Descending Wedge on the 1D
+ Wave Dip Buy Forming on the 1Day
Technical Analysis Bearish Factors:
- Head & Shoulders on the 5min
- Pullback signal on the 1hr
- Wave trend Oversold on 1hr
- Peak Signal on the Alpha Wave on 1hr
- Weekly Pivot Filled
- CME Gap filled
- 200 EMA resistance
- Under key resistance
- Ascending Wedge
NEWS:
Bull:
+ Iran passes law enabling Bitocin and crypto payments for imports
cryptopanic.com
+ Indonesia's biggest tech company, GoTo, just bought a Bitcoin exchange.
+ Qatar grants the country's first digital payments services license to iPay.
+ Singapore High Court grants #crypto lender Holdnaut protection from investors.
+ 7,507 $BTC ($151 million) has been taken off exchanges in the last 7 days.
+ The whales addresses controlling 1k to 10k BTC are starting to accumulate coins on-chain
Bear:
- Chinese police arrest over 200 people linked to one of the country’s largest banking scandals ever.
- FBI issues #DeFi crypto vulnerabilities warning.
METRICS (Last 24 hours):
EXCHANGE:
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
MINERS:
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
Moderately selling
Last Value:
-0.90908933
24H%:
-10%
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
Moderate revenue
Last Value:
0.5305056
24H%:
-2%
ON-CHAIN:
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
Realizing loss
Last Value:
0.99056737
24H%:
-1%
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
Low long-term holders' movement
Last Value:
0.28571428
24H%:
+100%
- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Capitulation phase where they are currently facing unrealized losses. It indicates the decreasing motive to realize loss which leads to a decrease in sell pressure.
Captulation
Last Value:
-0.05740991
24H%:
-35%
- Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -36.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 19.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 24.00% compared to yesterday.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
DERIVATIVES
- Funding Rate - Short position traders are dominant and are willing to pay long traders.
Last Value:
-0.00450709
24H%:
+101%
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers.
Buy:
0.53551546
Sell:
0.46448454
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend
Last Value:
8,591,474,245.29
24H%:
0%
7D%:
+1%
+ Liquidation - 19857239.24of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Long:
3,734,557.07
Short:
19,857,239.24
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Fear & Greed Index - Aug 30, 2022:
Today: 27 (Fear)
Yesterday: 24 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 26 😱
Avg. 2W: 29 😱
Avg. 1M: 33 😣
Avg. 2M: 29 😱
Avg. 3M: 23 😱
Avg. 6M: 24 😱
Avg. 1Y: 33 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $20,327
24h Low: $19,617
24h High: $20,385
MC Change: $12.0B (3.2%)
Dominance: 37.7%
24h: 3.4%
7d: -6.0%
14d: -16.4%
30d: -14.8%
60d: 1.1%
200d: -54.2%
1y: -58.5%
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 20.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 20.08 - #IDEA 🤖
Snapshot:
Short-Term
30:70- Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term
80:20 - Bullish:Bearish
Technical Analysis:
Bullish Scenario:
$20.7K is key to hold if there is any chance at a bullish rally - currently the double bottom is a pretty good sign but a break above $21.4k is required dor the first confirmation and targets will be $21.8k - no predictions beyond that.
Bearish Scenario:
Losing $20.7k then it will be a drop $20k with likely bounce and potential consolidation although high chance of breakdown to $18.8k Weekend volume is erratic at best so wait for confirmation of new week to asses true trajectory.
Bullish Factors:
+ Buy Signal Printed on the Hash Ribbon Indicator
+ Printed a double bottom on the 1hr
Bearish Factors:
- Broken down on macro channel and looking like retest
- DXY still pumping
- Active Addresses turned negative
- Transactions turned negative
Key News:
Bull:
+ US FED says cryptocurrencies present opportunities to banks, customers, and the whole financial system!
+ Starlink ( Elon Musk company) and World Mobile will be working together
Bear:
-
Exchange
+ Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
Miners
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
Moderately selling
Last Value:
0.26747583
24H%:
-139%
/ Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average.
Moderate revenue
Last Value:
0.6446955
24H%:
+15%
On-Chain
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Capitulation phase where they are currently facing unrealized losses. It indicates the decreasing motive to realize loss which leads to a decrease in sell pressure.
+ Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 38.00% compared to yesterday.
- Active Addresses - The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -52.00% compared to yesterday.
- Transactions - The total number of transactions has decreased by -56.00% compared to yesterday.
Sentiment
+ Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
Derivatives
- Funding Rate - Short position traders are dominant and are willing to pay long traders.
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers.
- Liquidation - 21454466.85 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend
Last Value:
8,332,599,645.07
24H%:
0%
7D%:
-13%
Fear & Greed Index - Aug 20, 2022:
Today: 29 (Fear)
Yesterday: 33 (Fear)
Avg. 1W: 38 😣
Avg. 2W: 38 😣
Avg. 1M: 35 😣
Avg. 2M: 26 😱
Avg. 3M: 21 😱
Avg. 6M: 25 😱
Avg. 1Y: 35 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $20,849
24h Low: $20,925
24h High: $23,246
MC Change: -$44.0B (-9.9%)
Dominance: 38.1%
24h: -10.3%
7d: -14.6%
14d: -10.2%
30d: -10.6%
60d: 1.0%
200d: -45.9%
1y: -55.4%