Watch for the USDMXN breakoutThe next days will be decisive for FX_IDC:USDMXN now that NAFTA talks have officially begun . In the chart there are 4 relevant price levels (shown in bold green). And 2 short-term price levels (in thin red).
If the price breaks the short-term resistance at 18.04 then we would likely see the price reaching 18.40 or even 19.28 if NAFTA negotiations don't favor Mexico.
If the price breaks the short-term support at 17.48 then we may expect the price to reach the Pre-Trump support level at at 17.16.
Events that would favor the first scenario would be:
A full withdrawal from the NAFTA deal.
While the second scenario would be more likely in the event of:
A soft NAFTA "tweak".
An increased feeling of a "Trump's failed agenda".
An armed conflict between the US and North Korea.
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"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. " - Warren Buffett
Mexicanpeso
USD/MXN 1H Chart: Channel UpUSD/MXN 1H Chart: Channel Up
The American Dollar is appreciating against the Mexican Peso in a medium-term and short-term ascending channels.
At the moment, the channel consists of three reaction highs and three reaction lows and, thus, might be cease to exist in the upcoming days.
The fact that the currency pair is gradually approaching to the lower trend-line of the senior channel indicates on validity of such scenario.
The slip to the bottom seems unlikely because the rate proved to be quite sensitive to the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, which are moving along the pattern.
A number of technical indicators also vote for an ascending movement.
On the other hand, 60% of traders remain bearish on this currency pair.
In addition, there is a need to take into account an impact from a release of the US macroeconomic data today and tomorrow.
POSITIONING | MXN Peso Shorts ... Are looking a little less extreme than they were before Trump's inauguration, whilst the currency represents great value. I'm inclined to take the under on Trump's doomsayers and this trade is the best way to express that view while collecting carry (presuming realised volatility continues to calm).
MXNUSD @ daily @ closed around ATL friday & still under pressureThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close(1482 Cross-Rates)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
MXNSGD @ daily @ less than 2% above historical all-time lowsThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (1482 Cross-Rates)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Just my thoughts right now.. I think about the USDMXN long for the long term, hoping to correct a little more to the down side but right now im just watching to enter the market at the lowest point to grab a long position.. stay tuned.
Thing to watch
- US presidential campaign news this week
- Economic data from Mexico
- International Crude Oil prices