Smart Money is Positioned to LONG Mexican Peso - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Mexican Peso (6M)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they have been since March 2023 - bullish. Small Specs most short they have been since June 2020 = bearish.
OI Analysis: Very low OI. Generally, bottoms are associated with low OI (public and large specs are not interested in this market, while commercials heavily adding to longs is bullish)
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries = bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist , POIV, %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Mexicanpesolong
I see a bump for the Mexican Peso and then a dive after summerI anticipate the antiglobalism movement will enrich Mexico for cheap labor (unless Trump gets elected then the Peso will melt down due to the tariffs) where China is already passing our own tariffs by exporting to Mexico where it gets a new shiny label and tariffs don't apply. I believe a billionaire has made moves to gather up the trucking and logistic companies in Mexico because of the growth. Afterwards, no matter what, the dollar TVC:DXY will soar to 140-160+ until itself too implodes leading to hyperinflation in the USA which will catalyze an opportunity to move to CBDC's based on social credit scores (negative interest rates).
I also see the TTM squeeze executing on all major TF's so a major move is coming!! Usually we see a bounce of the opposite side as a fake breakout, then a squeeze in the opposite direction lasting for 8 TF bars. Multiple consecutive TF's hint at a massive move and alignment
USDMXN forming bullish CRAB | A good long opportunity aheadPriceline of US Dollar / Mexican Peso Forex pair is forming a bullish CRAB pattern and soon it will be entered in potential reversal zone insha Allah.
Volume profile of complete pattern is showing less interest of traders here
RSI is oversold
But MACD is strong bearish and Stochastic is oversold but did not give any bull cross sofar, so I would suggest when the price action will be entered in PRZ area then wait for MACD to turn weak bearish or for stochastic bull cross then buy.
I have used Fibonacci sequence to set the targets:
Buy between: 19.47392 to 19.25942
Sell between: 19.64064 to 20.04382
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
Fundies Show Weakness, Technicals Show OversoldTo be brief, Mexican growth is slowing with prospects for the G20 economy to slow further. Technicals oscillators shown below indicate a buy as well. This buy is a bit crowded however, so I wouldn't be surprised if the contrarian sell comes in strong. But I lean long.
If you like my analysis, please feel free to check out my other work at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com