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USD/MXN: Sheinbaum Era Begins Mexico makes history today as Claudia Sheinbaum becomes the country’s first female president. With nearly 35.5 million votes—representing close to 60% of the electorate—Sheinbaum secured more votes than any president in Mexican history. Since the election, the Mexican peso has declined by around 13%. Recent price action has moved sideways as markets assess Sheinbaum's economic policies. However, traders anticipating a sharper selloff in USD/MXN may need to wait, as the pair potentially remains upwardly biased with the 20 Day and 50 Day EMA outlining possibly areas of support.
by BlackBull_Markets
Peso Pressure Ahead of Major MXN Events Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon. July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation. Rising prices in July could complicate any plans for the central bank to lower its key interest rate this week. In late June, the central bank opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged after a rate cut in March, the first since mid-2021 when it began its tightening cycle. The Mexican Peso has extended its losing streak to four consecutive days against the US Dollar, marking ten losses in the last eleven sessions. The currency closed above the psychological 19.00 level for two days, having surpassed the previous year-to-date high of 18.99. Market momentum could favor sellers, with the Relative Strength Index indicating overbought conditions. The immediate resistance might stand at the current year-to-date high of 20.22. On the downside, a breach of the 19.00 support level could open the path to the August stumble close to 18.50, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 18.20.
by BlackBull_Markets
Long on Mexican Pesos: Technical Indicators and Market AnalysisThe Mexican Peso has recently reached a Demand area that we have been monitoring for some time, and it has shown a strong rebound from this level. By examining technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic, we can observe that the Peso is currently in an oversold condition, suggesting a potential upward movement. Furthermore, by analyzing the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, we see additional support for a bullish outlook. The seasonality trends of the Mexican Peso also align with this perspective, indicating that now is an opportune time to consider a long position. Given these technical and seasonal indicators, we have decided to open a long position on this futures contract. The confluence of the oversold technical indicators, supportive COT data, and favorable seasonal trends provides a strong foundation for our bullish stance on the Mexican Peso. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Mexican Pesos in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6M1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
Crazy people making crazy claimsRecently news outlets have been reporting in 2 things about the US-Mexico relationship 1st is the super peso. 2nd is the lowering of interest rates in the USA. When looking at the news I saw multiple articles contradicting themselves. Saying things like "the mexican peso got stronger because of the rasing inflation" or as in this one where it says the "the advancment is atributed to the coments of Jerome Powell, which gave hope to rate cuts" as you can see in this one : elmanana.com.mx Meanwhile you have this one which shows raising inflation in Mexico, which I have to admit it's true, the cost of living in mexico is rising. This means that every day the mexican peso es less able to afford goods or services. www.msn.com On the other hand with the united states' recent slight decrease in inflation has prompet the FED to be more inclined to realize a rate cut. This in order to boost the markets before the elections. This is very likely to excite the markets, as money from bonds will likely migrate to the stock market. Contrast this with Mexico where the central bank is claiming to reach it's inflation target by the end of 2025. www.msn.com For these people I have some basic economic facts they should be aware of. When you have rasing inflation your currency doen't apreciate it depreciates. Thats because you aren't able to afford buying as much with the same amount. Therefore if the inflation of you currency increases while the inflation on another currency decreases then the most likely outcome is that the decresing inflation currency will apreaciate in contrast to the other one. Aditionally if the US market begins to grow at a faster rate in contrast to the mexican market then the currency will also depreciate. Therefore saysing that the lowering of interest rates in the USA is good for the mexican peso is just insane.
Long
by DarkMessiah777
Is the mexican index in danger?Even with great companies conforming this index, it's impossible to ignore the effect that Claudia Sheinbaum's victory had over the markets. It's shocking to see the pessimism of the markets after her victory. Unfortunately, this has now created an infliction point in the BMV:ME index. With no recent clear support, it could be possible for price to drop quite a bit more, opening great buying opportunities. However, if price does not begin to reverse this trend soon, it's possible that we will test lower lows.
BMV:MEEducation
by DarkMessiah777
Fed keeps rates steady, Banxico up next The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% while continuing its balance sheet reduction as planned since May 2023. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) might announce a rate cut tomorrow. It's anticipated that Banxico could decrease its interest rate from 11.25% to 11%, potentially applying pressure on the Mexican peso. This could drive the USD/MXN rate closer to the 17.00 mark, diverging further from its 10-year low. Some Fib levels from its recent swing higher could also be some interesting, more assessable, targets However, the possibility of a rate cut from Banxico is not guaranteed, given potential divisions within its Governing Council. Recent speeches by officials indicate a 3-2 split, with some members leaning towards a more accommodative approach, while others like Jonathan Heath and Irene Espinosa Cantellano favor a hawkish stance.
by BlackBull_Markets
Top 7 inflation-induced trading opportunities this weekThis week, the focus of many traders will be on US inflation data, which will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The forecasts indicate a potential 0.2% increase in both headline inflation for December and the core rate. On an annual basis, the headline inflation rate is anticipated to rebound to 3.2% from November's five-month low of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate is likely to ease to 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021. This crucial data will be released on Thursday. In the midst of the US inflation focus, there are noteworthy inflation data releases from other countries, including Switzerland, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and Russia. This diverse set of data presents many potential trading opportunities for USD pairs throughout the week: Monday: Switzerland Inflation Rate Tuesday: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator Tuesday: Mexico Inflation Rate Thursday: Brazil Inflation Rate (before US inflation data) Thursday: China Inflation Rate (after US inflation data) Friday: India Inflation Rate Friday: Russia Inflation Rate
by BlackBull_Markets
Valero Pipeline // BTFD Thesis: This is a trade made by Senator Thomas Carper last month. Upon reviewing and doing my research, it seems the volume of one of the pipelines in the gulf of Mexico controlled by Valero Energy has has a significant increase in volume. Looks like a bullish year ahead for Valero! Here are the levels I will be interested in. Please note that this is a preliminary research and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
NYSE:VLOLong
by PudgyProdigy
Mexico’s Manufacturing Boom Lifted Peso to 5-Year HighCME: USD/Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ) What’s the strongest currency in 2023? Hint: Not the US dollar. • Although dollar index has rallied nearly 6% in the past two months, it gained just 2.1 points, or +1.9%, year-to-date, to settle at 105.583 as of September 22, 2023. • British Pound futures ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:6B ) was up 2.0% YTD, to close at $1.225 per pound sterling. • Euro FX ($6E) gained a meager 0.7% YTD, to $1.069 per euro. • Chinese Yuan ( FWB:CNH ) declined 5.5% YTD, from 6.991 to 7.295 yuan per dollar. • Japanese Yen ($6J) has lost over 11% YTD, from 130 to 146 yen per dollar. While most foreign currencies were under pressure as the US Federal Reserve embarks on the monetary tightening journey, Mexico boasts the world’s strongest currency this year. • Each dollar was exchanged for 19.70 Mexican Peso on January 1st. The exchange rate is now 17.41 as of last Friday. For the Peso, this represents a 12.7% gain. The strength of the Peso is built upon Mexico’s thriving economy. Riding on the waves of resurgent exports and booming manufacturing, Mexico has overtaken China as the biggest US trading partner. According to the latest US Census Bureau data, Mexico made up 15% of US imports in July, while China had a 14.6% share. From Offshoring to Nearshoring For decades, U.S. companies moved manufacturing offshore to lower production cost. Free trade helped grow global economy and lift the living standard of poorer nations. However, the world has experienced a series of trade disruptions lately: the US-China trade conflict, the Covid-19 pandemic and its supply chain disruptions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the export controls that followed. Their cumulative impact has called into question the vision of a globalized economy. To “de-risk” the potential disruptions in global supply chain, new trends has emerged to replace offshoring, namely, “Reshoring”, “Friend-shoring” and “Nearshoring”. Reshoring is the opposite of offshoring, with US companies bringing production back to the States. According to the “Reshoring Initiative 2022 Data Report”, this phenomenon contributed to the creation of 360K manufacturing jobs in 2022. • Cross-checking this claim with BLS nonfarm payroll data, I found that manufacturing employment is 13.0 million in August, up 106K year-on-year. “Made-in-America” is one of the reasons supporting a solid US job market. • While reshoring raises the cost of production, robotics and industrial automation offset some of the labor costs. Government funding and tax incentives also help. Friend-shoring encourages companies to shift manufacturing away from authoritarian states and toward allies with shared values. Countries such as India, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, and Brazil could benefit from friend-shoring as plants, jobs and investments move toward these nations deemed sufficiently trustworthy by the United States. • Diversifying the concentration of global supply chain also helps businesses become more resilient to shocks like war, famine, political change, or the next pandemic. Nearshoring is one step down from reshoring. The key word is “Near”. By placing plants in North and Central America, particularly in Mexico, US companies could source imports from closer to home. • In addition to lowering production cost, nearshoring also has the benefits of cheaper transportation, lower import tariffs, shorter production cycle, and faster response time. • Spanish, a common language, stands as a unique advantage for training local workforce and better communication between the US customers and their nearshoring suppliers. The Next World Factory Mexico stands to benefit from both friend-shoring and nearshoring. Made-in-Mexico-for-America is nothing new. It started in 1994 with the signing of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). However, it did not give a big boost for Mexico then. Since the year it took effect, Mexico’s economy grew at 2.0-2.5% a year, well below par for developing economies, and nowhere near enough to lift millions of Mexicans out of poverty. We could make the case that things would be very different this time. Tesla’s Monterrey Gigafactory serves as a textbook case of why it would work. Two years ago, when Tesla announced plans to open a factory in Texas, it also proposed to build a Gigafactory in Monterrey, the capital of Nuevo León state. Instead of shipping auto parts all the way from China, it made sense to build them close to the US border. “You could drive to California from Monterrey in 3 hours without seeing a red light”, a big advantage promoted by Nuevo León’s trade office. Tesla’s decision triggered a sea change in its supply chain. AGP Group makes windshields, China’s DSBJ makes electronics parts, Italy’s Brembo SpA makes brake— and they’re all setting up new factories near Monterrey. All told, more than 30 companies have moved to Nuevo León since Tesla’s announcement. Foreign direct investment in Mexico is already up more than 40% in 2023. Ultimately, Mexico’s appeal to global businesses rests on its geography and its free trade agreement with the U.S. Comparing to other alternatives, Mexico is attractive because it’s already integrated into the U.S. More investment will flow in as big companies bring their plants and the entire supply chains there one-by-one. While manufacturing for the US is concentrated in dozens of mega industrial parks close to the US-Mexico border now, the growth potential is huge. I am convinced that Mexico would be the next World Factory. “Made-in-Mexico” will be like “Made-in-China” today. Trading Idea with Mexico Peso Futures On May 16, 1972, the IMM (now part of the CME Group) launched seven currency futures contracts: British pounds, Canadian dollars, Deutsche marks, French francs, Japanese yen, Mexican pesos, and Swiss francs. This marks the birth of financial futures, the first time a futures contract is based on something other than physical commodities. The USD/MXN futures ($6M) is one of the earliest financial futures contracts. It is notional on 500,000 Mexican pesos. At Friday closing price of 0.057430, each December 2023 contract (6MZ3) is valued at $28,715. Initial margin for buying or selling one contract is $1,400. On September 14th, the day before Triple Witching Day, the Peso futures reached a high volume of 224,296 contracts, with open interest standing at 252,004. Aside from the fundamental economic factors, the near-ending of Fed rate hikes means that interest-rate parity is in favor of the Pesos. When the world has been focusing on the 525-bp Fed rate hikes in the past two years, Mexico’s Central Bank raised interest rates by 725 basis points during the same period, from 4.0% all the way to 11.25%. At 0.5675, the USD/Peso exchange rate is at 5-year high. However, this is nowhere near its all-time high of 0.1099 reached in March 2002. I am bullish on the Pesos based on the analysis discussed here and would explore a long position. Record export data and new announcement of foreign direct investment could lift the Pesos up further. The risk in long Peso would be the Fed raising interest rates again in November or December meeting. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6M1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
DSVDiscovery Silver recently tested extra long term support on high volume . I'll admit this one is a long shot because they have a lot of hurdles to jump over to get their mine approved in Mexico . That being said i believe the time to buy is when all the bad news is out and things can only get better . Patience required on this one . We may see another retest of .70 but im prepared to hold as i am just getting my feet wet here with a small investment . The wave structure looks to be close to finished and i am hoping to see a move higher soon .
TSX:DSVLong
by SilvaBull
Dollar/Peso Bears about Step on the GasI was amazed to see the recovery the peso had built over the year, it has me honestly surprised, especially knowing the wasteland that is the administration of the Mexican Government funds and budgeting. Regardless, if there is a maxim in trading, it is that price is king, and given the structure, we can appreciate, it all seems to indicate bears are about to take the bulls to the slaughter house. Technically speaking we are fast approaching a trendline dating back to the "08" crisis when the peso lost about half its value in a span of months. A trendline that to this point had remained intact. I expect for the price to react when it comes in contact with the trendline, most likely in the form of some support, this must not be mistaken as the bottom of this downtrend. I am going to be expecting, with a high degree of confidence a new low to be made after the intial bounce of support is made in and around the trendline.
Short
by HydraFinance
When USD Hits Resistance, That's When USDMXN Will Breakdown In today's video I will look into a detail analysis of USDMXN, which is doing quite well compared to the strong USD Index. So my assumption is that when USd index will hit resistance, possibly after the 10 year US notes completed the current fifht wave up, the USDMXN can easily break through the support and will be targeting Feb 2020 pandemic low. Crude oil is also very important for the USDMNX. Price is higher for the last two weeks as the situation between Russia and Ukraine is getting worse. OPEC also decided in its first one-on-one meeting since 2020 to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day from November. So it appears that EU will not have easy task to limit the energy prices. If you like this video, please leave me a comment below and press like. Thank you Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
2
Will the USDMXN run counter to general dollar strength?USDMXN made a rebound this week as the USD restarted its momentum to the upside. The US dollar has found a mild bullish impetus in Jerome Powell’s ECB forum appearance where he reiterated his hawkish outlook for the US economy. Powell believes that the US economy remains well positioned to absorb tighter credit conditions while avoiding recession and rising unemployment. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the USDMXN price is firmly in a consolidation zone between the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. While spending most of the past few days testing the 61.8% level, leading to an eventual strong rejection, the pair is now looking like it wants to test the 50.0% level, possibly forcing a downtrend. Look for a rejection of the 50.0% level, and the creation of a lower high on the downtrend. A breakthrough on its first real test of the 50.0% level would see an emboldened bearish trend encountering the strong 38.2% level. Overcoming the 38.2% level will be no small task for the pair but doing so would see the USDMXN confronting the strong demand zone at around 19.40 and 19.70. This is where you might expect a stubborn level of support, compelling a bounce back to the upside and the creation of the lower low. On the other hand, a break on the 61.8% Fibonacci level to the upside might continue the bullish rebound as viewed on the 4-hour timeframe. In this scenario, the pair might continue to the strong supply zone between 20.4 and 20.7.
by BlackBull_Markets