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Mexico

Will the USDMXN run counter to general dollar strength?USDMXN made a rebound this week as the USD restarted its momentum to the upside. The US dollar has found a mild bullish impetus in Jerome Powell’s ECB forum appearance where he reiterated his hawkish outlook for the US economy. Powell believes that the US economy remains well positioned to absorb tighter credit conditions while avoiding recession and rising unemployment. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the USDMXN price is firmly in a consolidation zone between the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. While spending most of the past few days testing the 61.8% level, leading to an eventual strong rejection, the pair is now looking like it wants to test the 50.0% level, possibly forcing a downtrend. Look for a rejection of the 50.0% level, and the creation of a lower high on the downtrend. A breakthrough on its first real test of the 50.0% level would see an emboldened bearish trend encountering the strong 38.2% level. Overcoming the 38.2% level will be no small task for the pair but doing so would see the USDMXN confronting the strong demand zone at around 19.40 and 19.70. This is where you might expect a stubborn level of support, compelling a bounce back to the upside and the creation of the lower low. On the other hand, a break on the 61.8% Fibonacci level to the upside might continue the bullish rebound as viewed on the 4-hour timeframe. In this scenario, the pair might continue to the strong supply zone between 20.4 and 20.7.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDMXN to Rally to 22Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The forex cross USDMXN is currently in an ascending triangle setup with resistance observed around the 21 price level and the support trend line seen around the higher lows of 20.12 and 20.25 respectively. Expectations are for USDMXN to rally towards the 22 price level. Failure of this move will be seen if USDMXN declines below 20.25 On the longer termed Daily Chart USDMXN is trending higher, with the next level of resistance observed around 21.50 Technical Indicators There has been positive crossovers on USDMXN’s short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) term fractal moving averages. USDMXN is also trading above these respective MAs. The RSI is above 50 and the KST is in a positive mode. This indicates a bullish move in USDMXN. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 20.25 and a target of 21. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.75. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to USDMXN.
Long
by Ceddy86
USDMXN In August the Mexican peso weakened from 19.848 to 20.071 against the US dollar. Economists at MUFG Bank expect MXN to depreciate from the 4Q onwards amid tapering cycle in the United States. Mounting COVID-19 cases and deaths with Delta variant, and sluggish vaccination rollout in Mexico “Assuming that FED tapering starts later this year and it will carry on at a gradual pace during next year, we see room for moderate MXN appreciation in the near-term as market fears over more aggressive tapering ease.” “However, the pace of MXN appreciation tends to be limited by the more concerning COVID-19 scenario in Mexico. The pace of vaccination continues to be sluggish, the number of cases is at record levels and deaths have been increasing as well.” “We now expect the MXN to be at around 20.150 at the end of September.” “From 4Q onwards, there is room for gradual MXN depreciation driven first by the beginning of Fed tapering, followed by the expectation of the FED funds rate hikes that might start later next year/early in 2023.”
by globalsymmetrygroup
USDMXN updates after JacksonThe positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting. Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN. Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The break of the ABCDE triangle with Covid has already been analysed several times, much rather talk about the significance of the next move. Well, it renders the precedent and totally immobility of MXN, Powell confirming the USD offer is starting to expire means breaking strong support is no longer possible. On the technicals we must be clear, the 18 handle contains not a little resentment but rather the ambitious dreams of forcing another move similar to what we saw in 2020, allowing our opponent into a false sense of security with a trap before capitulating as far as the eyes can see. The resistance to the topside is now mostly dead and buried. For those looking to buy, the goal above comes in to play at 22.3x and 22.9x as a ideal extension.
Long
by ridethepig
2
BRLMXN | 2021 Grand Slam Trade📌 Another classical procedure can be witnessed here, the combination of fundamentals and technicals, of BRL and MXN, and a live example of an instrument finding a floor for the long run. This advance would (and of course I am considering) be worth attacking and having some involvement rather than laying bare the base of Brazil and Mexico. The correct play is to wait patiently for a confirmed break and hold long enough for the Peso to flee. Be long Brazil, stay long the Real and play the break as follows: Firstly, the BRL diagram which is showing as with a few other currencies signs of bottoming versus USD, and the following two macro formations of Brazilian inflows and Mexican outflows. These drivers are going to dictate the pace and will allow a breakout on BRLMXN for a +50% move. This is not talking in pips, pips are for pipsqueak's... this is a macro swing, a full blown % move which starts as a hedge and when it begins to work with the break it means we can go HARD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3