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Mexico

USDMXN: Trump talked the pair down, but for how long?I'm bullish on this pair, and the dollar overall, in the longer term, but right now, we're seeing a correction in this trend. Within the next 2-3 days we can get a signal to reenter longs in this pair, so keep an eye on it. Support below is significantly strong, so it wouldn't surprise me that we bottom very soon, and see a sharp continuation of the initial 'Trump induced' uptrend in this pair. The situation in Mexico is deteriorating, and with oil potentially declining, among other factors, it would be logical to see more weakness soon. Keep an eye on it, we'll pick it up after the bottom's confirmed, it won't take long with some luck, else we'll have to rethink our FX strategy and fundamental and technical bias. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GM: Daily viewGM is an excellent company to own for the long term. That being said, outside of a core long term position in it (something like 10% is perfectly fine), we can also trade and profit from volatility, both on the long side (adding trades with trailing stops, and adding to winners) and on the short side (selling calls against our long term longs to profit from corrections). In this case, after today's news, we see that the daily has flashed a 'Time at mode' uptrend signal with a target at 39.57 that has to be hit before January 31st. Since this uptrend's time duration expires just before earnings, it might be wise to reduce your exposure to GM approaching the target, and date, or to at least hedge your downside to protect profits by selling calls. In the case of earnings sending prices way higher, this would ruin the upside, so, the alternative is to start trailing stops periodically (at least on your non-core-long term positions) to reduce risk. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMLong
by IvanLabrie
1
USDMXN. Correction to be activated after Wave 3 hits targetDespite my wrong prediction on USDMXN, I still believe Peso should take some territory from the USD in the upcoming weeks. Wave 3 targets have been hit today and it is a good moment to fall down in Wave 4 of 5. Notice also a huge bearish divergence on Weekly Timeframe Will short this pair once DXY reaches 100 figures as per my DXY charts posted earlier. Will set a SL order at 21 ish and target 17.25 as a TP1.
Short
by captain_smollett
1
USDMXN: Fading the irrational rally, viva Mexico!This morning I bought an $MXF stake at the open, and shorted USDMXN at 20.0022. I think we might be in the presence of an 'ending diagonal triangle', or terminal wedge, in Elliott Wave parlance, in particular according to the Neowave rules. If that's the case, we will a see brutal rally in the Peso, sending USDMXN down to 16.43 in approximately the time the arrow indicates on chart. My clients are long MXF but not in the USDMXN trade, it is a higher risk trade, so only take it if you have higher risk tolerance and don't risk over 1% on it. The initial move in equities and the peso made absolutely no sense in my opinion after discussing it with Tim West. We've been buying on weakness today, along with my clients and the people over at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom -and with great results if I may add-. Apparently Carl Icahn tagged along, buying a neat 1 billion worth of stocks today. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
The #Trump TradeThe Mexican peso has remained volatile due to numerous factors, including the price of crude oil, prospects of the Brexit and, more interestingly, the potential of a Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. The USDMXN had been on a steady bullish trend, and the peso's dramatic nine percent decline going into the first U.S. debate on September 26 was largely in part to the "Trump effect" as he was within two points of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. However, after a series of miscues from Trump and sporadic polling performance, the Mexican peso began to strengthen considerably. A closer look at Donald Trump's immigration policy : Trump aims to protect the jobs, thus wages, through tougher immigration by hindering the flow of undocumented foreign workers and immigrants. The keystone of the immigration plan is to build a physical border-wall, which is not particularly unheard of. For instance, due to the constant flow of political and economic refugees from the Middle East into Europe, many European countries have greatly increased their immigration policies to help monitor refugee movement. Nations, such as Serbia, Bulgaria and Hungary, are clamping down due to the potential safety concerns to its citizens, as well as controlling the financial strain due to the unfettered flow of migrants. Larger, developed nations, like the United Kingdom, is aiming to build a wall to prevent migrants crossing from the "Calais Jungle," which is a French migrant camp of 10,000 looking to cross into Britain. What is concerning for Mexico is that Trump is almost unwilling to alter his plan for a border well while making Mexico pay for it. Trump has proposed that Mexico will pay the U.S. government between $5 and $10 billion as a one time payment or face the consequence freezing all incoming money wires into Mexico. Trump's outline says the Mexican economy benefits from $24 billion from Mexican nationals that work within the U.S. and calls it "de facto welfare." It is true that the Mexican economy greatly benefits, and the blockage of incoming dollars would have a net-negative effect on their economy; it would also have a net-negative affect on the U.S.-Mexican relationship. We expect the peso to remain elevated as long as Hillary Clinton remains ahead in the polls, but, considering the overwhelming evidence of potential collusion between the "mainstream" media and the Clinton campaign, there is a potential for an upset which would undoubtedly send ripples throughout risk assets, including the peso. For the meantime, we can see the USDMXN trending lower to 18.52 with a secondary level near the 200-day EMA. Another interesting "Trump trade" is the RUBMXN. With tensions between the current Obama administration and Russia, as well as elevated rhetoric from Clinton, the ruble could see a great deal of volatility heading into the U.S. election. Trump, who has no obvious ties to Russia, has stated that he would aim to develop a partnership between the two nations. Following the debate, to which a CNN poll containing a meager sample of less than 550 likely voters show Clinton won the debate, the RUBMXN dropped over 1.55 percent. As rhetoric from the Democrats pick up, we expect the ruble to weaken against both the dollar and Mexican peso.
by MacroView_Research
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha
Buy MXNGBP Gartely - great Risk/Reward and good fundamentalsTechnicals We have a Gartely pattern set up here. I am looking to go long at 0.03697, which falls between the 0.786 retracement and 1.272 extension along with 1:1 ratio between the AB and CD legs. There is also a divergence on the Relative Strength Index from a heavily oversold condition, supporting a spike from around the current price. Fundamentals Slumping oil prices damage the prospect for investment in Mexico’s energy industry, while slowing growth in the US is hurting Mexico more, since the US is Mexico's main export market. However, Mexico has the best economic fundamentals in the emerging market, and is heavily undervalued right now, suggesting either a continued consolidation around the current low, or a rebound from this low. Fundamentally, this is a risky trade and could overshoot into the stop loss, but it could also be potentially very rewarding. Profit target I have set an initial profit target based on Fibonacci levels. I expect the second target to be met, and based on the fundamentals above and how they evolve in the coming weeks I will either move the stop loss up to the first profit target if the second is met, or I will close the trade there.
Long
by olly_price
Talk about rejection! Oil destined for $42.00Talk about rejection! Today we saw some crazy dollar strength. As of 3pm, the dollar had made a 100% retracement or 214 bps round-trip from this morning's ECI drop. The market gave a clear signal that it believes - or rather, more likely, wants , a Fed rate hike. That's all that matters, folks. Oil is heading lower. What's more, the technicals strongly support the move. This week we saw a two day counter-trend rally move oil up 6%. With today's price action, we have a firm rejection of the counter-trend rally, which means the downtrend is still intact and the move lower can proceed. Today, we also saw the futures break below the lows set prior to the counter-trend rally, a level that also corresponded with the 76.4% fib retracement of March's rally to 2015 highs. 100% is the next fib retracement level at 42.00, which falls within range of a fib extension zone b/w 41.55 and 43.25. The pace of the current downtrend from late June predicts 42.00 within 13 days. Keeping in mind the absolute and relative low levels of oil volatility (versus other asset classes) could cause that move to come much faster. A long vol, bearish options strategy might be a useful way to play the move. Next week I plan to take some profits in my 45 puts and roll into shorting the futures directly. Also, keep the Mexican Peso on your watch list. My macro thoughts are OIL --> CAD --> MXN.
FX:USOILShort
by simonsays452
1