Sweet little bear - short the weakestBuy the strongest, sell the weakest.
Buy the Nasdaq (strong fundamentals) , Sell the weakest (Italy has no tourism, Industrial production came out negative today and a gvment crisis seems on it's way as coalition partners are withdrawing support from a fragile government).
I'm going short already and the chart almost agrees (almost at major resistance which means I am shorting it today but i am prepared to short again IF it manages to rise to the resistance).
Hope it all makes sense. I am not a psychic to know what today and tomorrow brings, so hedging is important: Buy the strongest, sell the weakest.
Ti amo Italia, pazienza amici.
MIB
FTSE MIB - Italy - cycle wave 3 down under wayThe Italian stock index recently concluded cycle wave 2 counter trend up and it is developing primary wave 1 down. The current upward movement is a counter trend that could be labeled intermediate wave 4 or primary wave 2. The log-term forecast is the same in either cases, after this counter trend up the index should go for a long-term downward path. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
FTSE MIB Triangle Breakout!INDEX:FTSEMIB is clearly breaking out a perfect triangle pattern, and this is a confirmation that a long position would be the best opportunity for a long term investment for this year... I think the best would be:
Open a long position
Keeping it up for one year max
Closing the position before (10 days before min) the falling wave that comes after the triangle pattern.
Happy trading to all!
What do you think it'll happen after the triangle breakout? Would you do a totally long position or maybe use some oscillations to maximize profit? What about the leverage? I think that a 2x leverage would be the best and the safest option for this position.
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points.
European Macros
The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019.
Fed Effects
The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points.European Macros The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FTSE MIB Elliott Wave Analysis UpdateCompared to the last update, the first scenario seems to have been confirmed, which represented Minor X wave as an expanding triangle. The first Intermediate 4 wave target we had set was reached (0.5 Intermediate 3 retracement and Minor W 0.786 extension). Minor Y wave is still in construction and seems to be forming like a zig zag. Wave B Minute seems to have ended up as a double correction (w-x-y / descending triangle - zig zag). The next target is 20600 (Minor W extension and 0.382 Minute A extension). It follows the target 20800 (0.618 retracement of Intermediate 3 and 0.618 extension of Minute A.) The alternative scenario is that Minute B wave has not yet concluded (hypothesis valid if there is a further extension with respect to the 3 Minuette wave currently in formation and if consequently the index goes below 20290, overlap of Minuette 4).
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term
In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend.
Short and mid term
From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
FTSE MIB Elliott Wave Analysis UpdateThe FTSEMIB remains in its phase of correction of the long-term bearish trend. In particular, Wave 4 Intermediate would seem to be forming as a double three (double correction) WXY of Minor degree. The latter after finishing the W as flat expanded, has given way to the X, which at the moment seems to have completed as a double three (WXY) Minute grade. The latter was formed as a double zig zag, and the sub-waves of X Minute are a double correction of Minuette degree (expanded triangle / zig zag). The current scenarios in the short term are:
-as just described Wave X Minor ended and Wave Y Minor started, in particular we would be in its first sub-wave;
- Wave X Minor did not end as a double three, but is forming a triangle (ABCDE) or a triple correction (WXYXZ).
One possible target of Y Minor is the Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3 Intermediate as illustrated in the daily chart on the left.
FTSE MIB: Mid term short The trend of the Italian index on both monthly and weekly rates is strongly bearish: starting in May 2018, this series of sales does not seem to be finished yet from a technical and fundamental point of view. At the moment the price, in line with all the main world markets, seems to be recovering after having rebounded on the level of 18000 points and should retest the resistance placed in the area 19300 points with a possible but unlikely extension up to 19500.
From this area there should be a series of short orders that will return the FTSE MIB to 18500/18000 points in a few sessions, except for changes in the political and economic scenario or the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. In any case, we will wait for the 19300 points before placing a short order.
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MIB @ daily @ 2nd nearst index (of 57) to it`s alltime low priceThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (57 Share Indices)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
$MIB40 ($FTMIB) vs $DAX ($GER30) into Greek 2015 referendumThe overlay shows very similar price action in the three months running into the referendum. The only difference is that the MIB appears to have passed it's low point and is on the way back.
Remember that a few weeks after the Greek referendum there was the huge crash of 24 Aug 2015.
$MIB Sees Limited Upside To 25013 Before Geo Completion | #euroFriends,
A confluence of technical hurdles is likely limiting any immediate upside potential in the Italian MIB Index, based on the following set of observations:
1 - ELLIOTT WAVE + GEO: In the most recent past (12-19 OCT 20009), price rallied to complete Elliott Wave's 4th wave, completing its corrective swing at 24558.00. This became a spring board from which bears plunged to 12296.00 on week of 23 JULY 2012 - This nadir defined the completion of a full bearish Elliott Wave impulsive swing at its 5th wave, as well as plotted the Geo's Point-2. As price rallied correctively from that level, it crunched the most recent price action into a narrow range from which to spring into that prior 24558.00 support-turned-resistance level.
2 - RECIPROCAL AB = CD SYMMETRY: As price unfolds into a correction, internal analysis of recent price action at this weekly scale reveals that a geometric projection could carry price to or slightly above the vicinity of the historical structural 24558.00 level. This geometry does not occur over the entire length of the recent corrective upswing, but structural analysis of lows vs. highs allow for a fair projection via an internal ab = cd pattern.
3 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: As a stand-alone method, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has defined a high-probability resistance level defined as:
- TG-Hi = 25013.54 - 12 AUG 2015
This represents a qualitative target which is most able to impose a reversal event. In the context of above technical events, this adds credence to the probability of resistance and retracement as mentioned, with the 1-5' Line acting as an additional back-stop to a probable rallying into these targets.
OVERALL:
Technical analysis combined with predictive/forecasting model favor a limited upside potential to a narrow 24558.00/25013.54 range. A background Geo adds further weight through its geometry, raising the expectation of a retracement to a price level (18031.76 to 17555.77), corresponding to Point-4, as set by the Geo's Off-Set Rule.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Index of Italian Market (MIB) created a downtrend before BREXITMIB shows signs of a downtrend (again). Around 17300 we expect a rezistance with higher volatility due to BREXIT.
INDEX:MIB [/symbol
MIB is mainly driven by low-quality titles from the bank sector.
We expect reaction to the downside with quite interesting RRR of almost 3.
More you can find and learn free on UncleTrader.com .