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Michaelburry

SPX us500 Is The US market crash coming ?Is The US market crash coming ? We have 3 types of “crashes” Correction <15% downward movement in a major indicy Bear Market <20% downward movement in a major indicy Black Swan event, something very unexpected that tanks the market, think 1987, 1929, challenger disaster, 911 and so on. The fourth type is the 1919, 1929, 1999 and 2008 scenario that people generally refer to as a “crash” 2022 a new one ? Sincerely L.E.D In Spain On 2/05/2022
TVC:SPXShort
by wallstreetstocks
Bitcoin just broke the neckline on H&S patternIt wasn't that long ago that Dr. Burry tweeted about bitcoin head and shoulder pattern from the first bitcoin peak. Another bearish head & shoulder pattern has just broken the neckline on the right shoulder. This pattern on the daily fits closely with a larger Wyckoff / Fibonacci pattern I have been charting last year. Bearish sentiment and rotation to risk-off assets would also confirm this bearish trend. I would expect long whales to begin to capitulate now. Margin calls into January and a bounce in Feb/March. Just my observations, not financial advice. I'm wrong more often than I'm right.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SPYvsGME
TSLA heavily shorted by Michael Burry!SCION ASSET MANAGEMENT, the hedge fund owned by Michael Burry - the man who bet against the housing market in 2008, if you are too young, you know him from "The Big Short", is now heavily betting against TSLA! He owns puts on Tesla for 35% of his portfolio, with a market value of $731,017,000! Besides the strong competition that TSLA has now in the EV sector, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board would open an investigation into a fatal crash earlier this month involving a Tesla vehicle in Florida that led to the deaths of two people. My first price target is 690, but it can drop even further, to 601usd.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TopgOptions
3
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ... In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for... AMEX:GLD AMEX:USO AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TLT
NASDAQ:TLT
by norok
2
Tesla; A short historical chart analysis DISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company's stock history and trend analysis with a subset of buyer and seller behaviour. Behaviour Analysis If anyone has seen any of the analyses' coming out of ARK on Bitcoin buyers and sellers, this is a little like that but with very specific buyers and sellers being analyzed. This is a small subset of the history of the stock, and only major groups will be organized, but the overall trend analysis is in support of a growth channel, as provided on the chart, but a follow up question/general wonder if that channel will hold with recent changes. For those not following, Elon Musk has recently taken Bitcoin off the table (temporarily) for Tesla, citing environmental concerns. Without me getting into this, ARK is rather unhappy, with several of Cathie Wood's underlings going on angry man-baby rants on twitter (and getting shut down on them all). Mocking rich people is fun, and should be a common public sport. While the arrows I have pointing to ARK doubling down on the Tesla bet is not perfectly exact, the general time frame stands. This serves as an important reminder of what these major groups are looking for in a chart and trend analysis, but also highlights their general belief that this growth channel is correct. My guess is this is also how they see Tesla going to 3k within 5 years with the appropriate positive catalysts correlating to developmental goals and timelines of Tesla's development cycle. This is also a great reminder of how to scale and diversify investments. ARK has a wealth of Tesla shares normally tied up in their ETF, but we see they took in-flows to buy more Tesla at the bottom of the channel (likely keeping Tesla inside this channel) and selling at the high of the channel. While they took temporary massive increases in their Tesla investment, their was a base level unmodified through the event. What is even more interesting, is Michael Burry's major short movement against Tesla. Burry and Scion probably recognized the bubble outside of the growth channel, and jumped on it immediately. My guess is that they are beginning to cover, as Tesla is far outside of their previous growth channel, but there is the possibility Burry is playing a game of wait-and-see. With the recent wedge between Musk and Wood over Tesla, it will be interesting to see if ARK looks to buy in to Tesla again for the impulse series, or if they are going to take a more backseat approach and look for other groups to moderate price discovery for Tesla. Still one of the most heavily shorted stocks, Tesla represents a unique battlefront between Bears and Bulls, where neither is right and both are fighting on shifting sands. Tesla has enough foundation and momentum to move forward as a juggernaut of capitalism, but when controlled by a mad kind, the battle becomes psychological. With an average 10 day volume of 33 Million shares, price changes can be fast and volatile. This analysis is not meant to be a price prediction or financial advice, because the market only cares so much about trend analysis. While these big players create a self-fulfilling prophecy of growth channels, trend analysis and wave series congruence, their attention and money can be swift to change directions. My hypothesis is that there is an institutional turnover right now, where institutions are deciding their big bets for the next year, and whether or not Tesla has a part in it. Tesla has a bright future ahead, but Elon Musk pushes harder and harder on investor confidence. RSI analysis The RSI serves as a good indicator for overall buying vs selling, the higher the RSI the more buyers and buying, lower the RSI vice versa. We see that the January peak correlates to high RSI, stepping into overbought territory. Furthermore, we see the decrease in RSI with decrease in price. While there would be a general favourable trend pointing to a time to buy right now, it is important to look at historical data and see that Tesla has a habit of staying in overbought territory for RSI. It would be easy to look at that and say, investors are overall bullish and Tesla is bound to bounce back hard from their oversell struggle, but equilibrium must be met. As this wave of overly bullish investors re-analyze the field, looking at Tesla's growth and compared to other mainstream available bets, it will be interesting to see the how Tesla's price plays out. Furthermore, the MACD supports the possibility of an extended down period, bringing Tesla back down to reality, or back down to a previous resistance level and sending it right back up as shorts look to cover. High Volume Periods Suggesting Tesla isn't a normally high volume stock would be wrong, but compared to these periods with >200M volume, perhaps we are due for a big week soon. It looks like we are well overdue according to historical trends, but Tesla has been trying to find a catalyst on either side to make that happen. The recent crash took a bite out of valuations, and NSTB coming out confirming Autopilot was not on did not give them that bump back up. Things to Watch for The following is an extremely short list of events to keep an eye out for, with some explanation: Tesla-ARK communication: ARK is mad at Tesla, ARK is also in a little bit of a tight spot so them starting &*%$ would be interesting, and watching Elon hold back or bite in is going to be a big prediction for the follow-up. Personally, Elon is getting to be more and more of a PR risk, he is upsetting a lot of previous investors that used to love him, while bringing on a new wave of fanatics. As he burns bridges with those, watching the general tone towards Elon change will be important. While Tesla may be one of the most important companies for the future of Humanity at this juncture, and it's sibling-relationship with SpaceX is huge, never underestimate mob mentality. ARK buying in: ARK makes it known when and what they buy every day, keeping an eye on this is a great way to look for some undervalued investments, but ARK rarely does quick trades, so don't look to day-trade following ARK. Furthermore, I have spent a significant amount of time analyzing days when ARK buys, and it doesn't look like they ever cause a massive shift in momentum the period of their buys. This is a mix of choosing high volume days, being a low volume buy and ultimately, risk mitigation. Shorts Covering: A massive short volume, some big put aggregates and tightly held shares could mean one covering could lead to dramatic price increases followed by a chain reaction of shorts covering. Margin Calls: This is currently happening, how Tesla reacts to this will be interesting, but my guess is that anyone getting margin called has some puts on Tesla, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the near term. Tesla news: Cybertruck is coming, revamped Model 3, Y, S and X are also on the table. Look for some major advancement in the redesign that could be a good catalyst. Elon is pushing the Texan Tesla-Town and is pushing for advanced precision in fabrications. Both of these could be big. Autopilot: Elon keeps opening his mouth and Tesla keeps correcting it. Looking for a major pivot moment for either is going to be big. If autopilot is <2 years away like Elon suggests, big, if it is >5 years away, oof. Biden's Stimulus and Environmental Package: Look out for big tax credits or spending increases to EV cars that might get Tesla some more headwind. It was the carbon tax credits that kept Tesla afloat and liquid originally, any more advances or decreases would have large implications for them. Disclaimer This is purely for an educational retrospective and has literally 0 implications for future price. Furthermore, ARK and Burry are only small components of the total price action. While both have followers enough to amplify movements, there are larger economic forces than either. Hopefully there is some insight in here for everyone. If you have any questions regarding this post, Tesla price action or anything at all that might be relevant, please feel free to leave a comment. Thanks!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DoctorFaustus
2
TSLA Major Correction? Share your thoughts!Today I decided to zoom out and look at the big picture. I was looking at the monthly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA . I noticed that the current month is a green 8 on the TD sell setup, which means that next month is going to be the reversal signal. I imagine the candle of February to be red or a bearish pin bar (shooting star). Before I dive into the analysis, I want to make clear that I am long TSLA. Fundamentals have not changed. Tesla is going to be the biggest disruptor of the decade. What this analysis suggests is merely a correction. The scale of the correction might be too big. I measured it to be 38% at the smallest price range of the movement, and 49% at most. It is. no doubt. steep compared to the most recent correction of 34% in Sep 2020 which I marked in the chart above. Either way, TSLA is no stranger to these swings, so let's give it a deeper look. I previously called a target for TSLA at $1050 which lies above the border of the broadening wedge. This target has not yet been achieved, so we're still in that long position. It's actually playing out as drawn (see related idea ). From there, I see a breakout and going to new highs towards $2000 during 2021 as this image illustrates. But seriously, how is it fun sailing up to $2000 without some bumpiness? Right? From where we are right now, a rise to $2000 makes a little more than 2X in terms of gain. But take it down a notch and correct to about $550 and then jack it up all the way to $2200; and you get the headline "Tesla climbs 4X in 3 months as more wall street shorts get liquidated!". Michael Burry will have exited his short of course. Oh and what would cause such a crash is perhaps another Tesla crashing into a police patrol while on full-self driving. Now that we imagined it, let's see it on the chart. I drew two downward paths. Both are one-month long. The first starts after the $1050 target is reached. This will be the ultimate bull trap. Traders who sell at the top of the broadening wedge and would re-enter once price has broken above it are the ones that will eat the bull trap. The second path I drew starts after some consolidation along the next descending resistance line. Notice these parallel dotted descending lines. I estimated the next one using Fibonacci. So the idea of the second dotted path is that price gets squeezed between the descending trend line and the ascending top of the broadening wedge. At that point, I know that I will be in so much doubt whether price will plunge downwards from that squeeze or explore upwards. We'll just have to keep collecting clues to favor one bet over the other. The target of both paths is the bottom of the broadening wedge. In my estimation, if this correction happens, this will be the bottommost point for TSLA onwards. For the stop loss, you will have to keep watching this idea as I update it, because I can't decide a stop loss yet; except I would loosely say it's the descending trend line that price action will decide. We have to wait and see a bearish reversal signal such as a shooting star candle or a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. In conclusion, I have to make clear a few points: I would never recommend shorting TSLA. TSLA has much much more room to the upside than it has to the downside. TSLA is much much more likely to see $2000 from here than it is to see $400. So shorting is a BAD idea. This is merely a warning with the goal that you make sure you are not too leveraged, that you prepare mentally before a correction happens, that you do not panic if it does happen, and that you prepare to add to your position at the bottom. TSLA is a long term investment for the coming decade. It is not a trade. This is one of those calls that I'm only publishing for fun and learning, and to entice thought and have some of your opinions. So please leave your opinion in the comments.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TechNerdOmar
7