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How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend. And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people: 1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and 2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
Tactical Trading Opportunities in Gold in 2024Gold prices in 2023 defied expectations. In 2023, economic uncertainty was in plenty with rapidly rising inflation. There was market consensus that recession would benefit gold. Gold indeed delivered stellar performance rising 12% through 2023. It was not because of a recession though. Most major economies successfully dodged a recession. Inflation trended downwards through most of 2023 and economic growth in the US remained resilient. So, what drove up gold prices? It was geopolitical shocks and mini financial shocks from the regional banking crisis that have turbo charged gold prices. Heading into 2024, markets are betting on rate cuts. Soft landing looks increasingly likely. Inflation has abated. A soft-landing does not bode well for gold but turbulent geopolitics across multiple theatres present tactical gold trading opportunities. GEOPOLITICS REMAIN A KEY DRIVER FOR GOLD Heading into 2024, tensions in the Red Sea are elevated and could spiral into a wider regional conflict. Heightened and rising hostilities remain the strongest tailwind for gold. Gold prices continue to respond strongly to geo-political risk. On Friday 12/Jan, US strikes at Houthi rebels drove markets to the edge. Gold prices rose, breaking a losing streak from the start of the year. With multiple ongoing conflicts, gold prices retain a bullish sentiment. CME Group Gold options have a positive skew with implied volatility for call options ~25% higher than that for puts with a recent rise in skew. Source: CVOL Moreover, adding to geopolitical complexity is the political uncertainty this year as seventy countries will hold elections this year. That is more than one-third of all nations and half the global adult population. MONETARY POLICY UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO STRONG GOLD RETURNS The monetary policy outlook remains split across major economies. Major central banks have provided contrasting outlooks. In the US, inflation has cooled rapidly over the past few months which drove the Fed to provide a dovish outlook for rates in 2024. Others like the BoE and ECB have maintained hawkish tones. Gold investment demand is affected by interest rates. Monetary policy is likely to follow inflation and economic trends. Economic trends remain unpredictable. Last week, a stronger than expected CPI reading showed inflation ticking back up to 3.4% in December. Economic growth is also a concern. The US is expected to have slowed in Q4. The slowdown is forecasted to be temporary with growth expected to recover in 2024. However, history shows that rapid rate increases, like the ones seen over the last two years, most often lead to a recession, as demonstrated by seven out of the last nine rate hiking cycles. Source: World Gold Council Despite the recent CPI report, CME Group’s FedWatch signals seven rate cuts in 2024 as of January 14th. For reference, Fed’s dot plot suggested merely three cuts. The market consensus around rate cut may be too optimistic, and a higher rate regime risks economic slowdown. If the US successfully achieves a soft landing, gold prices are likely to deliver mediocre returns. In that case, the presently elevated prices along with continued investor rotation out of gold, would subdue prices further. Source: World Gold Council However, if economic conditions worsen and tilts towards a recession, gold prices are likely to outperform, as highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper . MARKET SENTIMENT HAS A BULLISH TILT The latest COT report released on January 12th showed asset managers scaling back net long positioning by 20,690 contracts or 19%. Nevertheless, they remain heavily net long suggesting an overall bullish sentiment among asset managers. Options paint a similarly bullish trend with a net increase in call OI between January 5th to 12th. Options positioning covers bullish sentiment resulting from middle east escalations last week. Source: QuikStrike Demand from central banks remains a strong driver for gold too. Despite a slowdown in mid-2023, central bank buying remains elevated from pre-pandemic levels and purchases have started to ramp up once more in H2 2023. Source: World Gold Council Gold investment is slowing because of asset rotation. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) saw large inflows in October and November but since December, it has seen net outflows with outflows accelerating in 2024. Recent investor rotation out of gold is even more apparent in the outflows from SGLD. Gold ETF outflows have gone to bond ETFs like TLT and equity ETFs like SPY. TRADE SETUP Given the escalating conflict in the middle east along with the positive market sentiment, investors can benefit from short-term moves in gold prices in a margin efficient manner using CME Group Micro Gold Futures. Micro Gold Futures have a maintenance margin of just USD 830 and provide exposure to ten troy ounces of gold. This translates into effective leverage of twenty-five times at current prices. The hypothetical trade setup below describes a position in Micro Gold Futures expiring in April 2024 (MCGJ2024). • Entry Level: USD 2,071 • Target: USD 2,112 • Stop Loss: USD 2,040 • Profit at Target: USD 410 • Loss at Stop: USD 310 • Reward to Risk Ratio: 1.32x Alternatively, given the elevated volatility for call options now combined with the downside to gold price in case of a soft landing, investors can opt to sell covered calls to generate recurring income as previously described . MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Gold Shines as Nasdaq DeclinesGold glows as risk blows. Multiple bank failures and shotgun bank marriages are bringing back scary memories of 2008. Amid gloom, demand for gold blooms. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable portfolio diversification, exhibits lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge. As described in our last paper , among the six ways of investing in gold, CME COMEX's Gold Futures ("Gold Futures") is most optimal among them. This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 delves into Gold Futures. Part 2 articulates a spread trade case study comprising of long gold and short Nasdaq yielding a reward to risk ratio >1.4x . COMPREHENDING GOLD FUTURES AND ITS PARTICIPANTS Gold Futures is the world’s most liquid gold derivatives. Fifty billion USD notional is traded daily on average. This leads to unrivalled bid-ask spreads enabling investors to gain capital efficient exposure to the price of gold. Launched in 1974 and trading over nearly 50 years, Gold Futures offer tight correlation to physical gold prices. Gold Futures trade 23 hours a day. Trading starts every Sunday 5pm Chicago Time (6am Monday in Singapore) to Friday 4pm Chicago time (5am Saturday in Singapore) providing near round-the-clock access. Gold Futures provide superior capital efficiency with a leverage of nearly 25x at current prices. Gold Futures come in two sizes. Each lot of the full contract provides exposure to 100 oz. of Gold requiring $8,000 in margins per lot. However, each lot of Micro Gold contract delivers 10 oz. of gold price exposure. Micro contracts which require only $800 per lot in margins provides affordable access to investors while helping hedgers fine-tune their risk management strategies with more precious exposure. When trading spreads, investors can further boost return through margin credits. Broadly speaking, investors, hedgers, and speculators form the active participants in the gold futures market. Hedgers use futures to manage their overall gold portfolio risk exposure. They use derivatives to lock in price for future transactions or to effectively hedge against price fluctuations. Speculators participate in Gold Futures with the intent of punting on gold price moves to generate profits. Investors use gold futures for generating return on capital over an extended period. They tend to focus on underlying fundamentals rather than short-term price movements. All three types of market participants are essential for effective financial market operation. Together they help build deep liquidity pools thereby facilitating robust price discovery. GOLD IS SET TO OUTSHINE NASDAQ The Nasdaq Index comprises of one hundred large and most actively traded U.S firms listed on the Nasdaq exchange. The index includes firms from a variety of industries except financials. These include tech, health care, retail, biotech, and industrial companies. The index is weighted by market capitalisation. During risk-off phases, investors rush to shelter in safe-havens. Gold prices rise. Also, when rates rise, companies whose values hinge on future distant cash flows suffer. As those cash flows get discounted at steeper rates diminishing its present value, share prices plunge. As risks and rates rise & remain high, Gold will outperform Nasdaq. Validating this view is the positioning of participants based on CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report dated March 13th. It shows that managed money and speculators are net long on Gold. COT report of the same date shows that leveraged funds are net short in the CME E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures. However, asset managers remain net long. The options market also vindicates the above views. Options on Gold Futures have a put/call ratio of 0.6x which signifies bullishness in gold. For every 10 bullish gold investors, there are only 6 bearish ones. However, for Nasdaq, options exhibit a put/call ratio of 2x meaning that for every 10 bullish Nasdaq investors, there are 20 bearish ones. Is a long position in Gold Futures a solid trade? Questionable, given that gold has rallied 10% since the start of banking crises. Current gold prices are overbought based on RSI. If crisis deepen, gold may continue its ascent. However, if market gains comfort from bailout assurances, gold prices will soften. Therefore, a directional long position in gold is beset with risk. However, as rates continue to rise or remain high, Nasdaq will struggle as growth firms get punished with discounted present value. Hence, this case study argues that a spread trade to long gold & short Nasdaq will deliver a compelling positive yield. Yes, growth stocks in Nasdaq have outperformed gold over the past twenty years. Yet, these stocks will struggle during times of crisis and elevated rates. The Gold-Nasdaq Ratio (“GNR”) had a golden crossover in January 2022 as equities came off its peak with rates rising. Since then, long-term (200-day) moving average has been a strong support for GNR. With GNR trading above this level, it provides investors a compelling spread trading opportunity with strong upside and limited downside. A long position in CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in June 2023 (MGCM3) provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold with a minimum margin requirement of $800 per lot. Each contract of MGCM3 represents a notional of $19,940. A short position in CME Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures expiring in June 2023 (MNQM3) provides exposure to $2 x Nasdaq-100 index with a minimum margin requirement of $1,680 per lot. Each contract of Micro Nasdaq-100 represents a notional of $25,750. Spread trade requires notional values of each leg to be identical. Therefore, a long position of five lots of MGCM3 is required to offset a short position of four contracts of MNQM3 . Margin offsets are available for this spread. The trade entry, target, stoploss, and reward to risk ratio are set out below: • Entry: 15.27% • Target: 16.90% • Stop: 14.20% • Profit at Target: $10,172 • Loss at Stop: $7,230 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.4x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – The CPI Rally Content: • Why CPI could be at the beginning of a rally? • On 14 Dec 21, Fed: “Inflation is not transitory” changes everything • Strategy to counter inflation Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. If you are into shorter-term trading, the live data feed is definitely a must for traders. In part 2 of this series, we will do a deep dive on if CPI were to decline, to at what specific level? Before we can consider inflation is under control. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. COMEX Micro Gold 0.1 = US$1 1.0 = US$10 1700 points = US$17,000 Eg. 100 points profit = US$1,000
Editors' picks
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by konhow
4
Micro Gold Futures (MGC), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1738.4 Pivot: 1721.8 Support : 1678.5 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving within a descending channel and RSI moving along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1721.8 where the pullback resistance is to 1st support at 1678.5 in line with swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1738.4 where the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: As DXY rose in strength, we have a bearish view on precious metals like Gold.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by Genesiv