Get started

Microsoft

Harvesting Alpha with Beta HedgingImagine this. Dark skies, earth tremors and thunder roars. Shelter is top priority. Size matters in a crisis. When the tsunami strikes and lightning splits the sky, investors shudder in fear; But the super seven stand tall, shielding investors from the fury. Dramatic metaphors aside, we truly live in unprecedented times. Risk lurks everywhere. List is endless. Unstable geopolitics. Sticky inflation. Recession expectations. Unprecedented deepening of yield curve inversion. Unfinished regional banking crisis. Weak manufacturing. Tightening financial conditions. Extremely divisive global politics, to just name a few. Despite severe headwinds, US equity markets are roaring. YTD, S&P is up +15% and Nasdaq is up +32%. At the start of 2023, the consensus was for US equities to be in doldrums dragged down by recession. Halfway through the year, markets are at the cusp of one of the best first half for US equity markets in twenty years. This is among the narrowest and top-heavy rally ever. Only a sliver of stocks - precisely seven of them - defines this optimism. This paper will refer to these as the Super Sevens. These are the biggest members of the S&P 500 index. Super Sevens are Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This paper argues that the Super Sevens will deliver above market returns in the short term as investors seek safe haven from a vast array of macro risks. The paper articulates a case study to demonstrate the use of beta hedging to extract alpha from holding long positions in Super Sevens and hedging them against sharp reversals using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ("CME Micro S&P 500 Futures"). THE RISE AND RISE OF SUPER SEVENS Super Sevens have an outsized impact as S&P 500 is a market weighted index. Merely five of these seven form 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation. At $2.9 trillion in market capitalisation, Apple is greater than all of UK’s top 100 listed companies put together. If that were not enough, Apple's market capitalisation alone is greater than the aggregate market capitalisation of all the firms in the Russell 2000 index. Nvidia has been soaring on hopes of AI driven productivity gains. On blow out revenue guidance, it has rallied $640 billion in market cap YTD. That increment alone is larger than the combined market cap of JP Morgan & Bank of America the two largest banks in the US. The heatmap summarises analyst targets & technical signals on pathway for prices ahead: In part 2 of this paper, Mint will cover the detailed analyst price forecasts, technical signals and summary narratives covering value drives and intrinsic risk factors. WHAT DRIVES INVESTOR CONCENTRATION INTO THE SUPER SEVENS? As reported in the Financial Times last week, two broad market trends appear to have fed into this investor concentration. First, Passive investing. When funds merely deliver the performance of an index by replicating its composition, the higher the index weights, the more these passive funds buy into these names. Second, ESG investing. Rising push towards ESG has forced investment into tech and away from carbon-heavy sectors such as energy. Collectively, this has resulted in all types of investors – active, passive, momentum, ESG- all going after the same names. Question is, what happens now? Will the broader market catch up with the Super Sevens? Or will the Super Sevens suffer a sharp pullback? That depends on the broader US economy. Will it have a hard landing, soft landing, or no landing at all? Given market expectations of (a) resilient earnings capacity, and (b) solid growth potential among Super Sevens, we expect that in the near to mid-term the Super Sevens will continue to outperform the broader market. In ordinary times, investors could have simply established long positions in Super Sevens and wait to reap their harvests. However, we live in unprecedented times. WE LIVE IN TRULY UNPRECEDENTED TIMES Risks abound but no signs of it in equity markets. Historically, geopolitical instability, tightening financial conditions, and a deeply inverted curve could have led to crushing returns in the US equity markets. Not this time though. Peak concentration As mentioned earlier, bullishness in equity markets can be vastly attributed to just the Super Sevens. These seven have delivered crushing returns rising between 40% and 192% YTD. The S&P 500 index is market cap weighted. Super Sevens represent the largest companies in the index by market cap and their stellar performance has an outsized impact on the index. Is this a bull run or a bear market clouded by over optimism among Super Sevens? Deeply inverted yield curve In simple words, it costs far more to borrow for the near term (2 year) relative to the borrowing for long term (10-year). The US Treasury yield curves have been inverted for more than a year now. The difference between the 2-Year and 10-Year treasuries is at its widest level since the early 1980s. Inversion in yield curve has historically been a credible signal of recession ahead. When bonds with near term duration yield higher rates than those with longer-dated expiries, this precedes trouble in the economy. Recession. What recession? This period might go into the record books for the most long-awaited recession that is yet to come. For the last 12 months, experts have been calling for recession to show up in 3 months. While manufacturing sector seems feeble, labour market remains solid. Corporate balance sheets are robust. Consumer finances and consumer confidence are in good health. The VIX remains sanguine while the only fear indicator that appears unsettled is the MOVE index which indicates volatility in the bond markets. After having spiked earlier in the year, the MOVE is starting to soften as well. BETA HEDGING FOR PURE ALPHA In times of turbulence, risk management is not an afterthought but a necessity. Hedge delivers the edge. When there are ample arguments to be made for bullish and bearish markets, taking a directional position can be precarious. This paper posits Super Sevens holdings be hedged with CME Micro S&P 500 Futures. Hedging single stocks is nuanced. The stocks and the index do not always move in tandem. A given stock may be more volatile or less volatile relative to the benchmark. Beta is the sensitivity of the stock price relative to a benchmark. Beta is computed from daily returns over a defined historical period. Stocks with high Beta move a lot more than the underlying index. Stocks that move narrowly relative to its underlying benchmark exhibits low Beta. Beta hedging involves adjusting the notional value of a stock price based on its beta. Using beta-adjusted notional, hedging then involves taking an offsetting position in an index derivative contract to match the notional value. TradingView publishes beta values computed based on daily returns over the last 12 months. The following table illustrates the beta-adjusted notional for the Super Sevens based on the last traded prices as of close of market on June 16th. Beta hedging using CME Micro S&P 500 Futures enables investors to precisely scale their portfolio exposures to the index. A small contract size enables investors to manage risks with finer granularity. CME allows conversion of micro futures into a classic E-mini futures position, and vice versa. Round the clock liquidity combined with tight spreads and sizeable open interest across the two front contract months, investors can enter and exit the market at ease. BETA-HEDGED TRADE SET UP In unprecedented times like today, markets may continue to rally or come crashing. To harness pure alpha, this paper posits a spread with long positions in Super Sevens hedged by a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in September 2023. This trade set-up gains when (a) Super Sevens rise faster than the S&P 500, or (b) Super Sevens suffers drop in value but falls lesser relative to S&P 500, or (c) Super Sevens gain while S&P 500 falls. This trade setup loses when (a) Super Seven falls faster than S&P 500, or (b) S&P 500 rises faster than Super Seven, or (c) S&P 500 rises while Super Sevens pullback Each CME Micro S&P 500 Futures has a multiplier of USD 5. The September contract settled on June 16th at 4453.75 implying a notional value of USD 22,269 (4453.75 * USD 5). Effective beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stock. Given the beta-adjusted notional value of USD 2,561 for single shares in Super Sevens and the notional value for each lot of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures at USD 22,269, the spread trade requires: a. A long position in 26 shares each across all the Super Sevens translating to a beta-adjusted notional of USD 66,576. b. Hedged by a short position with 3 lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures which provides a notional exposure of USD 66,807. The following table illustrates the hypothetical P&L of this spread trade under various scenarios: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
3
Harnessing the AI Revolution: A Powerful Surge with NVIDIA, GoogThe future is now, and it's coded in the language of Artificial Intelligence. As investors, we have a unique opportunity to be part of this game-changing journey. My personal story began with NVIDIA, an industry leader in AI and graphics processing. Acquiring NVIDIA shares two months ago was akin to boarding a spacecraft destined for new frontiers. The ride has been exceptional, with returns exceeding my expectations. But, the vast landscape of AI is not limited to one planet. There's a whole universe to explore, and I decided to broaden my horizons. Hence, I ventured further, incorporating three other stellar entities into my portfolio - Google, Microsoft, and IBM. These industry titans are carving their paths, harnessing AI to innovate, and influencing global trends. My portfolio is not just an investment; it's a belief in a future shaped by AI, a testament to a revolution unfolding right before our eyes. Join me in this journey, as I share my insights, strategies, and perspectives on navigating these high-tech tides. Together, we can capitalize on the industry that is relentlessly and rapidly shaping our tomorrow. Remember, the revolution might be digitized, but the rewards are very real.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Titans_Trading
4 takeaways from EmTech Digital's AI conferenceMIT Technology Review recently put on its EmTech Digital conference. It will come as no surprise that this year’s focus was generative artificial intelligence (AI). There is a sense that generative AI, in its many different forms, is important and that it will have an economic impact, but it’s not yet clear exactly how this will manifest itself in the coming years. Below we discuss the four key takeaways from the conference. 1. Changing how we interact with Microsoft Office Software It is well known that Microsoft has made significant investments in OpenAI and that there is a close relationship between the two firms—GPT-4 is accessible on certain Microsoft Azure service platforms, as an example. Microsoft had only just mentioned the import and expected impact of AI to its future business results as it reported on the period ended 31 March 2023, so we were curious what more they could add in a short presentation. However, Microsoft mentioned one of the most exciting things across the entire conference. We are all searching for ‘use cases’ and we are also all trying to figure out what it will look like to communicate with Office 365 software in ‘natural language’. Microsoft’s representative noted that he had seen an example case where there was a Word document, and that the technology was able to seamlessly interface with PowerPoint and to go from having a Word document to having a version expressed in slides. In WisdomTree’s research team, taking a source file in text form and converting it to a potential presentation is an important function; some situations require slides, some situations require emails, some situations require Word documents. It takes a really long time to laboriously change a Word document into relevant, impactful slides. If there was a way for the file in Word to communicate with PowerPoint to create at least a rough draft with slides, over the course of the year within WisdomTree’s research team alone this would save a rather large amount of team hours. Since it probably could also work in reverse (PowerPoint back to Word), maybe we are not far away from drafts of blog posts being created off of PowerPoint slides. 2. Did you realise that AI cannot hold a patent? Part of what is sparking the current generative AI revolution has to do with creation. People are excited for the capability to create images, molecules, text, to name just a few things. However, the world is seeking to get a better handle on the legal ramifications. One such example regards Stability AI’s image generation capability. Getty Images, a major holder of rights to photographic content, has alleged that the use of their images in this way runs afoul of its licensing provisions, and that their images are quite valuable for training purposes due to diversity of subject matter and detailed metadata1. The value of access to training data, therefore, is coming to light. Another thing we did not realise was that, if AI is involved in the creation of something novel, AI cannot hold a patent, which could have interesting intellectual property implications in the US. An article in the National Law Review, published on 2 May 2023, affirmed that “Federal Circuit Holds That AI Cannot Be an “Inventor” Under the Patent Act - Only Humans Can Get Patents2.” 3. The magic of defect detection One of the most exciting presentations, in our opinion, regarded ‘defect detection’ from the firm Landing AI. In recent years, we have spent a lot of time thinking about electric vehicles, and WisdomTree as a global business has many funds that focus on different metals, different types of companies—basically all sorts of ways that investors can align an investment with trends they are seeing. The world needs more batteries, that much is clear, but batteries need to be assembled in a way that limits defects. When people mention ‘computer vision’ by itself, without an application, it doesn’t always sound exciting or capture the imagination. Seeing the presentation immediately helped us to picture all of the new factories being built to assemble more battery cells, taking advantage of certain funding provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. Picturing a computer vision system, deployed at scale, able to catch defective battery cells in close to real-time, could be immensely valuable. All manufacturing companies could benefit from better defect detection. It was interesting to hear in the presentation how there is so much money in things like ‘Targeted Advertising’ and ‘Internet Search’ that this is where a lot of AI applications are developed, but if a company can serve the totality of need across different manufacturing concerns, it could be a big market as well and immensely valuable if these systems can really catch defective products before they are shipped. It was also particularly powerful to watch a demonstration of how a company might have a series of pictures in a database and use AI to ‘learn’ to recognise a particular attribute, like a crack. This could deploy better defect detection at scale as well as putting model training in the hands of people without PhD’s in data science, both very impactful things. 4. The maths of drug development is prohibitive A few presentations during the event concerned drug discovery, and for good reason. It was mentioned that the development of a given molecule into a drug takes roughly $2 billion, 10 years and has a 96% failure rate along the way. While we need drug therapies, the statistical specification of that journey does not sound compelling, and it makes those drugs that get through extremely expensive. Whether it is Nvidia or Exscientia presenting, so far the critical element is not to say that ‘AI is creating drugs’ but rather ‘AI is improving our chances’. Chemistry and physics are much like languages and there are certain rules that govern how they work. Generative AI does not always craft finished prose, but it is able to put many options to the page quite quickly. Generative AI for drug development is most likely to help researchers make better, higher probability attempts at further study. One thing that was very notable to hear was that we might be at a transition point in how research is done. Human researchers seeking the cure or a new therapy for a particular disease converge quite closely around a lot of similar ideas. For approaches run by humans, this makes sense. But for approaches with machine learning closer to the forefront, there may not be enough diversity across the data from the attempts such that the machine learning algorithm can find notable relationships across the data that human researchers would have been less likely to see. If machine learning algorithms are closer to the forefront, it can change the way certain types of research, like drug discovery, are done such that the systems are getting the appropriate breadth of data from which to draw out patterns and relationships. Conclusion: 2023 as a turning point History is replete with turning points. eCommerce, internet search, smart phones, the app economy, social media—all of these things had a ‘beginning’ where success was far from assured and we could not have predicted exactly where the technologies would go. Even if AI has been developing for many years, maybe 2023 will be seen as somewhat of a beginning, in that it marked the point after which non-technical people were using AI just like it was any other application. Sources 1 Source: Brittain, Blake. “Getty Images lawsuit says Stability AI misused photos to train AI.” Reuters. February 6, 2023. 2 Source: “Federal Circuit Holds that AI Cannot Be an ‘Inventor’ Under the Patent Act—Only Humans Can Get Patents.” The National Law Review. May 6, 2023. Volume XIII, Number 126.
SPARKS:AIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Microsoft - Fundamental Analysis: Everything you need to know.Microsoft's Stock Rises on the Back of AI Expansion, Gaming Dominance, and Positive Analyst Outlook Over the past few months, Microsoft's stock has experienced a remarkable surge of almost 30%, driven by the company's ambitious venture into the field of artificial intelligence (AI). This cutting-edge technology has the potential to revolutionize numerous industries in the years ahead, and Wall Street has taken notice, leading to a bullish outlook on Microsoft's stock. While Microsoft already boasts established brands like Office, Windows, Azure, and Xbox, the growing influence of AI has further enhanced its potential, making it an opportune time to explore the opportunities presented by this tech giant. Here are three crucial factors that knowledgeable investors should consider. AI Potential: In 2019, Microsoft made a strategic investment of $1 billion in OpenAI, a move that has proven to be a significant win for the company. OpenAI's advanced chatbot, ChatGPT, has triggered an AI race among tech giants and prompted Microsoft to invest an additional $10 billion in the company. This partnership has positioned Microsoft as a frontrunner in the market, allowing the integration of OpenAI's technology into its own services such as Office, Azure, and Bing. As a result, Microsoft has solidified its position as the leading provider of AI services for both consumers and businesses. Furthermore, Microsoft's cloud computing platform, Azure, has the potential to become a market leader with the help of AI. Richard Bernstein, an investment manager, predicts that Microsoft's cloud revenue could more than double as the company expands its AI offerings. As of the first quarter of 2023, Azure currently holds the second-largest market share in the cloud industry at 23%, with Amazon Web Services leading at 32%. However, Microsoft's leadership in artificial intelligence gives it the potential to surpass its competitors in the coming years. Growing Dominance in Gaming: In addition to making strides in AI and cloud computing, Microsoft has made significant progress in the gaming industry. The Xbox brand has propelled the company to become the fourth-largest games company globally, trailing only Tencent, Sony, and Apple. However, Microsoft is actively taking steps to increase its market share in this sector. One of Microsoft's notable achievements in gaming is the introduction of the Xbox Game Pass, a game subscription service that has transformed how millions of gamers consume games since its launch in 2017. By offering users access to an extensive collection of games for a low monthly fee, Game Pass eliminates the need to purchase games individually. Moreover, Microsoft adds its own game titles to the platform on their launch day, which is a significant selling point. With the acquisition of more game studios, Game Pass has become increasingly attractive to gamers, offering hit titles and value-added features that make the Xbox console more appealing than competitors like Sony's PlayStation 5. Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, Microsoft's games business has continued to grow, thanks to the success of Xbox Game Pass. In the third quarter of 2023 (ending March 2023), revenue from the service increased by 3% year-on-year, and the number of Game Pass members grew by an impressive 150% from 2020 to 2022. Analysts' Optimism: Investors have been drawn to Microsoft this year due to the company's expansion into AI, resulting in the stock price rising nearly 30% since the beginning of 2023. Microsoft's strong brands, such as Office, Windows, Azure, and Xbox, have already made it an appealing investment. However, the company's foray into AI has further boosted its outlook. Savvy investors recognize that Microsoft possesses significant potential in AI and is leveraging its partnership with OpenAI to integrate the startup's technology across various services, including Office, Azure, and Bing. Additionally, Microsoft has made notable progress in gaming, with the rapid growth of its subscription service, Xbox Game Pass, which adds value to the Xbox console. Analysts have expressed optimism about Microsoft's prospects, giving the company a buy/strong buy rating. They recognize the significant potential of Microsoft's expanding role in AI, the cloud market, and gaming. The average 12-month price target reflects a projected 7% growth in the stock. With its strong foothold in established industries and its investments in emerging technologies, Microsoft is seen as a long-term buy with substantial growth potential. In summary, Microsoft's stock has experienced a substantial rise driven by its expanding ventures into AI, its dominance in the gaming industry through Xbox Game Pass, and the positive outlook from analysts. The company's strategic partnership with OpenAI and its integration of AI technology into various services position it as a leading provider in the AI market. Furthermore, Microsoft's cloud computing platform, Azure, has the potential to become a market leader. As Microsoft continues to innovate and expand its offerings, investors recognize the long-term growth opportunities it presents.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FOREXN1
18
MSFT Swing Short updateWe have hit our entry perfectly and have started to move down. Since we have already moved 2% Its good enough for moving stop loss slightly lower, but I would keep it above the recent high atleast couple of point higher. Once we breach the while horizontal line and stay under it for a day or two I will move the Stop loss to breakeven after taking small tp and let the rest ride. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by zakoraio
2
MSFT Swing ShortWe have several bear divs on RSI. The whole move up from 274 to current high will be reversed as it happened on Decelerating volume. We have also tapped the PRZ of butterfly after filling the Gap at 312. The PRZ of the butterfly has a large zone of reversal, that's why SL is slightly large for this move. Based on your risk appetite, you can either wait for a better entry or size your positions as per the SL , but we are at proper place to look for selling/Shorting opportunities here. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by zakoraio
Apple AAPL - Brace Yourselves for $200. Seriously.Apple is something of a reverse canary in the coalmine when it comes to the Nasdaq, specifically because it's its highest weighted company at almost 14%. All these weeks everyone has been bearish, but yet, Apple is not in anything resembling a bear market. Instead, everything about Apple from the monthly chart to the daily chart indicates that the January all time high of $182.93 is not very likely at all to be the all time high. And this is under the circumstance wherein Apple extensively relies on what is effectively slave labor supplied by the notorious Chinese Communist Party, a problem really exacerbated by the regime employing that Zero-COVID stuff. This is important because the situation with Apple's Foxconn factories and other Chinese factories and the new restrictions on chip makers means there is fundamental problems with this company going forward. There's fundamental problems and yet it's set up to rally to a new all time high. Apple is more or less in "The Big Short." Look up "China Quarantine Camps" or "COVID QR Code" on social media. The Chinese are literally being placed by the millions into huge concentration camps and every aspect of their daily life, from their ability to use public transit, their ability to go to work, their ability to purchase goods, their ability to use money, is entirely under the CCP's social credit system, lynch pinned around the colour of their QR code health pass. And to think this is a system that the Western globalist establishment would like to install for all of us all over the world via central bank digital currencies... all I can say to readers is I hope you are intelligent enough to reject the Communist Party's things and its Marxist-Leninist "Theory of Evolution" and atheism stuff. If you want those things, you'll have to go with those things and experience what those things truly entail. Personally, I'm calling a bear market rally, with Nasdaq going to 14,000. I suppose it'll be rather humiliating for me if this turns out to be incorrect and we keep dumping. However, fortune favours the bold, and at the same time, this is how bear markets work and there's a logic to the way they operate. Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming I also believe that stocks like Amazon and Meta are due for a fat rally AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull Before you discount my supposition as hogwash, consider that McDonald's and Lockheed Martin just made all time highs just last month. And this is supposed to be a bear market where everything is going down. So what's the rationale for saying Apple is going to set a new all time high? Let's examine the monthly: 1. Apple set the low of the year in June, like everything else, but when it came time for September and October's scary index dumps, Apple remained very strong. October was actually a winning month overall. 2. Although this appears to have sharply reversed in November, it's worth noting we're a total of 4 trading days into the month. The November high as printed is not likely to remain the high. 3. In terms of range equilibrium for this market cycle, which I measure from anything's Coronavirus Disease 2019 pseudo-pandemic hysteria low to its all time high, Apple has not wanted to trade back to equilibrium. This all on its own tells me that the MMs are still heavy on the sell. Looking at a weekly chart: Inside the 2022 trading range we can see that Apple is currently trading at a deep discount. The magnification of the fractal shows us that not only is the prior statement true, but that the area below the October of 2021 pivot that led to the ATH has been worked extensively for the last several months. On the daily, we can see with more clarity that the post-earnings pump was actually a major trade away from this genuine demand zone and back towards range equilibrium. It has since retraced, which is bullish. If you understand how sell models work, you'll understand why this is "bullish" and not "bearish," and you'll understand why Apple continues to trade like it does and why it doesn't want to make a new low despite how excited everyone always is about the prospect of it crashing so they can buy cheap. (Hint: When Apple is under $115, don't touch it. It's going to wind up like Facebook.) But if you understand how sell models work, you'll also know why a new all time high on Apple is bearish, and not bullish. What I would like to say to everyone is that bear markets rally and rally hard. They do this for a reason and the fundamental reason is that they're not bullish. It sounds contradictory, right? "Why would something rally so hard if it's not bullish? How can that be?" You are confused because when you see price go up, you think buying and when you see price go down, you think selling. Yet, if the banks and the funds traded like that, they would blow their account like you do and we would have ourselves a Lehman Brothers moment every 3 to 6 months and society would collapse. When you see huge rallies like what's ahead you need to govern yourself strictly, and this means: 1. Don't get delusional and think you're in a new paradigm of everything going uppy. No, SPX is not going to 6,000 before Jan. 1 like David J. Hunter has been calling. 2. Check your greed before your greed checks your hide 3. Don't short or buy puts too early. Instead, buy them too late. A bullish Apple is as scary as a bullish Bitcoin. 4. The more complaining you see on social media and your signal groups about the Federal Reserve and "this ponzi," the higher things are going to go. The top is in when the charlatans and grifters start talking about getting long. 5. Buy the dip, but keep your risk low. 6. Make sure you take profits because this is no time to buy and hold. Because what lies ahead after you see this go on for a bit and VIX hit numbers like 17 and 18, is this, which I called in August, VIX - 9x8 = 72 The limit down that lies ahead is going to be vicious. Afterwards, North Americans will finally know what a real bear market feels like. It's not fun.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by LordWrymouth
6
$SONY: Monthly Hidden Bullish Divergence and Channel Breakout NYSE:SONY on the Monthly Timeframe is breaking out of a Descending Channel while confirming Hidden Bullish Divergence and Bullishly Crossing over on the MACD and the RSI enters the Bullish Control Zone; the next obvious target would be between 150 and 177 Dollars as that would be the completion of an AB=CD Harmonic Pattern. One last thing to note on the side is that the NASDAQ:MSFT acquisition of NASDAQ:ATVI has recently hit a brick wall with regulators and this is likely to spur some optimism in the NYSE:SONY camp who has opposed this acquisition in fears that Microsoft would eventually make games like Call of Duty, Xbox Exclusive.
NYSE:SONYLong
by RizeSenpai
MICROSOFT Cup and Handle targeting $320.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 04 Bottom. Supported by an Inner Higher Lows trend-line, we can even see a Rising Wedge forming. Now however, it will face the most important Resistance of this uptrend, the 294.50 of the August 15 High (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci). If rejected, we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern materializing, which can pull the price back down to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We remain bullish on MSFT but based on our long-term strategy for stocks, we will welcome such pull-back and buy it. Our next target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci at $320. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradingShot
2
Is it Worth Buying MSFT Today ?Microsoft Corporation, the American multinational technology company, has been one of the most prominent companies in the tech industry. Founded in 1975, the company’s market capitalization was $2.15 trillion, as of April 18, 2023. The company has had a strong revenue growth, reaching $198.27 billion in 2022, with projections of $262.57 billion in 2025. This growth has been fueled by several products, including Windows, Office Suite, Xbox, and LinkedIn, among others. The company’s financial statements show strong performance, particularly in revenue, with an impressive compound annual growth rate of 13.3% between 2017 and 2022. The company has also maintained a good profitability level, with an average EBIT margin of 41.4% between 2017 and 2022. However, the company’s net income margin has been fluctuating between 2017 and 2022, reaching its highest at 36.5% in 2021 and its lowest at 31.0% in 2018. The company's valuation ratios have been at reasonable levels over the years. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has ranged from 26.6x in 2022 to 35.3x in 2020. The P/E ratio is expected to reach 23.0x in 2025. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio has ranged from 11.5x in 2022 to 14.3x in 2021, and it is expected to reach 6.54x in 2025. Microsoft Corporation's enterprise value (EV) to revenue ratio has also remained reasonable, ranging from 9.4x in 2022 to 11.7x in 2021, while its EV to EBITDA ratio ranged from 19.1x in 2022 to 24.1x in 2021. The company's enterprise value over free cash flow (EV/FCF) ratio was at 28.6x in 2022, and it is expected to reach 22.6x in 2025. The company has a strong balance sheet, with net cash position ranging from $54.98 billion in 2022 to $135.17 billion in 2025. The company's free cash flow (FCF) margin has been reasonable, ranging from 32.9% in 2022 to 34.0% in 2025. Furthermore, Microsoft has maintained high return on equity (ROE) ratios of over 30% since 2018. In light of the above financial performance, it is not surprising that analysts have a positive outlook for the company's future. They estimate that the company's net income will increase from $92.49 billion in 2025 to around $ billion in 2027, while the earnings per share (EPS) will reach $14.4 in 2027, according to the consensus of Wall Street. Moreover, the company's management has a history of generating high shareholder returns, primarily through share buybacks and dividends. The company’s dividend yield has ranged from 0.83% in 2021 to 1.13% in 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in the future. Overall, Microsoft is a highly profitable and financially stable company, with strong growth potential in its cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments. While its current P/E ratio of 26.6x may seem relatively high compared to historical averages, it is still within reasonable range for a tech company with its growth prospects. The company's strong net cash position and negative leverage ratio further demonstrate its financial stability. In conclusion, I believe that Microsoft is a strong investment opportunity for long-term investors. While short-term volatility and market fluctuations are always a possibility, the company's financial strength and growth potential make it an attractive option. With its continued investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, Microsoft is well-positioned for success in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Julien_Eche