Reversal?Potential reversal identified based on August price action.
We are at a tipping point for tech.
Weekly technicals are oversold.
MACD monthly remains negative.
Jobs report and further Fed hikes may amplify this technical analysis may tip the scales and send tech plummeting.
Good luck,
Opinion - not financial advice
Microsoft
MSFT Microsoft to 290 by JulyPrice action looks like this could be a cup and handle breaking out through the $165 area. Lots of important economic signals coming in the next 2 week which, if good, could be a boon for markets and especially blue chip technology. MSFT is one of the strongest looking stocks of them right now in my opinion. Out on two closes under $140 looking to see this test $290 area when I would set a hard stop order to $280 and let it ride.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) bullish trendMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) based on technical indicators commonly used by stock brokers and experts.
Overall, based on the technical indicators, MSFT appears to be in a bullish trend, with a "Strong Buy" rating based on moving averages and technical analysis.
The current stock price for MSFT is $283.18, with a 1-month high of $284.46 and a 1-month low of $245.61. The price has increased by 0.50040813% or $1.41, which is a relatively small gain, indicating that the stock may be consolidating or in a short-term correction.
The Oscillators Rating is "Neutral," which means that momentum indicators are not showing a clear direction for the stock price in the short-term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.7315736, which is above the 50 level, indicating that the stock is in a bullish trend, but not yet in overbought territory.
The Stochastic %K (14,3,3) is at 87.30991423, which is above the overbought level of 80, indicating that the stock may be due for a correction in the short-term. However, the Stochastic %D (14,3,3) is at 83.47672967, which is also above the overbought level, indicating that the bullish momentum may continue in the near term.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 36.8321884, which suggests that the stock is in a trend, but the strength of the trend is not very strong. The MACD Level (12, 26) is at 4.55233401, which is positive and above the signal line of 4.6224275, indicating that the stock may be in a bullish trend in the short-term.
The Aroon Up (14) is at 92.85714286, which is above the Aroon Down (14) of 0, indicating that the stock is in a strong bullish trend. The Bull Bear Power is 9.08816121, which suggests that the bulls are currently in control of the stock price.
In terms of moving averages, MSFT has a "Strong Buy" rating based on the Moving Averages Rating, with the Exponential Moving Average (20) at 275.6322072, the Exponential Moving Average (50) at 267.92250002, and the Exponential Moving Average (200) at 255.35050369. The stock is also trading above the Simple Moving Average (10) of 278.57339 and the Exponential Moving Average (30) of 272.56085621, both of which are also bullish indicators.
In summary, based on the technical indicators analyzed, MSFT appears to be in a bullish trend in the short to medium-term, with a potential for a correction in the near-term based on the Stochastic %K indicator. However, the overall trend remains positive with moving averages and other indicators suggesting a "Strong Buy" rating for the stock. As always, it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
MSFT $350 AND BEYOND Microsoft has been a big player in the AI industry recently and has been making a lot of buzz lately. Their acquisition of ChatGPT was an strategic play against GOOGLE to position themselves better as a search engine. GOOGLE has been the leader as a search engine but things look like they are changing soon.
Other than that, MSFT has a couple good reasons why it is a good investment:
Established brand and resources: Microsoft is an established technology company with significant resources and a long history of innovation. Its vast network of developers and engineers, coupled with its access to cutting-edge technology and data, could give it a significant advantage in the AI market.
Diversification: By entering the AI market, Microsoft could diversify its revenue streams and reduce its reliance on traditional software products. As AI technology continues to develop and become more ubiquitous, Microsoft's investment in this field could position it for long-term growth and success.
Customer base: Microsoft has a large customer base that includes both consumers and businesses. Its AI technology could be integrated into existing products, such as Office 365 and Azure, providing a seamless experience for customers. This integration could create significant value for both Microsoft and its customers, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
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Google - A Manipulation Dump and an Antitrust Exit PumpIf you have a taste for anything like freedom of speech, neither Google nor YouTube are companies you will like. This thing started as a search engine that actually had the motto "Don't Be Evil" before it was corrupted by the Chinese Communist Party when "very smart people" wanted to get it into China.
You see, doing business with "China" right now always means licking the boots of the "Chinese Communist Party."
This means you have to toe the Party Line, and that means topics like the June 4 Tiananmen Square Massacre and the persecution against Falun Gong, and Hong Kong democracy have to be suppressed in accordance with whatever the regime says during the previous, current, and future 2 hour periods of each and every day.
It was then that Google developed a taste for its own form of shadowbanning and thought itself smart to roll out the CCP's ethos into its worldwide business model. When you search for content you get curated whatever gibberished and extreme leftist-establishment stuff it thinks it can give you to either attempt to nudge your opinion and values (DONALD TRUMP BAD!), or to just cover up the truth (try finding an update on the pandemic situation in China that isn't 2 weeks old).
As scary as all of that is, more terrifying is the way that Google is able to control the editorial direction of every single website on the planet, especially news media, by strictly controlling the web ads market, which it has controlled 90% of for many years.
Don't want to follow the Party's edicts on stuff like the Marxist revolutionary group Black Lives Matter destroying cities? Don't want to promote masking, social distancing, and mandatory vaccination during a "pandemic"?
Then they take your site's ad revenue away, for real.
Hint: there aren't many ways to make money with a website whose product is free words ("news") besides advertisements.
On Jan. 24 the US Department of Justice finally launched an antitrust suit against Google , seeking to financially penalize and force Google to divest its share of the markets.
What's scary about this for investors is that Google inked $209 billion in revenue from web ads in 2021. According to Q3 Financials, ~$167 billion of its $207 billion in revenue for the 9 months ending in September 2022 came from web advertisements.
This part of its business is pretty much what Google actually is. The search engine is really just there to dominate the Internet for the purposes of keeping the ad revenue train clutched in their own claws.
And curiously, when the DOJ made the suit's announcement, Google's share price only fell $6, and over the course of two days, before rebounding in the big tech short squeeze.
This is kind of a big deal because Google losing its web ad business means Google goes out of business, and US Government antitrust lawsuits aren't this kind of thing that they drop one day or that the courts or a jury will side against the administration on.
Google's Q4/FY22 earnings is Feb. 2 postmarket. This timing is especially significant considering that the FOMC rate hike is Feb. 1.
The question when facing a strange price action situation underwritten by big fundamental changes with multiple culminating timing catalysts is always: Is the stock going to go up or is it going to go down?
The thing about Google's monthly bars is there's a very small gap at $81.05, which was conveniently evaded in the October dump and kept off during the Nov-December market retrace.
The clearest view of overall price action is on the weekly candles:
My thesis is that Google will have a terrible earnings call, regardless of whatever data it puts out, because of the pending lawsuit. I suspect markets will bear trap with FOMC, regardless of the fundamentals. All of these come together to make me believe that February prints $79-$81.
Makes for a nice 25% short.
But when this arrives, I believe Google and the Nasdaq in general will actually turn around and really trend hard upwards, regardless of the fundamentals.
This makes for a nice 29.5% long if Google really only retraces into the $95 gap, and a 50%+ long if she goes into the $81 range.
I believe the reason a tech pump will happen is because the sector attracts the biggest suckers (retail, Robinhood, Reddit, Cathy Woods, Jim Cramer) and Wall Street will be using them to empty their bags.
Citadel and JPM and friends always buy low and sell high. They don't buy high and sell low. That's what you do.
If banks and funds did that, they'd be broke like you are, and we'd have Bear Sterns every month.
Once big tech starts to trend upwards, you have to be careful. The market will more or less do what Tesla did the last two weeks and just go uppy as weekly puts expire worthless.
And there will be no real sign of anything fundamental that should stop the train. Everyone will flip bullish for one reason or another (mah 200 DMA, meh trendlines, moh 76.321847234% Fibonacci) and it'll seem like it's time to get back to the good old days of 2021.
But it's not 2021. It's 2023, and everything is broken. Summer is going to be harsh, and Autumn will scare you.
And then the Chinese Communist Party will be destroyed by Wuhan Pneumonia seemingly overnight, and all the plans will be interrupted.
My advice to traders is to just risk a lot less and try to keep your risk within your winnings as much as possible. Also, if you really do see a black swan with China that crashes markets, don't buy that dip. Not even a scalp. It won't be like COVID hysteria was with 1,000 point up and down swings on the Dow this time. Everything will just gap down and stay down.
Liquidity will be a precious commodity.
One thing I've learned is that people never believe in what they think can't happen until it's unfolding in front of their face. Then they come back and are like "Wow it really did happen!"
Even I am subject to that flaw, because the length of time things take to unfold makes actually believing you are right very, very difficult.
That being said, I believe that we're looking at overall feverish bull market hysteria heading into May.
But what happens starting in May and heading into July is very likely going to change everyone's lives forever and ever.
Microsoft: Challenges and Opportunities for InvestorsMicrosoft's business appears to be slowing down, with the company's stock declining since the beginning of 2022 due to sales growth reaching its limit. Furthermore, large parts of the company's business, including the PC and video game segments, are shrinking, and the outlook for corporate technology spending in 2023 isn't looking good.
Despite these major problems, Microsoft has several aspects that are not as well known and point to solid returns for investors in the long run. For example, the company has a rich portfolio that covers attractive sectors such as cybersecurity, video games, and cloud services, offering more diversified participation in technology growth trends than many other peers.
Although some of these niches may go through periods of decline, Microsoft provides investors with exposure to attractive industries that offer solid returns in the long run. Additionally, Microsoft's stable cash flow is another strength that sets it apart from many of its peers. The company generated $20.4 billion in operating income in Q2 of fiscal 2023, just 8 percent less than the previous year, and its operating cash is still strong at $11.2 billion.
Despite the challenges facing most tech giants in 2023, Microsoft has several strengths that could help it weather the storm. For example, the company pays a dividend that was recently raised by 10 percent, has plenty of cash, and does not need to rely on costly debt to finance its business. Additionally, Microsoft's global sales presence should smooth out the volatility from the downturn in demand in some markets and niches.
In conclusion, although Microsoft's stock may not be recession-proof, the company's strengths provide it with the flexibility to continue investing in high-yield projects such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality, ensuring that long-term growth prospects are not jeopardized by a few weak quarters.
$MSFT: Buy the dip to join the trend#Microsoft has a very interesting weekly uptrend signal active here, while the daily has just had a correction that ran its course. This gives us an interesting reward to risk entry to join the weekly trend at a more favorable reward to risk spot.
It's interesting how $GOOGL's monopoly in search being disrupted might affect things going forward also. On one hand, $MSFT has a chance at gaining ground in advertising and $GOOGL a chance to take a huge hit to their search margins if forced to integrate LLMs into it due to pressure from $MSFT (it was a big number, +30% hit). This might kick start some soul searching in $GOOGL, since they had been quite complacent and developed a ton of fluff thanks to their dominant position in search favoring it, a lot of excess they needed to shake off (head count, ridiculous woke practices and divisions burning $ for no reason like Waymo or miraculous anti aging methods to name a few, lots and lots of fat to shed).
$MSFT has done a better job in that regard, and are well positioned thanks to their subscription service model producing recurrent revenues and cash generation. Of the two, $MSFT is better run, by a lot...
Technically, $GOOGL is below weekly support while $MSFT is in a weekly uptrend and erased a recent monthly decline.
All things considered from a long term perspective I would be inclined to invest in $MSFT long term here, rather than $GOOGL, and the entry point here seems to be low risk vs potential reward, even in the short and mid term. It's certainly worth considering.
Best of luck if you do follow this buy signal.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NVDA Microsoft and OpenAI's ChatGPT 4 RevolutionNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures graphics processing units, as well as other specialized processors for a wide range of applications such as gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.
As of the current market data, NVDA is priced at $240.82 with a 1.02% increase in the last trading session. The 1-month high and low for the stock were $244.54 and $204.21, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for NVDA is at 58.90, indicating a neutral market sentiment for the stock.
NVDA has been showing strong bullish momentum, as evidenced by its Average Directional Index (ADX) of 16.02. Additionally, the Moving Averages Rating for NVDA is Strong Buy, indicating that the stock is trading above its short-term and long-term moving averages.
However, the Awesome Oscillator for NVDA is at 5.08, indicating a weak bullish momentum. The MACD Level (12,26) is positive at 2.95, but the MACD Signal (12,26) is at 3.01, indicating a bearish trend reversal in the short term. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is currently at 85.94, suggesting that the stock may be overbought.
The company's financials also look strong, with a YTD performance of 4.28%. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) for NVDA are also positive, with the 20-day EMA at 234.73, 50-day EMA at 225.89, and 200-day EMA at 191.54.
Overall, NVDA appears to be in a bullish trend, with strong financials and technical indicators. However, investors should be cautious of a possible bearish trend reversal in the short term. Microsoft new partner OpenAI will make Microsoft better than Google. Will see
MSFT Update (options)Through their tales of joy and pain,
We'll learn to dance in life's sweet rain.
So listen well to words from the wise,
And let their knowledge be your prize.
As an update to my idea yesterday, I discussed that if MSFT broke down, that we'd head toward $253 and we got to $253.58 which is down from 256.87 where we closed yesterday.
MSFT filled the gap in the first 15 minutes of trading then was rejected in a big way. I believe we'll hit that target of 253 exactly, but will be watching for a move back toward 247 if we break 253.
Watch the wavemaster on the 15, though. We're pretty oversole so don't be surprised if we get a bounce tomorrow in the first part of the day before potentially reversing lower later in the day.
US30 A Great Selling Opportunity 🤨👌Trade Proposal:
There is a probability of first tp to the proposed ( 30000,00 ) Direction line. So, Traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term goals.
Technical analysis:
US30 is in Downtrend and It is Expected to Continue Downtrend.
Microsoft growth doubt$MSFT has been down trending following this parallel channel's support & resistance, now testing resistance at $280 which is perfectly aligned with the daily 200MA & 0.5 fib level.
Fundamentally, fear from Q3 results because of interest rates hike & recession doubts, share holders will take partial profits at $280 or a little bit higher protecting themselves from the negative earnings impact.
DXY soaring:
TVC:DXY
NYSE FANG+ Index: wait is better⌛' The NYSE FANG+ Index is a rules-based, equal-weighted equity benchmark designed to track
the performance of 10 highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies in the
technology, media & communications and consumer discretionary sectors'.
Companies included in the index:
Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Snowflake and Advanced Micro Devices.
Graphically speaking, I would expect a better definition of which way the price is going.
Looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index, I would say that opening a long position would be too risky.
Below are some possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5: