Microsoft
Microsoft -> It's Now Or NeverHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe Microsoft stock just recently created an awesome double bottom and also already broke above the neckline confirming the weekly pattern.
As we are speaking the market is retesting the neckline of the double bottom which is now turned support so from a weekly perspective I just do expect the continuation towards the upside from here.
On the daily timeframe however the market is currently massively bearish and I definitely don't want to catch a falling knife so I am now just waiting for some bullish structure on the daily timeframe before I will look to enter longs to capitalize on the continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Is it “game over” for Microsoft's Activision acquisition?When two hugely successful companies join forces, the initial market response is not always a bullish one, and traders who follow company mergers and takeovers know the only thing to count on is volatility. But what about the long run? Should traders buy in early and wait for the big picture to move the markets?
What’s happened so far?
Microsoft (MSFT) made headlines in January after announcing a hefty $69 billion bid to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI), the largest video game developer of all time. The acquisition is Microsoft's biggest ever.
Despite the huge number, this isn't necessarily a crazy bet for Microsoft. Gaming was already a booming business before the pandemic, and lockdowns further increased its appeal.
Estimates put gaming revenue increases at over 20% in recent years, approaching a staggering $200 billion, which has attracted the attention of tech giants such as Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and, of course, Microsoft.
Traders have already seen movement on the charts since the announcement, but the deal isn’t done just yet, as competitor Sony raised concerns about the monopolization of the industry. This brings the UK's regulatory commission, Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), into play.
What the CMA says about Microsoft’s acquisition
The CMA is expected to announce its provisional findings soon, which could either clear the way for the mega-deal, or put an unappealable halt to it.
The CMA has expressed concerns that the takeover could lead to competition issues in the console and subscription market, as well as in the growing cloud gaming sector.
Microsoft's goal in acquiring Activision Blizzard is to add popular games like Call of Duty to its portfolio, which already includes the Halo franchise and Minecraft.
Regulators around the world are worried that Microsoft dominance may soon make it harder for rivals to access Activision's popular titles. The CMA's decision is significant, as UK courts rarely overturn CMA merger decisions, and if the deal is blocked, there is little recourse for Microsoft and Activision.
The CMA's ruling will come before decisions from the EU and the US Federal Trade Commission, which has sued to veto the transaction.
In the hopes of greasing the wheels, Microsoft offered to grant a 10-year license for Call of Duty to its rival Sony. But that doesn’t address the issue that all upcoming Activision titles may become XBOX exclusives, leaving Sony’s PS5 catching dust in the corner.
Conclusion
If Microsoft’s Activision acquisition goes through, MSFT stocks probably won’t make much movement. Even though the purchase is $69 Billion, the effect on the company's profitability won’t be seen anytime soon—if ever.
In contrast, Activision stock soared by 25% after the acquisition was announced.
If the deal is blocked, we may see those early investors pulling out, and a rather rapid correction for ATVI. Don’t forget, last year the CMA concluded that Meta's purchase of GIPHY would limit choice for social media users, and Meta was ordered to sell GIPHY, so it’s not such a stretch to imagine the deal getting canceled.
MSFT is an amazing company to trade either way, but consider focusing your research and analysis on ATVI in the coming weeks and months and be ready for the CMA decision.
- By Paul Reid
Microsoft Desc. Triangle ready to pop to $239.96Descending Triangle is forming on Microsoft.
Can we talk about the gaps and liquidity issues? Is it because of the broker TradingView is showing for the company?
It's shocking and one I avoid trading by all means.
Anyway, the bearish signs are there
21>7>200
RSI<50
Bearish bias
Target $239.96
ABOUT
Microsoft is a multinational technology company based in Redmond, Washington that was founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen.
The company's most famous product is the Microsoft Windows operating system, which is used by over a billion people worldwide.
Microsoft also develops and produces a wide range of other software products, including the Microsoft Office suite, the Edge web browser, and the Xbox gaming console.
It's value is over $2 trillion in market cap
And of course the company is a major player in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and is working on a number of innovative projects, including chatbots, speech recognition, and machine learning.
VPLM Bullish AF- STOCKTWITS STRONG BUY!!! TODASO!I have anchored the FIB from the breakout earlier his year and then included the wick at the top. I have Vwap anchored to weekly and it's nice how all these level have similar confluence. We have a pennant which is neutral but it's also a bull flag as well. The flag pole gives us the extrapolation for a target above. Fib levels, vwap and 200ema etc for lower targets. Not financial advice, DYOR.
From Stocktwits
History101
Yesterday 7:09 PM
$VPLM for all the new visitors to the VPLM board, welcome. I thought I'd re-post some info to get you up to speed (several posts below). Summary: VPLM has been defending its patents against multiple HUGE tech company infringers for 10+ years. Google, Samsung, Tmobile, Meta, Amazon, etc. VPLM has been winning over & over again, in court and at the patent board. It is the 9th inning now, with court dates set for this summer IN WACO TEXAS, a court (and jury) that supports patent property rights. The big boys are in a big bind, and we investors might have a decent shot at some real $$. Not investment advice, GLTA
From
investorshub.advfn.com
GreenBackClub
Re: None
Tuesday, January 24, 2023 7:01:49 PM
Post#
112387
of 113349
FOR ANYONE CLAIMING THAT VPLM HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING MEANINGFUL FOR THE COMPANY AND SHAREHOLDERS I OFFER THIS LIST OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS BY VPLM THUS FAR:
* Up-listed from OTC-PINK to OTCQB
* Removed the DTC Chill
* Conducted an annual financial audit to be in full SEC compliance and fully reporting.
* Conducted an initial damages analysis for RBR parent patent.
* Initiated 4 federal infringement lawsuits to enforce VPLM's IP rights against Verizon, Apple, AT&T, Twitter.
* Initiated 1 federal infringement lawsuit to enforce VPLM's IP rights against Amazon.
* Agreed to having all 5 cases venue transferred to Northern California and consolidated for pre-trial purposes.
* Defended and defeated 8 IPR petitions brought before the PTAB by Unified Patents, Apple and Verizon/ATT.
* Successfully defeated a motion, in part, for sanctions by Apple at the PTAB.
* Successfully defeated an Alice motion brought by Verizon & ATT.
* 27 total patents granted and issued as of February 2019 (21 U.S. Patents).
* Granted RBR patent in Europe without any opposition challenge within 9 month challenge period.
* successful efforts to recoup most of the 100 million shares from Richard Kipping et al
* Upgraded the Board of Directors to include new members with extensive experience in M&A.
* Brought on board new boutique NYC law firm (Kevin Malek) to go to battle against the big silicon defendants.
* Brought on board terrific superstar lawyer in luis Hudnell
- ceo malak returned many hundreds of millions of shares back to the treasury to reduce the outstanding share count (to the benefit of shareholders)
And more recently…….
***Patents have been validated***
***Initial damages analysis done***
***Defeated 12 more IPRS (20 total)**
***IPRs have been appealed and upheld unanimously***
***No patents have been invalidated***
*** Current with all requisite filings***
***current with prosecuting patents and keeping both parent and child patents current***
***Reduction in OS count (thanks Emil!)***
***Some claims (@20) invalidated for RBR but could be overturned with a decision on Axle at the Supreme Court***
***NDCA is a very difficult court to win as it is defendant friendly. Waco is fair and plaintiff friendly***
***Foot in the door in WACO and now some defendants must remain in Waco (Amazon’s writ of mandamus denied!) and face a trial. Other defendants currently stayed in NDCA are tied to Waco results***
***Albright is a judge that is perceived as fair, by the books and fast which means vplm will be given a fair chance to argue / defend patents on the merits (all we could ask for)***
***99% of Albright's cases settle before trial. Albright encourages settlement ALL THE TIME. If defendants get to trial they have been given multiple chances to settle so they can’t expect Leniency from judge Albright***
***Defendants are NOT working together as a formal consolidated group. There is a disconnect - which plays into VPLM’s favor***
***Most big defendants will settle before providing source code when discovery is requested and required. Vplm is well into discovery phase so it is only a matter of when and not if source code will be demanded***
***Apple's own expert admitted in court in virnetx case - on the record - that they use relays to route their calls (imessage, facetime, etc.). This admission will come to bite the apple in the butt***
***Apple tried to file a patent when VPLM was updating their RBR child patent but they failed to do so before VPLM did. We were first to file at USPTO. Now why did they do this? --> because they wanted to get around infringing. Sorry apple, you lose again***
***60+ companies have received letters that notified them of possible infringement AND offered them the chance to take a license. This was years ago. Willful infringement equals treble damages!***
***Apple and others can be brought back into litigation as they were dismissed WITHOUT PREJUDICE***
$GOOGL OverreactionThis situation is quite silly. The media is blowing it out of proportion and believes OpenAi is the second coming of Jesus. Google has 91% market share of Search, and Bing has about 2% share. Microsoft, part owner of OpenAi, plans to grow their search efforts and compete with Google search. The threat is that Bing may take a couple percent. In reality, people won't be switching their browsers where they have their passwords, addresses, bookmarks, email account, extensions, payments, and more saved over an implementation of ChatGPT, which they can just use separately from search.
Remember, people hate change, especially when it ruins convenience. ChatGPT is cool, and I've been playing with it since December, it has plenty of it's own problems. No one has invested more in Ai then Google.
As far as the trade goes. Any buys at this level are a good entry. $85-$90 even better.
MicroSoft Going Hard on Google (unveils ChatGPT vs BARD) Charts first: 258.78 is double support we can count on, structure is quite strong.
313 will be our main target for 2023 and it could come fast as the news are Huge:
Microsoft has announced a new version of its search engine Bing, which incorporates the latest in artificial intelligence.
The overhaul deploys OpenAI's ChatGPT technology, which has taken the world by storm since its launch last year.
The move is by far the biggest threat Google has seen to its dominance in web search - and marks the beginning of an AI arms race between the companies.
"The race starts today," Microsoft boss Satya Nadella said.
Developed by Microsoft-backed OpenAI, ChatGPT uses deep learning techniques to generate human-like responses to search requests.
At the same time, GOOGLE announces their response to ChatGPT, in a race to come ahead of the popular AI service funded by Microsoft.
Google’s Bard AI will soon enter beta and will be available to select testers around the world, months after OpenAI’s ChatGPT exploded in popularity.
This will be interesting to watch and I do have a feeling that Google will win but the race will benefit Microsoft, at least temporarily.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
US equity on a bull run as big tech finds its mojo In recent days we’ve heard bearish equity calls from prominent strategists at Morgan Stanley, JPM and Goldman Sachs all calling for lower levels in equity markets – as with any market call, it’s the logic and rationale that is of most interest, and it’s the idea that the investment bank sales team pitch to their clients. These calls help market players become more aware of the triggers for a move, but what the market does can often be another thing.
In reality in trading, price is all that matters.
One could say fed funds terminal pricing, which now sits at 5.15% should see risky assets headed lower, but this is far from true. US equity is pushing higher driven by tech and some cyclicality (the S&P500 energy sector closed +3%) and while much of the move of late has been driven by low-quality stocks, we now see big tech showing real leadership again.
Jay Powell acknowledged the disinflationary progress we heard in the FOMC statement and suggested fed funds could go higher if the labour market gets tighter – this puts further emphasis on the next NFP report on 11 March. Prior to that though, next week’s US CPI print is the marquee event risk and could greatly affect the bullish flow if we see core CPI above 5.7% (the consensus is for 5.5% YoY) – this would see US bond yields spike all across the curve and long-duration assets smacked hard, as traders go about their business thinking we could get a fed funds rate into 5.5% and above.
Of course, the opposite is true if we show further moderation in US core CPI below 5.4% and the equity bulls will add to a growing long position – volatility will fall and active managers will chase the tape. Strength, as we know, often breeds strength.
A rally in tech, driven by Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet, is clearly helping – the space is cranking up and the AI battle ramps up, with MSFT rolling out new versions of its search engines that incorporate ChatGPT. MSFT (+4.2%) looks truly bullish on the daily, having found a platform off the 200-day MA and subsequently broken to new cycle highs. Google (+4.6%) also revealed a rival to ChatGPT, oddly named “Bard” and we watch its Search and AI-focused event in Paris in the session ahead.
Cyclicals are working well too, and after a momentary blip look to re-establish a bullish performance relative to defensive areas of the market – a resumption of a move higher in crude and Chinese markets would help.
While the street beats a more pessimistic message on stocks, the fact that tech is finding its mojo means long NAS100 / short US30 remains a favoured tactical play and one I’ve been pushing in the ‘Trade Off’ series – when 10% of the Dow Jones index is weighted towards United Health you see how the index typically underperforms here – the joys of price-weighted markets. That said, for those who are less au faux with long/short trading then I look for a close above 4180 (in the US500) suggests a greater probability of testing 4300, where I have no doubt the shorts sellers will be very keen to look at new exposures.
The NAS100 needs a break of 12,800 but I am either long or neutral but shorts on any timeframe outside of intraday seem a lower probability for now.
Microsoft -> All Timeframes Are BullishHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
Microsoft is looking extremely juicy right now. From a weekly perspective we just created a long term double bottom and we also broke above a long term downtrend line.
There is definitely the possibility that after a short term pullback, we will start the next bullrun from here, creating new all-time-highs in the process.
From a daily perspective I am just waiting for a short term retest of the weekly neckline of the double bottom and then there is a very high chance that we will also see the daily continuation to the upside from here.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT.
"Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed."
Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers.
ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models.
ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.
Microsoft - Extreme Bearish SentimentI see a gruesome bloodbath in the American stock market. Stocks are showing heavy bearish sentiment. Microsoft rose to as high as $349. A drop started at that price point and will continue right down to 141. A BREAK OF STRUCTURE at 141 will then send the price falling to around $14 (My Point Of Interest).
Things are really getting interesting!!!
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Smart Money Concepts are king in the market. Move with the big sharks or get ravaged!!!
Microsoft -> Very Bullish Inverted Head And ShouldersHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
Microsoft just recently perfectly tested and rejected a quite strong and obvious previous support/resistance zone towards the upside. It also seems like Microsoft is about to create a double bottom from a weekly perspective, which is generally speaking a very bullish pattern, leading to more upside potential.
On the daily timeframe we actually have a quite interesting situation. You can see that the market is currently crating an inverted head and shoulders and just yesterday and today broke above and retested the neckline, which again is simply previous resistance which is now turned support.
Now from here I do expect further continuation towards the upside, confirming the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
MSFT daimond bottomThe diamond bottom pattern is not a common formation but is considered a strong bullish reversal pattern amongst technical analysts. This bullish reversal pattern first expands from the left-hand side and then contracts into a narrower range, until price breaks out above the resistance line and completes the pattern.
Microsoft: You can do it 💻Despite the recent outage, Microsoft is fighting its way back to the top and should exceed the resistance line at $265.00 soon to continue its upwards slope. Our alternative scenario with a probability of 40% implies that the stock could tire and drop below the support line at $212.25, instead of rising to the top. In this case, the course would sink into the grey target zone to fulfill the superior grey wave alt. IV before heading back North in the longterm.
MSFT Microsoft Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI creator of ChatGPTMSFT has reached our Buy area:
Microsoft purchased a 49% stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, for $10 billion.
Which i think it will turn out to be the best investment in MSFT history!
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) integrates Chat GPT into its Bing, Office, and it Azure service!
Now looking at the MSFT Microsoft options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $245 strike price Calls with
2023-2-27 expiration date for about
$1.60 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Or at least buy shares for the long run! They will compete with GOOGL thanks to OpenAI.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Trading Idea 007: MicrosoftMarket Conditions:
- bearish trend
- correction movement
- bullish sentiment in the market
Key Level and Lines:
- $241.51 resistance
Trading Ideas:
- go long after a consolidation around the resistance
- a false breakout and bearish sentiment in the market = trade opportunity for shorting.
Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2023 EarningsMicrosoft (MSFT) reported the second fiscal quarter 2023 financial results after the market close. EPS beat the low estimates but revenue came below expectations, Azure cloud unit showed strong growth. Here are the key points:
Earnings per share came at $2.32 a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago but topping the expectations of $2.27.
Revenue for the quarter came at $52.7 billion below the expectations of $52.94 billion. Revenue growth is 2% (YoY) which is the slowest pace since 2016.
The Intelligent cloud revenue reported at $21.51 billion below the estimates of $21.43 billion.
Server products and cloud services revenue increased 20% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
Azure grew 38% (YoY) topping the consensus of 37%. Here are the last quarters Azure growth:
Q3 ’21: 48%
Q4 ’21: 46%
Q1 ’22: 49%
Q2 ’22: 46%
Q3 ’22: 42%
Q4 ’22: 38%
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.0 billion.
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $14.2 billion and decreased 19%.
Operating income was $20.4 billion GAAP and $21.6 billion non-GAAP
Diluted earnings per share were $2.20 GAAP and $2.32 non-GAAP
Here is Microsoft’s $MSFT December Quarter Revenue since 2006
2006: $12.5B
2007: $16.4B
2008: $16.6B
2009: $19B
2010: $20B
2011: $20.9B
2012: $21.5B
2013: $24.5B
2014: $26.5B
2015: $23.8B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $28.9B
2018: $32.5B
2019: $36.9B
2020: $43.1B
2021: $51.7B
2022: $52.7B
Microsoft Analyst’s Expectations and latest Price Target
Analysts expected Microsoft to report earnings per share of $2.27 and revenue of $52.94. Revenue growth for the Azzure segment is expected to grow by 37%.
On January 20, Mizuho reiterated Microsoft at Buy and reduced the price target from $305 to $290. Guggenheim on January 17, downgraded MSFT from Neutral to Sell and set a price target of $212.
MICROSOFT - EARNINGSMSFT is trading under key resistance as seen by the white trendline. The price action and trend still favors downside bias however there is a key gap fill around $257 that would be a perfect short level if it popped off of earnings.
Based off of the rally in the indexes, MSFT has been a lagger in tech which could be displaying relative weakness.
Trader thoughts - is the risk rally for chasing?A tough day for the equity bears or those positioned short risk – but why we’ve seen such upbeat risk flow is the subject of debate – for me, the idea of not overthinking things is advantageous - always trying to justify a move doesn’t offer much edge when trading – it’s about extracting the most out of a trade (if on the right side of the move), but reacting and managing the position if offside. Being wrong is part of the game, but as the old saying goes “just don’t stay wrong”.
The question now is do you chase the move in equity and risk FX?
Personally, I have my views on the moves – I think this is a portfolio shift – the market has been so underweight US equity and long Europe, UK, and China and ahead of big tech quarterly earnings we’re seeing a repositioning – back into big US tech, into growth from value, while cash levels (as a % of AUM) are being drawn down – the recent BoA/ML fund manager survey offers interesting guidance here.
There is nothing to change a market narrative and affect sentiment than a market going up with a increased rate of change and while fund managers don’t like to chase a market, so often strength begets strength – especially when we’re above the 200-day MA and price has finally closed above the Jan 2022 downtrend. The fact NAS100 cash volumes were 39% above the 100-day average shows the flows, especially as the gains came when US treasury yields were up across the curve.
The trade seems to be long NAS100/short UK100 (or short Europe) – although we can do it through individual stocks and ETFs too – long QQQs is a proxy for the tech trade although my preference is to use indices for pairs trades (better leverage and limited gapping risk). We’re also seeing long XRT (retail ETF/short SPY) working well, and I think there is more juice here. Microsoft is the clear catalyst now to the tech trade, where they report after-market in the session ahead – the market expects a -/+4% move on earnings and we know they do have a decent pedigree, having beaten consensus EPS and sales assumptions in 7 of the past 8 quarters.
What is interesting is the flow-on effects in FX markets – buying AUD, NZD or NOK makes sense as they are the high beta risk plays – ok, we haven’t seen much participation from the commodity complex – China is offline for Lunar NY - but as a rule of thumb if growth equity is working then traders will gravitate to buy the AUD. The question here with AUDUSD having broken out and made new cycle highs has this the momentum to test the August 2022 highs of 0.7120? This is where running a simple mechanical stop (such as a 3- v 8-day EMA crossover) keeps you in the trade.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are less clear as the beta to equity are far lower and one could argue that as US equity outperformed, we’ve seen capital flow to the USD – hence the sell-off from 1.0927.
Chasing rallies never feels right – in fact, most retail traders will feel more compelled to sell the rip (Pepperstone clients are actually skewed perfectly 50/50 on open positions in NAS100) - but consider with Microsoft, IBM and Intel hitting us with numbers this week and the likes of Apple and Alphabet next week – if the bar is still sufficiently low enough and earnings come out topside – a big if of course – then these mentioned dynamics could still have good legs.