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Microsoft softening up for a fall. MSFTAnyone else notice this triple divergence that already formed? Who knows what will happen with this large cap, as it is constantly propped by bail out coof money, but lets see anyway. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rykin_Capital
Microsoft | Fundamental Analysis | Long Setup | MUST READ ! Microsoft recently became the subject of heated controversy following Satya Nadella selling more than half of his shares for about $285 million at the beginning of last week. As per an F-4 filing, the CEO sold 838,584 shares at prices ranging from $334.37 to $349.22, reducing his total stake to 830,791 shares. Should investors be worried about such an extensive deal? Let's go back to Nadella's achievements, his salary, and previous stock sales to come to some conclusion. When Nadella took over as Microsoft's third CEO seven years ago, the tech behemoth was in serious difficulty. New cloud services were undermining its desktop software, Windows users were adamantly sticking with legacy versions of the OS, and the company was losing out to Apple and Alphabet's Google in the mobile market. But Nadella extremely altered things by actively developing the company's cloud services, redefining Windows as a cloud service, and dropping Windows Phone to launch new mobile apps for iOS and Android. Microsoft's cloud business has been a major driver of the company's growth, with revenues rising from $86.8 billion in fiscal 2014 to $168.1 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended in June of this year, and EPS more than tripling. With this growth, Microsoft's market value has risen from $300 billion on Nadella's first day in office to nearly $2.5 trillion today. So Nadella unquestionably earns to sell some of his stock after this historic rally. In the fiscal year 2021, Satya Nadella's total compensation rose 13% to $49.9 million. This amount includes a base salary of $2.5 million, equity compensation of $33 million, and non-equity incentives of $14.2 million. Thus, Nadella's latest deal pictures several years of cumulative stock awards. The deals also represent Nadella's only non-equity direct sales in the past two years. Microsoft CFO Amy Hood also sold 60,000 shares (11% of the stock she owned at the time) at an average price of $303.08 in a direct transaction on Sept. 1. This was Hood's first direct sale since last September. These insider sales are not certainly an indication that Microsoft is facing difficulties. Executives sell their stock all the time for personal reasons that have nothing to do with the company's immediate and long-term prospects. For example, Microsoft co-founder and first CEO Bill Gates sold most of his stock before leaving the board in early 2020 - but the company's stock has continued to rise. Over the past three years, Microsoft stock has nearly tripled, and in the past 12 months alone, it has risen more than 50 percent. Analysts expect the company's revenues and profits to grow 17% and 14%, respectively, this year, but the stock certainly isn't cheap -- it's worth 36 times its projected earnings. This higher ratio -- along with macroeconomic factors such as inflation, supply chain pressures, and the new COVID-19 option -- may have convinced Nadella, Hood, and other Microsoft insiders to sell some of their shares. Nevertheless, Nadella's shareholding will increase again this year as he gets more stock bonuses. In general, it's more useful for investors to track insider deals at struggling companies -- where insiders can make rosy promises of a turnaround while dumping their own stock -- than at successful companies. Microsoft is one incredibly successful company, and Nadella's big sale doesn't suggest that its long-term prospects have changed. As an outside investor, you also won't be entitled to more stock like Nadella, who can afford to sell his stock repeatedly because it makes up most of his paycheck. So it makes no sense to short Microsoft just because the CEO sold half of his current stake. Instead, investors should be looking at Microsoft's cloud growth and expansion of its ecosystem, rather than worrying about Satya Nadella's well-deserved salary.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FOREXN1
7
Microsoft | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...Microsoft's stock price reached an all-time high after the tech behemoth published its first-quarter earnings report last Tuesday. The company's revenue increased 22% year-over-year to $45.3 billion, beating analysts' forecasts by $1.3 billion. Adjusted earnings surged 25% to $2.27 per share, $0.19 above expectations. For the second quarter, Microsoft management expects revenue growth of 16% to 18% year-over-year, which also beat analysts' expectations of 14%. Microsoft's performance is majestic, but some investors may not crave to buy its stock after its price has already risen almost 50% in 2021. Let's look at a few reasons to buy Microsoft stock, as well as one argument for selling it, to see if it is still an attractive investment at these prices. First and foremost, of course, is the growth of Microsoft Cloud Computing. Microsoft's dramatic growth over the past seven years has been booste by the expansion of its cloud services, particularly Azure, Office 365, Dynamics, LinkedIn, and other cloud software. The business records the performance of these businesses together as "Microsoft Cloud." In the first quarter, Microsoft Cloud's revenue grew 36% year over year to $20.7 billion, matching the 36% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Revenue from Azure, the most thoroughly supervised segment of Microsoft Cloud, grew 48% on a constant currency basis. That represents an acceleration from Azure's 45% growth on a constant currency basis in the fourth quarter and should allay fears of a possible slowdown. Azure's share of the global cloud infrastructure market also grew from 19% to 21% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to Canalys. That puts it in second place behind Amazon Web Services (AWS), whose year-over-year market share was unchanged at 32%. Microsoft probably could not have achieved this growth without Satya Nadella, who took over as third CEO in 2014 and aggressively expanded these services with his mantra "mobile first, cloud first." Second, we should not forget the recovery of favorable trends. Over the past few years, Microsoft has become a fast-growth company again, but it continues to return tens of billions of dollars to its investors. During the pandemic, several Microsoft enterprise services, including Office 365 Commercial, Dynamics 365, and LinkedIn Marketing Solutions, were disrupted as businesses closed. However, as businesses resumed operations, those factors eased. In the first quarter, Office 365 and Dynamics 365 provided an acceleration in growth on a constant currency basis, and LinkedIn Marketing continued to grow. The growth of these "resurgent" segments, along with the continued growth of Azure and other cloud services, is offsetting the slowdown in Microsoft's Surface and Xbox units, which suffered from chip shortages and other supply chains constraints in the first quarter. Finally, it's returning a lot of cash to shareholders. In the fiscal year 2021, Microsoft spent more than $39 billion on dividends and stock buybacks, accounting for about 70% of free cash flow (FCF). The company will spend another $10.9 billion, or 58% of FCF, on both activities in the first quarter of 2022. Microsoft's forward dividend yield of 0.8% won't drag serious investors, but the company has reduced its stock by nearly 10% over the past seven years, offsetting the dilution from stock-based compensation plans. Still, there is one single reason to sell Microsoft: its valuation. Today Microsoft is worth $2.4 trillion, about eight times its market value of $300 billion when Satya Nadella became its CEO. The company's stock currently trades at 13 times this year's sales forecast and 35 times its earnings forecast. Those estimates are slightly overstated compared to analysts' expectations for sales growth of 14% and earnings growth of 9% this year. Massive market capitalization and high valuations could make it tough for Microsoft to repeat its multiple growth over the past seven years. Microsoft stock is priced very high, but bears have been sounding the alarm about th is for years while the company's stock has been soaring. Still, most would agree that Microsoft deserves such a high valuation because it is still a perfect long-term investment that will continue to profit from the expanding cloud services market.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FOREXN1
2
Tesla [TSLA] - BULLISH. BUY The Dips!!!This is why I am Anti-DCA. Not saying you wouldn't still be up on Tesla if you did it. Just saying, you'd made 5-10x more profit if you bough the dips. The only question is... HOW do you find the dips? As a technical analyst, that's what I do. Feel free to check my charing history on TradingView. :) If you are DCAing right now into Tesla, you may experience what happened to investors in January. I'd hold my money personally and wait for a dip.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TraderFromTheNorth
13