Palantir - Fear Worshippers of The All Seeing EyeI have to say that Palantir is a really difficult chart to read. On the one hand, looking at monthly bars, it's the kind of pattern which indicates new highs are in store.
Weekly bars are about the same. Nothing about this says you can short.
And its only that there's some divergences on the daily. But those divergences are really meaningful.
However, at the same time, although it's up some 220%+ from the bottom, the bottom did take out the IPO low, which is not bullish.
And these high prices are coming at a time when the Nasdaq and the SPX may very well have topped, which I address in my latest call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
Palantir is a company that is ostensibly a key component of the panopticon surveillance network that underlines the International Rules Based Order's version of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system.
At least, this is what rightists would tell you. If you asked the people behind the West's implementation of social credit, they would say they just seek to advance an enlightened society while keeping stability and security under control, and big data collection is crucial to that.
Well, if you ask CCP members, they would tell you the same thing, just coated in Marxist jargon.
And therein lies the problem. Mankind needs to return to its 5,000 year old traditions, which were reared and established over China's long dynasties, instead of trying to go Big Atheism and reinvent The Wheel.
Regardless of if Palantir at its current $37 billion valuation is a part of the future or a part of the past and gone with the wind, the last three months of trading have been totally one directional.
Which makes wanting to get short very deadly.
However, conditions for a short setup that is at least a scalp were formed with the July high on the 19th.
The reason for this is that price swept a key level and was met with a stiff rejection, taking a pivot.
All on its own, in the stock market with the way it just likes to go uppy or grind sideways, this makes shorting or puts hard, still.
But what we saw is daily candles double bottom at precisely $16.00, with Friday's trading session being yet another big green gainer on the back of such a bottom.
And so, as Buffet said, one should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful.
So the trade is to short somewhere between where we closed on Friday and over $18.
When another dump occurs, where it dumps to will tell us everything about the future.
If Palantir is truly bullish to more upside, it will preserve the June low at $13.56.
If it's really bullish, it should even preserve the July low at $14.62
If it's bullish, but is going to take until 2024 to go higher, we can expect prices under $12.
If it's bearish, prices under $11 are the target, with an all time low on deck and about to hit everyone on the face.
Which do I think is the most likely? Frankly, probably a dump under $15 and a new high in August.
There's no other way to put it or look at it at the moment.
For things to be different, you'd need something like a banking crisis to intervene in the markets, a prospect I undertake here:
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?
I believe that, all things considered, the risk side of the trade right now is people who are longing this top, regarding it as a dip to buy, expecting more highs.
Because people have capitulated, become greedy, and have taken their eyes off the clock.
You should remember that you're just standing in an equities bear market rally while central banks have their key rates pinned over 5% and no intention to cut.
This is bad news for stocks, and yet people are being told indexes are set to make a new all time high.
Repricing to the downside can come violently, aggressively, be gappy, and will give those on the wrong side of the trade no chance to get out.
Be very careful.
Microsoft
Microsoft -> A Long Term Double Top?Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Microsoft💪
On the monthly timeframe you can see that Microsoft stock once again retested the previous all time high at the $340 level and once again rejected it towards the downside.
You can also see that after the recent retracement on Microsoft, MSFT stock is approaching previous structure at the $320 level from which we could see a short term bullish bounce.
And last but not least I am just waiting for the daily timeframe to shift back to a bullish market before I then do expect a short term rejection away from the daily and weekly support area.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering IcebergLast week's SPX call was pretty accurate in terms of levels. What was wrong was only the order of operations and timing.
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon
I had felt it made sense for the market maker to sweep out the lows before taking the highs, but the plan was the opposite, and this actually adds credence to the theory that the markets are topping.
Something to keep in mind about calls for new all time highs, that we're hearing everywhere now, is that equities generally don't moon in high interest rate environments, and every central bank that matters in the world except for Japan is playing with 3-5%.
And nobody is cutting.
Warren Buffet said to "be fearful when others are greedy" and it's really a piece of wisdom you ought to take to heart, right now.
Something I would like to tell you is that tops and bottoms are, 100% of the time, hindsight calls. There is no way to actually accurately predict a top and a bottom before it unfolds.
What you can do as a trader, however, is anticipate that certain levels are the target, and look to see if price action and other covariances and fundamental factors confirm the theory if price trades to that level.
Then, using risk management and some rational logic, one can take the position, and shift their bias. If you can read the map and execute, you'll make a lot of money.
Otherwise, you can only make money if you're lucky, and few are particularly lucky, since we're all just mortals.
There's some problems with the "more uppy for more longer" theory.
A core factor is that the beginning of July marked a quarterly shift, and the entire month has been even more up.
There are now only August and September remaining. If it's not SPX 5,500 coming this year, the reversal is probably going to be violent, it stands to reason.
Another really crucial core factor is the geopolitical situation between the International Rules Based Order, which Washington ostensibly heads, and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping.
A really noticeable characteristic of all the clamoring in the propaganda machine is that they never go after "The Chinese Communist Party," they always go after "China" and Xi.
You should always remember this adage: "China is not the CCP."
You should always remember that when someone is attacking the world's only 5,000 year old culture and nation, the world's largest and most rich in natural resources and talent, they're likely to be Fabians.
Although Xi is, and has been for a decade, the leader of the CCP, the most notable thing about him is that he has never persecuted Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, who have been subjected to organ harvesting genocide under the edict of former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999.
In fact, Xi has actually protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong, hitting thugs who target the practice's spiritual cultivators with the Anti-corruption Campaign, after the National Security Law and John Lee were installed as Chief Executive.
It's notable that John Lee has been denied entry to San Francisco for the APEC economic summit in November by Joe Biden, on that account.
All of this is to say the geopolitical chatter you hear on "China" is a disaster waiting to happen with "Taiwan."
Speaking of Taiwan, I really believe that TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) is a significantly potent long to hedge with if the U.S. equities market goes sideways:
]TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
But "Taiwan War" does not mean that Xi is going to invade. The CCP is heavily weakened from the pandemic and in no position to be attacking an island that will become the Ukraine proxy war, but on a whole other level.
If Xi were really an idiot, the IRBO and the Jiang Faction would have been able to kill him years ago.
Instead, the CCP is about to fall, and what the IRBO is looking to do is depose Xi and replace him with a submissive and groomed toady from Taiwan, Maidan Revolution style (see Oliver Stone's film Ukraine on Fire).
If Xi is smart, he will weaponize the persecution of Falun Gong to defend China and himself, because Wall Street and the world government have been continuously going to Shanghai to train Marxism with the Jiangling toads, which means bloodying their hands in the persecution as "insurance."
Google the Neil Heywood story and give it some sober thought.
Back to price action and trading on the most important index right now: other risks are that both the Nasdaq and the Dow also took out the same pivot, and reacted in identical ways:
Another is that the VIX, which is already anomalously low, but won't print a single digit handle, has printed higher lows, followed by a breakout and retracement:
While 10-Year Treasury bonds, important because they represent the "Risk Free Rate," meaning huge, long term money can park cash here instead of taking risk in equities, look like a nightmare. (Rates up = bonds down)
It looks like a nightmare because Jerome Powell again said during the Q&A portion of the FOMC press conference that the inflation target is 2% while it's still 3.8% (What's 90% among friends?), that rate cuts aren't coming, and further pausing is totally contingent on economic data being spectacular in favour of deflation.
(Is not happening).
And all of the above is confirmed by the US Dollar Index's higher time frame candles showing the dump under 100.00 was really just a raid, and we're about to get our upside to 108+ on.
So, here's what I expect to happen as soon as Monday:
I believe, based on the price action that unfolded Thursday and Friday of this week, that the market makers will take advantage of Monday, July 31 to print the high of the month, breaking the 4,630 level to roughly 4,650.
This will kill all the short traders who entered early and shorted Friday, and bring in a great number of breakout traders.
I am anticipating (the key word is anticipating!) this will be a major bull trap and price will reverse.
The confirmation will be if price does retrace and takes the 4,544 level.
If so, this is no longer a dip to buy, and entering shorts on retrace will be difficult because the market makers are likely to reprice aggressively away from their trap at the top.
It may seem like a dump to 4,544 compared to 4,557 isn't very significant, being 13 points after all, forming just another "higher highs lower lows" expansion pattern.
But what taking 4,544 shows, in reality, is that the biggest money now wants to take sell stops and begin to capitalize on "The Big Short."
The first target for August, if this pans out, will be the 4,411.25 level.
It looks really far away on the chart, but it's only 200 points. Only 5 percent. Compared to last year's volatility and ranges, it's not really that big of a deal, especially for a while month.
You've just been Pavloved to follow the ring of a bell.
Moreover, the 4,411 level is also July's low.
A factor that I believe may lead to the destruction of the markets is latent malignancy in the banking sector, with Charles Schwab being the standout problem, I chronicle below:
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?
A lot of people are going to kill themselves buying the dip and getting stopped out and buying the dip again and getting stopped out again, if this all transpires according to the thesis.
And people who don't use stops are going to get gapped down on.
And those gap downs will be runaways that don't come back this time.
Equities bulls are going to get gapped on like every day and have Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy '22-style meltdowns.
However, if all of this does not transpire and price continues to reach over 4,700, then we can only say that the target the market makers really aspire for is ALL the liquidity over the 2021 all time highs circa 4,800.
What we have is dueling possibilities, one far more likely than the other: topping being a lot more likely than a new all time high because the the environment is one where the Fed Funds Rate is going to be 6%+ by year end.
But we need price action to confirm the theory.
All of the above is my gift to you, as readers, followers, and even trolls.
Our human race and this Planet Earth may really be in for an "early autumn" this year. The implications will shock not only the equities markets, but every aspect of our daily lives.
I wish you all a bright future, but you have to believe and execute before you can see and harvest fruit.
It's up to the individual to cultivate their hearts and minds accordingly.
Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, KillsFirst, I understand that Amazon had an excellent earnings report, whether analyst estimates were gamed to the downside and it was easy to beat notwithstanding.
What you have to be really careful of right now is the excess greed that abounds in the markets. Greed is the thing that kills accounts the fastest, and when you blow your account, there won't be any use for TradingView anymore, and nobody will be able to have fun until you can save up to reload.
I am not saying any kind of bearish commentary on Amazon, although you should have reservations on this company because a lot of its business model is just to serve as an export faucet for stuff made in the Chinese Communist Party's land.
And you have to be careful with anyone whose business is tightly knit to communist China, because the International Rules Based Order is chattering disaster about "de-risking" from China.
Because the narrative about "Taiwan Invasion" really means that the CCP is close to falling and everyone is thinking about how to take control of that country.
But to take control of China, you need someone Chinese, which means you need a handpicked appointment from the Republic of China who will serve the globalists.
All this, and the 24th year of persecution against Falun Dafa by the CCP's Jiang Zemin faction just completed on July 20. In 1999, Jiang began a full genocide and organ harvesting campaign against 100 million spiritual believers, and it's persisted to this day despite Xi Jinping never participating.
In fact, Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign has been hitting the corrupt officials involved in the persecution ever since he took power in 2012.
Consider that the next time you see the media going off about what a Mao Zedong Xi Jinping is.
Amazon's monthly provides some clarity. The most notable thing is that the 2021-2022 distribution bars during the rest of the market's bull run indicates a proper and clear topping pattern.
And despite that, price never took out the most critical of lows, the COVID pivot at $81.30.
Instead, it spared it by 13 cents. Because numerology.
What it means is that long term, $80 becomes a target.
What's notable about price action before today's earnings report pump is that Amazon maintained the July low, albeit barely.
And this creates three weekly lows of equal "support."
Which also becomes a target.
Bear in mind, with Nonfarm Payrolls also being tomorrow morning, you may get yourself a trade setup that looks something like what happened to AMD on Wednesday:
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
When its ER came in hot in premarket and at open, and turned into a huge sell off and red day:
So the point with this call is to say that the August '22 $146 pivot may really hold. And if it doesn't hold, it might just get raided.
Which makes buying the top tomorrow morning something that isn't a particularly intelligent thing to do.
Worse, it means that buying the dip may be trading in the wrong direction, while selling the dump's retrace might actually be an optimal short entry.
Just keep in mind that we may have as much as another 2-3% of downside left in the SPX before we retrade towards/take out the tops:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
If the markets really get blown to pieces heading into the end of Q3 in accordance with the JP Morgan collar, stuff like Amazon is going to head to a 5-handle by next year.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
You'll know the truth, in my opinion, when Amazon breaks the $125 flat bottoms, price won't come back, just like what happened with Netflix:
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives
What I really want to tell you all is that life still seems stable, it seems like all there is to worry about is making money and entertainment. But our world may very well change overnight, with no warning at all.
And what we've all done while the cards were still face down will be what determines who wins the pot and who loses their stack.
DBL TOP on MSFT? Waaaat! Long Term chart. #MSFT This double top on MSFT screams downside for the Stock Market in August, don't it? July 31st 2023. Levels = From 335 down to 320 316 off 21 SMA. 21 SMA bounce right here??
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing.
Earnings Summary
- Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b
- EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56
- Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B
- Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present.
You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish.
And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top.
Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious.
The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top.
Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly:
Only sweep the All Time High?
Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did?
Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT:
In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past.
Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice.
The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment.
The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide".
Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time.
If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life.
Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year).
The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire.
Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time.
Much to do before the call's key points.
Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead:
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?
Back to MSFT:
This is a very hard setup to trade
Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22)
Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy
But the short may only take us to the $320 range.
Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs
Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all.
Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is.
After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH.
But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT.
Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers.
When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching KnivesNetflix is that $200 billion company trading at $441.44 that everyone seem to have forgot about, even though it more than doubled in a year.
Personally, I think these streaming services are a colossal waste of your time and money. What you're watching is the intellectual equivalent of a Big Mac or a bag of potato chips, and permeated with the things of socialism and atheism.
And Netflix is really quite woke and some of the content is unforgivably degenerate.
You shouldn't look at warped mirrors and shouldn't cast your eyes on ugly things, or they'll twist your heart and your soul.
When it comes to the markets-at-large, I believe we're definitely going to see a correction, rather than a new all time high, which I detail in the two calls below:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
If there's to be a new all time high, let's wait and see what Q4 has in store for us.
There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets right now. The War between the Russian Federation and NATO via Ukraine is a big one, and a bigger one is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.
More or less, I believe the globalists want to topple the Party to have their men from Taiwan go in and take control of China and depose Xi.
But I believe Xi is likely to topple the Party himself before that can happen.
Big gaps will come that day and things will be very hard because Wall Street won't be in any kind of a risk-on mood.
The 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai toad faction is something Xi can weaponize to implicate the entire world.
Because to do business in Shanghai you've needed the Jiang Faction's approval. To get its approval, you've had to dirty your hands in the persecution and swear vows to the Flag of Blood.
And unfortunately, most of the world has wanted what the Party has. Read the story of British billionaire Neil Heywood, who decided to court Jiang's minion Bo Xilai.
Bo told Heywood that to prove his loyalty he had to divorce his wife. Heywood refused, and so Bo's wife poisoned him.
Heywood died in 2011.
Bo Xilai was ruined in Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign in 2013, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison in a CCP dungeon.
Gambling with the Party is one foot in the grave and the other in prison. Live a virtuous life instead.
Moreover, they always say zoom out. Looking at Netflix on the yearly, it's hard to say you're not in the crosshairs of a savage trend reversal.
And you can see these daily bars far more clearly on the weekly chart:
There might be that fat gap above that you have your eye on, but you're dealing with a very long and very steep ramp in the first place, and this is in a stock which stayed away from a true gap between April and August of '22.
Another notable factor is that the FINRA short volume for Netflix, while still notably low, is the highest it's been in three months and posted its first green month since April and only its second of '23.
Short volume
This is quite notable in light of the fact that June was one of the best months for equities in a long time
Netflix doesn't have an ETF, except for a 3x levered ETF on the Mexico exchange. Insignificant except for it fell from 5 pesos to 5 pennies.
What's sad is even if it Netflix was to fall 50% in value the thing would still only be worth like 30 cents. % base levered ETFs will kill you.
So, here's the call.
Netflix printed a proper daily pivot in mid June (you'll have to look yourself because I can't zoom the chart in for the post) and has been flirting inside that range ever since.
If she makes a new high I suppose then it's time for more uppy and you can buy calls at the top and feel pretty good.
But if she breaks the $420 range the next area to watch is the June low, which Netflix printed on a green candle and on the first day of the month at $393
After that, things might happen and happen fast.
If bearish momentum and level breaking manifests, then where I believe it will return to is the $180 to $160 range.
For Netflix to have a chance to return above $500, it will have to hold the $162.71 bottom.
If you can catch that falling knife you'll feel pretty smart if you can hold the bag for a few months.
But if you try to go long before the bottom you'll cut your hands and cut your hands some more.
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say.
Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped.
That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news.
And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high.
The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing.
Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end.
And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation.
The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight.
In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest.
The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year.
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity.
What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend.
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high.
This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665.
I discuss this collar below:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this:
The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients.
Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity.
The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid.
Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400.
Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one.
For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge.
So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660.
And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day.
During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs.
I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher.
However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August.
But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely.
Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping.
This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3.
So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
MSFT: Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish DivergenceMicrosoft has traded up to a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension and has formed a Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish Divergence, so long as $350 holds as resistance, I think it could go as low as about $295 to fill the gap below.
In the meantime, I have sold $350 multi-week calls.
MICROSOFT Huge MACD Bearish Cross ahead of earnings. Still buy?Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 13 Low, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting all the way, having made no contact with the price at all. You can see that on the chart on the right (1D time-frame).
On the bigger picture, the 1W time-frame (chart on the left), the stock closed last week's 1W candle on a very discouraging Bearish Pin Bar, which is a candle formed on technical trend reversals from bullish to bearish. In addition the 1W RSI remains overbought above 70.00, despite dropping from the even higher levels of May 30.
Perhaps the strongest alarming indicator at the moment showing that the market may have hit a temporary top is the emerging Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD. Since 2020, we have seen that formation another 7 times, with 6 of them delivering a Lower Low. As a result when the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is completed, it will be more probable to see a correction, not necessarily an earth shuttering one.
But back to the 1D time-frame (chart on the right) if that happens, we will wait for a candle close below the 1D MA50 and sell, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on a projected contact at $300. Until this happens though, the Channel Up is on full effect and we are targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at $380.
In the meantime, observe the 1D RSI, which is trading inside a Rectangle for the past 6 months and has offered accurate buy signals at its bottom and sell signals at its top.
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$MSFT #Microsoft Earning PlayNASDAQ:MSFT #Microsoft Earning Play if you have been long NASDAQ:MSFT like we have it is prudent to take profits or if you are in the business of shorting stocks this is an excellent shorting opportunity. Know your target before you make the trade. There is a Double Top where you can stop out if it closes above the double top on a weekly basis.
MICROSOFT'S Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and....Microsoft's Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and Profitability
Investors are eagerly anticipating Microsoft's fiscal 2023 fourth-quarter results, set to be unveiled on July 25. The upcoming report holds significance as it is expected to include the company's outlook for fiscal year 2024, making it a crucial event for evaluating Microsoft's growth opportunities, profitability, and cash demand trends.
When considering Microsoft as an investment, three key factors set it apart from others.
Diverse Business:
Microsoft's strength lies in its diverse business offerings. Unlike companies that focus on specific industries or technologies, Microsoft provides exposure to various growth niches, including enterprise cloud services, AI, productivity software, and more. Owning Microsoft allows investors to capitalize on multiple expansion opportunities under one brand, thereby reducing the risks associated with heavy reliance on a single sector.
High Profitability:
Despite some fluctuations in financial metrics since the peak of the pandemic in 2021 and early 2022, Microsoft remains one of the most efficient generators of cash and profits in the market. In the last quarter, the company achieved an impressive 15% year-over-year increase in operating income, resulting in $22.4 billion in profit on $53 billion in sales. This high level of profitability reinforces Microsoft's position as a robust and stable investment option.
As the report is released, investors should focus on these essential growth indicators and look beyond short-term sales volatility to assess Microsoft's long-term potential. The company's diverse business and strong profitability make it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking stability and growth in their portfolio.
Pricey Stock:
In terms of valuation, Microsoft is considered a pricey stock, with investors having to pay a premium for its valuable assets. Presently, Microsoft stock is valued at over 12 times its annual sales, comparable to the faster-growing Palo Alto Networks. However, in comparison, Apple offers a relatively better bargain with a valuation of 8 times its sales, while Amazon is even cheaper at less than 3 times its sales.
While there is a possibility that Microsoft's valuation may decrease in the coming quarters, particularly if the company reports disappointing sales results in late July or forecasts challenges in the upcoming operational year, the more likely scenario is that the business will continue to gain market share in various significant global tech industries. Additionally, any cyclical downturn in its operating system segment or consumer tech devices division is expected to be short-lived.
Considering Microsoft's bright long-term outlook, industry-leading profit margins, ample cash flow, and rising dividend payments, it emerges as an incredibly attractive stock to consider adding to your portfolio. For tech stock investors who prefer a less risky approach in a fast-moving industry, Microsoft provides an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to major trends while investing in one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Microsoft Long Alltime High hit Earnings New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case).
Bullish:
higher highs higher lows
poc uprising
volume increasing
capital flow rising
In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend.
I will only take profit 10% of the microsoft portfolio and let the profit run.
Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal
The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run.
This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
MSFT Microsoft Options Ahead of Earnings ! Growth Thesis !If you haven`t bought MSFT when they Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT:
Or sold on their warning to investors:
Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 345usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $28.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
The investment by Microsoft in OpenAI signifies a significant boost to their artificial intelligence capabilities. OpenAI's advanced technologies and expertise in AI research and development could potentially enhance the capabilities of Microsoft's Bing search engine. With access to powerful AI algorithms and resources, Bing may be able to offer more personalized and accurate search results, thereby attracting users who seek a more refined search experience.
Microsoft has been making strategic moves to expand its presence in various sectors, including cloud computing and enterprise services. By integrating Bing into its ecosystem of products and services, Microsoft can leverage its existing user base and partnerships to promote Bing as a viable alternative to Google.
In recent years, Google has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and antitrust issues, which could create an opportunity for Bing to gain traction among users seeking more privacy-focused alternatives. Additionally, Microsoft has been actively investing in marketing and advertising efforts to raise awareness about Bing and improve its market positioning.
While Google currently holds a dominant position in the search engine market, the landscape is dynamic and subject to change. If Microsoft successfully leverages its partnership with OpenAI to enhance Bing's capabilities, coupled with strategic marketing initiatives, it could potentially chip away at Google's market share over time.
The implementation, by Microsoft, of a chatbot like ChatGPT, powered by OpenAI's advanced natural language processing capabilities, could indeed provide an opportunity for consumers to find the cheapest price online for the same product. In an era where price comparison and cost-saving measures are highly valued by customers, this feature could be a valuable asset for Bing.
Amazon's reputation for having expensive and overvalued prices has been a topic of discussion among consumers. While Amazon provides a wide range of products and convenient shopping experiences, some users have expressed concerns about the pricing competitiveness on the platform. This presents an opening for Bing to attract cost-conscious consumers who are actively seeking better deals.
The concern over the origin of products, particularly those manufactured in China, has gained attention in recent years. Some consumers prefer to avoid purchasing Chinese-made products due to quality, safety, or political reasons. If Bing can provide a search experience that allows users to filter or identify the origin of products more effectively, it could cater to a segment of consumers who prioritize alternative sourcing.
I think MSFT will be one of the winners of the AI race.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
MSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden sectionMSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Microsoft stock in the past two years. The graph overlays the low point at the end of October 2022 against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Microsoft's stock has reached another new high this week, breaking through the highest point at the end of 2021! But the weekly pattern of Microsoft stock this week is a long shadow line, with the highest point precisely suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section in the figure! Based on last week's weekly pattern, Microsoft's stock market is likely to enter a contraction triangle consolidation state in the future!
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'Over the last two quarters, financial social media has cared a lot about the "JPM Collar," a series of very large options trades that JP Morgan uses in one of the funds it offers its clients.
The theory for speculators is that the JPM collar will be used to constrict the market within a certain range. But as for how that plays out, it's hard for a trader to anticipate, especially amid the daily chop.
The levels are on the chart and you can reference them yourself. Below is a print of monthly bars, which is easier to see since I have to compress the TradingView chart to make the bars work:
If you're not familiar options, the general idea is this:
These options blocks expire September 29
JPM will lose a lot of money if price is over 4,665 or starts to approach 4,665, especially if it happens right away
JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 3,550, especially if it happens right away
JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 4,215, especially if it happens right away
But a nuance of being long 4,215 calls is that if price is significantly over 4,215 by September, they will make a lot of money on their calls.
Geopolitical Risks
Before we begin, I'll warn you, as I do in every post, that the geopolitical situation is tense. NATO is at war with the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine and the International Rules Based Order is always talking about "de-risking, but not decoupling" from Mainland China under President Xi Jinping.
The risk for markets is, short of a situation where a tectonic/geothermal event surprises everyone and causes the crash of crashes, is that Xi gets up one night and throws away the Chinese Communist Party.
Since Beijing business hours are New York night, you'll wake up to quite the gap down that will be hard to recover from, for the Chinese Communist Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its cronies are guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
The Call
The most most notable thing about price action is as June closed, range equilibrium between the June high and the October low is exactly 4,000.00 points.
Something else I stumbled upon when preparing for this post is that when comparing the Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX futures monthly bars, the three have completely converged.
This is the first time since the **2022 top** that this has happened.
You can see it on the weekly as well
There used to be quite the delta, which allowed for stock picking and trading. If you ask me, what three memelines coming together all at once means is that the markets reached peak overbought, and genuine "overbought" isn't something you can see with an indicator.
The daily shows this really only manifested in June.
There are some problems with more uppy, as I explain in my calls below on the VIX, which needs to go up so that whales can go back to collecting free money selling volatility:
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
(But note that under the current conditions being summer and we're not that bearish right now, we may only see VIX 50)
And the fact that the Nasdaq is just so far away from its trendline that going more parabolic is hard to believe.
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
I don't normally call exact areas, but I put a white box with a dolphin because I think price is going there, and will do so fast, like, mid-August fast.
That box means 3,778~.
This means JPM will be green on out of the money calls, red on its own calls, and red on the 3,550 puts.
But JPM doesn't lose money to begin with because they're hedged and will be compensating for the drawdown in other ways, like the alpha they'll generate from going big block long in the dumps under 4,000.
The other advantage is it will trap bears who think it's finally the apocalypse they've long been awaiting for the ponzi to go to zero, and they'll buy puts and buy puts even though the iVol is insane from VIX being over 50.
Once the craziness is done, the markets will recover, and whoever sold will probably by trapped.
So, be careful out there. Wall Street's best laid plans can be blown to pieces in an hour by Heaven, for men are no better than mice in this boundless Cosmos.
Nasdaq - The Great Bear TrapIn recent analysis on the state of the markets, I note that the notion that we're "in a bull market" is actually really dangerous, and how, if you really want to see healthy markets into the future, you don't want to see a new all time high print yet, because we're just too far over the trend:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
Moreover, Q2 just finished strong, and with a new quarter, comes a new deployment of the algorithms. The infamous "JPM Collar" is something I discussed in a recent post:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
Namely that I believe it forecasts a serious correction in the markets. But at the same time, it has until September to even start, really.
And it's dangerous to be long right now because the VIX is so low and we've been in a bullish impulse inside of bearish market conditions for so long, which I note below
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
You can see the first manifestation of this principle has begun in both the VIX, and the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF:
You might look at that and think "lol it gave all its gains back" but this is actually what you want to see if it's going to run a bit.
I also have open calls for Tesla, which are short term, albeit significantly, bearish.
Tesla - What To Expect Until September?
And an open call on Netflix where I actually believe it will retrace to the $170s during the next major correction.
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives
So where we're at with Nasdaq futures is that it made lower highs while the SPX made higher highs:
The divergence is noise for the short term, but if you ask me, it means that in the long term, if we see a dump, and then a bounce, that Nasdaq will actually take out the high while SPX will be a laggard.
What Friday's price action showed is that both SPX and Nasdaq have begun to dump. If you ask me, this is because before we can go higher, we must go lower.
Sells have to be matched with buys and buys have to be matched with sells, after all.
And at this point, we haven't seen any downside in the markets since March. It's too extreme.
Two important areas of note is we have the daily pivot around 14,800 and the gap around 14,500.
Both of these are places that I expect to see attempts at bounces that will not come to fruition. Because you need to give people a chance to buy the dip and then for them to get stopped out.
I believe that the reason things will dump, and they may dump violently, and fast, is to crank the VIX and have all the permabears finally see their "opportunity" emerge to get short for "the crash."
Only for markets to bounce through the end of August while everyone with money is at the sea side and VIX dies a slow death back to a 9-handle while volatility gets sold off for free money again.
By then, nobody will want to be short anymore. Everyone will have capitulated. Then the fireworks can start, and early bears will miss the move, much to their consternation.
So, I believe that Nasdaq and tech stocks give the opportunity to short through the next few weeks.
On Wednesday, we have CPI, which has not mattered in months, but may matter a lot now while the markets pretend to care about whether the Fed hikes rates again.
Then we have FOMC on July 25 and a Nasdaq 100 "rebalance" on the 24th.
A recovery through the end of July and all the way through the end of August is a very likely scenario.
Until then, I believe we will see violent and significant downside, and it finally gives an opportunity trade puts and bear ETFs until you see really significant bullish movement in price at key levels, and then look for longs.
But the next time it's time to go long, it's only a scalp.
After Q3, the remainder of 2023 and the early part of 2024 is likely to be quite dangerous.
There are more important things in life than making money. Make sure you take good care of yourselves and your family and friends.
Make sure you make up for your regrets as soon as possible, lest you find yourself with no further chances to set right what was set wrong.
FTC Appeals to Block Microsoft Activision MergerI am providing a crucial update regarding the recent news of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) decision to appeal against the proposed merger between Microsoft and Activision. This development has significant implications for the tech industry, particularly for those who have invested or are considering investing in Microsoft stock.
The FTC's decision to appeal the merger indicates that regulatory authorities are scrutinizing the potential consequences of this consolidation. While mergers and acquisitions can often lead to positive outcomes, such as improved products and services, it is essential to approach this situation cautiously, considering the potential risks and uncertainties ahead.
As tech traders, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the potential impact of this appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the appeal, coupled with potential delays or even the possibility of the merger being blocked, could significantly influence the company's stock value in the short to medium term.
Therefore, I strongly advise you to exercise prudence and consider holding off on buying Microsoft stock until further clarity emerges regarding the outcome of the FTC's appeal. By doing so, you can better protect your investment and mitigate potential risks associated with this merger.
It is important to understand this is not financial advice but rather an alert to the potential implications of the FTC's appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. As always, I encourage you to consult your financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
In conclusion, the FTC's decision to appeal the Microsoft-Activision merger has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market. By adopting a cautious approach and refraining from immediate stock purchases, you can better position yourself to make informed investment choices once more clarity on the situation emerges.
Nasdaq - Might come down to touch the demand areaNasdaq - Might come down to touch the demand area
It has a strong Weekly RBR demand zone, it will come down to touch the demand zone.
MICROSOFT Remains a buy as long as the 1day MA50 holds.Microsoft / MSFT turned sideways inside the 4 month Channel Up after it hit the 350 Resistance (and All Time High) and got rejected.
The price is now approaching the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA50.
The 1day MA50 has been supporting since January 26th.
As long as it holds, buy and target 360.
If the price closes a 1day candle under it, sell and target 315.
A closing under the 1day MA100, can initiate a bearish reversal.
Notice: the 1day RSI is holding its Rising Support, keeping the momentum bullish.
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When Will This A.I. Boom Bust?This video is about one of the stocks
inside this A.I. Boom
--
You will learn how to spot buying opportunity
so you can make money
--
watch the full story
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Regards,
Lubosi Stocks
MICROSOFT - KeyLevels for next weekIf you wanna take a trade on Microsoft, maybe before that, you need to conisder this KeyLevels of support and resistance areas.
Careful with longs until the 4h uptrend was broken.
