MICROSOFT has bottomed. Dont miss this once/year buy opportunityMicrosoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the October 2022 market bottom following the Inflation Crisis. Since the August 05 2024 Low on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the stock has struggled to get detached from it and stage a sustainable rally.
This prolonged volatility can be seen however on both previous Lows of the Channel Up, while the price was attempting to price a bottom. Technically it is around the same levels as February - March 2023 (again below the 1W MA50).
As you can see, this kind of buy opportunity emerges roughly once a year on MSFT and posts a rise or roughly +50% from the bottom, with the last Higher High priced on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, our long-term Target is now set at $550.
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Microsoftsignals
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023.
The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point.
Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High.
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MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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Microsoft Unveils New AI-Powered PCs with Qualcomm ChipsIn a strategic move to enhance AI integration and battery efficiency in Windows PCs, Microsoft unveiled a new lineup featuring Qualcomm's advanced AI-optimized processors. This announcement underscores Microsoft's commitment to propelling AI capabilities within its Windows ecosystem while maintaining optimal power usage.
Key Points:
Microsoft's new Surface devices and those from leading manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Lenovo will be equipped with Qualcomm's Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus processors, enabling efficient on-device AI processing for improved performance and privacy.
The integration of Microsoft's Copilot+ AI assistant offers features like audio translation, message response suggestions, and interactive content exploration.
T
his initiative signifies Microsoft's broader strategy to embed AI functionalities akin to ChatGPT across its products, potentially shaping the future of personal computing.
T
Industry analysts anticipate a significant rise in Arm-based Windows PC adoption due to the growing demand for local AI processing and extended battery life.
While Qualcomm's chips generate market excitement, Intel remains a major player with its own AI solutions. Real-world performance data will be crucial in determining the competitive landscape.
Overall, Microsoft's introduction of AI-powered PCs marks a pivotal step towards an AI-driven future for personal computing. The success of these devices will hinge on real-world performance and consumer adoption.
MICROSOFT on an excellent long-term buy level.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up since the January 06 2023 low and yesterday came to the closest 1D candle closing to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up since September 27 2023.
That was also the last Higher Low of the Channel Up, achieved exactly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Low. With the price now below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) but still above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it appears that we are on symmetrical levels with that Higher Low.
The 1D CCI patterns between the two fractals are also similar and long-term investors can start considering buying MSFT again. Our medium-term Target is $450.00.
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MICROSOFT How to trade as the Earnings approach?Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report the Earnings on Tuesday and last time we gave gave a pull-back buy signal (December 01 2023, see chart below) we caught the exact bottom:
Our original long-term Target was $460.00 but we have to downgrade it to $440.00. On the short-term it may be wise to take most or at least some of the profit if the 1D MA20 (red trend-line) as this has been a medium-term sell signal on July 26 2023. It's not just potentially lower than expected Earnings that may turn the trend bearish on the medium-term but also the Fed, which announce the Rate Decision on Wednesday.
As a result, if the price breaks below the 1D MA20, we will short and target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at $370.00 where we will add another long-term buy position. Notice that the 1D CCI indicator and the correlation with the 2023 price action, shows that both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.
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MICROSOFT The 1D MA50 will be the buy opportunity for Xmas.Microsoft (MSFT) is trading inside a Double Channel Up pattern, with the longer term one (blue) starting on the January 06 bottom while the shorter term one (dotted) starting on the September 14 High. The latter Channel Up can be seen with the same structure earlier within the long-term Channel Up as well. It started after the stock pulled back and hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which provided a strong rebound.
The same kind of 1D MA50 test took place on October 26, which initiated the current bullish leg (November). As the 1D RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) simiarl to March 17 - April 12 and the 1D MACD completing a Bearish Cross, we expect one final pull-back towards the 1D MA50. That can be the ideal buy entry for the end-of-the-year rally. Our long-term target is always $460, representing a +43.50% rise from the 1D MA50 bounce (similar to March 13).
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MICROSOFT Final chance to buy for $380.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1D logarithmic time-frame since December. At the moment, it is on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which was previously the short-term Resistance. We are also near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, an important benchmark for this recovery attempt. Practically this is the new bullish leg following the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up on August 18.
The 1D RSI got rejected on the Symmetrical Resistance of the January 27 High and even since the Support Zone, the pattern seems to be on a perfect symmetry. It appears that we are on the respective 1D MA50 pull-back as on January 30. That bullish wave targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before the next 1D MA50 pull-back.
As a result we are bullish, targeting the new 1.236 Fibonacci level at $380.00.
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MICROSOFT Huge MACD Bearish Cross ahead of earnings. Still buy?Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 13 Low, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting all the way, having made no contact with the price at all. You can see that on the chart on the right (1D time-frame).
On the bigger picture, the 1W time-frame (chart on the left), the stock closed last week's 1W candle on a very discouraging Bearish Pin Bar, which is a candle formed on technical trend reversals from bullish to bearish. In addition the 1W RSI remains overbought above 70.00, despite dropping from the even higher levels of May 30.
Perhaps the strongest alarming indicator at the moment showing that the market may have hit a temporary top is the emerging Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD. Since 2020, we have seen that formation another 7 times, with 6 of them delivering a Lower Low. As a result when the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is completed, it will be more probable to see a correction, not necessarily an earth shuttering one.
But back to the 1D time-frame (chart on the right) if that happens, we will wait for a candle close below the 1D MA50 and sell, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on a projected contact at $300. Until this happens though, the Channel Up is on full effect and we are targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at $380.
In the meantime, observe the 1D RSI, which is trading inside a Rectangle for the past 6 months and has offered accurate buy signals at its bottom and sell signals at its top.
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MICROSOFT Cup and Handle targeting $320.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 04 Bottom. Supported by an Inner Higher Lows trend-line, we can even see a Rising Wedge forming. Now however, it will face the most important Resistance of this uptrend, the 294.50 of the August 15 High (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci).
If rejected, we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern materializing, which can pull the price back down to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We remain bullish on MSFT but based on our long-term strategy for stocks, we will welcome such pull-back and buy it. Our next target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci at $320.
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Microsoft: You can do it 💻Despite the recent outage, Microsoft is fighting its way back to the top and should exceed the resistance line at $265.00 soon to continue its upwards slope. Our alternative scenario with a probability of 40% implies that the stock could tire and drop below the support line at $212.25, instead of rising to the top. In this case, the course would sink into the grey target zone to fulfill the superior grey wave alt. IV before heading back North in the longterm.
MICROSOFT Targeting $285 short-termMicrosoft (MSFT) is about to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 3rd time since June 27. A new break should be a confirmation of that being the new Lower High rebound. The previous targeted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this is now over the Channel Down a little above 285.00.
We believe this might be the start to an even bigger and more sustainable rise as certain long-term indicators have been aligned on Support levels:
* First, the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows.
* Second, the 1W MACD inevitably will form a Bullish Cross, the first since October 27 2021.
* Third, the 1M MA30 (yellow trend-line) supported the previous Low, right on the Higher Lows trend-line that started back in September 18 2020.
As mentioned the 285.00 is just below the 0.618 Fib, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) might be by the time it tests it, for the ultimate Resistance test.
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MICROSOFT LONGHi there,
As you can see it is following the channel well. Back in 2020 it dropped then over the next 6 months, it went up 50% more than the previous peak. Since it is at the lower end of the channel and the BULLISH uptrend since 2007, we can expect MICROSOFT to bounce back.
HOWEVER, we shall WAIT for the CLOSURE of the candle when MARKET opens and we SHALL wait further to let it BREATH then enter the trade and let it ROLL for a nice LONG SWING.
Kind regards
Microsoft Analysis 26.01.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
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Microsoft Analysis 13.01.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
Microsoft Analysis 20.12.2021Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
MICROSOFT Would you consider $185 "a healthy pull back"?Just curious to know your opinion on that as the post August High flag (Channel Down) looks extremely similar to Microsoft's September - December 2019 sequence. The RSI is similar too. Since then it has touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) one more time, last March (COVID sell-off).
So would you consider this a healthy pull-back or should it ring a few alarms?
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