Microtrends
Dual trend exploitationI've not seen this sort of stuff before on Tradingview, so I do apologise if everybody knows about it.
I show how I used both a microtrend change on a 15 min time frame and a macrotrend position to get a suitable entry position on Japan225. Note carefully, that this is not a 'win'. I totally expect to lose but if that happens the loss will be minimal. If however the trend moves in my favour, I shall simply follow it without need of a target or predefined get-out point. In this way I do not need to 'predict' anything.
Micro & Macro :AUDNZD foreshadows ultimate trend reversal Looking back @ Macro Levels:-
Assies remained on a rollercoaster ride against its kiwi counterpart since 2011. Following later pair remained sideways since 2014 (consolidation phase), although in a fair enough trading range of a 1000 pips between 1.1300 - 1.0275.
Fast Forward :-
Recently, since Nov 2016 (as trump-nomics starts) pair was in triangle/wedge structure. Feb 9,2017 close above 1.0554 has confirmed the triangle break-out. Both Micro and Macro technicals foreshadow a trend reversal cementing the fundamentals, where RBA was less dovish relatively to other central banks while RBNZ on Feb 9 2017 gave clear signal of dovishness, stating that interest rates may remain low for a longer period than market's expectations.
Our favorite Inverse H&S for bullish reversal is on cards producing the neckline at 1.0770 area and on Macro level 1.01382 area, Although Macro levels are bit early to anticipate . Our analysis is backed by Deutsche bank's yesterday's remarks that " Aussie may put gains against $US up to .8100 or beyond "
We are super excited to trade this pair keeping bullish baise once a valid trading setup develops.
Keep following for trade setups...
Thanks and Trade with Care..... :)
ES Long based on 100% Range reversal - bounces at -f76%ES Long based on 100% Range reversal - short covering rally
ES was short at the open you can see the red indicator plot on the chart telling you to go short...
Price first tested above then below - The fig grid shows this as the price nudged f23% then later hit f76%
making a total of almost 100% of the daily expected range as detailed by the range grid at the bottom of the chart.
This long could reverse into bear flag like formation possibly and retest the lows...
So the trade here is a bit late like me - making the commentary...!
But it is a simple demonstration of how to use this system to trade with... see the related link for another
In this case the reversal the -F76% level was the place to take the trade - or exit the short...
Based on the time of day of the bounce and the longer term view or alteast the current top of market structure holding -not collapsing - this was i felt an easy long.
The target would be the F0% - or more...
These indicators are available in Charts > Indicators > Market Place AddOns > MicroTrends
more details of the indicators can be found here: www.indicatorfactory.com
EURJPY Long - breakout above sundays range- weekly supportLong at the open breakout - but possible expect retest of weekly open and looking to travel towards the 140 areas...is what i expect.. but no guarantees. Here is my attempt of how i arrived at this expectation.
Based on the higher time frame analysis of a weekly chart you will see horizontal support - last week low at 137.50 and a close back above at around 137.80 above the support line.
So based on the fact we have a clear higher time frame support zone at around 137.50 upwards to 138 - the indicators in the post are showing a way to enter a trade based on an intraday chart using the higher time frame price analysis as and influence/confluence in entering the trade. It might also have been a breakdown of support...short... but in this instance we are long... possibly by the time i actually finish this post we will have retraced back to the open... but at the time of writing initially we are long and the market was reaching a resistance based on statistical ranges...
Looking at the indicators - available for lease from the chart > indicators > market add-ons > MicroTrends.
The Green arrow up gets us in the trade. So from here intraday you might chose to take profits or you might let it roll all week. Perhaps 140 would be a more than perfect trade for a weekly trade considering the average weekly range... if you study the weekly chart.
For this chart we can use some indicators that work like a map of the market. The Range Grid sitting at the bottom shows us that for the time period in question the market has reached around 110% of its expected range.
The black line in the middle is 100% of the market range. The blue lines above and below are 75% and 125% - the market will reach the100% levels around 25% of the time - A stat i based on the last 80 sessions...
So it's fair to expect a possible stall/sideways market or reversal at that point in time... The thing is though as you know the market does not always go long at the open and stay that way until it gets to 100% of its typical range and stop on a up day.... and sometimes it will bust fat tail way out of that to 200/ 400% - and reach another price zone...
More likely it will dip above or below the open and then wind up at some high or low for the current session - the Range Grid will tell you when its hit 100% of its daily range expansion - regardless of where the open was...
in the session in question price dipped at the open bar Sunday - then went long.. finally catching volume and push at around 2.00 am to 3.00am but we were in the trade at around 00:00... with our stop below the open - say 20 to 30 ticks... looking for a 100tick+ move of around 1:4 RR...
It might be the market opens hits 25% of the range above then makes lows and ends up at 75% - that would mean
we need the Fib Grid to show us where the market is... So on the right hand side of the chart you can see the fib levels from the Fib Grid - today you can see we stopped just short of f100% - and a lower high - doji like red bar - we then closed back below the F76% - which you could easily take as the exit... but you might want to scale out.. remember we are trying to nail that weekly bar...
The range grid shows us that we are at above 100% - due to the dip below the open - then the range expansion above...
So we have
An Entry System
Technical Price Targets
Exit System
A complete trading system with just 3 indicators...
We also have other nuances such as market cycles small to large range days.. and we have price analysis of higher time frame charts- such as weekly support zones in this case...
We also have statistical ranges and high energy times to make this tradable on instruments - it's not based on some trend or exotic mystery this is solid maths and a simple analysis of how markets behave and how trade systematically with it...
