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Midbollinger

BTC-WARNING...BELOW THE DAILY CLOUDS !Yesterday's price action triggered a NEW LONG BLACK CANDLE which closed below the daily clouds @ 39'175 (intraday low @ 38'590) Currently below both the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40460 RSI below 50, @ 44.82 LAGGING LINE testing the KIJUN-SEN ! And last but not least, yesterday's closing was also below the former downtrend resistance (red line !) Today's price action will be very important and will validate or invalidate 2 important things : 1) THE CLOUDS SUPPORT BREAKOUT 2) THE FORMER DOWNTREND RESISTANCE LINE WHICH BECAME THE NEW SUPPORT (PULLBACK) A DAILY CLOSING BELOW 38'500 would confirm further downside towards, firstly the former daily congestion zone around the 37'000-36'700 area ahead of the former lows 34'324-32'950. On the upside, a first breakout of the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk and then should be confirmed by the top daily clouds @ 42'524 (this latter level has already been mentioned yesterday) 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below : 1) The ongoing downtrend line 2) The Mid Bollinger Band 3) The Kijun-Sen 4) The Tenkan-Sen 5) THE CLOUDS LAGGING LINE TESTING THE CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA AND ATTEMPTING TO CROSS UNDER ! RSI far below 50, @ 28.42 (No bullish divergence yet in this H4 time frame), still converging to the downside Watch the clouds area (39'290-40'635) as a good indicator for upcoming trading hours as an upside breakout of the TOP OF THE CLOUDS (also the KS) would reopen the door for a potential upside towards the cluster of Kijun-Sen (41'961) & Mid Bollinger Band (42'201). As usual, watch shorter intraday time frames to get glues and early signal (such as RSI bullish divergence) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. Finally, do not forget to put in place a strict and disciplined RISK MANAGEMENT when you act TACTICALLY in STRATEGICALLY COUNTERTREND (RISK REWARD RATIO depending on your time frame trading action !) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - WATCH THE CLUSTER...H4 : Last candle closing @ 44'636 is the first warning signal which triggered, as expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday, a "shy" pullback, which should be watch at very carefully and which will be crucial for further development. Indeed, a failure to recover above the ongoing support trend line (green line) and watch also RSI which broke down as well, will confirm further downside in the cards, calling probably for a retest of former lows (44'125 ahead of 42'900) where situation should be reassessed ! (double bottom ?) On the upside, a recovery above the support trend line, would temporary neutralise the downside risk but as long as BTC stay below the H4 cluster (currently 45'508-45772), the selling pressure will remain. The MBB worked, once again, very well, breakouts attempts but...not confirmed ! A breakout of the cluster resistance area would then put the focus on the next key pivot resistance area...which is once again the H4 clouds zone (46'900-48'000). Watch shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the two scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice day & week. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - INTRADAY HIGH @ 55855, BUT...D1 : Another long white bullish candle has been triggered yesterday; today's ongoing price action is showing, for the time being another kind of picture. Indeed, after having, on one hand filled the Fibonacci retracement extension (78.6% @ 55072) and even pushing higher to an intraday high of 55855, BTC has been rejected by the former primary uptrend support trend line, which became a resistance. As a result, BTC reversed and is currently traded in the middle of the new uptrend channel in an ongoing bearish price action. Nevertheless, as we are on D1 observation, we need to wait the level today's closing to get confirmation of the upcoming development. SCENARIO A : BEARISH A daily closing below 53678 would trigger a dark cloud cover pattern which would already be the first signal of a trend reversal and a closing below the opening of yesterday's session @ 52427 would trigger a bearish engulfing pattern. A failure to hold above the former pivot level of 51530 would put the focus on the first significant support area, which is the cluster of the three following : Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band, being respectively @ 51074, 50687 and 50666. SCENARIO B : BULLISH A daily closing above yesterday's closing would be supportive for further upside having in mind a retest of the top zone of February (58000-58350)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848