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Midbollingerband

BTC - H1 - CLOUDS WORKED PERFECTLY WELL FROM 50000...H1 : Once again, clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting several successives downside breakout attempts. Interesting to note that the last rejection seen has not been triggered by the clouds support but by Kijun-Sen (base line) and also by the middle line of the short term uptrend channel. Watch now Tenkan-Sen (60457) and Mid Bollinger Band (60868) as very short term resistances indicators levels as a failure to recover above those levels would put the focus on the bottom of the uptrend channel around 58000 which also coincides with the H1 clouds support area, which is as you can see on the chart not very thick for the time being, meaning very fragile !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - SHORT TERM REVERSAL ! YES OR NO ?H4 : As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis (W1) published early this morning, a corrective and healthy downside move took place and reached an intraday low, so far at 59350, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement @ 59194 ! Last H4 closing candle triggered a doji pattern which is showing some uncertainty about the upcoming hours. In addition, you can see that at current level, the BTC is again reenter in the uptrend channel. Therefore, I would suggest, to watch carefully, the following levels : BULLISH : Consider 61000-61100 as the first short term resistance area which, in order to neutralise the ongoing dowside risk; indeed, an upside breakout confirmed of this zone would be the first signal that the correction has been short lived and is over and would open the door for a retest of the previous high @ 61781. BEARISH : * S1 : 59194 (38.2% Fib ret) and also the top level of the broadening wedge pattern ! * S2 : 58931 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line) *** S3 : 58396 & 58342 (50% Fib ret - Mid Bollinger Band Interesting to note the former congestion zone resistance (56500-57500) which is becoming now, a new support zone (57500-56500) ! Watch development on shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get early signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice afternoon. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - Upside breakout confirmation !D1 : The upside breakout confirmation has been given by the second daily closing above both Mid Bollinger Band (leading indicator !) and Kijun-Sen (Base line). In addition the clear breakout of the downtrend channel gave also additionnal support for further upside calling now for the 55000 area as the first significant target (55072 being the 78.6% Fib ret of the 58354-43021 downside move) ahead of a retest of former high @ 58354 (which is also, roughly the technical target of the triangle pattern, see H4 comments below As we are now in a bullish mode, former resistance cluster (KS and MBB around 50500 becomes the new support area to look at and as long as we stay above this zone and the 50000 psychological level, any downside move should be seen as a consolidation & corrective move in a new bullish trend . Usually after a breakout we should see a pullback towards the breakout area and which should be used, if seen as a good opportunity to get in in putting tight stop loss below 50000 H4 : The scenario A (BULLISH) won the battle ! Indeed, recent price action is showing a clear triangle upside breakout targeting 58058 ! Nevertheless, even if the indicators are pointing to the North, it is likely to see some consolidation which should, as mentioned above in D1, be seen as a corrective move only and used as a better opportunity to get in. See development on H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - TENKAN-SEN UNDER ATTACK !H4 : After the strong triangle breakout and as expected BTC lost momentum and last candle triggered a bearish engulfing pattern. For the time being, the first support (Tenkan-Sen) hold; nevertheless, technical indicators are switching from the sideways to the downside which may be the first signal (s) of a short term trend reversal. A failure to hold above TS @ 53554 would put the focus on MBB @ 51992 (roughly the level of the triangle breakout, such kind of correction would complete the expected pullback and if occurs, it should be seen as the REAL TEST of a successful upside breakout. Indeed, it is crucial, in order, to maintain the bullish tone, to stay and hold above 51500 (Kijun-Sen) as a failure to do it would invalidate the triangle pattern and reopen the door for lower levels. Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice trading day. All the best Have fun and take care.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress. (trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation) A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal) Global Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS- 2 SCENARIOS !H4 : Within the broadening wedge formation a triangle formation is is progress ! Scenario A : Upside breakout would open the door for the 58000 area or retest of former high. A failure to hold above TS @ 50575 ahead of MBB @ 49554 would invalidate the upside potential breakout and put the focus on the following scenario. Do not rule out also a potential BULL TRAP with a double top pattern in H4 !!! Scenario B : A breakout of MBB support line would then put the focus on the clouds support zone and a failure to hold above the clouds would open the for door for lower levels towards the 42000 area Watch H1 where there is still a Head and Shoulder formation in progress to get clues about validation or invalidation of this triangle breakout
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ATTEMPT !H4 : Recent recovery from the bottom of the clouds which worked perfectly well as a support area, we can see now a breakout attempt of the top of the H4 clouds in progress ! Important to note that, not only the top of the clouds are under attack but also the Kijun-Sen (Base line). Therefore, closing level of the ongoing H4 price action will be important to watch at. Indeed, a breakout success of the clouds would be the first signal of a potential upside move continuation putting the focus on the second obstacle to go through, which is the current top (dotted line) of the ongoing downtrend channel. Such kind of price action would then open the door for the pivot trading zone ranging from the psychological 50000 level and the former high @ 52650. On the other side, an upside breakout failure, would then put the focus on the "CLUSTER" of 48600-48500 (Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) and once again the bottom of the clouds support zone ! Below watch the support pivot zone ranging from 46300 (previous lows and 43000 Feb 28th low) Watch H1 and M15 to get early signal (s).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - STILL UNDER THE MID BOLLINGER BAND !D1 : Still in a broad bearish channel and below the Mid Bollinger Band. Yesterday's price action triggered a doji ("hanging man" or "dragonfly", confirmation will be given on D1 closing) ! Globally, as long as BTC does not breakout the downdrend channel first and does not move and hold above MBB and Kijun-Sen (Base line), price action seen over the last couple of sessions remains a corrective move in a bear trend. As told several times, ONLY a CLEAR breakout confirmation of the "CLUSTER" three levels above mentioned, would force to a view reassessment of the current scenario which potentially may change from bearish to bullish. On the downside, watch Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 47836, as the first significant support. In the meantime watch shorter time frames to get intermediate clues for ongoing price action Have a nice Sunday and have fun. All the best and take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD- H1/M15 - BOTH TIME FRAMES IN A DOWNTREND CHANNEL...H1 : Currently within the clouds in a downtrend channel. Watch carefully clouds area, either top and bottom of the clouds. Indeed, a breakout of one of those levels would give the tone for the next move. M15 : Roughly the same picture than in H1; nevertheless, a bullish divergence took place (potential bullish engulfing in progress), which is likely to trigger some technical rebound. Watch development in checking first, top of the clouds and then top of the downtrend channel which will be the first levels to be broken for confirmation of a very short term trend reversal
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 : CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...H4 : Currently in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen ! As mentioned earlier in my D1 analysis, the H4 clouds support zone, so far, worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakout attempts... Current price action is showing a sideways move between Tenkan-Sen level on the downside and MBB & Kijun-Sen on the upside. Therefore, on short term, those area should be watch at very carefully as a breakout of one of those area will show the direction for the upcoming trading period. The clouds should also be considered as a good indicator as we should see soon or later either an upside or a downside breakout. For the time being, recent and current price action is likely to trigger a downside breakout of the clouds. In order to monitor intermediate price action in waiting the next H4 closing, watch carefully H1 and M15 to get early signal of change in the expected bearish scenario. Have a nice weekend, have fun, all the best and take care Hope my analysis bring you some added value in your trading decision and if you like it, many thanks to give me a like and also add me in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - STILL IN A BROAD BEARISH CHANNEL !D1 : Global picture in this time frame is still showing a broad bearish channel. LEADING INDICATOR REMAINING THE MID BOLLINGER BAND ! Indeed, as confirmed, in this chart, the only closing above MBB, seen a couple of days ago, failed to be confirmed as the following candle triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN with a closing level, far away of MBB. Yesterday's price action posted a low of 46294 (coinciding roughly with the H4 clouds support zone which for the time being worked perfectly well in rejecting several successive breakout attempts (see my H4 analysis) View remains the same, broad ongoing bearish price action is still in place and in order to nedutralise such kind of move, we need to see on a Daily closing basis : 1) A recovery above and hold the Mid Bollinger Band @ 50119 2) A recovery and hold above the Kijun-Sen (Base Line) @ 50687 3) An upside breakout and hold above the current downtrend channel ONLY THOSE 3 CONDITIONS WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF THIS BEARISH SCENARIO AND UNTIL IT OCCURS RECENT AND CURRENT PRICE ACTION SHOULD ONLY BE SEEN AS A CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD BEAR TREND
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator. Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB; Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday low of 46294 early this morning. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it. It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance level to break ! In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important. H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel. Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt. Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips. In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames. Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing level slightly above MBB. Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000. Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s) H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame ! Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly lower, the clouds bottom zone Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow : UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650 DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000 Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000) Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance. On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area. M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear trend. Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break. A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - WATCH PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 50000 !D1 : Cluster remains around the psychological level of 50000. Indeed, this level coincides with both, the current level of the downtrend line resistance and with the Mid Bollinger Band.(49925) Therefore, a move and a D1 closing level above 50000 could change the current bearish mode to a bullish one. Wait today's closing for confirmation ! H4 : Failure to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band level triggered a strong recovery. Watch carefully price action on this time frame, BTC is currently trying to break the former downtrend line resistance in entering in a very strong resistance zone which is the clouds zone and which is VERY THICK, therefore should not be easy to break. Important to note that the former high (@ 50250) is close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level (@ 50620) which coincides with the top of the clouds. In case of a continuation upside move towards those levels, do not forget that a potential double top could take place with a trigger level roughly at the level of the Mid Bollinger Band support currently @ 47216 !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1H4 - CLUSTER 49900-50300 D1 & CLOUDS H4D1 : Very strong price action occurred yesterday by one of the longest white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING) seen so far (Opening 45262 / Closing 49629 + 4367 / + 9.64 %), similar to the one seen on Feb 19th (Opening 51560 / Closing 55989 + 4429 / + 8.59 %). Today's price action triggered an intraday high so far @ 50250 which is roughly the level of Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and which should also, as Mid Bollinger Band, be seen as very important level to break. Therefore this "cluster" (49900-50300) should be watch carefully on D1 basis for ongoing structural development. The key pivot level remains 51530 and a clear breakout of that level would clearly open the door for a retest of the highs above 58000. On the downside a failure to hold above Kijun-Sen @ 47486 would put the focus again on 45000-43000 H4 : After having broken respectively, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen, BTC is now facing a new obstacle to breakout which is : THE CLOUDS ! Indeed, as mentioned yesterday in this dynamic recovery it reached first the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48878 and then nearly filled in the 50 % Fib ret @ 50687 with an intraday high, so far @ 50250. OUTLOOK : UPSIDE, the clouds are clearly the zone to break and which is the case would put the focus on the D1 key pivot level @ 51530 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 52496 DOWNSIDE, the "cluster" (TS, MBB, KS) respectively @ 47213, 46777 and 46635 should be seen as the first significant area. Have a nice trading day and if you like my analysis do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - DOWNTREND CHANNEL INTACTH4 : Last candle triggered also a Doji pattern which is showing somme uncertainty and indecision in making a pause in this ongoing bearish price action. As a result, we can see now a new recovery attempt which will face a first resistance -@ 46074 (TS) ahead of MBB (47213) which is also currently the top of the downtrend channel. Therefore, for the time being, we can continue to consider current price action as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend. Watch channel breakout (s) for clues and monitor closely H1, M15 and M4 for intermediate validation or invalidations signal (s)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
7
BTC/USD - D1 - YESTERDAY'S CLOSING TRIGGERED A DOJI PATTERN !D1 : In a broad bear trend downtrend channel, yesterday's price action triggered a "doji", which close just above the important support level of Kijun-Sen. Today's ongoing price action, broke KS and former low of 44151 in reaching a new intraday low @ 43782 ! Indicators are still pointing to the South. In addition, current price action is showing that BTC is traded below the middle of the donwtrend channel. Next important support to look at is @ 43577 (50% Fib ret) and a breakout of that level would put directly the focus on the 42000 area (former high of Jan 8th) ahead of the psychological level of 40'000 (40089 being the 61.8% Fib ret) Last but not least the 43500-40000 is very fragile (long white bullish candle of Feb 8th, thanks to Elon !) and therefore should be quickly broken... In order to neutralise the current downside risk in this bearish price action, BTC should recover at least above KS, currently @ 46868. Watch and monitor carefully H4, H1, M15 and M5 for intermediate validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - H1/M15 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY IN A H4/D1 BEAR TREND !H1 : Current price action is showing a sideways-slightly up channel within a broad bear trend in H4 and D1. Kijun-Sen rejected a breakout attempt and is likely to trigger some rebound again. No change in my view, watch the clouds and the Fibonacci retracement, respectively the 50% @ 48115 (also the top of the clouds !) and the 61.8% @ 49050. A confirmed breakout of those levels would neutralise the current ongoing bearish price action. M15 : Sideways-slightly up channel formation. Watch carefully breakout of the channel either on the upside or on the downside which will show the next price action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - STILL BELOW BOTH KIJUN-SEN AND MID BOLLINGER BAND !H4 : Currently in a sideways-slightly up trading channel.. but still below both KS and MBB ! As mentioned in my previous analysis (see D1), recent and current price action should still be seen as CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet ! First significant support remains Tenkan-Sen ahead of the bottom line of the channel. Below focus will be on yesterday's low @ 44151 and 50 % Fib ret @ 43577. Note that the 61.8 % Fib ret is @ 40089 which should be seen a strategic technical target ! As usual watch and monitor carefully price action seen on shorter time frames (H1 to M5)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC D1 - KIJUN SEN HOLD !D1 : After having broke in an intraday basis the Kijun-Sen and reached a low of 44151, BTC recovered nicely, to close @ 46315, above KS. Global picture remains heavy. Indeed, despite the rebound seen recently, BTC is still below Mid Bollinger Band which remains a very good "barometer" indicator as you can see in the past. Therefore, I still consider current price action as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY... and not as a trend reversal yet. Only a move above Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 49644 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario with a confirmation on a breakout of KS (51253) and pivot resistance level @ 51530. Watch H4 and shorter time frames to detect intermediates validation or invalidation signals. Have a great weekend. All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1/H4 - BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ON D1 - MEGAPHONE ON H4D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered a Bearish Engulfing pattern with the first time a closing level below both Mid Bollinger Band and strategic uptrend support line ! Levels to watch now are the following : Upside : R1 : 49260 (MBB) R2 : 50000 (former strategic uptrend & psychological level) R3 : 51530 % 51600 (Pivot level and Tenkan-Sen) Downside : S1 : 46000 (today's intraday low) S2 : 45343 (Kijun-Sen) S3 : 44845 (former double bottom) A failure to hold above 44845 would put the focus on 43577 (50 % Fib ret) ahead of 40089 (61.8% Fib ret) H4 : A "Megaphone" pattern is in progress ! Such kind of formation may either breakout on the upside or on the downside Interesting to note that the lines of the "Megaphone" coincides roughly with the R and S levels above mentioned for D1 As usual, watch carefully price action on shorter time frames, for validation or invalidation. Have a great trading day. All the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5