Mid/Smallcap || Recovery As Expected, What now? The Midcap and Small Cap Index have shown signs of recovery as anticipated in my previous analysis. The index is now trading above the 20 EMA Band in the 2-hour timeframe (TF). However, several key conditions must still be met before we can confirm a sustained bull run:
1. 2-hour RSI should cross above 75 to signal strong upward momentum.
2. Daily timeframe (DTF) RSI needs to exit the Bear Zone.
3. NIFTY50 is still awaiting confirmation to move out of the Bear Zone, which would provide broader market support.
Midcapstocks
Mid/Smallcap || Nearing Key Reversal Zone?Many traders focus on midcap and small-cap stocks, so this index movements can significantly impact portfolios. However, stock selection is crucial; choosing stocks in a downtrend or sideways movement often limits potential upside.
Index Analysis:
1. RSI for Midcap and Smallcap Index in the daily timeframe (DTF) is close to oversold zone
2. 2hrsTF RSI is already in ovsersold zone, however there’s an RSI positive divergence in the 2-hour chart, a bullish indicator,
3. the index sits within a support zone, suggesting a possible reversal.
Market Outlook:
Limited Downside Expected: Significant further declines in midcap and small-cap may not be likely. Even if they dip, a recovery within the same 2-hour candle is possible.
Key Resistance:
A confirmed bull run may require the RSI to break above 75.
Disclaimer: This is based on my analysis and experience. It’s not investment advice, and market conditions may vary.
Hope for the Best
MIDCAP NIFTY Rallies Strong! Long Trade Hits All TargetsMidcap Nifty has shown a solid uptrend following the entry at 12921.15 on 11th October at 12:15 PM, with the price successfully reaching all profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 12921.15 – The long trade was initiated at this level, supported by bullish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 12891.70 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 12957.60 – The first target was achieved, confirming the upward move.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 13016.55 – Bullish pressure continued, leading to this level being reached.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 13075.50 – Further gains pushed the price to this target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 13111.90 – The final target, marking a successful rally in the long trade.
Trend Analysis
The price has consistently remained above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sustained upward movement suggests that market sentiment remains positive, supporting further gains beyond the final target.
The long trade on Midcap Nifty successfully hit all profit targets, with the final TP4 at 13111.90. The uptrend was well-supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, showcasing strong buying interest throughout the move.
Planned Positional Long Trade in DALBHARAT
In the picture above we have drawn Trendlines to understand the direction of the Price. We see that Price has come down violating the Demand areas and respecting the Supply areas forming Lower Lows, hence was in a clear downtrend
Now most of the times before changing the trend price goes sideways
Here we see Price clearly going sideways. So we know there will be a change in Trend from Down to Sideways to UP Let's see how
An Uptrend has a Source from where the Trend starts and there is a point which we have called as a Destination of the Trend where it is trying to reach. So we have the Start point and End point of this upcoming Buy Trend.
Let's Understand the Demand and Supply Curve wrt to Price here
This tells us where is low, middle and high, course as traders we gotta buy low and sell high and avoid the middle area. This clearly tells us where is low and where is high.
After reacting to the Weekly Source Demand, in the Daily chart we see that Price has formed a Daily Demand which has violated its previous High which confirms Buying Momentum.
Now we have two possibilities for outcome of this Trade either it will take the SL or it will take the Target.
As a Trader we have to ensure our Reward to Risk ratio is favourable enough making the Risk practically worth taking.
Trade Type : Position Swing Trade
Entry : 1861.35
SL : 1794.25
Target : 2220.35
Reward : 359
Risk : 67.10
Ratio : 5.35/1
POTENTIAL INVESTMENT TARDE FOR VODAFONE IDEA
Here we look at the Quarterly chart since 2008, We see price was rallying up violating Resistances and respecting the Support areas, until it starts doing the opposite.
Now recently Price has violated a Supply area which indicates that the Buyers have just won over the sellers and now Price has given a Pullback in a 6 Months Demand.
Now we have a 6 Months Demand; So understanding the timeframe role into this Trade as the Demand in which we buy this a 6 months Demand hence we will have to consider a minimum of 1 to 2 years considering at least 2 to 4 candles of 6 months each to achieve the Target.
Here we have the following to consider before entering the Trade
Trade Type : Investment Trade
Entry : 10.10
SL : 5.70
TGT : 39.74
Risk : Rs. 4.4
Reward : Rs. 29.64
Ratio for Reward to Risk : 6.7/1
Island Gap Potential, Dark Pool Buy Zone, HFTsThis stock has the potential to form an island gap, which are caused by High Frequency Trading activity that triggers on news. The gap down was too huge, so fundamentals are above the current price. This would be a gap UP potential at this point, to create the island gap.
The lows have been established clearly, so selling short this stock is not wise. But smaller funds and retail may try, as they tend to sell short stocks within a Dark Pool buy zone. Chaikin Osc and Money Flow Index are moving upward but the angle of ascent on price is steeper. The faster price ascent could be rapid accumulation from derivative developers.
UIPath creates software for Robotic Process Automation. It was one of the stocks discussed in the Case Study I did with my students in the summer of 2022 on the disruptive new technologies to watch over the next decade.
medium term trading opportunity in samvardhna mothersonHi,
NSE:MOTHERSON has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume.
MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames.
In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue.
Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose.
Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates.
Please share your feedback or any queries on the study.
Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision
MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024.
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999.
As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42.
I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV.
DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY.
The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999.
What's happened with market at these times?
⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down.
⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down.
⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps.
Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
Small 'n Furious. Early 2020's Signaling A Big Midcap Run AheadThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is about 2% compared to a 7% gain in the S&P 500.
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999, which was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for small caps.
As of January 31, 2024 small caps price-to-book ratio is 2.01, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet.
Like a sensationally increased shares of Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI or e.l.f. Beauty Inc NYSE:ELF , I believe many other small cap stocks can be the best ideas for 2024, in part because of that participation in the ongoing stock market rally is improving and is no longer concentrated in just ultra-mega-cap tech stocks, like it was in 2023.
If so-called breadth improves in the stock market, then small cap stocks will catch a bid.
There are three factors will help to boost small-cap stocks in 2024.
First, fund flows into the stock market are necessary for small cap stocks to outperform. If retail funds aren't flowing into the stock market, then funds likely aren't flowing into small cap stocks.
That have changed already in late 2023 as investors start to warm up the stock market.
To be clear, let's take a look at lower technical graph, so-called "AUM", or AMEX:IWM assets under management chart, that is one of the most important ETFs metrics. While it's been correlated pretty well with IWM price action over the past two years, last December has changed the rule, as managed assets smartly jumped to almost historical highs.
Second, small cap stocks are highly levered and tend to have a higher cost of capital, so a decline or no more hikes in interest rates should benefit small cap stocks much more than large cap stocks.
To be clear, let's compare two graphs: for actual U.S. Interest Rate and Expected on Dec, 2024 Interest Rate.
Finally, an expansion in economic growth could be a "huge tailwind" for small cap stocks as they are highly exposed to the domestic economy.
An overlooked area of the stock market is set to soar in 2024 after significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year.
In technical terms, AMEX:IWM graph is near to break its 52- and 104-weeks highs, to deliver the price 50 percent higher after a breakthrough, like it did it before, on the hottest ever edge of 2020 and 2021.
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX).
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news.
👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined.
The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year.
👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record.
The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial.
What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?!
👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index.
👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components).
👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024)
Price/Book: 2.10
Dividend Yield: 1.44
P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90
EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14
Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921
Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects
In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
How to Trade BLS InternationalBLS Intl, now at 343 on March-14-2024 :
2 ongoing patterns can be seen
#1. Per EW, the major Motive wave is completed and retracement is done closer to 0.382 and rising again, So, invest few now, invest until 256 for target of 604.5 in 1-1.5 yr holding period
#2. Per another ongoing pattern ( highlighted zone ), One can invest until 300 for a target of 604
As strict stoploss of 255
Expected Gains from curent price --> 76.2%
Prefer to invest regularly in this
GATI long 160 add 150sl need to be close below 143
despite break high with above average volumes it kept retracing back . maybe third times the charm
motherson looks like bullish " NSE:MOTHERSON Motherson is currently showing a robust support level at ₹ 95. If the stock manages to break above this trendline-level within a short period, it could potentially experience a significant upward momentum, with a possible target around ₹ 103."
This statement emphasizes the current support level at ₹ 95 and the potential price target at ₹ 103 if the stock breaks above it. Remember that investing in stocks involves risk, and it's important to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NAVINFLUOR-WEEKLY SUPPORT-RETESTNSE:NAVINFLUOR
Stock has given breakout from 4450 level on April 1st week.
Currently stock is trying to take support on the same level.
It’s good entry with small SL, Target as per your Risk.
Please note that I’m already long in it from 4485 levels.
This is only for educational purpose, please manage your risk accordingly.
JSW ENERGY- Daily Timeframe-Bullish patternNSE:JSWENERGY
From March-2023 Stock is taking rejection from bottom trendline and on the upper side sellers are trying to sell it around 275-277 levels (resistance zone).
However, the swing lows are shifting up side (Higher lows) which is a sign of strength, sellers are not able to drag it below previous swing.
Currently it has taken support on the trendline 5th time and it’s near its rejection zone.
Stock has good potential to go upside in upcoming weeks.
This is only for educational purpose, please manage your risk accordingly.
MGL-LONG DAILY TIMEFRAME NSE:MGL
Stock is consolidating in Descending triangle pattern from past few days.
It is taking support on previous Break out level which is 1015-1020.
On 22nd June we can see a clear rejection from top. Following to the rejection there is a big red candle which is closed near support levels. Now here comes the interesting part the red candle did not got the follow through.
The stock has opened slight gap down on Monday (27th June) and it has been sharply pushed up by buyers. This is a good opportunity to go long and with low SL (approx. 2%)
Please wait for the bullish price action if it opens gap down on Tuesday (28th June)
SL: 1010 Target: 1070
The entry is bit early as I mentioned that previously red candle did not got the follow through.
This is only for educational purpose, please manage your risk accordingly.
Nifty / CNX 500Hello and welcome to this analysis
CNX 500 after a very lengthy period of sideways correction that started in OCT 2021 has shown a very strong reversal in APRIL 2023.
The relative strength chart has now given a fresh signal of further strengthening of CNX 500 over NIFTY, suggesting that CNX 500 stocks shall outperform NIFTY stocks for quite some time. It also means that if there is a correction in markets, the Nifty stocks will correct more than CNX 500 stocks.
From levels point of view today's close has happened at 1.18. As long as the ratio sustains below 1.20 this can move down towards 1.13 and more.
The balance part of this month could lead by the segment.
Trade and Invest wisely
Why are investors turning their attention to mid-cap stocks?This will be the 2 questions we will be discussing today
1. So, what is happening on this divergence and its implication?
2. And who is leading who?
a. Large cap leading the mid-to-small cap market? Or
b. The mid-to-small cap leading the large cap market?
The answer: The mid-to-small cap is leading the large cap market and why is it so?
If recession hits, hypothetically mid-to-small cap stocks employing the majority of the work force or employees in United States will be the most affected, this huge workforce is also considered as the mass consumer.
The large cap stocks, their business depends on the mass consumer. If the mass consumers start to tighten their belts, the large cap stocks revenue will also be affected subsequently.
Some reference for traders:
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 & Option:
Outright:
0.10 index points = $10.00
Micro E-mini S&P MidCap 400:
CME ClearPort:
0.05 index points = $0.50
E-mini Russell 2000 & Option:
Outright:
0.10 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Russell 200
Outright:
0.10 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trident LTDLargest Manufacturer of terry towels in the world. World’s largest wheat straw-based paper manufacturer, and one of the major bath linen providers in the US Forward & Backward integration of operation.
Trident is the second-largest player in home textiles and the third-largest yarn manufacturer in India.
The company has a presence in over 150 countries around the world, with marketing offices in Chandigarh, Bhopal, Gurugram, New Delhi, and Mumbai, and overseas operations in New York, USA, Dubai, and UK.
The company launched ‘Vision 2025’, a plan for coordinating Group efforts to improve the company's positioning across all business verticals. Its goal is to reach Rs 25,000 crore by 2025 with a 12% increase in the bottom line. It also aims to establish Trident as a national brand and digitalise it by completing the smart manufacturing or Industry 4.0 journey
Geographical Split FY22
India: 32%
USA: 44%
Rest of World:24%
DISCLAIMER - IT'S MY STUDY PONTS NOT ANY RECOMMENDATION. THIS IS ONLY FOR STUDY PURPOSE.