04/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $28152.7
Last weeks low: $26737.6
Midpoint: $25322.5
When compared to last weeks outlook, we had what basically looked like a heartbeat monitor in price action. A flatline with a big pulse in the middle of the week from the midpoint then to weekly low, then high then straight back to the midpoint.
Now when looking at the previous weeks price action it's very similar only the price action is hugging the 0.25 line before a huge pump on the news of the Greyscale win against the SEC, we fully retraced and some to print the low of the week.
From a macro perspective, I am still bearish for the time being until proven otherwise, that would be if we finally take out 32.5k convincingly. On the higher time frames we have a lower high and lower low structure, textbook bearish. Not only that, what worries me is how quickly we are retracing good news pumps. Big money seems to lack conviction at this point so for now pumps are for fading. I still think we see 19K again by the end of the year.
September follows a similar historical return as August, generally negative when not in a bullrun year. For now I'm just monitoring, If I'm looking to go short I would do so on a swing fail pattern of the midpoint.
Midpoint
Event Horizon as per ICT Quote by @I_Am_The_ICT via Twitter
“An ICT Event Horizon PD Array -
Halfway between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is my Event Horizon. It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG & it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too "close" to but yet reached.”
Noted New Week Opening Gaps (NWOG) using cryptonnnite’s script (Keyword search “weekly” in indicators). This is very useful in annotating the High Low and CE of previous New Week Opening Gaps.
Measured the distance using TVs Fib tool and including quad levels
Sell at M5, TP at H4 (SnD)In Monthly, you can see current price at almost-pinbar candle shadow. But, the Low price is lower than previous, and no strong rejection at mid point of shadow. Looking at Daily pinbar break, nearest visible demand zone is at H4. At M5, you can see the rectangle I mark at supply zone. This entry idea actually late, but R:R still reasonable.
QTUMBTC Trade| Range Pivot|Hidden Divergence|Neckline ResistanceEvening Traders,
Today’s Analysis – QTUMBTC – Testing range midpoint in an extended descending channel , PA is at trend pivot . Breaking bullish will establish a potential right shoulder, breaking bearish will make the immediate target, range support.
Points to consider,
- Trend trading in a channel
- Midpoint (Local support)
- Range resistance (neckline confluence)
- Hidden bullish divergence ( RSI )
- Volume profile in synch with H&S
QTUMBTC has been trending in a channel with the local support being respected, (range midpoint). Holding this area will establish a potential right shoulder in an H&S pattern.
The range resistance is a key pivot ; breaking above this will confirm the chart pattern.
QTUMBTC has a hidden bullish divergence ; price action at current level will confirm its significance.
The Volume profile is in synch with the potential head and shoulders pattern. Breaking the neckline will need volume follow through for confirmation.
Overall, in my opinion, QTUMBTC is at a pivot point in the chart. Price Action here will dictate the next directional move. Breaking bullish will confirm the pattern and trend change. Breaking down bearish will make the immediate target – range support.
What are your thoughts?
Thank you for following my work!
And remember,
“Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.” – Gerald M. Loeb
USDJPY Impulse Bear Move| Range Support| Resistance Confluence Evening Traders,
Today’s Analysis – USDJPY – Impulse move into daily support with an oversold bounce recovery. A swing low failure in the RSI will show strength, immediate target will then be range resistance.
Points to consider,
- Trend oversold bounce
- Range support retest
- Resistance confluence (200&21 MA, Range Mid-Point)
- RSI below 50 (Weakness)
- Stochastics projected up
USDJPY is currently testing resistance, multiple confluences with the range midpoint and the Moving Averages. Price is likely to retrace back into Range Support (Retest) to solidify an S/R Flip.
The RSI is below 50, indicating weakness in the market. If the RSI puts in a swing low failure at Range Support, this will indicate a probable bounce. The Stochastics current momentum is shifted up, no official sell cross, it can stay here for an extended period of time.
Overall, in my opinion, USDJPY is likely to retest Range Support; this will solidify the level with the immediate target being Range Resistance. A further sell off is likely at Range Resistance due to the magnitude of the impulse sell off.
What are your thoughts?
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And remember,
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”- Warren Buffet
THE BOTTOM IS IN!! Crypto Bottoms ETHUSD 4 HRI originally posted this setup on Oct. 30 (linked). It took FOREVER to reach the anticipated reversal zone but today's capitulation sell-off finally completed this wave. I can only imagine how negative sentiment is today on social media and such, so the mood and despair for the bulls also creates good conditions for a major bottom here.
Note to self: sideways choppy conditions require extreme patience for targets to be hit.
Just two points, the 228.08 swing high (Sept. 15) and 206.14 midpoint (circled, Sept. 17) predicted the reversal that occurred today!