The Best Odds within a Consolidated MarketEvery pattern of the market has precise areas where the probabilities can play in the most favorable way for you, if you trust the pattern (until it expires). Of course, we trust patterns... that's what we do: we drink and trust patterns .
This example on the XRPUSDT pair is a good example of this. As a day trader (or a FTT trader), your hope here would be to catch a meaningful impulse, a long movement of the price that could give you profits. If you want that, where would you place your entry?
The basic knowledge tells about "zones", but all zones are not equally safe and important in every pattern.
For example, we know that the average zone in a consolidated market (the midrange between its resistance and support) is important... but is it safe? Let's think about it:
By definition, an established market that goes sideways is bouncing between its resistance and support zones. It also tends to bounce against the midrange, of course (or, at least, it tends to struggle in that place); but normally you would expect the price to break the middle of the channel in order to reach its margins. Why? Because that's the very nature of the pattern! Duh!
If the price surpass the midrange, the pattern stays vigorous, healthy and reliable. But what happens if the price exceeds markedly the channel's resistance or support? That would be an apparent or definitive breakout of such pattern... its closure: There's no trustable pattern anymore and you must be careful because your previous analysis now belongs to the past.
This reflection is meant to warn you about one of the common mistakes we commit –perhaps because of the nature (a fault?) of our system or because of our unwise decisions–: Not waiting for the price to come up to the best spot for our entry. Not being selective enough when deciding the best settings of the market.
In my series about trading psychology I expect to delve more into this attitude of not caring too much about our best chances, which is a way of not protecting our capital –although there is also a problem in caring too much , to the point of inertia–. But, for now, let's just reflect about the significant disadvantage of placing our bets into forecasts that objectively lack the best odds within a known pattern! Surely those are not the most educated bets we are capable of... and a profitable trader is person who makes educated bets.
Midrange
USDJPY LongThe DXY looks like it is trying to bottom near 101.5 support. Today was the first bullish day on the Daily.
USDJPY is on it's 2nd Daily bullish candle and looks to be reversing.
1. I'd like to see a pullback on Tuesday to Midrange and for price to find support there. If so, I'll look to get long at Midrange near 130, with stops at 129.60.
2. I'd like to see price move about Monday's High and hold 130.90. If so, Take the long and assess price action for stops.
Notes - Scale in
Be Patient - Expect one to two days of sideways price action this week.
Hold for Target/Projection level - TP1 - 132.74
OGNUSDTHELLO Traders
I hope you start a good trading week.
On the chart, we see a formed side range between 0.32~0.18 , which has been active for more than a month.
If the Bitcoin price remains in the current stable position and does not lose its value in the following hours, we can expect a rise in the price of OGN from its current price 0.322 to 0.470 in the next week .
However, if the bitcoin loses its value again, the price will go down to the support area that is 0.238 ~ 0.200which can be a good opportunity for mid-term investment. See the image below for more details.
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Rising Wedge pattern updateI am reposting this idea as I have updated and placed a mid-range resistance for the wedge .
$BTC idea :
Another idea for BTC could be that we are created a pattern of a rising wedge on the weekly TF . Rising wedges usually breakdown to the downside .
Moreover , if it plays out like this we could be having another bounce retesting the previous ATH and then breakdown .
But as mentioned before market is variable and changes .
So we could just be falling from here further to the downside without going higher .
Which in my opinion , I would be expecting another pump before finally crashing the market , as whales could be looking for more liquidity or placing more shorts .
Apr 6
As we got rejected on the mid-range I believe that we could be revisiting the bottom of the rising wedge .
Long SRMUSDTThis may be a midrange trade. If SRM breaks the downtrend of its triangle, it may revisit its previous resistance levels.