Get started

Midterm

Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
That's itHi everyone, We are still in a wedge for Bitcoin. We took out the liquidity that resided above the last swing high, and right now the price is showing rejection, which is creating a new high, with liquidity that resides above it too. In the following days, we might /witness some red days, which will make retail enter short, then test the 0.68 Fib level. After that, we might break above the resistance shown, retest, and then reach the 27,750 level. In summary, we are going to see a move to the downside (short-term), then to the upside (mid-term), and finally continue our long-term downtrend.
Short
by yassin_khanji
2
BTC - Altseason is close!?!☝️On July 12 I told you guys exact scenario that happened on BTC. That first we have to go down with short squeeze and only then we can start a bull run. Let's look at how situation looks right now. ☝️What was the cause of volatility yesterday? Inflation news from US. Inflation was higher than expected, hense we squeezed down, however overall economy is doing good and big money run from europe to US. That's why we rose. ☝️What now? We broke local trendline on BTC and now coming close to global trendline that you can see on daily chart. It's 100 days long so potential move will be huge ! As soon as we break it we will finally change trend to complete bullish and start short altseason What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Long
by Artem_Dishel
12
Consider gold to be safe haven? Don't be so sure🔑 As inflation rises all around the world everyone turns their eyes to gold - safe haven during all financial crisis's. However if you look at the chart, Gold came too close to the stop-losses of bulls, just below the demand zone. When you expect something to rise, you always have to ask yourself - Who will pay for the show? That's exactly why I think that we have to collect liquidity at the bottom of supply zone before going up and starting new bull rally. Targets for such bullish momentum could be as high as previous top at 171, which is roughly 50% iincrease! What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
NASDAQ:XAUShort
by Artem_Dishel
6
How far market will drop? Complete midterm BTC analysis🐻🐂Today many bulls woke up with horror in their eyes, BTC dropped once more and the drop is heavy. Bears on the other hand, excited since a lot of shorts worked out well, I am one of them. Let's look at BTC and see what's waiting for us here. We broke the support at 20k and now heading down. Problem here is that there no strong levels nearby. Closest Levels that can become support are 6% away from here. For intraday traders and scalpers it's a good idea to short this market. However, I wouldn't advise to do it today since most coins are at full ATR already, pullback should be expected. To become bullish once again, we have to break the trendline on the chart as until we are trading under it, we are in bear market. Also for bulls opportunities are not over as they can take bounces or local trendline breakouts when price reaches "Strong support 1" or "Strong support 2" Always be careful, don't try to subdue the market, just follow it. And have strict risk-management! What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Short
by Artem_Dishel
9
Stock Market during Mid-Term Election and Inflation AnalysisThis is a historic timeline showing the following: Visuals: 1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines) 2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines) 3. Recession (Grey box) Charts: 1. Inflation CPI 2. FedFundsRate 3. Unemployment Rate You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked. So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October ( possibly at $3200- Fib lower level ), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years. Feedback welcome! References: 1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org 2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org 3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: www.usbank.com
SP:SPXLong
by naveen31491
BLZ - Midterm short, updating historical lows!BLZ had been in a game almost a week and a lot of people bought, as you can see from volume at high. Right now there is beatiful daily trendline and one of my most profitable setups that I usually trade on lower timeframes. Since it's drawn on daily timeframe, potential for a move is huge as everyone sees it. I expect price to at least touch historical lows since it's a reasonable level for such formation. I will enter in a couple days, when price squeezes to the trendline and BTC will be bearish. P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
BShort
by Artem_Dishel
3
BTC - New range is forming!We saw a beautiful bull trap by marketmaker. Today we may see another. As it's been for a couple months already, marketmaker is really savage and squeezes last onze of money from the market. I expect to see new range for next days, the channel is pretty clear. Locally we could trade alts in the direction of btc bounces inside this range. Globally we still look down, as S&P continues to plummet. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
by Artem_Dishel
3
Possible outlook BTC this year with Phoenix ascending and BBandsCharts says it all. This is just a possibility. Changes in lower timeframes (weekly on up etc) may change all this. I just finished this and thought I might share. Points of support found with 50, 100, 200 MA. Phoenix ascending by Wyckoffmode (David). And badass Bbands (bbands with different SD's). AND supportlines of simples previous supports. Do your own research. NEVER listen blindly to what others say. If you can't understand the data; you. are. gamboling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by The_Royal_Dutchman
1
FET/USDT#FET/USDT ANALYSIS ###################################################################################################################################################+ It is holding above horizontal and trendline support. MACD crossover is loosing bearish momentum. As it is currently creating a higher low, so a good volume will confirm a bullish move from here and a sustain breakdown of the support would confirm bearish move. FET has real great project. you can buy it under 0.35 BUY ORDER < 0.344 SELL ORDER >= 0.37-0.70 Targets: T1: 0.37 T2: 0.42 T3:0.47 T4: the moon If u agree & like my trading still give me some like and follow me boss! love all of u !!! HAPPPY TRADING!!!
Long
by similarKing71131
2