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NZDCAD 01.31.19 BUY SETUP APPROACHING #FOREX Buy Opportunities As explained yesterday's live trading session, we were waiting for price to close above consolidation on the 1H & 4H timeframe. Price has confirmed that movement. We now wait for pullbacks and signs of a reversal to take price to 0.91625. View the chart for more detail. Please wait sellers' exhaustion which is typically show by wicks and candlestick patterns on key disturbance zones. Be patient and trade responsibly.
Long
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
EURJPY 01.31.19 COMPLETE BREAKDOWN #FOREX Monthly This candle is printing a massive wick symbolizing sellers' exhaustion. We could see it be filled through the next few months or leave those sellers behind and start to make its push to the upside. 7 more hours until this monthly candle closes. This monthly candle is rejecting a key level of support at 125 (Major Quarterly Level). The flash crash brought sellers all the way down to roughly 119 before pulling up quickly. Sellers stuck in that range. Weekly Weekly trendline broken, however currently monthly candle displaying sellers exhaustion! Candle could still be filled. For the last 3 weeks we've been rejecting the Disturbance Zone @ 124.50. Strong support. For 5 weeks the bodies of EURJPY have rejected the 61.8% retracement level. Wicks keeping poking above previous weekly highs, BUT bodies continue to close beneath resistance. Buyers are being accumulated around 125-125.50. Daily The last few days have been rejecting the Daily Disturbance Zone @ 125.375. Price poked above recent highs, however, the daily candle still closed beneath resistance, capturing liquidity aka buyers being fooled. The daily candle that represents the flash crash dropped around 470 pips. However, from the low to the close of the bearish daily flash crash candle, it pulled back around 385 pips. MASSIVE WICK. Recent daily support near our Weekly Disturbance Zone @ 124.50-124.60. We've continued to see exhaustion there. Sellers accumulated in that range. 4H Price is rejecting the 71% retracement fib level. The candle that wicked above resistance (Poked to 124.40-50) accumulated buy orders for those looking for that breakout strategies (retail traders). That candle ended up closing well beneath resistance, symbolized buyers' exhaustion. Don't be fooled by quick movements without price CLOSING at those levels. If the market doesn't close above/below resistance/support then it's not a confirmed break. 2 Candles later, we saw another decently sized wick and engulfed to the downside which is what tanked the price. The massive bearish candle crushed all recent support zones (124.75), shifting the current momentum and solidifying bearish movement for a few days. NO PULLBACK, NO ENTRY Now we look at smaller timeframes for selling opportunities. Buyers' exhaustion, reverse candlestick patterns on 1H and below. Look for wicks to show liquidity. 1H Price is rejecting our 1H Disturbance Candle for the second time. The first rejection of the 1H Disturbance Zone ended in a bearish engulfing candle. Price rejected the same level aggressively once again, if this 1H candle engulfs one more time then the bearish move is very strong. The consolidation zone (124.60 - 125.30) may be broken with this bearish push. Once we have that close beneath on the 1H & the 4H... then we have further push to the downside. A push down to 124.25 once price closes beneath the weekly disturbance zone and is retested. 15 Minute Market Structure shifted back to a bearish trend. Price rejected 38.2%, extending to 61.8% traditionally (124.125) Back to back candlestick patterns at the eighth level (124.875) Possible Take Profits Anyone who was watching this live analysis should have entered anywhere from 124.75-124.875. Take Profit based off of 15 min bearish extension would take us to 124.125 conservatively. This aligns with the 78.6% retracement on the hourly timeframe. If look into historical trends: liquidity is common around 124.125. If we close beneath our current higher low, price would be confirming a shift of momentum. One more bearish push after a pullback is likely. That final push would probably take us see the lowest it'll be for the rest of the year.
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
USDCHF 01.29.19 #FOREX Monthly 3 Month candle printed a long wick showing buyers' exhaustion and liquidity capture. August's monthly candle closed beneath previous support, capturing sellers at the low, we waited for a pullback and now we wait for smaller time frames to confirm our long term selling bias. Weekly 1.0050 - 1.0125 is a "liquidity pool." Enough buyers were induced for the market to finally melt. We had a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a price drop. Price close beneath support (.9850), followed by a pullback which led to last week's inside bar. Now we continue to smaller time frames to solidify a clean entry. Daily Rejection of Daily Disturbance Zone (liquidity capture) Bearish engulfing candle followed by a retracement and another bearish engulfing candle. Lots of bearish momentum. Daily bearish close beneath support (0.9930), pullback follows and we dive deeper sub Daily timeframe candles. 4 Hour Break below consolidation/support @ 0.9950, now we are retesting previous support, relative resistance. Currently rejecting 4H Disturbance Key Level. Recent 4H candles are bullish, lets wait for momentum to start to shift along with 1H. 1 Hour Back to back doji candles, buyers losing momentum. Rejecting 61.8% Fib Level. Approaching bearish trendline. Would need to see wicks go beyond resistance to accumulate more buyers, then price to close back into the range. Bearish reversal candlestick patterns our final confirmation on this time frame. 15 Minute Consolidating between 0.9940 - 0.9955 A close beneath the micro support (0.9940) on 15 Minute/1 Hour, followed by a pullback and bearish candlestick pattern would confirm a sell. Price could rapidly shoot up near relative resistance to accumulate buy orders then show exhaustion on 1H/4H timeframe. Sells following liquidity capture would be key. Rejecting 71% Fib Level.
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
5
GBPUSD #FOREXFollow Up Price responded to that 4H zone I displayed yesterday. Unfortunately, I was in the middle of the mountains and had to leave my location with internet but if you've learned from me through the years, you know why that area is there and what to respond to. Once you saw the shift in momentum on the 15 minute time frame, that should have confirmed our forecast for smart money coming in. 4H candles are printing nicely to continue the bullish push. Ride this pair out, trade responsibly friends.
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
AUDUSD Monthly Outlook AUDUSD Monthly Outlook During 2018 we witnessed price not only break that macro trendline, but retest it and continue bearish momentum. Pay attention to the arrows on the chart. Those symbolize where price engulfs the previous month, continuing the meltdown of AUDUSD. You can see how November 2018's bullish engulfing candle may have enticed many to enter short/long term buys. The following month (December 2018), price continued the bearish trend by engulfing back to the downside. We had a "flash crash" to start the month, which is easily visible by that long wick. Based on how this month's candle closes, we'll see whether the next few months will be bullish or bearish.
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader
EURUSD BUY IDEA #FOREXEURUSD BUY IDEA Entry: 1.1390 - 1.1400 SL: 1.1360 TP1: 1.1455; Risk;Reward: 1.85 TP2: 1.1520; Risk;Reward: 3.73 This is an entry following a break of structure. We are seeing a pullback after a 1H bullish trend has been established. Seems to be a correction wave for the overall bearish trend. DXY also correlates with the entry. Since the DXY is 57% EURUSD, the continuation to the upside seems likely. Candlestick patterns, rejection of counter-trend line and 15min correction wave completion add to the bias. Trade responsibly, risk according to your trading plan. I encourage .01 per $100. 3-4% Risk
Long
by IAmTheDisciplinedTrader