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EUR/USD PROFIT !Final EURUSD update another great move on Friday giving me just under 100 PIPS PROFIT. Decided to close this trade early because we have just started a new month and its good to get some percentage banked. I will be looking next week to get a new entry if the market makes it available to me. Until then sit back and be patience. I always see many traders rushing trades because they don't want to miss the run and miss out on profit however we must remember that trading is a long term game and one trade means absolutely nothing.
Long
by WJMITCHFX
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset." Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown." It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit. Employing your Edge So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge. 1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices. 2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade. 3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak. Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey -Josh Ridenour
Education
by tradersmentality
1
USDTRY - Be wary of Intervention ex-post Rapid MovesTraders layering into TRY potentially got burnt last week as the Turkish Central Bank intervened to halt the local currency's worrying devaluation by raising interest rates by a whopping 3% Whilst i tend to let the majority of fundamental data pass me by , it often pays to atleast maintain a health awareness of key macro factors that might have a direct impact on any currency pairs you are trading or tracking (this is different to following any random commentator's subjective opinion) While I do not like setting upside targets , it can pay to trail stops at healthy profit levels during large abnormal moves so as not to give back profits (we saw this in crypto in Dec 17) adn if we miss the big move initially wait for natural pullbacks / consolidations rather than chase an entry. There will ALWAYS be a pullback or another instruments that will offer the next big move. Worst thing to do is chase an entry through FOMO , get burnt and then be paralysed the next time a big opportunity presents itself. Stay rational, stay calm and nimble
Education
by TJP_Trader
EURUSD (EURO) Big Picture: How Could This Possibly Happen???EURUSD (EURO) 042418 7:50 pm. Hi trader friends, since this chart picture should replace a million words... Either the EURUSD topped or it is in a lower degree 4th Wave triangle with only one more pop up to a top, then down for 4-18 months once the top is confirmed. Whether its a triangle with one more high or the 5th Wave already top, is likely to be resolved this week. I expect one more wave lower on the intra-day charts to touch the lower trend-line of what may be a triangle within 1-3 days. Then, the EURUSD will likely bounce in a small corrective rally, meaning a huge down move is imminent. Or, the bounce will have conviction and break the upper triangle resistance for one more impulse wave high, then tank into a Wave 2 low months or longer away. After the Wave 2 low in likely 4-18 months from now, then somehow, the US Dollar will likely be in deep trouble as the EURUSD should have a substantial rally for several years, if this is correct.. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
SHORT 81% of traders are currently short on the SP500!According to www.dailyfx.com market sentiment tool a staggering 81% of traders are holding net short positions on the SP500. .. Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately? .. As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide. .. Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart. A close look at the most recent impulse compared to the last impulse. They are almost identical in range...almost. Singularity presents itself directly at the WEEKLY -270. Spotted at 2423. Only 9 points away! .. The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD Same with 4 hour Same with 1 hour And the weekly chart shows the same divergence with a 5 wave count. .. Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this. .. Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December. .. Rewind to 2000, right before the crash. We see price stalling for around 157 days and selling off sharply in October. .. And then there was 1987 This thing didn't give much of a warning. Perhaps it was a time where less market manipulation took place? But we can see the sell off came around the end of of October. .. Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway. Bottom line : The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pAulseperformance
81% of traders are currently short on the SP500!According to www.dailyfx.com market sentiment tool a staggering 81% of traders are holding net short positions on the SP500. .. Now I understand that roughly about the same percentage of traders don't make money and maybe that's why the SP500 has been making new highs lately? .. As always, I present you with my technical view of the market and then you can decide. .. Looking at the monthly charts it's fairly easy to say were due for a correction, but "when" is the key here. So I'll start with the 2 day chart. A close look at the most recent impulse compared to the last impulse. They are almost identical in range...almost. Singularity presents itself directly at the WEEKLY -270. Spotted at 2423. Only 9 points away! .. The normal daily interval is showing us massive divergence on the MACD Same with 4 hour Same with 1 hour And the weekly chart shows the same divergence with a 5 wave count. .. Price has been stalling just under 2400 for quite some time. And we saw a quick sell off just last week which recovered to new high's just as fast. Historically, before sell offs we normally see some irregular price action like this. .. Go back to 2008, we see price correcting not steadily climbing as before! It does this for around 148 days before the sell off in December. .. Rewind to 2000, right before the crash. We see price stalling for around 157 days and selling off sharply in October. .. And then there was 1987 This thing didn't give much of a warning. Perhaps it was a time where less market manipulation took place? But we can see the sell off came around the end of of October. .. Drawing from current technical analysis and historical data we may see some shit going down by the end of the year. Be patient and don't try and pick a top people! Just look at the charts from 1987, 2000 and 2008. I can see a few places for perfect entries AFTER a sell off was already confirmed and price really wasn't too far away from the top anyway. Bottom line : The crowd is right, but they got to the party early and the music hasn't even started yet so its kinda awkward.
SP:SPXShort
by pAulseperformance
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good. You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades. This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame. You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools. Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin . Being Human is something we can't get away from. But we can learn to master our mind. A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful . Yet traders are still losing. Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome. So how can we be more profitable? If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough. If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work. Set your stop and take, and leave it alone. Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool. Happy trading everyone, AvidTrader
Education
by avidtrader89
"Money is made by SITTING, not TRADING" - Jesse LivermoreOne of the major reasons why traders lose money is because they ride out their losses and close profitable trades too early. While being patient can help us to achieve our maximum profit potential, being patient on the wrong side of a trade can be costly. This is a great insight into why we are naturally predisposed to riding out losses and not quitting while we are ahead. It's an exert from a book that I recommend you all read called "Trading For A Living" by Elder Alexander. "Roy Shapiro, a New York psychologist from whose article this subtitle is borrowed, writes: 'With great hope, in the private place where we make our trading decisions, our current idea is made ready....one difficulty in selling is the attachment experienced toward the position. After all, once something is ours, we naturally tend to become attached to it....This attachment to the things we buy has been called the "endowment effect" by psychologists and economists and we all recognize it in our financial transactions as well as in our inability to part with that old sports jacket hanging in the closet. The speculator is the parent of the idea....the position takes on meaning as a personal extension of self, almost as one's child might....Another reason that Johnny does not sell, even when the position may be losing ground, is because he wants to dream....For many, at the moment of purchase critical judgement weakens and hope ascends to govern the decision process.' Dreaming in the markets is a luxury that nobody can afford. If your trades are based on dreams, you are better off putting your money into psychotherapy." If your trades, before you enter them, do not have predetermined take levels and stop loss levels, then you are setting yourself up to fail. Sitting really does make money, but before we sit, we must first SET and FORGET. Happy trading, AvidTrader
Education
by avidtrader89
9
EURUSD a little outlook for what to trade next weekIf you´ve been following me the euro have been very good to us this past weeks with 3 winning trades and 1 loss. For monday i´ve got a Bullish Cypher pattern if price heads south to but it up at strong Support. If price heads north we are gonna sell it at the blue Bat pattern at a lesser, but still good reistance area, but compared to the Cypher this pattern got a lot higher R:R so its well worth it. We always try to be one step ahead of the market, and put in orders when we don´t have any emotions aboute it. We use the IF THEN method to see, if this happens, we do that, and if it does this in stead, we do this in stead. We are planning for several senarios while we don´t have our emotions haning on the outside of our cloth and then we just stick with our analysis cause we know its tested and profitable so we just have to control out emotions, and focus on money management! A subject i see more and more here on TradingView not beeing giving much of a thought, but its almost more important than your trading method if you want to see the returns you are dreaming about. How come some people that have the same size account, makes the same amount of pips make a totaly different return on account. It´s MONEY MANAGEMENT the art of when to increase or decreace your position size! So please spend some of your weekend reading on Fixed Ratio money management vs. Smoothed Ratio money management, you will be amazed! I´ve got a starting point for you read the book by "Ryan Jones - The Trading Game Playing By The Numbers To Make Millions" It will change your trading career! Kind Regards Thomas Jeff
by UnknownUnicorn101425
12