RIOT: moving stop loss upRIOT is at a spot where only a 3 waves sequence has completed. If abc move is the end of this sequence, then there is no reason for holding on at the moment. But in case a wave 5 is due, we might still be in for some good size gains. So, instead of completely getting out, I have taken profit at wave 3 and now have moved the stop loss up right below Thursday low. The whole thing can be part of a larger ABC pattern or if we have a full 5 waves up, then it might be start of a much larger wave 3 sequence. So, I will try to keep some skin in the game. Leave a bit that I can afford to lose completely and not lose any sleep over it...
Miner
The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin: A Journey Through Market Movements
The history of Bitcoin has been marked by extreme volatility, influenced by various factors ranging from regulatory developments to macroeconomic events. The chart provided highlights several key moments in the 2023-2024 period, illustrating the dramatic rise and subsequent corrections in Bitcoin's price. This detailed analysis has been conducted by the Global Miranda Miner Group, under the expert guidance of Coach Miranda Miner, a renowned figure in cryptocurrency education and research. Following their insights provides a comprehensive understanding of the market's movements.
The Bull Run Leading into 2024
The journey began in mid-2023, where Bitcoin's price experienced significant upward momentum. This rise was primarily fueled by favorable legal and regulatory developments. In August 2023, the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale in their case against the SEC. This ruling was pivotal as it suggested a potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the near future. The anticipation of such an approval drove the price of Bitcoin higher as institutional investors began to take more interest, speculating on the increased legitimacy and accessibility of Bitcoin through traditional financial instruments.
By October 2023, rumors of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF were rampant, further fueling the bullish sentiment. As institutional participation grew, retail investors also joined the rally, pushing Bitcoin to new highs. The approval of all spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the SEC in January 2024 was a significant milestone, solidifying the belief that Bitcoin was becoming an accepted asset class. However, in the days following the approval, the market saw a classic "sell the news" reaction, where prices slightly dipped as traders took profits after the long-awaited regulatory approval.
The Impact of Mt. Gox Wallet Movements
As Bitcoin reached its peak in early 2024, market sentiment became increasingly cautious, particularly due to the movements from the infamous Mt. Gox wallets. In March 2024, a substantial amount of Bitcoin was moved from these wallets, causing concern among investors about a potential large-scale sell-off. This movement created temporary volatility, as the market feared the impact of these dormant coins re-entering circulation.
Further exacerbating the situation, in April 2024, another large transfer from the Mt. Gox wallets was detected, leading to intensified scrutiny. By June 2024, with the final deadline for creditors to claim their funds approaching, the market was on edge. On July 5, 2024, following the finalization of creditor claims, another substantial transfer was observed, which led to a notable dip in Bitcoin's price, reflecting the market's unease with the potential liquidation of these assets.
Geopolitical and Macro Influences
In addition to the Mt. Gox wallet movements, geopolitical events also played a crucial role in Bitcoin's price volatility. On July 27, 2024, a speech by former U.S. President Donald Trump in Nashville, coupled with an assassination attempt on Trump, created a wave of uncertainty across global markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against traditional financial instability, initially spiked in response to the news but soon corrected as the situation stabilized.
Furthermore, the market was also influenced by broader macroeconomic factors. For instance, the halving event in 2024 had a significant impact on the network’s hash rate and miner behavior, adding to the complexity of the market's dynamics. Miners began to capitulate, leading to fluctuations in Bitcoin's price as the reduced supply met varying demand levels.
The Ripple Case and Regulatory Pressure
In August 2024, another significant event was the ruling in the Ripple vs. SEC case, where Judge Torres fined Ripple $125 million, signaling the closure of this long-standing legal battle. This decision had a broader impact on the cryptocurrency market, as it clarified the regulatory landscape for digital assets, influencing market sentiment and leading to further price corrections.
August 2024 also saw a combination of factors that led to a sharp market downturn. Retailer capitulation, institutional manipulation, and rising interest rates from the Bank of Japan all contributed to a steep decline in Bitcoin’s value. This period highlighted the vulnerabilities of the cryptocurrency market to both internal and external pressures.
Conclusion
The rise and fall of Bitcoin throughout 2023-2024 underscore the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. Driven by a mix of regulatory developments, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic pressures, Bitcoin's price experienced dramatic swings. This detailed analysis by the Global Miranda Miner Group and Coach Miranda Miner serves as a critical guide for understanding these market movements. To stay informed and navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market, it is highly recommended to follow their research and insights.
Marathon Digital: Strong!We expect the MARA price to continue to rally during the blue wave (x). Only when the high is placed a little closer to the resistance at $31.30 should there be a sell-off into our magenta Target Zone (between $16.35 and $9.86), which completes the same-colored wave (ii) correction. Within this range, investors can open long positions, whereby stops could be placed around 1% below the lower edge. Once the low is set, the price should rise above the resistance at $31.30. Only our 33% probable alternative scenario calls for a more bearish development: it still places the stock in the green wave alt. (2)
RIOT Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIOT Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $2.98.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RIOT: Time to wake up and get readyRIOT April breakdown has confirmed the intermediate wave 2 still intact. Good news is, price is likely making a major bottom. The bottom rectangle on the chart represents several technical support zones and if price comes down to this area, it will be a buy for me. We should at least expect a bounce from there. But if price doesn't hold in this area, then we have something else going on and the correction may turn out into a complete annihilation of this stock. Risk management is of the upmost importance once the toe is dipped.
Miners' Bitcoin Holdings Decrease While Value in USD IncreasesWhile the amount of Bitcoin in miners' hands continues to decrease, its value against the dollar is increasing.
Miners' Bitcoin Reserves:
In 2019, Bitcoin miners held approximately 2.9 million Bitcoin.This number has been steadily decreasing since then. As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (source: intotheblock).
Value of Miners' Bitcoin Reserves:
In nominal terms, the amount of BTC they hold has decreased. However, in terms of value, it has reached the 2021 level again.
To illustrate:
On April 5, 2021, miners held 2.37 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $142 billion.
As of today, miners hold approximately 2 million Bitcoin (worth approximately $129 billion).
Conclusion:
After the halving, we can expect miners' reserves to decrease (also to meet the increasing demand).
However, this is not a scary situation. I expect the dollar value of Bitcoin in miners' hands to exceed the previous all-time high in the near future. The reason for this is that the "realised price" (approximately the cost) of Bitcoin will increase after the halving. Overall, this is a data point that we should regularly check to better understand the bull cycle.
TradingView code for tracking the data:
BTC_MINERRESERVESUSD
BTC_MINERRESERVES
Thanks for reading.
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MARA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $7.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
As you can see in the chart, I'm bearish short-term but bullish by the end of the year.
RIOT: Bounce incomingRIOT is going through a major rout right now. It has fallen much harder compared to BTC. At this point we should see at least a relief rally for both. Current price action looks like a larger wave C is playing out. However, we cannot completely discount the bullish case. The way to identify would be the pace and strength of the next move. If we see a choppy wave 4 type of price action, then the expected wave 5 to around $7.5 area should play out in the next few weeks. If we see a very sharp reversal the takes price above $13.75, then something else is going on and will need to switch to the bullish count. In either case, a buy signal should present itself in the coming weeks.
Marathon Digital Mining Stock Head and Shoulders pattern
Simple Head and Shoulder pattern playing out before the BTC halving. Prior to last ATH for MARA there was a Head and Shoulders that played into the ATH. You can see around $20 MARA would break the neckline and then there is a bit of resistance before hitting ATH.
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-10,
for a premium of approximately $1.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RIOT: will it make one last low or push up from hereEW structure is preferring one lower move to finish the ending diagonal wave C between $7-$8. However, BTC is not done with its move yet. The clue will lie on RIOT moves relative to BTC. If we see BTC making new highs in the next week or two but RIOT staying flat or not breaking highs then most likely the wave 5 down is coming. But it will be a screaming buy at those levels. I price breaks higher, then most likely the downside move is over, and every dip should be buyable in the medium term 2-3 months.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Slowly but surely… 👍Slowly but surely, Agnico is devoting itself to the current downwards pressure. Despite the occasional counter movement, the share should soon reach and break through the support at $31.03. Thus, it should arrive in the yellow zone between $19.10 and $10.08 to complete wave (2) in yellow. As soon as this is done and dusted, Agnico can turn upwards again, climb back above $31.03 and further northwards from there. A 25% chance remains, though, that the share could get dragged above the resistance at $67.14 instead. In that case, we would expect the ascent to continue above $89.16 as well.
Fresnillo: Getting Down for Business 👇Since the end of wave B in turquoise, Fresnillo has been continually getting down for business. And the share should keep going as we expect it to march below both the supports at GBP 610 and at GBP 456.60. There is a 35% chance, though, that the course could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at GBP 997 instead. In that case, Fresnillo should enter the turquoise zone between GBP 1085.80 and GBP 1292.80 to develop a new high in the form of wave alt.B in turquoise before moving southwards again.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Stayed Strong 💪Agnico Eagle has stayed strong and has made it into the blue zone between $63.39 and $71.21 despite a momentary setback. If we now turn up our most motivating playlist, it should even climb a bit higher still to finish wave (b) in blue. Afterwards, Agnico Eagle should turn around and head in the direction of the support at $45.42. It should then fall below this mark, as well as below the next one at $31.03. Still, there is a 35% chance that the course could keep climbing, rising above both the resistance at $74.50 and the one at $89.16.
ANY 5.7 Exahash of computing powerSphere 3D Corp. (ANY) has a delal with NuMiner to buy 60,000 bitcoin mining machines for a total of 5.7 Exahash of computing power.
I know the issue, the pictures from NuMiner were not their own, but what is they indeed deliver the performance?
MARA Marathon Digital on the other hand is on-track to deploying 103,120 miners which will provide a combined output of 10.37 ExaHash, resulting in an estimated 50-60 BTC per day.
I see an easy upside for ANY to reach $5.75.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$HUT primed for a rip? BTC up, do miners make a run?With BTC/crypto finding support going into the weekend, crypto miners are set to make a run for the week of 2/7/22
I traded $HUT in the past on it's run to it's high of $16.57.
Many bag holders on the route back to that high, so I would expect selling pressure on any movement to the upside.
Not expecting a run to $16 in the coming week, but a run to $9.00 definitely looks possible
Drew some crystal gazer tarot lines (lol) from recent high bullish volume points that create a channel that looks primed for a break out
1st PT: 7.09
2nd PT: 8.10
3rd PT: 9.00
$5.8 range is support/technical exit level
Watching for confirmation of break of 50EMA for further movement to the upside
BTC/crypto sentiment will weigh heavily on the momentum of movement - bullish and bearish
Many of these miners are great for trading to grow small accounts, and often run parallel with BTC/crypto sentiment
As always, stay sharp, and manage your risk! Good luck!
Senor C
*Not financial advice*