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bitcoin miner capitulationThe analysis is based on the price floor of bitcoin production in China in these calculations only power consumption is considered to achieve the lowest possible state and we Ignore other expenses such as hardware costs and maintenance , etc... The purpose is to examine the impact of mining on bitcoin price Some believe that if the miners leave the network, difficulty will be adjust and the network will return to normal. This is completely wrong Imagine an example that, like the recent bitcoin drop, price fall below $ 2000 in one day. In this case, the majority of miners turn off their hardwares , hashrate will drop a lot , Because of this, block time goes up dramatically Network difficulty is adjusted once every 2016 block (2 weeks with 10 min block time ) , So when the block time goes up , We should be involved in tuning the network difficulty for about a month or more , It can be said that the network will be severely disrupted , Whether in terms of transaction fees or in terms of transaction speed and confirmation of transactions It also makes that The speed of bitcoin delivery to the market Go down sharply , That can be a factor in raising price So the market always reacts to certain price levels , So miners don't get out of the network quickly here is top 2019 asics the average electricity price for dry season in china is ~ 5 cent for large farms ( + mw ) : formula : Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost = electricity cost of creating 1 btc antminer S17+ 73: ( 3.50 * 833.7 ) = 2917 $ antminerS17+ 67: ( 3.22 * 895.32 ) = 2882 $ antminer T17+ 55TH : ( 3.30 * 1106.52 ) = 3651 innosilicon T3+ pro 67: ( 3.96 * 908.33) = 3596 $ Avalon 1166 68 : ( 3.84 * 894.98) = 3436 $ whatsminer M20S 65: ( 3.74 * 936.28 ) = 3501 $ antminer S9 SE 17TH : ( 1.63 * 3579.91) = 5833 $ 2020 upcoming asics : Antminer S19 Pro 110 Th/s 3250w Days to create 1 btc * daily electricity cost 590.87 * 3.90 = 2304 ( china dry season ) Whatsminer M30 88Th/s 3344 w 738.59 * 4.01 = 2961 ( china dry season ) After halving cost will be *2 because number of days to create 1 btc will be double so i showed how levels will be after halving on the chart , even 2020 asics suggests that price should stay up after halving You can read more about how the electricity cost is calculated and US cost calculation at google docs link below , google docs i believe that usa is big part of miners , as you know bitmain also launched +50 mw farm in texas
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by alirezakaj
1
Oppressed Ethereum, rise to 200$.. then 300$ ?The price of Ethereum has been oppressed since the beginning of this year, miners would be selling at a loss against the electricity costs per $/kwh right now and i'm sure they're not liking this. I believe this $ETH dump will recuperate very soon to 150$-ish, then eventually to 200$ with the extra tax-return income of young employees' salaries that feel like investing ~early~ in crypto , and 300$ by June hopefully :) let's see how it goes.. don't over-leverage ~~
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by non-hop
A refutation of the $6400 Bitcoin miner bottomSo, are you ready for this beauty ? I am aware of filbfilb's economics of Bitcoin cycles, a very famous and thorough analysis of how the halving influences the Bitcoin price as a function of miner's anticipation of their revenue cut in half for the same cost of production. However, I disagree with the premises and the $6400 miner bottom. Miners are not the only sellers on the market. Production cost is a function of hash rate. Hash rate is a function of miner optimism, which is a function of price, which is a function of market sentiment, which is a function of chart aspect, which is a function of visual representation and its geometrical proportions in relation to the brain's perceptual cortex. If people don't like the way the chart looks, they will not buy and thus demand will drop . Simple as that. It won't matter that halving would have reduced the supply, people will not buy if the geometry of price action looks bearish and so demand won't be there to cover miners. What that means for miners: at some point after the halving, they'll have initial production cost above market price, which will cause many to go bankrupt, hash rate will drop , difficulty will drop in response and remaining miners will regain profitability again. Equilibrium restored below $6400. Until next time...
BNC:BLXShort
by BlueChipMutt
2
Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate GrowthThe current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin. The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event. We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR) In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring. However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices: 1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR... 2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run. In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week: OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION Apr 2012: 2 Dec 2012: 2 Dec 2014: 2 Apr 2015: 21 Nov 2016: No Capitulation* Oct 2018: 5 Mar 2019: No Capitulation* May 2019: No Capitulation* Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month. This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month. However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY. 10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. Notes: * Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away ** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
BNC:BLX
by capriole_charles
11