Get started

Miner

A refutation of the $6400 Bitcoin miner bottomSo, are you ready for this beauty ? I am aware of filbfilb's economics of Bitcoin cycles, a very famous and thorough analysis of how the halving influences the Bitcoin price as a function of miner's anticipation of their revenue cut in half for the same cost of production. However, I disagree with the premises and the $6400 miner bottom. Miners are not the only sellers on the market. Production cost is a function of hash rate. Hash rate is a function of miner optimism, which is a function of price, which is a function of market sentiment, which is a function of chart aspect, which is a function of visual representation and its geometrical proportions in relation to the brain's perceptual cortex. If people don't like the way the chart looks, they will not buy and thus demand will drop . Simple as that. It won't matter that halving would have reduced the supply, people will not buy if the geometry of price action looks bearish and so demand won't be there to cover miners. What that means for miners: at some point after the halving, they'll have initial production cost above market price, which will cause many to go bankrupt, hash rate will drop , difficulty will drop in response and remaining miners will regain profitability again. Equilibrium restored below $6400. Until next time...
BNC:BLXShort
by BlueChipMutt
2
Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate GrowthThe current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin. The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event. We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR) In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring. However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices: 1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR... 2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run. In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week: OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION Apr 2012: 2 Dec 2012: 2 Dec 2014: 2 Apr 2015: 21 Nov 2016: No Capitulation* Oct 2018: 5 Mar 2019: No Capitulation* May 2019: No Capitulation* Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month. This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month. However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY. 10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. Notes: * Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away ** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
BNC:BLX
by capriole_charles
11
Silver Miners Setting up for Big Bullish MoveMarkets are correlated. US equities have been staving off another major decline for the last few months, and conversely, precious metals--although impacted by a rising dollar--remain long-term bullish. We can see a nice wedge-type formation here of bullish implications. It's full target is about 40% above current prices, but then full targets are not necessarily reached. Strategy is to go long on break of trend line...this will likely take a while to play out given the chart shown is weekly.
AMEX:SILLong
by Ian_Carsen
1
Tracklist Stock: AXUAdding this stock to my tracklist: no position atm. Alexco Resource Corp. conducts mining operations and mineral exploration and development in Canada. It explores for silver, lead, zinc, and gold ores. The company's mining business activities are divided into two reportable segments: Environmental Services and Mining Operations. The Environmental Services segment carried out through Alexco Environmental Group, providing consulting and project management services in respect of environmental permitting and compliance and site remediation and reclamation; and the Mining Operations segment, including the operating Bellekeno mine, producing silver, lead and zinc in the form of concentrates. It also had a non-operating segments, the Exploration of Mineral Properties, which includes exploration and evaluation activities; and the Corporate segment, which includes the Corporation's executive head office and general corporate administration and activity. Alexco Resource was founded on December 3, 2004 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Website: www.alexcoresource.com - Sales 2016: 80,1 M - EBIT 2016: 31,5 M - Debt 2016: 16,0 M - Sales 2017: 144 M - EBIT 2017: 30,3 M - Capi. / Sales2016: 2,77x - Capi. / Sales2017: 1,43x - Capitalization: 206 M Tracklist: no advice atm. Notes: - Trades in sync with gdx/gdxj and thus spot. - Longterm target on the chart is currently set at 2.68 - Daily support zone is at 1.31
A
by Childrenofmen