The Case for MinersBTC is now entering its final form. As I see it, the period beginning now and progressing over the coming months is likely to be the most rapid and vicious ascent of this entire market cycle beginning from the post-FTX lows. This cycle shall also culminate in Bitcoin's long-awaited rise to its greatest potential: accumulation on a global sovereign scale.
Thus, the time to pay attention and allocate to BTC beta, especially miners, has reached its apex. I'm a bit late to this post as I have already positioned in several miners, namely CLSK and WULF, but plan to finish accumulating shares and long calls rapidly. The best entries tend to be on daily closes above previous monthly or quarterly highs, especially when the previous monthly candle was a doji or hammer, indicating accumulation and downtrend exhaustion. This is precisely what we just saw with the candle of the month of September 2024, and I entered on the first daily close above its $10.47 high.
This post is generally for made for posterity and on the eve of a possible daily close confirming a textbook H&S bottom. While the measured move of this patter coincides with the yearly POC around ~$16-17, and it may well see some trouble accepting there, I plan to hold the majority of my longs into the 1st fib extension at $35, and, depending on conditions, will leave some to run to the 2nd extension around $52. RSI indicates that we haven't even entered the bull market phase of this run. Have fun and good luck to all - exciting times lie ahead!
Miners
CLSK: Big Move ComingCLSK technicals look like the price is ready to make a move up. Weekly MACD beginning to curl higher, higher highs and lows on the RSI, and volume profile support with a massive volume gap to the upside provide for a bullish setup.
BTC is approaching the time frame where historically, post-halving, the price per coin moons higher. Additionally, the US fed is lowering rates and china is providing stimulus to their economy, which will provide for more cash that can make its way into crypto.
CLSK’s hashrate expansion and BTC owned can make this miner a prime benefactor of a bullish BTC move.
ALB - Dip formation might be in play Lithium prices fell more than 85% from their 2022 peak back to 2021 levels. There are still concerns about supply / demand issues. Slowing signals from EV sales might have worsened the outlook. But In 2025, the global demand for lithium is expected to surpass 1.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a growth of 53 percent in comparison to 2023. And by 2030 3.1 million metric tons. (Statista)
Recently low prices pressured margins and Chinese CATL announced production cut equivalent to 8% of Chinese production. This might be a signal that we are close to low of business cycle.
Albemarle's name also recently came up in news with Rio Tinto's plans of acquiring a major lithium producer.
Gold Builds Base : Look For Support Below $2650 For LongsMy research shows Gold will make another big move upward over the next 10-15+ days - targeting $2740-2750. But first, Gold will attempt to base/bottom near or below $2650 over the next two trading days.
My research suggests Oct 3 and Oct 4 will likely be the start of a rally phase for Gold targeting the $2750 level by Oct 14-15.
I believe traders should attempt to look for long entries below $2645-2655 and view any move below $2640 as a deep low opportunity.
Gold is still hedging the global risk factors at play throughout the world and will attempt to move above $3050 before the end of 2024.
Get ready. This is the start of the big rally phase I've been warning you about for the past 3-4+ years.
Everything I suggested would happen is taking place right now. You just have to be able to take the trades to benefit from these moves.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
RIOT: Is it time to buy now?RIOT has made into my very long-awaited target of $6.5 entry point and went beyond it by a little. This technically marks the end of intermediate degree wave 2. The move following the low has been steady but not extremely strong. For a wave 3, I would have liked to see a very strong and convincing V bottom recovery, but it has been a bit choppy. In the coming weeks if price picks up steam and starts to make some headways, then my confidence level will come back.
Indicators are looking fairly good. Want to see MACD cross over the 0 line and start getting some wider read on the histogram. Want to see Stochastics to keep snaking around on the top third of the chart and not fall back in below 60 read.
EW count might have completed a very preliminary 1/2, 1/2 and ready for a 3 of 3 at a minuette degree. We should start to see more prominent green bars to confirm this.
I had a very old order filled at $6.5, so I am in it now. But, I would prefer to double or triple up after I see a full 5 waves sequence. Also want to see a break above the midrange of the channel and then a retrace to test it. At the moment my stops will rise below the last low as higher lows are formed. Right now, do not want to see a break below $6.94.
SILVER SHORT via AG (WORST RUN MINER IN THE GAME) FUNDAMENTAL
- Price of Silver aside, AG is an incredibly poorly run miner. From mass share dilution to disastrous acquisitions I can not think of a more poorly run company. The stock price speaks for itself... sitting near the lows of the year despite silver at recent highs.
SILVER
- Silver has been behaving very weak in relation to Gold. Unless we break out above 31.50-32.50 I see Silver continuing to be range bound at best. There are many reasons for this. Mainly indications from strong correlations that I will not mention (secret sauce).
TECHNICALS
- The price is at a solid supply level (6.20) and has already began dramatic impulses to the downside at any hint of Silver rolling over. In addition we have divergence on the RSI.
DISCLAMER: No Neumeyers were hurt in the making of this post
Gold Breakout and Retest StrategyRecent Breakout: Gold has already broken through a strong resistance level and moved significantly higher.
Pullback Scenario: Now, I’m watching for a potential pullback where the price could retest the new support level, which was the previous resistance.
Bounce Opportunity: If the price successfully retests and holds the new support, we could see a bounce, providing a good entry point for a long position.
Confirmation: Wait for signs of bullish momentum or candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, hammer) at the support level to confirm the bounce before entering the trade.
Risk Management: A stop-loss can be placed just below the new support to protect against a failed retest or further decline.
RIOT Platforms - Corsicana 2024! 🍿🤗🕺Been buying shares of RIOT, and will continue to add shares anytime this gets in the 9s. After a couple bad years of production, RIOT's new Corsicana facility is energizing and the new miners will boost hashrate and increase efficiency. Oh, and lets not forget the 8500 Bitcoin on the balance sheet and positive earnings. RIOT has been undervalued for too long!
As for the technicals, everything looks golden imo. Macro trend from 2020 retested. 618 held, .50 held. Not seeing anyway bears get this back to the 7s.
LFG!
RIOT: Summer doldrum continuesThe correction on BTC, crypto and overall markets continue as summer heat is intensifying on the northern hemisphere. While BTC is staying within the top end of the range, miners are not getting the love. In fact, if BTC makes a higher high within the next 60 days and begins a bigger correction cycle (Minor wave 2), miners might get crushed. Right now, I have 2 counts going on RIOT. the sideways correction on a pretty fat channel has been going on for a long time now. Until $8.81 breaks, I am still keeping the red count to look for a higher high to emulate BTC. But, if BTC keeps going down for a larger wave 4 correction, then the green count will ensue for RIOT. Right now, I am looking for an entry point. It will need to be either on the break of the channel or on a dump that reaches the bottom of the channel. This correction can go on for a long time. It can extend the B wave for a false break of the channel or get resistance on the top of the channel before a bigger fall. It will be quite difficult to time the market, so will have to bite the bullet and go for it when the conditions feel right and have tight money management. It will not work out on one shot more likely and will need some finesse to get it right. Once it's on track, RIOT has the potential to change lives!!! Gamestop who???
Riot: Tug of warThe bulls and bears are currently engaged in a tug-of-war on RIOT's chart. From a technical perspective, the magenta wave (ii) could already be over. However, we are not yet convinced of this and give the price room to move closer to the support at $7.80. Only when the low of the move is established just above this level should the price turn around and rise significantly with the magenta wave (iii). Following this move, a small interim correction is likely to set in again, but this should be followed by a further rise above the resistance at $20.64, which completes turquoise wave 1. If, on the other hand, the price were to slide imminently below the aforementioned support at $7.80 (36% likely), we will have to see it in the magenta-colored wave alt. (2). In this alternative scenario, it should fall back into the same-colored Target Zone between $6.99 and $5.24.
2XBEAR JUNIOR MINERS LOOKING GOOD FROM HERE!It's time for precious metals to take a cooler.
I noticed AMEX:JDST 's options for $5 is off the chart compared to other months. I bought calls for .20 for $5 strike price in September. I anticipating these going to 2.00 by then which is 1000% return.
I also think AMEX:DUST is worthy of buying at these levels too - except they don't have miners, but I see a 500% return for this stock by the fall.
I will also link to some supportive ideas following this post.
Rebalancing with HIVE: A Closer Look at a Solid Miner Taking a strategic look at my crypto portfolio today, and HIVE keeps catching my eye. This established miner offers some compelling reasons for a long-term position. Let's dive in:
Proven Track Record: HIVE has been around longer than many competitors, navigating the ups and downs of the crypto market. This experience translates to reliable operations and consistent uptime, key factors for steady returns.
Efficiency Leader: They consistently rank among the most efficient miners, squeezing the most out of their resources. This efficiency translates to better cost management and potentially higher profitability.
Growth Focused, Not Frantic: While some miners chase aggressive expansion, HIVE prioritizes sustainable growth. This measured approach might limit explosive upside, but it also reduces risk and enhances their long-term stability.
Undervalued Potential: Currently trading below some peers, HIVE could offer an attractive entry point for investors seeking value.
Technical Considerations: The charts signal potential for solid growth, further strengthening the investment case.
Beyond Bitcoin: HIVE ventures into AI and high-performance computing, potentially diversifying its revenue streams and future-proofing its operations.
HIVE Mined 234 BTC in January, HODL Up 14%. Upgraded Fleet for Efficiency, Bracing for Halving.
Key Points:
Production: 234 BTC mined, HODL increased 14% to 1,939 BTC.
Efficiency: Upgraded fleet with latest S21 miners, aiming for lower mining costs.
Halving Ready: HODL strategy and efficiency upgrades position HIVE for Bitcoin halving in April.
Looks like business as usual from HIVE. 😎
RIOT: Staying on bearish side until bulls can prove me wrongStaying with bearish count until price can break above $18.36. Since BTC is pumping, would expect some more gains for RIOT next week, but don't expect much at the moment. The earnings were good and company is doing a lot of right things to become the leading name in mining. There is an inverse head and shoulders patter forming. I have taken a small position at around $8.5 where I got a buy signal and taken some profit. I want to see another lower low to fill my bag properly. If I don't get my wish and if $7.8 was the final low (technically it could be), then I will look to buy the dips only after price moves above $18.36.
RIOT Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIOT Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $2.98.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bitcoin Miners Navigate Uncharted Waters Amid Halving EventThe aftermath of Bitcoin's recent halving event has ushered in a new era of uncertainty and opportunity for miners, as they grapple with escalating mining costs and shifting market dynamics. With the hash power required to produce one Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) per day surpassing unprecedented levels, miners face a daunting reality characterized by shrinking profit margins and heightened competition.
Halving's Impact on Mining Economics:
The halving's direct impact on miners' revenue, coupled with the surge in hash rate, has triggered a seismic shift in mining economics. The reduction in block rewards from 6.25 CRYPTOCAP:BTC to 3.125 CRYPTOCAP:BTC has necessitated a doubling of mining investments to maintain profitability. Data from Glassnode underscores the magnitude of this shift, with the total number of Bitcoins produced plummeting post-halving, exerting further pressure on miners' bottom lines.
Navigating Profitability Challenges:
The profitability of Bitcoin ( TSX:BCT ) mining, as measured by hashprice, has plummeted by 72% in the wake of Bitcoin's declining price. Despite these challenges, miners find solace in the potential of transaction fees emerging as a viable revenue stream amidst dwindling block rewards. The surge in transaction fees following the halving, driven by protocols like Runes, offers a glimmer of hope amid turbulent market conditions.
Whale Movements and Market Sentiment:
Bitcoin's dip below $64,000 has ignited speculation about a potential market reversal, with whale movements and bearish sentiment dominating the narrative. The surge in whale Bitcoin exchange inflows suggests profit-taking amid the ongoing bull run, fueling concerns of further price corrections. However, optimistic signals, such as decreasing exchange reserves and a declining Network To Value (NVT) ratio, hint at a potential price rebound in the offing.
Charting a Path Forward:
As miners worry about their current plight, resilience, and adaptability emerge as their greatest assets. With the potential for transaction fees to offset declining block rewards and promising indicators of a market reversal, miners are poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities amidst the evolving Bitcoin ecosystem. The convergence of technological innovation and market dynamics presents a fertile ground for miners to thrive in the face of adversity.