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GDX, is this a forgotten treasure?Hello everyone, So Gold is finally back in a buy/accumulation zone, even though DXY may have more room to run I doubt this will translate in to heavy downside for gold. 1650 maybe? However, the stars look alligned once again to buy gold, or in this case GDX (Gold miners ETF). You can see the trade parameters in the chart. But this is definetely an opportunity like no other, whilst everyone is still lookin at Bitcoin, or Stocks, nobody is expecting a resurgence from gold at this point. However as we see volatility is not dead and gold does like volatile times. Even though this trade will take patience, and most likely won't payoff like crypto. The optimal upside is around a 150%, and in a mania case 400-600%. And the risk is -25%, I mean, it's a casual day in crypto or even stocks these days... Buying now is like buying BTC at 10k. Which BTW i've also advised in doing heavily. It's the same mantra as always - Buy low, sell high. However, most will do it the other way around. Also check out my other ideas, even though I don't post often. When I do it's usually when things are CHEAP or EXPENSIVE. As always, stay safe and stay liquid.
AMEX:GDXLong
by MedianLineAnalysis
Global Quad 2I want to apologize for my lack of activity the past few months. A lot has changed in the markets and a lot has evolved in my approach to reading and navigating the markets. When it comes to my process, I have added the use of multiple lenses beginning first with a fundamental macro overlay called the GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Quad Model, which give us 4 possible macroeconomic environments on a rate of change basis that we are in and could be headed towards. This model protected investors in advance of the 2020 crash with big positions in cash, bonds, and puts and it had its users in Gold and TLT from 3Q2018 until 3Q20. This model also has its users begin shorting USDs and buying commodities and Emerging markets beginning in May 2020. It is impossible to be perfect in markets and the model has made mistakes but overall it has convinced me it is a model worth using and paying attention to. Currently the GIP Model is showing the global economy already in Quad 2 and headed towards a Deep Quad 2 topping out by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Quad 2 is the macroeconomic environment where both economic growth and inflation are accelerating simultaneously. What many equity bears, bond bulls, and gold bulls are missing is that in 1Q20 the global economy hit rock bottom and there is only one direction out of an absolute rock bottom. Whether that's going sideways, a slow grind higher, or a better than expected recovery, all of those outcomes give us something that is better than what the economy was in the March of 2020. It is all about the Rate of Change, this is what the market cares about. Yes, we are in a recession, but the direction the economy is headed right now is different than the direction it was headed in at the start of 2020. On the Margin, a Biden-Kamala administration means: - Less trade war with both allies and foes. A move away from nationalism and isolationism. - Continued push for more stimulus - Giving the Federal Reserve the power to spend not just lend. Retail Central Bank accounts with digital currency stimulus checks etc.. - Possible stimulus directly from the executive branch - Republicans forget that Biden and Kamala are corporatists first and foremost and not nearly as far left as Fox news says. So, this means $DXY continues its downtrend, potentially hitting 80, 70, and maybe a new all-time low over the next 4 years. In the short-term, DXY's trend range is 91-88. Many Gold Bulls are confused why Gold and Silver haven't rallied to new highs despite DXY dropping to new lows, and the reason is because yields have risen alongside expectations for slightly better growth in 2021, higher growth expectations means investors will want to take on more risk in stocks and commodities over yield-sensitive safe havens like bonds and precious metals. AT THE SAME TIME, I still think silver miners and junior miners can do alright in Quad 2 even as the metals themselves stagnate because the amount of money the miners are making is pretty ridiculous. The miners that are well-positioned to expand production into an elevated gold price environment will have accelerating earnings which makes their stock attractive. An example of such a stock is $AUMN Golden Minerals. You really can't go wrong with anything in the commodities. Since the election energy, materials, and industrials have been great places to be. I think energy will continue to be a strong winner. That includes USOIL, Natural Gas, and Uranium. I think the agriculture complex can surprise to upside, including oranges, cocoa, coffee, and cattle. And the Covid losers, in general, will continue to outperform the Covid winners if yields continue to rise (study the US10Y) which is spurred by increases in expectations for future growth and inflation. This is why Copper has been smoking gold lately. Another way to play the steepening yield curve, is $IVOL, which is a low volatility and asymmetric way to play interest rates if you think bonds are overpriced. So to summarize: Bearish on bonds until Q2 of 2020, Bullish on global equities, Bearish on the US Dollar, Bearish on VIX, and on the margin bearish gold and neutral on silver, but bullish on some of the well-positioned gold and silver equities. Once this Quad 2 growth peaks in Q2, or maybe the model output pulls the probability forward of growth peaking in late Q1, whenever that point ends up being we will pivot towards being long gold and silver and shorting Chinese stocks, Oil, Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Financials, etc. but that will be later in 2021 with a Quad 3 or 4 environments (Quad 3 rising inflation falling growth, Quad 4 Falling inflation falling growth). Basically the bullish case is this: - Economy hit rock-bottom in March - Fed overshot monetary policy by a mile - Fiscal stimulus was like 10x the 2009 Fiscal stimulus - A lot more stim is on the way with Biden-Kamala - Biden-Kamala also means more global trade, less volatility in foreign policy - Travel restrictions become loosened as vaccine distributions take place - Highly unlikely that most of the USA and most of the world ever sees anymore covid shutdowns
TVC:US10YLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Backing Up The TruckIt seems silver is heating up. Better shine up your bullion and get ready for some crypto-like swings. From a macro perspective it looks very similar to the bullish cupping pattern on many other charts. Starting with the Fibonacci extensions measured out from the past major bull run it looks like once again, price clings to the levels like a magnet. During the 2003-2011 bull market the most notable swings range from 65 to over 100%. The pullbacks sometimes just as violent. The 50 week EMA looks like it was a relatively solid support level and will likely remain so in the future. Silver has already made it's first 75% move from off the 50 week EMA and has pulled back to the 0.236 fib. It looks like that could be the floor for now. Another 75ish% move would put it up between the 0.5 and 0.618 level around $40. It will likely take some time to get there with a lot of chop. There is still a risk of the DXY having a technical relief rally especially if new starts rolling out of 'stimulus' disappointments. This is how I've been playing it considering these risks... After it broke $20 - accumulating bits and pieces on dips, building a core long term position. Trimming and booking some profits into the larger swings. Fib targets to watch for now: 0.382 --- 31.50 0.5 --- 37.45 0.618 --- 43ish Trading is risky, don't do it. Long (6% of portfolio) Silver bullion and coins SLV, PSLV, CEF
COMEX:SI1!Long
by trade-God
1
Hummingbird Resources set to bounce from channel's bottomHummingbird Resources LSE:HUM is a gold miner, which stocks are traded on the London Stock Exchange. It benefits from a very low valuation with a PER of less than 4 at the time of publishing. After a lengthy consolidation inside a descending channel the stock price now hits the lower channel's boundary in a super oversold condition. It is time for a bounce in direction of the upper channel boundary, before expecting a channel's break to the upside.
HLong
by ChartsAndTrends
ASX:PLS Pilbara Minerals Ltd - all eye on growth ?ASX:PLS Pilbara Minerals is positioned to become a low-cost, long-term, sustainable lithium producer. During the period the Company increased its cash balance by $41.97M to $105.5M at 31 December 2019 (30 June 2019: $63.6M). a net cash inflow of $107.6M, (net of fees) related to the successful equity raising completed during the period need to follow the demand for the minerals that PLS operate in otherwise stock can correct from here.
ASX:PLS
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
Raiden to regain Daily Uptrend?Raiden Resources Limited (ASX:RDN) is an ASX copper-gold exploration company focused on discovering large scale mineral deposits in the world class Tethyan region of Eastern Europe. Raiden operates in low cost and mining friendly jurisdiction’s which remain underexplored, seeking to systematically apply modern exploration techniques to discover Tier 1 projects. Outlook: - Daily Support currently Holding after recent trend break, area of interest is at Daily Resistance and Retest of Daily Uptrend. I think the only thing that help price regain trend will be Good Drilling results. Also note the Daily GAP is unfilled just below current price. If price was to regain trend, my target would be previous high from October. If support break then GAP fill is likely. Watching. "DISCLAIMER: NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation."
ASX:RDN
by Trader_Johnni
2
GDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and RollGDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and Roll Keeping this short and simple Daily/Weekly Set-up Entry on Pre-market Gap-up or 32.25 double bottom if we drop (which i doubt) 1st Target = 38 2nd Target = 42 Hodl target = 45+ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice. Good luck, happy trading and stay chill, 2degreez
AMEX:GDXLong
by UnknownUnicorn7216011
GDX- Miners Reaching Lower?A break of the inclining support originating from Jan 2016 may trigger some selling pressure as it would complete a Head and Shoulders pattern. This may be an inverse expression to the IHS forming on the DXY. I'm about 70/30 convinced of this right now. The attached link makes a strong dollar case. The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?) What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance) Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.
AMEX:GDXShort
by ptero1492
2
Gold Still Trending Inside Bull FlagGold price has created a descending parallel channel on the chart, and since it occurred after a significant move up it is more commonly referred to as a ‘bull flag’ due to the overall structure of the move resembling that of a pole and flag. The anticipated move here if price can remain inside of the upper half of the bull flag is a continued move higher and a break through and above the upper channel line. Should that happen price will likely march back up to test the recent all-time high made on Aug 10th of $2075/oz, which I’d expect to be taken out and a new all-time high near $2200/oz be made based on other charts that will be shared later with more detailed analysis. Looking back at 2020 gold price performed extremely well, gaining roughly +43% from the March lows near $1450/oz to the August high of $2075/oz. I’d attribute most of those gains to gold being a fear hedge during times of uncertainty in markets, which we saw plenty of in 2020. Gold also by nature performs well when the underlying currency it is priced in is being inflated(money printing). With a new round of $600 checks recently having been sent out by the outgoing administration, and $1400 checks on the way from the incoming administration, gold should continue to outperform over the next few years as stimulus checks and corporate bailouts appear to be the new norm and a necessity for the economy during these unprecedented times. Regardless of the reason, money printing is inherently bullish for gold so physical and mining shares will continue to be a portion of the portfolio.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
Chinese Rare Earth Elements (REE) MinersBull Case on Chinese REE Miners: Increasing domestic pressure to restrict REE exports from China. China accounts for 60% of the world's mining of REE, China also accounts for over 80% of the world's REE refining. Refining is environmentally intensive & damaging. The US & Australia are building out domestic supply chains, but unless they are willing to fight their own environmental regulations to refine what is mined, it still has to be sent to China. Increasing global demand + restricted supply chains = higher prices = greater profits for Chinese REE miners / refiners (tracked in REMX). China is bolstering its domestic semiconductor industry due to the restrictions from the US & West, which also require REE; Chinese domestic demand for REE is going to increase to support a domestic semiconductor foundry sector. Cup & Handle pattern noted.
AMEX:REMXLong
by MichaelGoldberg