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XAUUSD: Quarterly trend updateGold almost hit the first target in the quarterly timeframe here. If it doesn't go back under this quarter's open it may keep rallying. Upside target #1 is not far, 1615.28, but it could go higher until Q2 2021 at least, reaching prices between 2094 and 2714. The technical pattern that formed while #Gold was under accumulation is called an 'explosion pattern'. This type of trend signal tends to hit targets #2 or #3 at times, so, at the very least it would imply breaking the all time high is possible, before going back down or sideways for a long time again. Note the RgMov proprietary trend analysis indicator is signaling a breakout of all time high values, ahead of price, and acting very strong, this is a good indication of the path of least resistance for #Gold. I bought back metals and miners yesterday, after the dip slowed down, I intend to let these positions run while the trend remains valid, else I would take on a moderate loss if this quarter's range is erased. Otherwise, prospect is very good in the long run for both #GDXJ and #XAUUSD. #XAGUSD is probably bullish as well, but I was a bit worried by the #XAUXAG ratio lately. Although if the trend in stocks grinds to a halt, the ratio is likely to reverse back down. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2 Bulls and 1 Bear signal, Miner wars analysisBull #1: Break out of 6 month down trend channel confirmed. Bull #2: Inverted H&S extension, with volume increasing from the price bottom. Bear signal: Bounce off the 200MA, we are still in death cross zone. Miner war fundamental facts: Difficulty is going parabolic, which means machines are being sold and installed. Miner revenue will be cut in half after halvening. CME options, futures and open interest in general is going up. They are all incentivized to see more volatility. Assumptions: It will be harder to run a mining operation after the halvening since rewards are cut in half, and difficulty is going up. Miners will have to buy machines to maintain their position. A possible 4 month long Bull trap strategy could be to drive the price up, enabling miners to use their rewards to buy more machines, in hopes that they can sustain enough hashpower to stay in operations after the halvening. After the halvening larger players will want to tank the price to break "at risk" operators, and force them to liquidate their operations, flooding the market with cheap fire sale machines. Buy the rumor Sell the fact A strategy to consider is to take a long position under 8400, with a stop loss around 7600, and a partial take profit target just under 10k or 9900, with a longer potential to extend to 11400 just before havlening. suggest to read the bitmex blog article i can haz ipo for more
Long
by pokp
Copper MinerNice bull volume on the recent rise in share price, suggesting to greater upside. Keeping the analysis simple. Increased bull volume Decrease bear volume on pullback following upside move Fib ratios align with recent levels of resistance, now to be validated as support RSI suggests a near term cool off, potentially right into the entry targets of target 1.05 - 1.09 correlating with key fib ratios Behind the scenes I have completed my due diligence on this copper miner.
MLong
by tomthetrader1
Bots / Algo / Whales & Miners Controlling Market | EOS AnalysisHere we have a different chart... This EOS chart threw me off, it was hard to read at first as it is a completely new chart for me. You see, these numbers and laters on the screen /"pairs", Altcoins or whatever they are, all basically move in exactly the same way with just a few variations. We have bots/algorithms controlling different parts of the movements and depending on which bots are affecting which token/altcoin project pair at any given time, that is what will decide how the chart will be drawn. So depending on the strength of the project, the team or the pull it has, just to pick a few of the factors that affect the chart, the chart will be drawn differently. I think there are around 5 major algorithms controlling the market and many other individual custom made ones interacting with them, as well as the public. Now that I think about it... These bots/whales/groups/algo/etc. can be miners as well for all we know... That doesn't really matter... We buy when prices are down, to sell when everything is green and up. So all the technicalities are just entertainment if you can here like me for work. We look for the charts with the lowest risks, aiming always first to win above all... Once you get used to the feeling of winning, you can decide if you want to sell at 20%, 30% or more. The trick is to get used to selling, securing/collecting profits. Because if you don't sell, everything will be gone when the market goes low. Buy when the prices are low. Sell when prices are moving up. EOS Chart Analysis We have EOS Token (EOSBTC) trading at support levels, consolidating sideways. This consolidation can lead to another drop or a move up. Which one will it be? Signals MA200 dropping fast with momentum is my signal that EOSBTC has good chances to move up. Each time we see MA200 (black line) behaving this way, prices tend to pull towards the Moving Average line indicator. Let's see how it goes. Even with all this information, we still remain open to all scenarios and always have a plan before we trade. Example If prices go lower we stop the trade at xxx price. If prices start to move higher, this is where I sell and collect profits. Enjoyed the content? Feel free to hit LIKE to show your support. This is Alan Masters. Namaste.
Education
by AlanSantana
7
$ASR Assore Ltd looking technically constructive. (Bullish)Assore Ltd was in a solid downtrend for the best part of the 2nd half of 2019, dropping from a high of just over R400 down to a low of R215. However, towards the end of 2019 we saw the stock break the downtrend line (DTL) and start to trade above the 50 dma (blue line) which was the first clue that the stock was turning the corner. During December, the stock then broke its previous swing high horizontal resistance level at approximately R262 before encountering some closing price resistance at approximately R272. In addition, the last few pullbacks on the stock have been supported by higher swing lows (UTL), which further adds to my conviction that the trend has changed on this counter. Today, the 14th Jan 2020, we are starting to see the stock clear this resistance level, and should the stock convincingly close above R272 by EOD, it looks like we have the all clear for the stock to now trade higher and tag the major resistance level at R310-R314 where we will encounter both the 50% fib retracement of the entire period, as well as the 200 day moving average (green line).
ALong
by MarcoOlevano
Silvercrest Metals: Bitcoin-like setupGood evening everyone. I hope you all are having a lovely Christmas season, prepping for a new year of continuing your pursuit of your goals and ambitions. Make sure during this time you look at investments with objectivity, removing any new year hype that may come along with this time of year. I looked at silvercrest metals about a year ago with quite a bit of disbelief and bias, similar to how many looked at bitcoin in 2016-2017. I'm not saying the results will be the same, but price action is playing out in a very similar manner. If you look across the broader market of miners and precious metal prices in general, there are just about zero miners playing out in this fashion in terms of price. Most will look at price in disbelief (like I did last year) and see an unsustainable bubble. But let's keep the fundamentals in mind... AMEX:SILV has the following under it's belt: 6.03 quick ratio - $6 in cash for every $1 dollar of debt 0.0051 Debt to equity - They have acquired assets with almost zero debt Are they profitable? No. Most miners are not pulling a profit. However, taking losses can be a tax strategy that corporations use during growth periods. So it's hard to say if their revenue minus expenses are healthy at the moment. At the end of the day, price tells all. If we break out from here on good news, there's no overhead resistance, and a lot of room to move. However, I do partially expect there to be a consolidation period here as the silver price cools off. We will see... Price tells all. I will be keeping my eye on this one and update as time goes on. If you choose to trade, use stop losses. Miners are volatile.
AMEX:SILV
by micahjmiller
IF WE CAN GET THAT DOTDO WE GET ANOTHER DOT? All I can say is that if we get the opportunity to buy the dot that would be crazy. The dot appeared 4 times in the history of BTC. Every time it was a sign that THE BOTTOM of a large recession is near. Now it is very likely that we won't be able to buy the dot. Why? Well, they only appeared at the bottom of the big cycles. Historically, once we get our dot we will see a new all-time high without getting another dot. What has to happen for the dot to appear? For the dot to appear we would need to fall approximately to the green box/line, which would be around $5000. So another 2k lower from today. I could see a rise to the orange band at around 10k followed by another big drop. All in all, it is very unlikely that we will get another dot yet not impossible and if we get it I buy it. HOW DOES THE DOT WORK? The dot is based on an improved version of the RSI which changes its input length based on volatility. THE DAILY TIMEFRAME On the daily timeframe, we would also need a little more downside movement to get another dot. ON-CHAIN DATA If we take a look at the confirmed miner capitulation period, we can see that the miner capitulation already started when the gray X appeared. Right now we are waiting for the first instance of positive momentum following the recovery of the Hash Rate which is another highly rewarding buy signal. So if we can't get the dot we should be getting the miner capitulation as a good signal.
BNC:BLX
by aamonkey
UUUU - A Levered Play on the Uranium MarketThe bear market of spot Uranium has dragged down the price of the subsequent uranium miner stocks, including UUUU . This stock in particular experienced a very steep mark down period during the time of the Fukushima reactor meltdown. This event left a bad taste in the mouth and as a result, many stepped away from using nuclear energy to the same extent to meet energy demand. In 2016, we saw a 'base' establish for the stock right around $1.35. As the market structure stands, this is the bottom end of our accumulation range. The upper end of this range is at about $2.35. Mid-2018, we saw a market expansion take place as price tested the upper end of our range, and surpass it. When price exceeded $2.35, a lot of attention and capital started to flow into the Uranium market, the market makers unloaded shares for about a year, then sent price back down into our accumulation range. Today we are seeing a lot of choppiness, as bulls and bears battle it out. Overall, I see a lot of room for growth in this sector, especially during a time of clean energy promotion. I believe nuclear energy will be the answer to the demand for clean energy. I have a price target of $5.28 by 2022. An entry at $1.35 would give an incredible R/R of 3.94/0.0064. An upside of 400% and a downside of about 10% if market structure breaks. Beware of the volatility, and search for a safe entry.
AMEX:UUUULong
by micahjmiller
BTC MINERS' WIN + WIN STRATEGYBitfinex longs at ATH level and keep climbing. -What happened before at bear market 2018? (Number 1 Situation) When price at $6000 level some miners closed their mining systems because mining was not profitable enough for them. After they closed their system hash ribbons indicator warn us like " Capitulation " ( It means that, hash power that generating from all miners has decline trend.) In other words 30 SMA - 60 SMA are death crossing. Important thing here ; even miners turned off their systems BITFINEX LONGS were growing. At the same time price found bottom before as you see. I am assuming; some miners were sold as much as they can and they dumped the price while they opened long on BITFINEX. (Win + Win) First Win : They have good long position as you see price at $3100-$3500 Second Win : Some miners had to close their machines and they had relative more BTC award from mining. -What i am expect now? (Number 2 Situation) Almost same situation here as you can see. Price is dropping, BITFINEX longs are growing, Hash ribbons showing us " Capitulation " I am assuming that they are dumping price again but they are secure their BTC value at BITFINEX to opening a long. They get lower entry for long. Small miners are closing their machines because they know that its not profitable enough right now. As a conclusion ; I am thinking as a miner, i can sell as much as i can from spot exchange to dump price. And opening a lower long while this is happening. And shakeout weak miners as much as i can. Try to reduce difficulty to get more benefit. SO, its not mean that we found our bottom yet. Still lower price on the table but one more good thing as bull, After miners run out of BTC, they won't sell until halvening. And i am assuming that price will growth. Nothing here financial advice. Follow and like for more. Thanks.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSLong
by ShinjiOsako
6
The news is all bad for the economy, good for goldThe economic news this week is pretty much all bad, with payroll data, manufacturing data, and non-manufacturing data all showing a broad slowdown across the whole economy. The dollar is showing real weakness amidst the slowdown. Both the dollar's weakness and the return of fear to the economy should be good for gold. Here are the critical levels to watch in the dollar. A break below the channel/trend line would signal an upward breakout for gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Simple Bitcoin Ultimate Forecast into 2020Capitulation is basically when Miners stop mining and sell some of their bitcoins to keep operations going. However Capitulation is more likely to occur at the end of every annual year now due to regulation and taxes. It is easier to calculate loss/profit by shutting or slowing the network down and washing your hands so to speak. Power consumption costs are higher during the winter time as well. So with that said the ultimate guide and advice I am giving myself is to play it short, wait for capitulation cycle to open and and buy all in as the capitulation cycle is closing. This chart is an emulation scenario of the next "possible" 50% drop ***I am not a FINRA registered agent or broker (As of Yet) and this is not financial advice, Please always do your own research, As Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset.***
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ILL_Midas
6
Miners' Capitulation into Bitcoin Halving - Macro AnalysisMiners' Capitulate into Bitcoin Halving On a macro level the Empire is currently building the 3rd Super Star Destroyer with Death Star capabilities to jump even further through hyperspace. There are 3 scenarios: 1. blue (most likely) 2. green 3. red Miners Capitulation In a nutshell - undercapitalized miners panic sell because difficulty is too high and mining is no longer profitable, price dumps, longs get squeezed, stop losses cascade, more miners sell. The capitulation is signaled by a bearish MA crossover on the Hash Ribbons indicator. Last time a Hash Ribbon inversion took place in Nov 2018, when Bitcoin crashed from $6000 to $3000. The inversion of the Hash Ribbons can lead to a 30-50% drop in the following days, with weeks and months of consolidation prior to an eventual breakout. If capitulation occurs, subsequent positive momentum (bullish MA crossover) could be taken as a BTC buy signal. formal cause of the dump: major inflow of 1st spend BTC from some unknown miner's wallet. _______________________________ Basics of Bitcoin Mining: - Bitcoin has cycles/epochs. Halving affects miners' revenue in each cycle and therefore the price. This is by design. Hash rate and difficulty adjustments ensure system operation and stability during a cycle. Price converges to a median of a triangle before each halving. It's like having a built in gyroscope. Difficulty adjusts both up and down automatically to counter the Hash Rate increase/decrease. - Miner's goal is to sell bitcoins at max price and buy new equipment at low price to stay in the game. Therefore miners are incentivized to gather in large pools to be able to control hash power and the market by increasing/slowing down supply production. Built-in scarcity or artificially limited supply production causes the price to go up and attracts new investors - basics of supply/demand. Miners can halt all operations and cause the price to collapse. They can also dump 1 mil coins and crash the market at any given time or kill other coins with compatible protocol using 51% attack. They lobby for changes in the bitcoin protocol. - Bitcoin is essentially a math formula, it's a sort of self-propelled pyramid scheme that is propagated by miners using investors' money as fuel. It will likely converge and stabilize around a single value or collapse in the long run. You can use it while it works. - It's a pyramid because to be able to cash out your coins you must have a counter party - someone with fiat to buy bitcoins from you. You won't be able to sell if there's no buyer. Only the first few will. The rest will become bagholders. Or you will sell at 10% of the value. You don't notice this when there's enough liquidity in the market and price goes up which attracts occasional buyers. It's much harder to cash out when price goes down and no one wants to buy and people have to wait for weeks. Those always in profit are service providers that charge fees and control liquidity pools. People with lots of coins usually just donate them or try to run their own exchanges - this is the only way to get cash for coins and fees from trading/listings. - that's why HODLing is pointless in the long run. Whales need lots of bitcoins only as leverage to be able to trade large positions, shake out the market and cash out occasionally. They can grow capital because they are hedged. - miners need to sell bitcoins to upgrade the equipment and pay for electricity to be able to continue working. Their profit margin is very small, it reduces exponentially and at certain difficulty levels they go bankrupt like most traders. In the long run 1-2 mining pools will control the whole market. It will become a centralized monopoly. And you don't want to become the market because no one will buy from you. Everyone will just switch to a new coin. Check US history of oil prices. The only miners that are always in profit are mining equipment manufacturers. They get cash from sales and they know that their machines will become obsolete. - 1 BTC = 1000000 USDT price is possible but no one will be able to cash it out, because there will be no liquidity at such price levels and no sane banks to process it. It is possible because USDT will cost a fraction of USD. Attempting to withdraw at 100% value will cause exchanges and tether to collapse. And there's 2x more tether now with ERC tokens. - Mining manufacturers, exchanges and corrupt governments will pay large fees to shady banks for coin to USD processing to maintain the vicious cycle and attract new investors. This will work while not everyone wants to withdraw. - in the future all exchanges will list BTC price in satoshis because common man will be able to buy only a small fraction of BTC such as 10^-8 decimals - in the future miners will rise fees, fee = 1 BTC or 50% of transaction value could become the new norm. People won't be able to move coins for many reasons. - The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more - Satoshi Nakamoto Check out links: Stock to Flow model: digitalik.net www.lookintobitcoin.com https://bytetree.com, featured charts, generation 1 on-chain miners 1st spend chart Bitcoin Log Regression: www.youtube.com How The Economic Machine Works: www.youtube.com USDT supply www.tokenanalyst.io QUANDL is huge database that stores a lot of statistical and economical data from all over the world. Free quotes from QUANDL are available on TradingView: QUANDL:BCHAIN/DIFF - bitcoin difficulty QUANDL:BCHAIN/MIREV - miners' daily revenue QUANDL:BCHAIN/NADDU - unique bitcoin addresses QUANDL:BCHAIN/TOTBC - total bitcoins in circulation QUANDL:BCHAIN/BLCHS - api.blockchain size P. S. Gabening intensifies. Alyx is here. It's been only 12 years but feels like yesterday.
BCHAIN:MIREV
by RagingRocketBull