$GDX Gold Miners in bull flag, testing rising channel support. Price should move up from these levels as rising channel support holds and price breaks out of bull flag.
Miners
We Are Skirting on the Edges of a Bitcoin Miner CapitulationBitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation.
Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin.
The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator.
For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed.
However, until we see continued Hash Rate growth, and separation of these Ribbons, we cannot be sure.
This is one of the most important indicators to be watching right now regarding Bitcoin's health… as when miners hurt, the market will hurt too.
Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate GrowthThe current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin.
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has been below 0.5% for over 7 days now, without a cross-over (capitulation event) occurring.
However, it appears as though miners are moving cautiously, and may be struggling between two tough choices:
1) To commit more resources to Hashing (and trying to accumulate more Bitcoin) ... OR...
2) To cut back Hashing power and risk missing a major Bitcoin Bull Run.
In attempt to plot some "similar" historic scenarios, I have flagged in red where "growth" was historically less than 2% for at least 1 week:
OCCURRENCE: DAYS TO CAPITULATION
Apr 2012: 2
Dec 2012: 2
Dec 2014: 2
Apr 2015: 21
Nov 2016: No Capitulation*
Oct 2018: 5
Mar 2019: No Capitulation*
May 2019: No Capitulation*
Result: in 5/8 cases a capitulation occurred within 1 month.
This suggests there is roughly a 60% chance of a capitulation occurring in the next month.
However, this result should be taken as a GUIDE ONLY.
10 years of data, and 8 similar data points, is FAR from an exact science. We only have 10 years of Bitcoin history to work with, it is imprecise, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Notes:
* Capitulation occurred >> 2 months away
** I excluded any occurrences within 2 months after a capitulation
Hard Not to Go Long on Gold Miner's ETFChart says it all. Descending (bull) wedge ready to explode higher.
Watch JNUG for a trend line breakThe junior gold miners' leverage ETF has been making a long-term downward trend line since September as the dollar showed strength and gold showed weakness. Surprisingly, gold and JNUG have stayed in their downtrends despite dollar weakness throughout the month of October.
That's presumably because the dollar index, now at 97.48, has a support trend line around 96.86. Gold and JNUG will break upward out of their downtrends if the dollar breaks downward through that support.
It probably won't happen before the Fed meeting, although conceivably it could. Futures traders are pricing the probability of a Fed rate cut at 94%, and yesterday's headlines included "The Fed Just Printed More Money Than Bitcoin’s Entire Market Cap." The dollar is up today, but only because it's making a technical pullback from oversold territory. I expect it to touch its support line soon.
Assuming the futures markets aren't completely out to lunch, we should get a rate cut next Wednesday and then our breakout should come.
This is one of the prettiest weekly charts I've seen... JNUGMassive, textbook 2x bottom with equally symmetrical tight consolidation into a major trend reversal confirmation... Look at that volume....
Major target levels:
$124 and $170
Minor target levels:
$72, $82, $89
JDST long ideaSure looks like a break out to me. Pick up some JDST as gold and miners drop into the next ICL.
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver Miners on Metals Pullback It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities.
At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally breaking lower, silver looks poised to outperform on this next leg up. I am not actively shorting the metals, merely patiently waiting for this opportunity to accumulate even more shares in my list of miners.
However, given the current state of affairs around the world, it is entirely possible this pullback never comes and that we move higher from here. I am hedged against that possibility by being presently invested and continuously adding to my investments in junior & small cap miners. In my opinion, if this scenario plays out where gold does not correct first, it will ultimately not be ideal for gold long-term and will likely result in a painful crash in the metals.
Better Miner ETFHere’s an option to capitalize on miners other than the dated GDX and GDXJ. Trading around two standard deviations lower than the mean after a correction from gold’s move above $1500.
Gold-Short model GLL low @ 09/2021 - JNUG Bullish next 24 monthsKeep studying & tweaking GLL (Gold Short Model) to try to understand maximum peak in Gold/Miners.
Continue to see 3 hour brschultz model place optimal peak in gold miners in Sept 2021.
Bottom in S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, & Real Estate in Late 2021 as well.
brschultz
Maybe I'm Wrong, I thought the 20 year gold cycle would RocketMaybe I'm Wrong, I thought the 20 year gold cycle would Rocket
XAU Gold Miners - Short Term Peak @ Late October Fed MtgXAU Gold Miners - Short Term Peak @ Late October Fed Mtg
Beware a Buy FailMarket could not make a new high, on gold or in GDX. Another sell signal that is reliable for a pullback. COT window dressing perhaps. Be careful
EGO trend reversal, looks very bearishEGOs run seems to be over for now, it had produced a continuation gap (bearish candlesticks), but that alone isn't enough to make a confirmation. After today with the 10% drop on shelf offering news.. it formed a bearish engulfing candle. Bearish engulfing also alone by itself is not enough to say bearish also.. so you look for volume confirmation. It seems we have that Double up those two candlestick patterns, along with gold making a pullback after breaking 1500... seems bearish too me. Trimmed position yesterday and will most likely close positions totally, or buy some short term puts. News seems to be coming with Skouries permit, so if that drops soon then its game on again. GLTA
Gold potential correctionGold/miners to pull back? Long term bullish but a correction should be welcomed by bulls
$gdx $gdxj $nugt $dust $jnug $jdst
