Watch JNUG for a trend line breakThe junior gold miners' leverage ETF has been making a long-term downward trend line since September as the dollar showed strength and gold showed weakness. Surprisingly, gold and JNUG have stayed in their downtrends despite dollar weakness throughout the month of October.
That's presumably because the dollar index, now at 97.48, has a support trend line around 96.86. Gold and JNUG will break upward out of their downtrends if the dollar breaks downward through that support.
It probably won't happen before the Fed meeting, although conceivably it could. Futures traders are pricing the probability of a Fed rate cut at 94%, and yesterday's headlines included "The Fed Just Printed More Money Than Bitcoin’s Entire Market Cap." The dollar is up today, but only because it's making a technical pullback from oversold territory. I expect it to touch its support line soon.
Assuming the futures markets aren't completely out to lunch, we should get a rate cut next Wednesday and then our breakout should come.
Miners
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver Miners on Metals Pullback It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities.
At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally breaking lower, silver looks poised to outperform on this next leg up. I am not actively shorting the metals, merely patiently waiting for this opportunity to accumulate even more shares in my list of miners.
However, given the current state of affairs around the world, it is entirely possible this pullback never comes and that we move higher from here. I am hedged against that possibility by being presently invested and continuously adding to my investments in junior & small cap miners. In my opinion, if this scenario plays out where gold does not correct first, it will ultimately not be ideal for gold long-term and will likely result in a painful crash in the metals.
Gold-Short model GLL low @ 09/2021 - JNUG Bullish next 24 monthsKeep studying & tweaking GLL (Gold Short Model) to try to understand maximum peak in Gold/Miners.
Continue to see 3 hour brschultz model place optimal peak in gold miners in Sept 2021.
Bottom in S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, & Real Estate in Late 2021 as well.
brschultz
EGO trend reversal, looks very bearishEGOs run seems to be over for now, it had produced a continuation gap (bearish candlesticks), but that alone isn't enough to make a confirmation. After today with the 10% drop on shelf offering news.. it formed a bearish engulfing candle. Bearish engulfing also alone by itself is not enough to say bearish also.. so you look for volume confirmation. It seems we have that Double up those two candlestick patterns, along with gold making a pullback after breaking 1500... seems bearish too me. Trimmed position yesterday and will most likely close positions totally, or buy some short term puts. News seems to be coming with Skouries permit, so if that drops soon then its game on again. GLTA