GDX -Waiting for a buy setupWe are getting closer and closer to an important buying opportunity in gold miners.
Though yesterday we almost tagged the 200 SMA and bounced I still don't see that buying opportunity what i like to see at the gold miners bottom.
At the beginning of today's trading we broke above yesterday's high which is usually a buy signal but after a few hours of trading we gave back all the gains and closed in the red.
I think we are quite close to the bottom in days - 4-5 days only - but these last few days can be extremely scary as we print the cycle lows.
First of all I dont see the volume spike what usually occurs at these intermediate bottoms:
The other thing that we stiill have a gap between 20.5 and 20.8 which pulling down price like a magnet:
Today was the 5th day since we broke below an important level at 21.41 and usually these breakdowns lasting for 7-8 trading days:
Today was day 5 of the breakdown.
So I would wait with the buying till next week in the miners as we might have 3-4 red days ahead in the upcomong trading sessions.
Miners
GDX Gold Miners First Take Profit Reached, Still Long Short TermThis is a continued trade based on my previous post. This was posted on my blog yesterday night
We have a big week ahead of us with potential updates on several important political event, along with some important economic data being released throughout the week. The news that we should keep our eyes on are updates on the trade deal, and vote outcomes of the Brexit extension set to be voted on Wednesday. US and China are in what seems like the final stretch of signing a trade deal that could help boost the world economy, however we can’t discount the multiple occasions where US trade reps admitted that there are still issues which need to be resolved before a deal can be made. As long as investors are still in the dark, markets will likely trade in a range as the speculation continues.
Wednesday is looking like a big day in terms of catalysts that could drive the market in one direction, at least in the very short term. We have the decision on the Brexit extension, as well as CPI numbers coming out in the US. These indicators and events could help Gold break out of its recently tight range and make a strong push in one direction. As previously mentioned in my daily posts, Gold has been consolidating at the bottom end of its descending triangle, meaning it’s found support and more likely to breakout to the upside than downside. As of writing this, Gold is up 0.4% overnight so far and I believe it’ll push up to at least the downward trendline.
The US dollar is still relatively flat, and looks to be consolidating as well near the top end of the ascending triangle. My current view is still that it’ll likely trend down after some more sideways trading, however my thesis depends on the price action this week so stay tuned for my daily updates.
Yields are starting to slip as investors wait for more catalysts, with CPI numbers and the Fed minutes being the most important ones this week.
Gold miners will likely continue its short-term trend upwards given the bullish sign from Gold. While I am bullish on miners in the short term, I will be actively taking profits as it hits the previous resistances marked on the chart. My medium term view is still unclear and depends on further macro development and more concrete directional news flow. I will also be watching the price action throughout the week to gauge sentiment that might be helpful in my predictions.
Have a great trading week everyone!
New Gold: interesting counter trend playAlthough the Precious Metals Miners are a bit of a mixed bag, there are a couple of interesting stocks for an aggressive long setup. One of the opportunities is New Gold (NGD).
Strong bullish divergence in combination with sector outperformance (near-term) suggests a fierce recovery move is getting under way. A bounce well into the CLoud resistance is the least to expect: 1.26 and 1.48 are the first levels to watch out for. Of course there is elevated risk, but with stops below 0.75 the 'gamble' is worth it.
Near term trend: positive
Long term trend: negative
Outlook: strong recovery in down trend, positive
Strategy: counter trend/recovery long-entry
Support: 0.75 / 0.69-
Resistance: 1.26 / 1.48 / 1.76+
Kirkland lake blowoff phase Update from January.
Seems like Kirkland lake's announcement of 1 million ounces was enough to get the investors to keep rushing in and create support where there once was resistance.
If you are like me and it was enough to keep yourself into this play we now may want to stick around a little longer.
There are two ways to play this:
- Wait till the support line gets broken to the downside.
- Wait till blow off leads to valuations significantly above support line. At the time I would say it would be significant if we see a move above 50 CAD.
Small Cap Miner Play on PM Price MovmentPrecious Metals markets have been doing well these past few weeks.
GC1!
SI1!
A lot of the miners have already made their gains and caught up with the market, but some have not.
Last night and this morning I have been searching for small cap miners that are playing catch-up with some upside.
I found this beauty on my stock screener.
USAS has just broken above it's 200 Day MA and this triangle pattern I have drawn. It seems like a great set up to me and I am going to take my chances on it assuming PM prices hold for a few days/week and this little guy ends up trying to catch up with the rest of the market.
Note that I have no extensive knowledge on the company fundamentally. Just looking at price.
Pure Gold Mining $PGM.v nearing breakoutPure Gold Mining $PGM.v has been consolidating for 2 years and may finally be approaching a breakout. Lots of fundamental catalysts ahead including a resource update and a definitive feasibility study due out in January. 10,000m drill program underway to test gap between 8 Zone and Russet South, which could potentially add significant ounces to the resource. Insiders and strategic investors have bought in this range and should continue to support price, thus a great R/R entry.
ABX Barrick Gold Corp. BUYBarrick Gold (ABX) Q1 Earnings In Line, Sales Beat Estimates. Technicals confirm bullish sentiment. RSI downtrend broke above. V bottom on higher TF. Coppock heading to break 0 line. FIB retracement 50-61.8%. Recently price of GOLD have stabilized finishing the downward movement since 2012. Expectation for appreciation in metal prices. Long-term BUY. Good Luck
Sirius Minerals gapped through 200 EMA (bearish), but...On the daily chart: SXX gapped down through its 200 EMA, a bearish sign
BUT found support at 23.5 on it's weekly 200 EMA
Stochastic on daily chart is trending down and could result in another decline
Also filling the gap at 31.72 could trigger fresh round of selling.
Let's see what happens.
SLV - Long Term Buy and HoldI have purchased a large tranche of SLV to begin building up a long term position in the very beaten-up precious metals sector. I am not convinced the bottom is in quite yet but we are likely close. I have begun seeing articles about how gold/silver investing is dead and some articles go as far as saying the price of PMs will never recover. Price extremes, extreme statements in news articles, extreme positioning, and capitulation by the perma-bulls often mark the beginning of a bottom. Why I have chose silver is due to the Gold/Silver ratio now being towards the top of a century long extreme.
Let me re-iterate that PM's could continue to bottom for the next few months and correct even deeper but as a long term buy-and-hold strategy, any future price drops will offer opportunities to average down. My time horizon for this trade could be 5-10 years or longer. Once price does rebound and begins rallying, owning the stock outright will give me an opportunity to sell covered calls against it and begin generating consistent returns and lower my cost basis even further.
Short term short ABN, Long term long.618 fib was broken so the .50 fib gives a potential entry of .30 for a long position