Update on my previous copper ideasDespite Copper falling 38% from its ATHs, we still haven't seen deflation, even though inflation seems to have peaked for now. The inflation story doesn't seem to be over; even inflation moderates and goes close to or below 2%. The big problem right now is that the Copper inventories are extremely low and that the demand for Copper seems to be increasing because of all the green technologies that are being developed. Therefore despite the high-interest rates and the drop in the money supply globally (reduction in overall liquidity, along with a strong dollar), it is possible to see Copper rally higher from here. With the recent drop in the dollar and the potential peak in the USD and short-term interest rates, the market may have bottomed.
Of course, this isn't the only reason the market has bottomed. Copper fell a lot, and it hit critical support. They seem to have bottomed at their previous significant highs along with Silver and reversed the upside. I don't think the final bottom is in, although it could be. In my opinion, the market is heading towards 4$ in the short term. Still, in a long time, it is directed towards 2.7$, and maybe even towards 1.6-1.9$ if we get the short-term deflationary collapse, I expect. After the failure, I think new ATHs will come, as Central Banks and Governments globally will print insane amounts of money to save their economies from collapsing.
Miners
RIO TINTO Chart 2/2 The Bear CaseAnother take on $RIO this time following the price action that gold took between 1978 and 2012. Obviously today markets are far more efficient, algorithmic based, real time information, broader markets, etc. So it should take shorter to play out. But still it's quite significant volatility here in price move. If you are faithful, and can stomach potential sharp downturn (bonds spike, delfationary shock, etc.) the reward should be magnificent. Bear short term, super bullish long term. In this chart. See part 1 for the short term bull case.
RIO TINTO Chart 1/2 The Bullish CaseI will look at this chart from a bull and bear bias perspective. In part 1, we see a broken symmetric triangle on the macro (to the upside) that has broken out, retest upper triangle, and nicely forming a channel upwards. Short term we are inside an ascending broadening wedge, which should be bullish. Targeting the top of the intermediate channel trend. Strong support on the 20 year moving average 80 SMA on 3M chart. Targets align with macro fib retracement. In part 2 we will analyze the bear case.
GDX coiling againIt has been a while since it would be even worth to look into GDX, and I think it is about time... still early, but good to plan ahead and see if it is working out as projected.
GDX (Gold miners) mounted a good recovery but stalled on a trend line and retracement is likely to see 27, else 25.
The technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) are turning bullish, but not just ripe yet. Expecting a higher low about 25-27 (red ellipse is the optimistic target; also the 62% retracement level) in early to mid January 2023. Bouncing off the 23-week EMA would be a good indicator that the projection is in line.
So... being optimistic for a comeback, but until the pullback is apparent, sitting on my hands first.
Happy Boxing Day!
Barrick: Hibernation 🐻Although Barrick is currently showing some upwards tendencies, we're expecting the course to drop further below the support line around $12.65 to finish the yellow wave (2) within the yellow target zone, before heading above the $12.65-mark to carry on with an upwards trend. If Barrick urges to surpass the resistance line at $26.07, our alternative scenario will be activated, which would push the course even higher above the $31.22-mark.
First Majestic: Time to Say GoodbyeFirst Majestic is currently paving its pathway to leave the turquoise target zone between $6.89 and $12.36 for good, to wander above the resistance line at $19.41 and resume the upwards trend further North. Our alternative scenario displays a 40% chance for the course to drop below the support line at $5.30 which would be continued with a downwards slope around the $2.91-mark to complete the dark green wave alt. .
S2F BTC 2WHaving kept a close eye this last 2 years on the Stock to Flow for BTC, I had noticed each time the S2F spiked on the 2W chart, a large move in price action shortly follows.
As BTC broke the recent 17.5 bottom and formed a lower bottom at 15.5, there was a significant spike in the S2F data as shown on the chart.
Awaiting more data with the S2F Model Value to spike as it has many times previously.
This could be seen as some relief and good news for the miners.
Happy Trading!
Speculative Bearish Entry on SIlver Miner's Upcoming EarningsAG is sitting at the supply zone of this potential Bear Flag and has been once rejected from the 200 Day Moving Average. AG now reports earnings in 2 days and i have bearish bets on those earnings in the form of multiple April 21st PUT Options at the Strike Price of $8 and now will be hoping to see a square-up of the range lows.
PAAS - Significant Upside Possible from this levelIt's hard stepping in front of a falling knife but one thought continues to ring in my brain, that is the thought that one day, the precious metals miners may replace the banks as new monetary systems may be backed with real assets. The dollar has been screaming higher as the Fed continues to raise rates. It appears that a top in the low 5% range is being accepted by the markets. The dollar's strength is moderating. Additionally, the company pays a variable dividend which may reap great rewards when precious metals prices advance.
Fresnillo: ReasonableFresnillo is back to being reasonable and – in accordance with our expectations – has moved downwards again. Now, it should keep up this drive to make it below the support at GBP 456.60 and thus into the turquoise zone between GBP 473.60 and GBP 250.00, where it should finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that Fresnillo could escape above the resistance at GBP 997.60, thus triggering further ascent above the next mark at GBP 1379.
October 8 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to the latest nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in September, above expectations of 250,000. Bitcoin is down 2.64% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $19,323.16. The largest cryptocurrency dropped alongside the traditional equity market, because the report from BLS shows the U.S. jobs market remains strong, which suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot from its hawkish interest rate hikes. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 79.6% chance for a 75 basis point rate hike in November, up from 56.5% just a week ago.
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
Bitcoin Miner Argo Blockchain Raises $27M to Ease Liquidity Pressures
Bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain has raised $27 million by issuing 87 million shares to ease liquidity pressures. The company’s chief executive, Peter Wall, said the combination of rising energy prices and falling bitcoin prices hit Argo’s profitability, leading to a cash crunch. Additionally, the company raised $7 million through the sale of 3,400 Antminer S19s.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation.
My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend.
What this means is..
Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery.
That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011)
My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way.
Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so.
Follow my research.
Newmont: Humpty Dumpty 🥚🧱Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again .
Well, Newmont shouldn’t have such a great fall that it can’t be put together again. Tough, just like the egg headed character from the British nursery rhyme, it is sitting on the big yellow wall between $42.50 and $23.41, in which it should drop to finish wave (2) in yellow. Afterwards, Newmont should turn upwards, heading for the resistance at $86.37.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Knock on Wood…🪵… or rather: Knock on the resistance at $45.42. Thrice, Agnico has rapped on this mark, without surmounting it, however. Now, the bears are back in charge and should continue to drag the price below the support at $31.03. There, Agnico should enter the yellow zone between $19.10 and $10.08 to finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that the bulls could intervene and drag the price above the resistance at $74.50, thus enforcing further ascent above $89.16 as well.
The GPU mining token of choice! Opinion:
- GPU mining token of choice
- Decentralized at the roots, being a BTC fork of the code.
- NFT marketplaces
GPU miners that do not intend on stopping after the merge, are likely to move towards RVN. This will grant RVN with a stronger and more decentralized network. In terms of hashpower it is likely to be seen as a network of choice. Very bullish on it long term. #GPUMINERS
#LONGTERMULTRABULLISH
Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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$XAUUSD Gold going to plummet due to $DXY dollar wrecking ballPlease check out my analysis on DXY I did which explains the time tables and variables. If I was any other currency (but Swiss) - I'd be buying gold and silver (physical). Your central banks will print away to appease the plebs as they start to install a ecurrency social credit score system. If I was American I'd wait a bit to buy gold and silver at least if you're going to do it - buy half physical now, buy some puts on some miners (they fall harder when gold falls) and then use any dry powder to buy more physical.
I anticipate that there will also be nationalization of resources and sectors - so mining stocks won't be a good go to unless you're investing in $NEM, since America will be the last to nationalize. Some countries may just tax windfall profits like they're considering with oil companies. This would drop the stock so physical is the only way to go. If you make money on the puts, use that also to buy more physical.
Fresnillo: Attention SeekerBulls and bears are currently both angling for Fresnillo’s attention. We still expect the bears to win, though. They should grab Fresnillo and take it below the support at GBP 456.60, pulling it into the turquoise zone between GBP 473.60 and GBP 250 to finish wave v in magenta as well as wave Z in turquoise and wave (2) in yellow. However, there is indeed a 32% chance that the bulls could be victorious instead and push Fresnillo above the resistance at GBP 997.60, thus eliciting further ascent above GBP 1379.
GDX suffering a low periodGDX, the gold miners ETF which once had a lot of potential is now in the doldrums. Having hit 41 in April 2022, it had almost halved within 4 months. Recently, an attempt to consolidate and rebound is seeing a lot of challenges. First, the Gold prices are in a bear trend, secondly, rising interest rates hurt the miners, third, the weak equities market also affect the gold miners.
The GDX weekly chart has in the past couple of weeks attempted a rebound, but the past week pretty much wiped all gains out. This move mellowed the technical indicators and it is less than ideal to be a tad bullish at all.
The daily chart obviously has technically bearish indicators crossing down with momentum.
Overall, very likely to take out the last low.
Nothing much except the obvious... bearish
$BTC drop imminent? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
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