NYSE - SwingTrading: updated WatchlistS tock Market reversed lower after key test, partially fueled by more worries about the economy
Apple (AAPL) plans to slow hiring and spending in some divisions next year which concerned traders yesterday.
Monday's weak session was another reminder that many sellers and lots of overhead supply is still putting pressure on the markets.
What should Swing Traders do now?
Sitting in a healthy cash position with limited exposure to individual stocks makes the most sense at this point. When institutional money starts coming in again, that's when you'll see breakouts of stockos on our watchlist really working and following-through. Until then, sitting mainly in cash with only few pilot positions in your portfolio is strongly advised.
Continue to do your homework and be ready when the next bull market starts - which will definitiely happen sooner or later.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
All stocks on our watchlist fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points. Only the best stocks make it onto our watchlists.
Minervini
NYSE - SwingTrading: Buy Signal LIThe stock LI (Li Auto) on our watchlist crossed a low risk enty point and generated a buy signal, we have added LI to the JS-TechTrading portfolio.
SL is less than 5% (SL at 37.05), win target is > 10%.
LI has a high relative strentgh (IBD style) and broke out of a volatility contraction pattern earlier today under high volume. Until now, the price / volume action is great.
We have recommended to open an LI position to our clients in real-time earlier today.
NYSE - SwingTrading: updated WatchlistThe futures of the major market indices rose Sunday night which is a promising indication that the current little rally might turn into something bigger.
Attached is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
All stocks on our watchlist fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points. Only the best stocks make it onto our watchlists.
In the current bear market, it is highly important to look for stocks with increasing relative strength - those might be the leaders during the next bull market cycle.
NYSE: Risk Model for Swing-TradersStock Market Ramps Higher on Friday, July 15th, fueled by strong earnings and economic data
Stronger-than-expected retail sales in June fueled positive sentiment in the stock market. But Wall Street also got more good news when some inflation components of the Empire State manufacturing index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey eased inflation concerns.
Also, the stock market responded well to the higher than expected CPI inflation report last week. This indicates that the market has already discounted a lot. UNless we do see a major depression type of environment, we are likely clode to a bottom. More time might be needed to digest the recent bear market declines.
Now it is highly important to watch your stock lists. New leaders of an upcoming bull market bottom first, sometimes months ahead of the major market indices.
Our risk model for swing traders show an average risk rating. Swing-Traders should try their first pilot buys, exposure should be in the range of 25%. If stocks in your own portfolio start working, decrease risk quickly by adjusting your stop losses. Use your gains to finance the additional risk of new buys. Overall exposure should currently not exceed 50%, even if your pilot buys are working.
Risk Model
- new 52w highs vs lows and # of stocks abive/below their 200d MA is still in the red zone. Much more improvement is needed here efore we cann call it an easy dollar environment again
- up / down volume is the first critical indicator which is in the green zone now. A very encouraging signal that we may have reached the bottom
- the contrarian indicators margin debt and bulls vs bears also confirm that a new bull market might be close
US Market: Risk Model and WatchlistOur risk model significantly improved versus last week . The major market indices could accomplish a so called follow-through day (>2% gains under elevated volume) which is a very good indication with regards to the current health of the market.
Overall risk can be described as average versus high - very high in the last few weeks and months.
Swing-traders can start to open their first pilot-positions. If you see some traction in your own portfolio, exposure can be increased. Always think risk first and only increase exposure and risk based on the heels of success. By doing that, you will never have large drawdowns and you will have highest exposure when market conditions are in favour of your personal swing-trading strategy.
Some details of the risk model:
- new 52w highs vs lows significantly improved last week
- up/down volume confirms the mprving health of the overall market
- Advance-decline-lin in a new uptrend which is a very positive
- contrarian indicators like bulls vs bears and margin debt would enable a new leg up in the market.
Also, the performance of stocks on our watchlist has been positive last week on balance. This is also a very good infication.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
Buy signals are being triggered when the price moves through the alarm set point. Always trade with the trend.
All stocks on our watchlist meet the criteria of Minervini's Trend Template.
US Market Sentiment - Risk ModelThe Ukraine war, ongoing lockdowns in China and associated disruption of global supply chains as well as upcoming inflation are key reasons for the high risk in the current market.
Swing-Traders should act with highest caution and be mostly in cash for quite some time now.
All technical indicators in our risk model are showing high risk, the overall risk rating is very high.
At one point, we will reach the bottom of this significant market correction. It is worthwhile looking at some of the contrarian market indicators:
- bulls vs bears: the current market sentiment is very bearish, with the bears at 43% and the bulls at 28%. We have seen the biggest opportunities in markets which have been characterized like that.
- Margin debt turned negative. We have seen that for the last time in 2020 during the Covid-correction.
Swing-Traders should never trade using these contrarian indicator only but it is worthwhile continuing to look for stock setups and low risk entry points. Either start with paper trading or open a few very small pilot trades. Once you see soe traction in your open trades, you see the risk model improving again and you see the number of stock setups increasing - then it is time to increase risk and exposure.
Until that happens, risk needs to be managed very tightly, stay disciplined!
Our updated watchlist shows only a very few stocks which could be tradable at the moment:
www.tradingview.com
All stocks on our watchlist meet the criteria of Minervini's Trend Template.
Possible breakout to new All Time High from VCP characteristicSWCH shows a possible setup to new ATH (all time high) from a VCP characteristic. It is a relatively new name (IPOed in 2017) and since 2019 showing some real strength - last few days look like a consolidation at the top - no pump and dump. Key level is 31.80. To make the picture look better - i am missing a below average volume - sadly it is above average - so caution is advised.
To train your eye - look back at 'cheat' VCP as we saw it back in March - and at that time we had nice volume compression.
So ... you can keep it on your radar - though as always MANAGE RISK!
A cheat entry from VCP ....?Here comes another possible VCP entry based on VCPSniper filtering. I do like how we see the higher lows, 50SMA is turning around, 200SMA continues its upward move. 64.76 is the key price point however be aware of the wider market context we are seeing now so manage your risk accordingly.
Gold and precious metals miners are setting up ... !I am not GOLD bull - i read charts. Feels like the price action is confirming what we see happening outside of markets.
i recently read a report that someone was secretly buying gold at around 1800 and putting it aside - based on yahoo search- here is the copy of it:
(Bloomberg) -- Spot gold is again bobbing along near $1,800 an ounce, as it has been since mid-2020. The stickiness of that level, particularly as fundamentals turned more bearish, suggests there’s a big buyer somewhere in these waters. (...) That would suggest that whoever is buying is able to buy in scale, leave little footprint in the market and then take delivery and store the metal in secure, invisible vaults. And that points strongly toward a sovereign buyer.
Today i share with you few tickers and price action on XAU.
A possible miners VCP set up VCP characteristics in place ...
- above key lines
- first contraction already happened
- setting up another one ...
on short list now ....
$CC / LongScan Criteria
Does this stock meet my custom 12 point scan criteria? Yes, came through on my 40/40 Earnings Scans
Structural Checklist
1. Can a proven price patterns be identified? Yes, Cheat
2. Is the 50D SMA trending up? Yes
3. Has price moved >20% since its last consolidation? Yes
4. Is the weekly RS above its Zero Line? Yes and printing new 10 Week RS Highs
5. Does price action suggest the stock is consolidating / digesting the recent price move? Yes
6. Is the price consolidation longer > 20 days? No
7. Has price volatility contracted from left to right? Yes
8. Has volume volatility contracted from left to right? Yes
9. Are there visible signs of demand within the base? Yes
10. Are there visible signs supply has been absorbed? Yes
Pivot Buy Point (Last 3 Bars)
1. Is there a visible Tight Zone? Yes
2. Have there been 3 Tight Closes? Yes
3. Has there been a Constructive 3 Bar Correction? No
4. Is there a Bullish Inside Bar? No
AND
1. Has volume dropped dramatically? 3x blue dots in the last 4 bars
2. Can risk be managed under 8% in one of 3 ways? Yes
Scan Score (Minimum 12/12)
All Trading Dirty stocks have a Scan Score of 11
Structural Score (Minimum 7/10) 9
Entry Score (Minimum 1/4 then 2/2) 4
$CE / LongScan Criteria
Does this stock meet my custom 12 point scan criteria? Yes, came through on my 40/40 Sales and Earnings Scans
Structural Checklist
1. Can a proven price patterns be identified? Yes, Inverse H&S / CWH
2. Is the 50D SMA trending up? Yes
3. Has price moved >20% since its last consolidation? Yes
4. Is the weekly RS above its Zero Line? Yes
5. Does price action suggest the stock is consolidating / digesting the recent price move? Yes
6. Is the price consolidation longer > 20 days? Yes
7. Has price volatility contracted from left to right? Yes
8. Has volume volatility contracted from left to right? Yes
9. Are there visible signs of demand within the base? Not obvious
10. Are there visible signs supply has been absorbed? Yes
Pivot Buy Point (Last 3 Bars)
1. Is there a visible Tight Zone? Yes
2. Have there been 3 Tight Closes? Yes
3. Has there been a Constructive 3 Bar Correction? No
4. Is there a Bullish Inside Bar? No
AND
1. Has volume dropped dramatically? 2x blue dots in the last 4 bars
2. Can risk be managed under 8% in one of 3 ways? Yes
Scan Score (Minimum 12/12)
All Trading Dirty stocks have a Scan Score of 11
Structural Score (Minimum 7/10) 9.5
Entry Score (Minimum 1/4 then 2/2) 3.5
$KO / Long / Developing (but recommend reviewing the hourly)Worth checking the price and volume action on the hourly. Looks very constructive and is the reason I'm considering a very tightly managed, low risk trade.
Scan Criteria
Does this stock meet my custom 12 point scan criteria? Yes
Structural Checklist
1. Can a proven price patterns be identified? Yes, CWH on the hourly and shelf on daily
2. Is the 50D SMA trending up? Yes
3. Has price moved >20% since its last consolidation? Yes
4. Is the weekly RS above its Zero Line? Yes, and printing new 10 week highs
5. Does price action suggest the stock is consolidating / digesting the recent price move? Yes
6. Is the price consolidation longer > 20 days? No, only 7
7. Has price volatility contracted from left to right? Yes
8. Has volume volatility contracted from left to right? Marginally
9. Are there visible signs of demand within the base? Yes
10. Are there visible signs supply has been absorbed? Yes
Pivot Buy Point (Last 3 Bars)
1. Is there a visible Tight Zone? Yes
2. Have there been 3 Tight Closes? No
3. Has there been a Constructive 3 Bar Correction? No
4. Is there a Bullish Inside Bar? No
AND
1. Has volume dropped dramatically? No
2. Can risk be managed under 8% in one of 3 ways? Yes
Scan Score (Minimum 12/12)
All Trading Dirty stocks have a Scan Score of 12
Structural Score (Minimum 7/10) 8.5
Entry Score (Minimum 1/4 then 2/2) 3
Buy signal - VCP with UC&RWith EVTC i see two buy signals - both based on the teachings of my masters - M. Minervini and G. Morales.
First we see a VCP over the last few days (it was also on a short list from our VCPSniper). What is interesting when you look at in details is that we see a 'shakeout' (following MM rules of VCP) that for aggresive traders can be taken as UC&R (undercut and rally) from the previous low. What is even better is that this offers a very tight stop.
Lets see how this develops!
US stocks setting up VCPs for possible buys (Minervini template)Todays list of stock showing VCP qualities.
Trade safely! As i commented under the last video - number of names completely cancelled VCP setup by moving through the bottom range.
In this video i also share the combination of VCP with UCR (undercut rally as per Gil Morales).
Safe trading to all!