BTC Short to 45k The BTC mining industry currently incurs the following production costs per BTC:
Power cost: $23,000
Hardware cost: $20,000
Historically, BTC's market price has aligned with its production cost on at least four occasions.
This pattern is especially evident after halving events, where the price tends to reach or hover around the production cost level.
The consistent correlation between BTC's price and production cost is a significant indicator for technical analysis, suggesting a critical support level in market behavior.
Mining
#LTCUSDT #1D (ByBit) Ascending wedge breakdown and retestLitecoin lost 100EMA acting as resistance now and is pulling back towards it, more retracement down seems likely on daily.
⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (5.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
64.32
Entry Targets:
1) 65.78
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 55.34
Stop Targets:
1) 71.01
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:LTC BYBIT:LTCUSDT.P #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +79.4%
Possible Loss= -39.8%
Estimated Gaintime= 1 month
New Technologies Can Push Stocks to New HighsNYSE:CAT easily moved above the resistance highs from March and out of its sideways trading range, making new highs. The white candle on lower volume was interesting: intraday showed pro traders in control toward the end of the day as retail traders and smaller funds started selling prematurely. A resting pattern would be a lower-risk entry to prepare for the breakout.
Caterpillar, Inc. has new technologies coming to market. The company unveiled its new technologies for mining on Sept 24, 2024. It reports earnings on October 29th. If you are trading or holding this stock, check support levels but be patient.
Gatos Silver (GATO) AnalysisCompany Overview: Gatos Silver NYSE:GATO is positioned for an exceptional 2024, with CEO Dale Andres expressing confidence in hitting the higher end of silver production forecasts. The company’s 70% stake in the Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV) significantly enhances its value proposition, while ongoing aggressive exploration efforts in the region provide opportunities for new discoveries and resource expansion.
Key Catalysts:
Strong Silver Production: GATO is expected to deliver silver production at the upper end of its projections for 2024, which could be a key driver for stock performance.
Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV): The company's 70% ownership in LGJV offers a solid foundation for growth, with access to one of the highest-grade silver districts globally.
Exploration & Resource Expansion: GATO's exploration efforts in the Los Gatos district continue to uncover new opportunities for resource expansion, bolstering future revenue prospects.
Revenue Growth: In Q1 2024, Gatos Silver reported a 16% increase in revenue, largely due to higher sales volumes, a positive sign of operational efficiency and market demand.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GATO above $12.80-$13.00, supported by the company’s strong silver production outlook and exploration upside. Upside Potential: Our target range for GATO is $25.00-$26.00, driven by production growth, exploration success, and increasing revenues.
🚀 GATO—Silver Shining Bright with Exploration and Production Growth. #SilverStocks #Mining #Exploration
Newmont (NEM) AnalysisCompany Overview: Newmont NYSE:NEM , as the world’s largest gold miner, is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing gold bull market. The price of gold is projected to rise to $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024, creating a significant tailwind for Newmont’s operations.
Key Catalysts:
Gold Production Strength: With forecasted production of 6.9 million ounces in 2024, Newmont has a major advantage, given its scale and operational capacity. The bullish gold market will enhance its profitability.
Newcrest Acquisition: The acquisition of Newcrest Mining is a game-changer, adding $500 million in synergies and boosting cash improvements by $2 billion through portfolio optimization. This deal strengthens Newmont’s competitive position and enhances long-term value creation.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Newmont above $48.00-$49.00, based on strong gold market fundamentals and the strategic value of the Newcrest acquisition. Upside Potential: Our target for NEM is $78.00-$80.00, driven by rising gold prices and operational efficiencies from the acquisition.
🚀 NEM—Gold Market Leader Positioned for Growth. #Gold #Mining #Newmont
BHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of miBHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of minerals and metals (iron, copper, coal). Their performance is closely tied to global demand, particularly in China.
Rewards
Trading at 25.3% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings grew by 25.5% over the past year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 20.6%
Risk Analysis
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.06% per year for the next 3 years
Dividend of 6.75% is not well covered by free cash flows
Can Rio Tinto Save the Day? The Looming Mining Supply CrisisAs the world races towards a greener future, a critical challenge looms on the horizon: a looming supply shortage for essential energy-transition metals, particularly copper. This shortage, if left unchecked, could jeopardize our ambitious plans for a sustainable future.
Rio Tinto, a global mining behemoth, has sounded the alarm, urging the industry to expand mining operations to meet the escalating demand. The company's chairman, Dominic Barton, has dismissed the notion that mergers and acquisitions alone can solve this crisis. He insists that organic growth, involving the discovery and development of new mines, is the only viable path forward.
The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated. The demand for copper, a vital component in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure, is set to skyrocket in the coming decades. Failure to secure adequate supplies of this critical metal could hinder our progress towards a sustainable and electrified world.
Rio Tinto's leadership in the mining industry is undeniable. Their proactive stance on addressing the supply crisis is commendable, and their commitment to organic growth and exploration for critical minerals demonstrates their dedication to the cause. However, even with the efforts of industry giants like Rio Tinto, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.
The Chinese economy, a major player in the global mining landscape, is currently facing its own difficulties. While Barton remains optimistic about China's ability to overcome these challenges, their current economic state could further exacerbate the supply crisis.
As the world grapples with the pressing issue of climate change, the mining industry must rise to the occasion. The time for complacency is over. It is imperative that we invest in exploration, expand mining operations, and secure the critical resources needed to power a sustainable future. The stakes are high, and the world is watching. Can Rio Tinto and the mining industry save the day?
#LTCUSDT #4h (ByBit) Broadening wedge breakout & retestLitecoin pulled back to 50MA support where a bounce seems likely, eventually leading to a bullish continuation.
⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (7.0X)
Amount: 4.8%
Current Price:
72.06
Entry Targets:
1) 71.83
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 80.39
Stop Targets:
1) 67.54
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:LTC BYBIT:LTCUSDT.P #4h #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +83.4%
Possible Loss= -41.8%
Estimated Gaintime= 5-10 days
Gold Price Analysis: Watching Resistance and Support ZonesGold is currently trading between a strong resistance zone, where we’ve seen multiple rejections, and a key support level. The price has been bouncing between these areas. If we see the price drop back to the smaller support, there’s potential for a bounce. It will be crucial to observe how buyers respond at this level to determine the next move. If buyers show strength, a rebound could occur; otherwise, we might see further declines. Monitoring price action at these critical levels will be key for future trades.
#LTCUSDT #2h (OKX Futures) Broadening wedge breakout and retestCRYPTOCAP:LTC regained 50MA support and looks good for bullish continuation from here.
⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: OKX Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (7.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
73.13
Entry Targets:
1) 72.05
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 76.19
Stop Targets:
1) 69.98
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:LTC OKX:LTCUSDT.P #2h #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +40.2%
Possible Loss= -20.1%
Estimated Gaintime= 3-4 days
Liontown Resource OutlookTechnical Analysis
Short-term: Watch the $1.00 support level. If it holds, there might be a short-term bounce, especially considering the increased volume at this level.
Medium-term: Monitor the $1.25 support and $1.75 resistance levels. Both levels show significant volume activity, indicating strong buying and selling interest.
Long-term: Significant resistance is around $2.75. A break above this level, confirmed by high volume, could indicate a potential for higher highs.
Macro Analysis
The latest quarterly report for Liontown Resources, dated March 2024, indicates several updates and progress compared to the previous financial report. Here are the main changes:
1. Project Completion Progress:
The Kathleen Valley Lithium Project is now more than 85% complete on an earned value basis, with the process plant approximately 90% complete.
This is a significant advancement compared to earlier stages.
2. Workforce and Construction Hours:
The site-based workforce now exceeds 900 people, and approximately three million work hours have been recorded since construction commenced at Kathleen Valley (61204675-1) .
3. Mining Progress:
Underground mining has achieved significant progress, with approximately 1,535 total development meters recorded for the March quarter
Open pit mining has also advanced well, with 1.1 million bulk cubic meters mined and ore being stockpiled ahead of plant startup
4. Process Plant and Infrastructure:
Commissioning of the dry plant commenced in late March 2024, with the crushing circuit energized ahead of schedule
Wet plant milestones were achieved, with key areas like flotation piping and electrical well-progressed
5. Financial Position and Funding:
Execution of a A$550 million debt package to support the Kathleen Valley project, ensuring sufficient funding through to first production and beyond
The company's cash balance was A$358.1 million as of 31 March 2024
6. Business Readiness and Recruitment:
Business readiness preparations continued to build momentum ahead of first production, with 258 full-time employees directly employed by Liontown at the end of the quarter
7. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Activities:
Key ESG activities progressed, including the approval of the Kathleen Valley Mining Proposal update and the completion of heritage surveys for infrastructure construction
8. New Contracts and Agreements:
The Kathleen Valley Village Services contract was awarded to Sirrom Corporation for three years
Significant progress was made on the construction of the 95MW Hybrid Power Station, including the installation of solar panels and live testing of LNG gensets
9. Tailings Storage Facility and Water Management:
The Tailings Storage Facility (TSF) cell 1 continues to be filled with raw water to support start-up processing operations
These changes reflect significant advancements in project development, financial structuring, and operational readiness compared to previous reports, positioning Liontown Resources closer to commencing production and generating revenue from the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.
Marathon Digital: Strong!We expect the MARA price to continue to rally during the blue wave (x). Only when the high is placed a little closer to the resistance at $31.30 should there be a sell-off into our magenta Target Zone (between $16.35 and $9.86), which completes the same-colored wave (ii) correction. Within this range, investors can open long positions, whereby stops could be placed around 1% below the lower edge. Once the low is set, the price should rise above the resistance at $31.30. Only our 33% probable alternative scenario calls for a more bearish development: it still places the stock in the green wave alt. (2)
NVDA Looks Good For Higher PricesLooking good for higher now that we are trading above the POC. We need to flip the VWAP into support next to really aim for the VAH (White Line).
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#BTCUSDT #1h (ByBit) Descending trendline breakoutBitcoin seems to have found bottom and is forming a local uptrend, looks good for bullish continuation after regaining 100EMA support.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (13.0X)
Amount: 4.9%
Current Price:
57720.9
Entry Targets:
1) 57411.4
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 60987.5
Stop Targets:
1) 55618.9
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BYBIT:BTCUSDT #1h #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +81.0%
Possible Loss= -40.6%
Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 days
#BTCUSDT #4h (ByBit) Falling broadening wedge breakout & retestBitcoin regained 50MA support and is pulling back to it, seems ready to pump towards 200MA resistance after.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (12.0X)
Amount: 5.1%
Current Price:
62917.6
Entry Targets:
1) 61920.3
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 65955.6
Stop Targets:
1) 59897.6
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +78.2%
Possible Loss= -39.2%
Estimated Gaintime= 1 week
Pan American Silver (PAAS) AnalysisStrategic Portfolio Optimization:
Pan American Silver NYSE:PAAS , a prominent global precious metal mining company, is bolstering its market position through strategic initiatives. Recently, PAAS agreed to sell its Lucita property to Defiance Silver and its La Arena gold property in Peru to Jinteng Mining for $245 million upfront, plus contingent payments. These moves align with PAAS's strategy to optimize its portfolio and strengthen its financial position.
Leadership Insight:
CEO Michael Steinmann highlighted the strategic benefits, stating, "With the sale of La Arena, we continue to optimize our portfolio while retaining future upside through royalties."
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on PAAS above the $16.50-$17.00 range.
Upside Potential: With a target set at $28.00-$30.00, investors should consider PAAS's enhanced financial outlook and strategic portfolio optimization as key drivers for potential stock appreciation.
📊⚒️ Stay informed about Pan American Silver for promising investment opportunities! #PAAS #PreciousMetals 📈🔍
#LTCUSDT #1h (OKX Futures) Descending trendline breakoutLitecoin printed a dragonfly doji on 50MA support, looks bullish for the days to come.
⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: OKX Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (9.0X)
Amount: 4.8%
Current Price:
78.97
Entry Targets:
1) 78.32
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 81.98
Stop Targets:
1) 76.49
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:LTC OKX:LTCUSDT.P #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +42.1%
Possible Loss= -21.0%
Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 days
Spotting the REAL Bitcoin ATHLet's talk about an ambiguously overlooked elephant in the crypto room, THE MINERS .
Bitcoin miners hold the most influence over the crypto market, despite the humble spotlight casted on them compared to other players like the exchanges and the ETF distributors.
What people really miss is the fact that miners HAVE to make the most raw profit , there is no ATH, no bull-run, no real surge unless Bitcoin miners make more profit than us!
So let's get right into how Bitcoin miners and the costs involved in the mining process could and has affected the price of Bitcoin during previous cycles.
Based on my research, Bitcoin surprisingly NEVER has dipped below the average mining cost during a bull-run.
During mid April 2021 , Bitcoin printed a new ~65000 ATH before starting a correction period that terrified investors. And if you were there back then, you'd remember how this correction was brutal to new traders.
However, after two weeks of shaking the hands, Bitcoin started forming a descending channel week after week, until the price touched the golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) at ~28600 , which happened to be only ~2000 Dollars away from the average mining cost at that time, which was ~26500.
Briefly after, Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel and started surging towards its REAL ATH, ~69000 .
Now, you might ask what does that have to do with the current cycle?
Well, you're absolutely right!
This cycle is completely different , because the average cost of mining Bitcoin is at RIDICULOUSLY crazy ~57000 level !
And such extremely high production cost begs for a serious consideration of the validity of ~73000 as a REAL cycle ATH.
Do we really think that the current ATH is making miners enough profit?
I personally don't think so, especially after the price retested the ~57000 level (which happens to be the current average production cost of Bitcoin) days ago and rebounded from it.
It only makes sense to expect Bitcoin to print at least 70% profit for miners who produce Bitcoin at this point in time, especially after the halving event.
And predicting a deeper correction where miners would print LOSSES instead of profit during the BULL MARKET wouldn't be a sensible preposition.
It's extremely important to also mention that during the last cycle, Bitcoin NEVER dropped below its average production cost level until the bear market started .
In fact, dropping below that level might have been one of the most significant causes of the bear market to begin with.
Conclusion:
The bull market is exactly when Bitcoin NEEDS to make miners profit, it's why mining is functional, especially for small mining businesses that can't afford to keep their gear running without cyclic profit.
Bitcoin is currently rebounding from a price matching its current average mining cost after its post-halving correction. And based on the info in this brief research, this level should be where Bitcoin starts surging towards a new ATH.
During previous cycles, miners printed at least 100% profit after the halving events.
Will history repeat itself?
Will the ~57000 price level be the final rebounding level before making a new ATH of at least 100000?
Let's see!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.