GDC - Bull Flag Consolidation to WatchGDC has ran up over 400% after coming out of nowhere to ascend parabolically over
the past several trading days. Relative volume is about 5-10X the normal average volume
in the past months. Price action consolidated as the early buyers took their profits.
Consolidation is shown on the chart as a regression channel bounding the fade.
This pattern is suggestive of a high and tight flag pattern on an narrow time span.
I see this as worth watching especially if price can breakout of the channel especially
if with an engulfing green bar ( big ass candle/ e line strike) confirmed with a volume
spike over the running average. If so buckle up and be careful in riding the
volatility.
Be mindful, this could be a pump and dump. It is up 10X= 1000% I cannot find any
news or catalyst. It may be in the mining and land development realm. This
would be in the Calgary Canada area possibly building out whole new communities
near mining or oil drilling operations. This could be manipulation.
by insiders. No matter traders may pile into this. So far as I can tell it is
difficult to short and no options. This is speculation. Probably only for
the nimble to get in watch for a quick 100-200% return and get out to sell to
the next wave of buyers stepping in.
Miningstocks
TMC Offers Massive Upside Mining the Seafloor The weaker dollar has led to prices for commodities climbing sharply and quality mining stocks generating substantial gains. This has occurred in the face of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in history. Rising rates normally strengthen the dollar and we did see a USD rally in the first half of 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. But that rally fizzled and the dollar took a sharp turn lower in September of 2022, even with the Fed continuing to raise rates, doubling the Fed Funds rate from 2.5% to over 5%.
This can be explained by the markets being forward-looking and anticipating an end to rate hikes on the horizon. But this is also partially due to inflation remaining stubbornly high with no signs of fiscal responsibility from the current administration. And now that most of the rate hikes are behind us and we are at or near a terminal Fed Funds rate, we think the dollar decline will accelerate, which will translate into significantly higher commodity prices.
TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)
TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. This company is interesting because they are the first publicly-traded company to attempt mining valuable metals from the sea floor.
They claim to be developing the world’s largest estimated source of battery metals, with enough nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese to electrify the entire U.S. passenger vehicle fleet. They estimate massive In situ quantities of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese with a total resource of 15,700,000 t Ni / 2,400,000 t Co / 13,300,000 t Cu / 350,000,000 t Mn. Some nickel projects have high grade, some have a large resource, but TMC is an outlier among peers with the largest NiEq resource and highest NiEq grade.
The company estimates an NPV of over $10 billion at current nickel prices, based on just 22% of the NORI-D resource. Yet the company is trading at a market cap of around $300 million. This is a multiple of 10x to 20x less than their land-based peers, implying huge upside should they be successful obtaining permits and moving into production.
In just the past week, TMC said it plans to apply next year for a license to start mining in the Pacific Ocean, with production expected to start as early as late 2025. The company has signed non-binding MoU with Pacific Metals Company (PAMCO) of Japan to evaluate the processing of 1.3 million tonnes per year of wet nodules But environmental campaigners say seabed mining could have a catastrophic impact on marine ecosystems, so it is still unclear if they will get the license needed to start mining. There are also questions around the costs to pull these nodules up from deep locations on the seafloor.
TMC is an interesting speculative mining play. Management believes it has rights to the globe’s largest undeveloped Nickel project. Nickel is one of the most widely used minerals for EV batteries and will see increased demand in the years ahead. A supply gap is likely to push prices for nickel much higher in the years ahead, potentially increasing the value of TMC as well. Much will hinge on getting final regulations from the International Seabed Authority, which seems to be in no hurry. But if this happens and TMC gets permits, I think this stock is going to be 5x to 10x for investors buying shares ahead of the news.
The share price spiked higher on increased media coverage lately, but dropped back just as fast. I recommend this balanced article from CNBC for continued reading on TMC. The price went from 65 cents to $3.00, before falling back to $1.10 currently. Everyone will have to decide for themself if this is a good opportunity to buy the pullback or simply catching a falling knife. A small allocation as a lottery ticket could be of interest for risk-tolerant investors.
If you like gold this is for youLook at the chart, we had a double top that didn't play out. That means that the price is going to the other direction so up. This is a gold and copper mining company. Both metals are ripping. I would buy a good position here and if it drops buy more. Is very unlikely to break down the strong support. BTW while you are holding, it pays you more the 4% yield dividend. Not bad.
Pigeon is long CleanSpark $CLSKCleanspark is on pace to reach 10eh/s in the next 30-40 days. That is late july early august. They have the miners on site and racking. They also have the miners already purchased and being delivered to reach or possibly exceed 16eh/s by the end of the year. This is a miner that has been lagging against all others. As book value goes they are severely undervalued and have positioned themselves to become a top 2-3 miner.
Retail investors aren't liking the dilution but it looks like to me they won't need to use all of the ATM as the stock price has increased. Retail and even analysts have low price targets because there is uncertainty they can pull off the targets they've set out. They have diluted 57% over the last 2 quarter to get 2.5x in hashrate, from 6.6eh/s to 16eh/s. I am fine with this as as they are growing before the halving as miners need to be aggressive and also efficient as possible. Pigeon sees this as an opportunity to buy value and have a calculated asymmetrical bet on the books.
There is no such thing as a 'quad top', this is making LH's into resistance. Expecting pace of move to be speed up as that resistance is snaped. Would like to see that zone labeled to hold tho.
Pigeon is long sparky.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Slowly but surely… 👍Slowly but surely, Agnico is devoting itself to the current downwards pressure. Despite the occasional counter movement, the share should soon reach and break through the support at $31.03. Thus, it should arrive in the yellow zone between $19.10 and $10.08 to complete wave (2) in yellow. As soon as this is done and dusted, Agnico can turn upwards again, climb back above $31.03 and further northwards from there. A 25% chance remains, though, that the share could get dragged above the resistance at $67.14 instead. In that case, we would expect the ascent to continue above $89.16 as well.
Fresnillo: Bearish Success 💪🐻The Fresnillo-bears can announce a first success: Finally, the share has arrived at the support at GBP 610! Next, our furry friends should push Fresnillo below this mark to gather further downward momentum. Then, the share should also pass the support at GBP 456.60 to develop wave C in turquoise. However, there still remains a 20% chance that Fresnillo could change direction and climb above the resistance at GBP 997. In that case, we would expect the share to place the new top of wave alt.B in turquoise in the turquoise zone between GBP 1086 and GBP 1292 before turning downward again.
NILSY - NORLISK METALSFibonacci on stock and MACD fit here and wondering if anyone uses fib retracement. Looking to see metal stocks repeating themselves with Gold, Silver, Palladium, Rhodium hitting new highs while Nickel and Platinum getting ready for own run. Uranium repeat of 07-08 and 11-12...too?
Barrick: Barrick Bears 🏉Ever heard of the Barrick Bears? They are a great team, which should help to push our primary scenario for Barrick. Currently, they have to fight against a little bullish counter reaction, but soon they should drag the share below the support at $12.65 and into the yellow zone between $11.97 and $6.32. There, wave (2) in yellow should end and therefore a fresh upwards movement should start. However, there is still a 25% chance for the Barrick Bulls to intervene. They could urge the share above the resistance at $22.80 and thus trigger further ascent.
$SSNT | DIAMOND BOTTOM PATTERN OR CATASTROPHE This one is on the weekly. It may take a few months to play out. It could also break to the downside, what will determine which way the pattern breaks is if NASDAQ:SSNT closes the merger with Bitcoin miner, Rhodium.
RIO TINTO (Waiting for Confirmation)Rio Tinto – Mining
Market Cap: €1.35 bln
Price: $61.74
6 Month Dividend: $2.24 (c.3.2%) – March 2023 Quote
Dividends recently cut significantly from $4.79 in March 22 (c.5.7%) to $2.24 April 2023 (c.3.2%).
Chart
- Whilst the long term trend is up with higher lows on the large pennant since 1990, we have not made a higher high since May 2008 and this is a little concerning long term.
- On Balance Volume continues increasing which is position and offers some reassurance. We do have our first lower high here on the short term and this could signify a change in price direction.
- In terms of a trade, I’m inconclusive for now. I would like the RSI to come back down to the bottom of the purple RSI pennant at minimum (Short Term Buy potential) or become totally oversold
on the RSI for a confident buy in.
- Any tests of the bottom of the large pennant would be ideal but this may never happen again, time will tell so we focus on the RSI for now.
- At present price is pincered between the 200 week SMA and key support. This is likely an inflection point. A good time to wait and see.
- An upward sloping 200 week is positive but it is also acts as resistance and until we are above it again, it will remain resistance. Getting a hold above it could offer a buying opportunity.
- I will update the chart when we have some confirmation of direction
Barrick: Dig Deeper! ⛏Barrick still has got heaps of digging operations to do. The share should continue the downwards movement it has started from the last high of wave (iv) in blue and drop below the support line at $12.65. Thereupon, Barrick should enter the yellow zone between $11.97 and $6.32 to develop wave (2) in yellow, whose low should then complete the overarching downwards trend and thus initiate fresh upwards movement. However, there is a 35% chance that Barrick could turn northwards earlier, climbing above the resistance at $22.80. In that case, the share should proceed and rise above $26.07 and $31.22 as well.
Pan American Silver: Resurfacing? 🤿After it had initially been dragged back to the bottom of the blue zone between $13.94 and $21.88, Pan American Silver is currently taking another whack at resurfacing from its depths. By now, the course has managed to establish a new high since the end of wave (ii) in blue and should continue the ascent. We expect the share to leave the blue zone on the northern side, heading for the resistance at $40.11, which should be conquered in due time. However, there is still a 48% chance that Pan American Silver could slip out of the blue zone and drop below the support at $10.61, thus initiating further downwards movement below the next mark at $5.38.
Fresnillo: Easter Egg Hunt 🥚🐣🐰Has Fresnillo gotten lost, hunting for Easter eggs? We don’t think so! We rather understand the share to be swerving, interspersing its way with a little counter movement. Soon, the course should return to the main path and fall below both the supports at GBP 610 and GBP 456.60 to continue the descent. However, a 30% chance remains for Fresnillo to make a more extensive detour. In that case, the share would climb above the resistance at GBP 997 to develop wave alt.B in turquoise in the turquoise zone between GBP 1086.00 and GBP 1292.50 first before heading downwards again.
Gold Gold and GDXJ on 9hr chart
Gold rising here again
-Miners lagging
-Miners may be doubting this move
-Buying back my miners, I still think theres banking risk in the system
None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
First Majestic: Room for Maneuver 🤏First Majestic is still wading through the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89 to finish wave 2 in turquoise. To achieve this, the course still has got some room for maneuver – at least until the bottom of the turquoise zone. However, it also might have already completed the current movement, thus continuing the ascent. As soon as that is the case, we expect First Majestic to climb out of the turquoise zone, heading for the resistance at $19.41. There is a 45% chance, though, that the course could drop out of the turquoise zone and slip below the support at $5.30. Should this indeed happen, the share should develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green near $2.91.
Newmont: Flirty 😉Newmont is flirting quite heavily with our alternative scenario, moving closer and closer to the support at $37.45. By now, it is touching the upper edge of the yellow zone between $42.50 and $23.41, on the verge of slumping deeper. There is a 40% chance that the course might do so, dropping below the support at $37.45 to develop wave alt.(2) in yellow earlier already. However, primarily, we still expect Newmont to turn upwards first to head for the turquoise zone between $67.68 and $80.84. There, the share should place the top of wave B in turquoise before starting a fresh downwards movement, which should then lead into the yellow zone and thus below $37.45. Beneath this mark, Newmont should complete the overarching descent in the form of wave (2) in yellow.
Future of RIO, BHP and the sectorI have had a pretty large position in RIO and BHP since end of July 2022, I bought expecting the market to recover and for copper/iron demand to jump from the re-opening of China and the rest of the world. These positions have given me quite the return with their pretty high yields.
Having said this, we can see that the steam from the market's comeback has slowed down, copper, iron and ore prices in general have met some resistance and both RIO and BHP have taken a step back from their highs. I don't think there is much more gain to be made with these stocks even though their structure and their fundamentals are highly attractive.
I like to invest in one sector at a time, trying to spot which one will be the next to glow up. I think the mining and refining sector has had it's run. Therefore, I'll most probably be exiting my positions in both these companies after collecting dividends and the most probable upside from the upcoming earnings.
Extra:
I am mostly exiting my position because of what I said above, but I've slowly started to consider the rising tensions between China and the western world. Though sanctions would be an economical blunder for everyone in play, having your biggest consumers be in a cat fight is certainly not preferable for business.
Fresnillo: Getting Down for Business 👇Since the end of wave B in turquoise, Fresnillo has been continually getting down for business. And the share should keep going as we expect it to march below both the supports at GBP 610 and at GBP 456.60. There is a 35% chance, though, that the course could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at GBP 997 instead. In that case, Fresnillo should enter the turquoise zone between GBP 1085.80 and GBP 1292.80 to develop a new high in the form of wave alt.B in turquoise before moving southwards again.
WATCHING THIS ONE… TMC has great potential!! People are up in arms after photos broke yesterday, showing the terrible conditions of a cobalt mine in the Congo. Of course, the irony here is that a lot of cobalt, along with many other materials powering the green revolution, are often sourced from places like the Congo with little regard for environmental or labor law.
The reason I'm telling you this is that while all this was going on, a report came out of Norway. They went largely ignored by the media in which they announced they found a substantial amount of rare earth minerals on their seabed, many of which are currently being sourced from places like the Cobalt mine and the Congo I mentioned earlier.
And here's the catch. They estimated to have found 3.1 million tons of cobalt alone. So how much is that? Let's do some quick math. The current market rate of cobalt is about $21 a pound. $21 a pound equals about $42,000 a ton. Multiply that by 3.1 million tons. That cobalt is worth 1.3 trillion, give or take, or three times Norway's total GDP.
Now, of course, if Norway were to extract all that cobalt, it would be worth far less than 1.3 trillion because they'd flood the market with it. But nevertheless, when you consider all the other materials they found and how much of it, it's difficult to ignore the deep sea mining opportunity laying under the sea.
Now, here's where I ran into some issues. There's only a few deep sea mining stocks and none of them have been able to commercialize yet, so they're all bleeding money. I was about to give up. Then I came across as CEO of a deep sea mining company with a ticker TMC that has been buying shares of his own company recently.
This intrigued me, so I started researching them more and that's when I noticed that TMC second and third biggest shareholders are Maersk and Allseas Group. If you don't know, the reason that this is such a big deal is because Maersk is the largest container shipping company in the world by tonnage, and AllSeas is a major offshore construction company.
The fact they both have major share positions in TMC, a company that has almost zero ceiling as far as economic and environmental benefits, along with the CEO buying shares all while the company is down 90% from its IPO. Makes me wonder if there's more than meet’s the eye. This might be more of a lottery ticket than an investment, but what do you guys think?
To see what stocks, politicians, hedge funds, and CEOs are buying. Check out Quiver Quantitative
www.quiverquant.com
ADMR: Can it Be The Start of the Markup Phase?Technical Analysis
After moving in the sideways trend for a while, ADMR made a descending broadening wedge pattern. Furthermore, ADMR has broken out of the Falling Wedge Pattern. The Breakout could indicate a possible starting point for the Markup Phase. The Markup Phase is the stage of price breakout of the trading range and starts to rise steadily. Therefore, we are forecasting a potential upside movement to the target area.
All other explanations are presented in the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position in the ADMR"
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