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GBP/USD rises after Bailey's hawkish remarksThe British pound continues to rally on Tuesday after recording back-to-back winning days. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2544, up 0.33%. Earlier, the pound touched a high of 1.2559, its highest level since September 6th. Bank of England Governor Bailey testified before the Parliament's Treasury Committee earlier today. Bailey had a clear message for the markets, warning that they were underestimating inflation and "putting too much weight" on the fact that headline inflation is in decline. Headline CPI dropped to 4.6% in October, down sharply from 6.7% in September. However, much of that slide is due to falling energy prices. The BoE is more concerned with core CPI and services prices which remain stubbornly high - core CPI dropped from 6.1% to 5.7% in October. With the battle against inflation clearly not over, Bailey is pushing back hard against market speculation of a rate cut in mid-2024 and has said that cuts remain a long way off. The BoE is still concerned about inflation risks, such as the Israel-Hamas war and a possible spike in energy or food costs. The markets, which have priced in three rate cuts in 2024, are focused on the poor economic outlook and the risk of a recession, which should dampen any appetite in the BoE to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the November meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed maintained rates at 5.25%-5.50% for a second straight time and the markets are confident that the Fed is done with tightening and will trim rates in mid-2024. However, the Fed is in no mood to talk rate cuts, with inflation still well above the 2% target. At the meeting, Powell sounded hawkish, saying that inflation was still too high and that the Fed was prepared to raise rates if necessary. The minutes will likely bear a  similar hawkish message and that could provide a boost to the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2476. Above, there is resistance at 1.2575 1.2394 and 1.2312 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AUD/USD extends gains, RBA minutes next The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn't much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point to 4.35%, but the Australian dollar dropped sharply in the aftermath, which is an unusual move after a rate hike. Investors jumped all over the language of the rate statement, which suggested that the bar had risen for an additional rate hike. Interestingly, the statement also warned that inflation was "too high" and the "risk of inflation remaining higher has increased", but investors ignored this hawkish assessment. The RBA minutes may provide more clarity on whether rates have peaked. The markets are betting that the tightening cycle is over, but if the minutes signal that rates could go up, the Australian dollar could get a boost. As for 2024, the markets are expecting a rate cut, but the RBA is still trying to convince the markets that rate hikes are on the table and it isn't discussing trimming rates. Just a month ago, 10-year US Treasuries were trading at 4.98%, but have fallen to 4.44% at present. The lower yields have made US Treasuries less attractive and the US dollar has fallen against the majors recently, including the Australian dollar. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and the markets will be combing through, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Despite the Fed insisting that rate hikes remain on the table, the markets are confident that Fed policy will be less restrictive in the first half of 2024. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 100% likelihood of a pause in December, with a 30% chance of a rate cut in March 2024, followed by a 64% chance in May. There is resistance at 0.6587 and at 0.6600 0.6470 and 0.6397 are providing support
by OANDA
Aussie under pressure ahead of wage growth releaseThe Australian dollar started the week by dropping 50 basis points but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, down 0.12%. It has been a rough ride lately for the Australian dollar. The currency fell 1.17% against the US dollar last week and has plunged 3.39% in the month of August. Australia's inflation rate remains elevated at 6%. The RBA has aggressively tightened rates, but high wage growth, courtesy of a tight labour market and high inflation, remains a key driver of inflationary pressures. Wage growth accelerated to 3.7% q/q in the first quarter, up from 3.3%, the highest level since the third quarter of 2012. The consensus for the second quarter stands at 3.7%. On a monthly basis, wage growth is expected to rise 0.9%, higher than the Q2 reading of 0.8%. A strong wage price index reading will make the Reserve Bank of Australia's fight against inflation that much more difficult. The RBA expects inflation to fall slowly, with a forecast of 3.25% by the end of next year and falling to the 2%-3% target only in late 2025. The RBA will release the minutes of the August meeting on Tuesday. Market expectations were split ahead of the meeting as to whether the RBA would pause for a second straight month or hold rates at 4.10%. In the end, policy makers went for a pause but added that further tightening could be required, depending on the data. Tuesday's minutes may provide some insights into the decision to pause. RBA Governor Lowe said on Friday that the central bank was leaving the door open for further tightening but only expected to make "small adjustments to calibrate policy". China's economic slowdown could spell trouble for Australia's economy and the ailing Australian dollar. China's exports and imports are down and the country is experiencing deflation. We'll get a look at Chinese Industrial Production on Tuesday, with a consensus estimate of 4.4% for July, unchanged from June. There is resistance at 0.6607 and 0.6700 0.6475 and 0.6382 are providing support
by OANDA
Powell in the hot seatThis week we see what the fed is truly made of. Given continued hawkishness from the Fed in their minutes, by the end of Wednesday I believe we could be hovering just above the pre-covid highs in wait of the inflation report Thursday. If inflation is shown not to be slowing down I believe the follow through on this move down could be jaw dropping. In that case, limit down Sunday night is well within reasonable to test the Fed's resolve with regard to their tough talk. I'm not holding any position over night as the Fed could capitulate at any time if things start unraveling.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jforet6112
Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower. The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar. The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks. There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085 0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
by OANDA
Special Gold pre-CPI updateGoodday traders, Big day today again in the market with US CPI eyed and the FOMC minutes later in the day. A little breakdown of some scenarios so we are prepared: CPI 🔷 Scenario 1: CPI higher than forecast (>4%) Dollar will break the 94.5 weekly resistance and most likely will settle the week with more bullishness to expect in the coming weeks. Expect a breakout towards 95 and 96 in extension. Gold towards 1720. 🔷 Scenario 2: CPI as forecast (between 3,9 & 4,1%) Already priced in and most likely will remain in the range 94-94.5. Traders will look further to the FOMC minutes for the next direction. Gold remains rangebound between 1780-1750 until the next fundamental trigger. 🔷 Scenario 3: CPI lower than forecast (<4%) This is a bearish scenario and will complicate the outlook for the taper announcement in November after 2 NFP misses and the JOLTS miss yesterday. The dollar will most likely test the next support which is around 92.5 & 93 in the coming days. Gold most likely to test the 1800 resistance. FOMC Minutes The other fundamental trigger will be the FOMC minutes. Traders and investors will be looking for more details on when the FED wants to taper and when they need to postpone the tapering. If these treshholds have missed (NFP & CPI), then it's pretty sure for traders that FED will postpone the taper announcement to December. For now, it seems the dollar is rolling over to the downside as expected from the 94.5 weekly resistance. This can be early profit taking before the datarelease, or the big boys already have some data leakage that CPI will miss its forecast and started selling early. 🔮 I remain bullish on gold and I expect to test 1800 this week. Let's not forget the inverse H&S on the daily chart which is pointing at 1808 with 1830 in extension.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
Gold buyers need acceptance beyond $1,800, FOMC Minutes eyedGold rises for the fifth straight day even as market sentiment dwindles. In doing so, the yellow metal keeps the previous day’s upside break of 100-DMA amid recovering oscillators. This in turn joins the market’s cautious mood ahead of the FOMC minutes. Given the US dollar pullback adding to the aforementioned catalysts, gold prices remain ready to battle a horizontal area from late February, around $1,815. However, any further upside beyond the same will be challenged by the 200-DMA level of $1,829. Also acting as the key hurdle are multiple resistance levels from January 20 surrounding $1,870. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 100-DMA level of $1,789 will recall the gold sellers. Though, March’s top near $1,755 and the recent low of $1,750 could test the bears afterward. In a case where gold fails to rebound from the mid-$1700s, $1,723 and the $1,700 threshold may challenge further downside ahead of the yearly low around $1,677-78.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
The price of usd/jpy is not able to break upThe price of usd/jpy is not able to break up the static resistance. This because of the macro scenario we can find around the us economy. We can find the minor one around 111.90. From here it is channeled again into a very short/short-term downtrend. That should bring it back to test the dynamic support area. As this movement is one of the most common in this technical scenario. That level coincides with the EMA 200 weekly and passing periods for the approximately 109.90. Moreover, following the macroeconomic scenario that is taking shape on the US dollar, it is very likely that this trend ends on the static support. In this situation we need to be ready to open a new order as a big opportunity, we can identified this level on the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement at an altitude of 109.3. In fact, with the FOMC minutes which were published yesterday and the monetary policy that will be declared at the next meeting of the FED this will certainly remain unchanged. This policy could not even modified to make it more expansive (favoring the pressures of Trump and the markets). Analysts expect a slight short-term devaluation by the US dollar against other majors. In the medium term, is expected a lot of laterality on the major pairs. The USD against the Yen should remain within this lateral channel.  This is formed by the support area set at 109.3 and the resistance set at 112.4. Unless there are sudden changes in the scenario, this is what is expected on USDJPY until the end of the first half of 2019.
by BFCMInvest
USDCAD: A Few Minutes To Late Hey guys! Today my intention was to upload a trade update idea on Gold, because we entered another buy. We will be doing it tomorrow night... This one is quite a better one with a nice setup just formed minutes ago during FED announcement. We were waiting on USDCAD for another move to the top - for a short entry after 3 cycles of bullishness. The high was actually higher, but on the 4h we are now seeing a nice rejection down. Next goal is to break the grey price zone below. Risk/Reward is over 3 so this is a good setup. See you guys later for the Gold update.
Short
by darian_fx
SELL EUR V AUD, USD, NZD: ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES HIGHLIGHTSAfter 5days higher EUR$ Statistically is a 80th percentile sell opportunity - the monetary policy minutes were dovish on the margin reiterating and stressing the ECB's willingness to "Boost stimulus again if needed". This should put downside pressure on EUR given september meeting is coming up (when most likely to add to easing). EURAUD and EURUSD shorts here look technically the best and fundamentally with EURNZD also possible and an alternative for EURAUD (depends on your preference - higher differential = NZD; weaker monpol fwd guidance/ future rate stability = AUD). ECB Monetary Policy Minutes Highlights: ECB SAYS "WIDE AGREEMENT" AMONG COUNCIL MEMBERS NOT TO DISCUSS ANY MONETARY POLICY REACTION AT JULY 20-21 MEETING -Brexit Vote Created New Headwinds for Eurozone Economy, Heightened Uncertainty-ECB Minutes -Brexit Vote Could Affect Global Economy in Unpredictable Ways-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Stressed ECB's Readiness to Boost Stimulus Again if Needed-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Thought it Was Too Soon to Discuss Fresh Stimulus-ECB Minutes -ECB Saw Market Impact of Brexit Vote "Contained"-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Stressed Need To Safeguard Transmission of ECB Policies Through Banks-ECB Minutes -Policymakers Noted Apparent Link Between Bank Stock Prices, Bank Lending Volumes-ECB Minutes ECB ACCOUNT OF MONPOL MEETING -Called For Measures To Address Weak Profitability -No Clear Upward Trend In Inflation Path -Premature To Discuss Fresh Stimulus ECB'S PRAET: CALLS WEAK PRICES AN 'ONGOING SOURCE' OF CONCERN
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL DXY/ USD: NEUTRAL FOMC JULY MINUTES & FED BULLARD SPEECHFOMC minutes were neutral-dovish on the margin as expected, with members split on calls for further rate hikes - though there was a general consensus that the Fed needed to acumulate more data before moving on rates (this could be dovish given in real time data has been poor). Several wanted more confidence on inflation, since this is the casewe know inflation took a relagively big hit this past tuesday so also could be considered dovish. Though some saw a rate hike "soon" appropriate though reasons for why are scarce short of labour markets tightening. This in general imo was dovish/ neutral as expected with hawks only having labour markets on their side - I like AUDUSD and kiwi longs here (aussie prefered) as I have said all week, despite the pull-back. Given FOMC minutes were not hawkish I think AUD and NZD can move higher now as i believe it was the FOMC risk that cause the sell-off or was responsible for most - I also like short $yen as a continued theme on pullbacks and short GBPUSD as a long USD hedge from 1.305. FOMC July Minutes Highlights: FOMC Minutes: Split Fed in July Sought to Keep Options Open On Rate Hike FOMC Minutes: Uncertainty From Brexit, May Hiring Slowdown Receded FOMC Minutes: General Agreement to Accumulate More Data Before Rate Move FOMC Minutes: Some Saw Another Rate Hike Appropriate Soon FOMC Minutes: Several Wanted to Wait For More Confidence On Inflation FOMC Minutes: Most Saw U.S. At or Approaching Full Employment FOMC Minutes: Uncertainty From Brexit, May Hiring Slowdown Receded FOMC Minutes: Several Saw Wage Increases as Evidence of Tightening Labor Markets FOMC Minutes: Others Uncertain About Trajectory of Inflation FOMC Minutes: General Agreement to Accumulate More Data Before Rate Move FOMC Minutes: European Banks Under Pressure, Paticularly Italian Banks FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw U.S. Financial System Resilient to Brexit Vote FOMC Minutes: Long-Term Policy Framework Discussed, Decisions Not Needed For Some Time Fed Bullard Speech highlights: Bullard Reiterates Fed Rate Target Close to Appropriate Level Bullard: Fed Rate Target Close to Appropriate Level Fed's Bullard: Fed Needs to Explain Why Predicted Rate Rises Haven't Happened Bullard Sees Limited Policy Coordination Between Central Banks Bullard: Would Like to See Higher Rate of Productivity Bullard: Sticks with call for single rate hike in 2016 & 2017, reiterates data dependency
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
AUDUSD: RBA SOMP HIGHLIGHTS - NFP GUIDANCE FROM HEREThe RBA was relatively neutral on the margin, keeping their inflation targets the same at 1.5-2.5. However, unfortunately for aussie shorts the RBA didnt offer any forward guidence on sentiment towards further easing, or specific reference to the aussie FX level - despite there being a strong bid bias brewing in the aud$ cross post-25bps cut. Also their forecasts for underlying inflation imo were quite positive at 1.5% vs 1.0% currently - this infers the RBA perhaps even thinks that the 1.5% rate will be sufficient to reach their inflation target, and that another cut this year isnt being thought about given they predict on target inflation with current policy. Although this does then run the downside risk of inflation staying low (as i expect) which may force the RBAs hand to cut again at years end if inflation is below 1.% or another print that misses the 1.5% expected mark. At these levels aussie looks attractive on the offer with a 0.74xx target - however USD supply has been strife since last week when rate expectations sold off amid poor GDP print to just p12% in september - down from 25% earlier in the week.. this week failed to improve, with little impetus for this to be the case, though the greenback now looks to NFP today for guidance. A beat/ firm print should help aussie offer well at these levels given we are right at the double top 0.766 level, so any USD strength arising from the NFP print has a bias to see AUD$ move lower, though as the macro landscape questionably is changing, it is uncertain if it will be enough to surpress yield seekers demand for aussie deposits for long/ a sustained period (if at all), which is expecially odd since we saw the rate brought down this week whihc should have set a bearish tone for the week, as we have seen with the BOE and GBP. After NFP we will have a clearer view. From here i think aussie positioning should be sidelined until the NFP print is clear - a miss and i actually think Aussie is better to trade bid, with 0.78 a firm target. A NFP hit and that should offer aussie lower, though for some reason I see the risk asymmetrically skewed to aussie topside, given the very week reaction to what is/ should be the biggest fundamental driver possible - a rate cut. So much of this trade is being vigilant - an NFP miss, buy a 0.766 confirmed breakout, a NFP hit - ensure AUD$ is trading with a clear bid bias.. any 10-30pips movement lower will not suffice at these levels, aussie is still likely bidding. RBA Minutes Highlights: - Underlying Inflation To Remain Under 2% For Much Of Forecast Period, Reach 2 % By End 2018 - Prospects For Economy Positive, But Low Inflation Allows For "Even Stronger Growth" - Judged Risks Associated With Rising House Prices And Debt Had Diminished - A$ Remains Significant Source Of Uncertainty For Inflation, Growth Forecasts - Economic Growth And Inflation Forecasts Little Changed Overall - Forecasts Underlying Inflation 1.5% By End 2016, 1.5-2.5% End 2017, 1.5-2.5% End 2018 - Forecasts GDP Growth 2.5-3.5% End 2016, 2.5-3.5% End 2017, 3-4% End 2018 - Says Unemployment To Fall Only A Little Out To 2018, Employment Growth To Be Modest This Year - Drag On GDP From Falling Mining Investment Looks To Have Peaked, Non-Mining Still Subdued - Dwelling Investment To Stay Strong For Next Year Or So, But Raises Risk Of Oversupply - GDP Growth Looks To Have Moderated In Q2 As Net Exports Added Less - Wage Growth Expected To Remain Low, Rise Modestly Out To 2018 - Increasing Supply, China Steel Cutbacks To Put Downward Pressure On Iron Ore Prices - Growth In China Expected To Slow Gradually Over Next Few Years, Housing A Risk - Brexit To Have Limited Effect On Australia's Major Trading Partners
by QuantumLogicTrading
11
SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASINGAM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow pace. 2. RBA Minutes that support this view of low CPI leading to a cut from July said - - On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong AUD which in turn supports RBA doves out there as a cut is the remedy to stop a deflationairy currency in its tracks. Further, RBA notably were under no illusions regarding their inflation situation stating " inflation set to stay low for some time" - another encouraging stimulus for doves given inflation's important position/ weight for setting future policy. - As per the attached post, i remain dovish/ bearsh on aussie$, and i continue to expect a cut to 1.50% (25bps) this year given i expect their inflation to remain stagnant. Clear targets are 0.73 when probability of a cut is higher - though i would enter shorts regardless if AUD$ could find its way to its 12m highs at 0.78, though unlikely. - I like USD strength in the medium term too hence supporting the short Aussie dollar view RBA Minutes Highlights: RBA MINUTES: BOARD TO WATCH KEY DATA, WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENT TO RATES IF NEEDED; REVIEW OF FORECASTS IN AUG WILL HELP STEER POLICY - Inflation set to stay low for some time, employment mixed, retail sales look set to pick up - Stronger AUD would complicate economic rebalancing - Economic transition is now well advanced
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL AUDUSD - JUNE RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - DOVISH/ CUT POSSIBLEOn the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong AUD which in turn supports RBA doves out there as a cut is the remedy to stop a deflationairy currency in its tracks. Further, RBA notably were under no illusions regarding their inflation situation stating " inflation set to stay low for some time" - another encouraging stimulus for doves given inflation's important position/ weight for setting future policy. As per the attached post, i remain dovish/ bearsh on aussie$, and i continue to expect a cut to 1.50% (25bps) this year given i expect their inflation to remain stagnant. Clear targets are 0.73 when probability of a cut is higher - though i would enter shorts regardless if AUD$ could find its way to its 12m highs at 0.78, though unlikely. I like USD strength in the medium term too hence supporting the short Aussie dollar view RBA Minutes Highlights: RBA MINUTES: BOARD TO WATCH KEY DATA, WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENT TO RATES IF NEEDED; REVIEW OF FORECASTS IN AUG WILL HELP STEER POLICY - Inflation set to stay low for some time, employment mixed, retail sales look set to pick up - Stronger AUD would complicate economic rebalancing - Economic transition is now well advanced
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
DXY/ USD: FOMC MINUTES & FED TARULLO/ DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSJune FOMC Minutes Highlights: - FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook -FOMC Minutes: Members Said Prudent to Wait for More Labor Market Data, Brexit Vote Before Raising Rates -FOMC Minutes: Prior to Brexit Vote, Staff Saw Uncertainty Holding Down Investment in U.K. -FOMC Minutes: Members Judged It Appropriate to Continue to Leave Policy Options Open, Maintain Flexibility -FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw 2H GDP 'a Little Slower' Than in Previous Forecast -FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Said UK Referendum on EU Could Generate Financial Turbulence -FOMC Minutes: Staff Saw Risks to Forecast from Developments Abroad 'Skewed to the Downside' -FOMC Minutes: Officials in June Said Pace of Labor Market Gains Slowed, Economic Growth Picked Up -FOMC Minutes: Most Participants Saw Risks to Economic Projections as 'Broadly Balanced' -FOMC Minutes: Many Participants saw Risk to GDP, Inflation Forecasts 'Weighted to the Downside' -FOMC Minutes: Officials Said Job Gains Diminished in Intermeeting Period Although Unemployment Rate Fell -FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Saw Risks to Unemployment Rate Forecast 'Tilted to the Upside' -FOMC Minutes: Soft Readings on Business Investment Behind Lowered Participant GDP Forecasts -FOMC Minutes: Most Members Indicated Recent Slowdown in Payroll Gains Increased Uncertainty About Labor -Market -FOMC Minutes Showed Officials Divided on Reasons For Weaker May Payrolls Growth -FOMC Minutes: However Many Participants Said Underlying Pace of Job Gains Slowed From Recent Months -FOMC Minutes: Many Participants Said Neutral Rate of Interest Likely to Be Lower Than Estimated Earlier -FOMC Minutes: Most Officials Expected to See 'Continued Progress' Toward 2% Inflation Target -FOMC Minutes: Some Participants Said Sluggish Business Investment Could Portend Slowdown Fed Tarullo & Dudley Speech highlights: NY Fed Dudley: Current Treasury Yield A Concern Tarullo: Global Financial System 'Reasonably Well Prepared' For Brexit Shock Tarullo: Have to Watch to See How Brexit Macroeconomic Developments Play Out Tarullo: Brexit Response in U.S. Gone About As We Expected Tarullo: There Won't Be A Moment Where We Say 'Brexit Is Done' Tarullo: Right Level of Interest Rate Depends on Factors Affecting Economy Tarullo: 'This Is Not An Economy That's Running Hot' Tarullo: Fed Probably Not Providing As Much Accommodation As People Think Tarullo: Were Economy to Pick Up Rapidly, Fed Has Tools to Respond Appropriately Tarullo: Better For Fed to Wait For More Evidence of Rising Inflation Tarullo: Want to Be More Convinced Underlying Inflation Closer to 2% Tarullo: Low Rates Can Create Financial Instability, But That May Not Justify Raising Rates Tarullo: No 'Immediate Concerns' About Financial Instability, Asset Bubbles Tarullo: Still Has Concerns About Liquidity Broadly, Especially Outside Banks Tarullo: Cutting Capital Buffer Could Make Loans More Available 'If There Is Demand' Tarullo: Policy Easing by Other Central Banks Can Have Disinflationary Effect on U.S. Economy Tarullo: Wants More Evidence of Inflation Before Raising Interest Rates
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Long GBPAUD - Fundamentals and Technical matchesEntered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828) Fundamental: With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue. USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers. Technical: AUDUSD has been in consolidation since start of the month, whilst GBPUSD looks more likely to look for a retracement after the swift fall. Daily chart as above also showed a bullish flag pattern on the GBPAUD pair (credits to EagleTrades - link below) Both 100 and 200 DMA are trending upwards SL right below 200 DMA which coincides with previous high in August (1.81866) TP1/2 at 1.8600/80 respectively
Long
by Speculator2