Trading Edge 2020 Portoflio -Trade #1 - MJ - Under loved Pot ETFTrading Edge 2020 Portfolio trade #1
Ticker: MJ
Position:
- Looking at long dated call options (Jan 15th 2021)
- $15 strike (ITM, gives some degree of protection against theta decay)
- Cost (approximately $460/ contract, at current mid bid and ask, willing to go as high as $5.00)
- 0.72 Delta (ITM)
- Running 2x contracts (allows us to sell one on the way up, also makes a more meaningful position size)
Profit Target/ Exit:
- looking for mean reversion to allow us to sell half to have a riskless trade, this would require a move to around the $22.50 - $23.00 range
- Given the fact the position is a long-dated option, we will not run a technical stop, instead we will let the position run and check to see if it performers or not (i.e. no point running a 50% stop and getting stopped out, 1 month into a 12 month contract).
Rationale:
- Speculative counter trend play on MJ, given the overwhelming negative sentiment
- Simple position to manage, the long-dated nature means that we have 12 months for this ETF to regain it's legs, also means that if we get a market correction, we have the time to ride it out
- Despite the price action, MJ has been a high beta performer, if we are going through a 'melt up' phase, then MJ is likely to be swept up in the euphoria
- Both MACD and RSI signaling a possible bullish reversal (or even just a potential bear rally)
- Moving averages signaling a possible bounce is due, not necessarily a total trend reversal
- TradingEdge
Portfolio spreadsheet available to view here >>> docs.google.com
