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MMT

Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
The end of MMTThis is quite symbolic graph comparing NASDAQ Composite Index to the interest rates since the end of gold standard in USA in 1971 and beginning of the Modern Monetary Theory where FED economists thought country can't bankrupt because always more money can be printed. Each time since 1971 when there was a crisis and stock market going down the best solution was QE (quantitative easing) to flood economy with more printed money, each time however decreasing the living standards for people because of inflation . And here we are now when the rates are nearly zero and we are facing next big crisis, but first time since 1970's according to MMT the central bank can't lower interest rates because we are already at the bottom, there is no speace for easing. How this will end? Nothing good is waiting for us in the nearest future in my opinion. There is high inflation and to stop it the interest rates would have to be much higher, even double digits in the US and Europe but central banks won't like to do this because the countries have huge debts and high interest rates means they could just go bankrupt (which would be the best option - let it bankrupt and clear this economy). I think hitting the ground will be very hard.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by UnknownUnicorn29290293
Modern Monetary Theory vs Crypto (ft. Inflation, Ronald Reagan)Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is not a "magic money tree" like a lot of (privledged) people say it is. The money for it comes from: - Leveraging the US Dollar's credit rating in exchange for short-term loans - Collateral from debt and related interest rates - Increasing the gap between inflationary assets (whom lean in favor of the wealthy) and labor wages, which often goes unnoticed One thing to note is that instead of raising taxes (which nobody wants to do) the government has been inflating the valuations of assets like real-estate in order to compensate for loss of taxable revenue. The reason why the Federal Reserve isn't likely to increase interest rates, even if they could. Crypto is disruptive to the finance industry because it gives the power of asset ownership to the wider public, which ends up in competition with traditional asset classes like real-estate and stocks. And crypto is winning so far, which is the reason why you hear a lot of cries of "foul play" from the other side. 😭 Traditional finance falls apart when people default on their loan (literally unable to pay it back due to hopelessness), which we briefly saw in 2008, which they covered up with band-aid policies that could come off at any moment. I'm trying to figure out the timing of this right now but it hasn't been easy. But we do know it's coming soon, because COVID has accelerated the trends towards this stuff even more as the government continues to have no plan for how or when this train is going to end. It's only a matter of time. Either way, hold on to your butts, folks. Link to NFT: opensea.io
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by RyanTanaka
SP500: Sell Rallies - Pre-empt PullbackMy strategy for the SP500 index is as follows: - Exit Long positions on rallies and hold a core long position for the long term ( "time in the market") - Wait for a deep pullback to start adding back Longs (SP500 is growth function) - Happy to scalp short term, but I like a to 'load the wagon" long if we had a decent 600-1000 point correction! - Trade in smalls and build a position (limit grids - no 'binary' trading) Fiscal stimulus is still strong. Downside issues is the ridiculous USA debt ceiling, which is meaningless in a fiat currency system, but which is exploited for political reasons. Infrastructures deal is great for the market - but that seems subject to risks also. The ideal situation would be to have a 'deep' correction, and then have a decent infrastructure deal be agreed to and passed in the house. NB. Infrastructure deal is passed and debt ceiling is avoided - ignore the above (but it is very unlikely that we will not have volatility and further downside runs in the market as we approach end of September and go into October).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Adam-Cox
Powell's taper comments coming-up: Potential scalp opportunitiesI have set-out my logic in prior posts of how I am exiting the SP500 market from prior longs bought more than 18 months ago - by selling into rallies. If an infrastructure deal goes ahead and debt ceiling issues are dealt to successfully, I will reconsider my current stance. However, I am happy to scalp particularly from needless / senseless market over-reactions for short term scalp trading opportunities. We may see an opportunity coming up with Powell and the Jackson Hole meeting coming up. My rationale set-out below: - tapering is simply a reduction in the Fed's open market operations (OMO) whereby treasuries are purchased from dealers (secondary market) with the result being that cash from trader's is deposited into the Banking system. This cash is also known as reserves ( Refer blue Histogram ) - The effect of this QE style OMO is to strip credit interest out of the non-government sector that would have otherwise been paid to holders of treasuries as one form of money (treasurites) is replaced with another form (Bank cash / reserves). - the banking system is 'pull system' , not a 'push system'. Banks need capital to make loans; not deposits as the Fed, like all Reserve Banks, they act as lender of last resort. Stuffing the banking system full of cash does not benefit Banks, rather it makes regulatory capital management harder for Banks and produces scarcity of interest bearing securities, with downward pressure on rates. - to offset some of this effect, reverse repos have been employed by the Fed as a 'temporary' measure - but is its like a senseless merry-go-round. Why am I saying all of this? - where you have record high fiscal growth supporting a market (risks looming in the background - debt ceiling), and potentially needless market panic regarding the word 'taper', which is actually positive not negative for the market, then that's a great short term buy opportunity to scalp back to the mean. What level will I buy at: I would like to buy around the cost basis of swing traders which is marked on the chart and which represents around 20% market capitalization. I will be checking out my Market Risk indicator which looks at a range of factors including futures spreads for a potential long scalp trade. Instead, call writing maybe your go-to strategy here instead but there's not much Vol to sell (yet!) #MMT
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
SP500: Grind and FizzlesWhilst one of my trading systems (as displayed) doesn't yet display Exit-Long signals, I have been pre-empting some expected volatility which I perceive can arise due to what can be an lengthy infrastructure Bill process along with the Debt Ceiling fiasco. I detailed this in an earlier post. Up to this point I have been happy to ignore exit signals based on perceptions of market risk and fiscal support - noting the SP500 index in this model, is assumed to represent a US GDP growth function along with an 'off-risk' overlay. Where I have low market risk, clear fiscal support (infrastructure bill is committed to), Covid-19 strains (delta strain) understood and the ridiculous debt ceiling overcome, I will assess if it is appropriate to be Long or Longer the broad US market. I expect the market to pull-back, and will assess being long on limits at lower prices. #adam-cox
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
How Central Banks Are Stealing Your MoneySince the merger between the Fed and the Treasury (kidding, kind of), I've had so many conversations with individuals outside of the financial industry who struggle to fully grasp how central banks are stealing their money. Today, I'm going to share a short and simple post which I hope will help explain the direct effect of "money printing," on the working class. Let's jump right into it. When interest rates remain low for an extended period of time (historically), risk assets become more prone to rampant speculation (lucky for those holding assets outside of cash), leading to massive distortions in the underlying fundamentals of those assets, and historical valuation deviations from the mean (which is mathematically unsustainable). The rapidily rising prices of both assets, and goods & services, which is not being stimulated by an actual increase in the velocity of money, but rather from central banks artificially flooding the monetary system with liquidity (while interest rates are near zero), contributes to a lower standard of living for those holding cash as their primary asset. For example: If you have $100 in your bank account, and perhaps this is your only asset, then the central bank increases the money supply by 25%, what they've just done is increase the denominator which underpins the value of that $100. Here's a simple logical demonstration: 100/100 = 1 (baseline purchasing power.) 100/125 = 0.80 (a 25% increase in the money supply in this example, as a result of central bank money printing, results in a 20% loss in purchasing power.) In essence, in this hypothetical situation, you've just lost 20% of your purchasing power. With CPI in the US running at 5.4% YoY vs the Fed's 2% "target," we're currently looking at an inflation rate almost triple the Fed's goal. The US10Y yield trades at 1.25% while CPI is 5.4%, and the Fed continues to print $1.44 Trillion on an annualized basis, with no end in sight. Welcome to the wonderfully horrific world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Anyone looking for a hedge?
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
13
USD at 78-84 cents by August 2021 ?!Bear trap at 93 cents is almost confirmed and if we head down, look back longer period charts to get guidance on there the key long term support is. I would not short the USD but it's hard to imagine the world is going to flock to the overvalued USD since endless debasement is not endless. Yes, it's endless as the ravine is endless.... The only thing that's holding on the USD at about 90 cents is it's the safer of the FIAT currencies. Or it is? Comment, like, dislike. Everything is good in using the truth as guidance.
INDEX:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
Break out into blue sky past historical high, ascending triangleThis is very, very bullish and we'll have the world in FOMO (Fear of missing out). The art in the next few days/weeks/months will be buying on the dips if they happen but we're sitting on a rocket it seems? We're passing the critical $20K USD level and we'll likely see $25K very, very shortly. We are crossing bullish on the MACD and histogram is turning green on the daily. Weekly is still overbought so don't expect a shooting star but then again, don't be surprised getting on as Funds, Pensions and ETFs start pouring billions into Bitcoin's limited supply of coins (18.5M circulating, 21M total). How many people do you know that owns crypto and bitcoin? Ask your friends. Most average joe don't. It's too complex for the average person. Those who own Botcoin don't actually own it, the Exchanges have them in their custody. For trading, Trade on exchanges like Binance which is the #1 crypto exchange in the world, followed by Coinbase? When you Invest long term in Bitcoin, don't do it via an Exchange, hold your own secret/private key in a safe place offline such as a paper wallet (free) or hardware wallets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
bear snareDescription: In the Russian Far East, a lasso-like rope loop is hung across a path which bears are known to frequent; its end is tied to a tree. The bear passes through the rope as it walks by and the lasso tightens around its body as it continues to move. Eventually the bear becomes so entangled within the rope that it can no longer move. Timeframe: After a few days, the hunter arrives to finish off the immobilized animal. Indicators used: Altcoin fractals, funding rate Shout out to: Modern Monetary Theory, The Green New Deal, and Peter Marco.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by hwph