Trade Reflection & Overview – Final Thoughts on the Day’s SetupIn this final video, I’m reflecting on the trade and the key lessons learned throughout the session. Looking back, I realize I should have taken profits when price tested the 9:33 AM fair value gap, which would have given us a nice profit. Although I expected lower prices, considering we had a bearish daily bias, I underestimated the strength of the daily fair value gap, which had already been tapped multiple times. Price held above the 50% level, and that was a strong signal for higher prices.
Additionally, the double top formation near Monday’s buy-side liquidity could have been a target for price, which adds to the case for a reversal higher. Despite missing some potential profit, we ended the day with a total of $50,723.16 in profit.
Looking ahead, the focus is on consistent trades, avoiding FOMO, and maintaining solid setups that make sense. I’m committed to sticking with MNQ for now, refining my confidence in the setups and building a steady rhythm. Once we’re fully confident and have more capital, I’ll look to take on more risk, but for now, the goal is simple — keep it consistent and avoid repeating past mistakes.
This is the year of building profitability and consistency, and I’m ready for the journey ahead.
Trade Overview:
Profit: $200
Account Balance: $50,723.16 for the day
Reflections: Missed opportunity to take profits at key levels
Next Steps: Focus on solid setups, consistency, and avoiding FOMO
Trading Plan: Sticking with MNQ for now, working on building confidence and rhythm.
Mnq
Position Management – Consolidation and Missed Exit OpportunityPosition Management – Consolidation, Inverse Head & Shoulders, and Missed Exit Opportunity
In this video, we continue managing the position, which remains in consolidation. Price taps the 50% level where we took our first partial, retraces higher, and taps the inverse fair value gap that previously held support for the sell-off. From there, we rush lower to the 9:33 AM fair value gap, finding instant support and bouncing just shy of the 50% mark of that gap.
This is also coinciding with the 25% level of the daily fair value gap. As price trades up to the 7.05 area, we create a triple top before moving lower again, but it’s been choppy and ugly. At around 11:00 AM, I reflect on how taking profits at the first test of the 9:33 AM fair value gap would've been the ideal move, putting us up around $380.
We’re now observing a potential inverse head and shoulders forming, with the 9:33 AM fair value gap as the head and the 50% area as the higher right shoulder, suggesting a reversal for higher prices.
Trade Overview:
Price Action: Choppy movement, with multiple taps of key levels
Key Levels: 9:33 AM fair value gap, 50% of fair value gap, 25% daily fair value gap
Pattern: Observing an inverse head and shoulders setup forming
Exit Reflection: Considering missed opportunity to take profits at 11:00 AM.
Position Management – Price Consolidation & FVG SupportIn this video, we continue managing the position after taking our first partial. Price consolidates around the 50% retracement level before pushing lower to the 21,188.75 level, which aligns with the 9:33 AM fair value gap we identified earlier. We find support here, and at this point, we’re still hoping to see a continuation lower.
However, the inverse fair value gap only holds for a few more points before the price reverses against us. This ultimately takes us out of the position, but we still lock in a profit of $65 from the trade.
Trade Overview:
Price Action: Consolidation near 50%, then lower to 21,188.75 (9:33 AM fair value gap)
Support: Price found support at the fair value gap level before reversing
Exit: Stopped out with $65 profit as the inverse fair value gap failed to hold.
Trade Management – First Partial at 50% of the TrendIn this video, we’re already inside the 10 AM trade from the previous setup. At this point, we’re up 290 ticks, and we’re managing the position carefully. To mitigate risk, we decided to take our first partial near the 50% retracement of the trend, just in case the price reversed and went against us.
This step allowed us to lock in some profit while still leaving room for the trade to continue in our favor.
Trade Overview:
Profit: +290 ticks
Partial: First partial taken at 50% retracement of the trend
Risk Management: Protecting against potential reversal while staying in the trade.
10 AM Trade – Entry After Buy-Side Liquidity ManipulationAfter the 10 AM candle formed, price quickly expanded higher, as we had anticipated, taking out the buy-side liquidity before tapping into a new week opening gap low. Once this manipulation played out, I observed the price action on smaller timeframes, particularly the 1-minute chart, where we saw a bullish break for value gaps. I used this as an inverse setup to enter on the third or fourth candle.
The trade eventually played out, moving lower as expected, setting the stage for further price action that I’ll explain in more detail in the upcoming videos.
Trade Overview:
Entry: After the 10 AM candle, based on a break of a bullish FVGs on the 1-minute
Bias: Anticipating buy-side liquidity manipulation and a move toward lower prices
Execution: Entered on the third or fourth candle, holding for a continuation lower.
MNQ Trade Setup -- Waiting for Flash PMI ImpactI’m holding off on a re-entry as we approach the Flash PMI at 9:45 AM. My bias is that there’s a potential for price manipulation to push higher above buy-side liquidity, taking out the highs before continuing lower. I’m waiting for the PMI release to confirm this idea and get better clarity on the market direction.
Bias: Expecting a possible manipulation higher to take out buy-side liquidity, followed by a continuation lower.
Waiting for Flash PMI to unfold before making any further decisions.
MNQ 5.20.25 Trade Management (3)Execution, Risk management and Profit taking shown live in the next 3 posts I am about to share with you guys.
I wanted to use that 4H 10am Low as an entry and we caught it. Now we are watching to see if that was just a manipulation to trade into that bearish FVG I outlined near that Buyside liquidity area we were targetting.
Closing the day out with $110 in profits, Which you will see on Video #3
MNQ 5.20.25 Trade Idea (2)Execution, Risk management and Profit taking shown live in the next 3 posts I am about to share with you guys.
I wanted to use that 4H 10am Low as an entry and we caught it. Now we are watching to see if that was just a manipulation to trade into that bearish FVG I outlined near that Buyside liquidity area we were targetting.
Closing the day out with $110 in profits, Which you will see on Video #3
MNQ 5.20.25 Trade Idea (1)Execution, Risk management and Profit taking shown live in the next 3 posts I am about to share with you guys.
I wanted to use that 4H 10am Low as an entry and we caught it. Now we are watching to see if that was just a manipulation to trade into that bearish FVG I outlined near that Buyside liquidity area we were targetting.
Closing the day out with $110 in profits, Which you will see on Video #3
Divergence Since 2020 - What Happens When Bonds Continue?When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean?
We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling?
Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure?
A healthy, three-way interdependent relationship occurs when the economy, bonds, and stocks move in the same direction. When investors have confidence in the U.S. economy, they tend to invest in long-term bonds, which it usually will benefits the stock market.
This alignment was evident between 2000 and 2020, during which bonds and stocks moved largely in tandem.
However, from 2020 onward, bonds began declining—signaling a loss of investor confidence in the economy. Technically, this should exert downward pressure on stocks as well.
Yet, we are witnessing a divergence: Where U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen while stocks have continued to rise.
When such a divergence surfaces, it signals the need for caution in our approach in the stock markets.
What could be the other reasons why US T-bond has peaked in 2020 and depreciated by 44% since then?
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
MNQ Trade Idea Continuation (3)Continuation into the trade idea we were sharing, we traded through the Daily high level we were targetting of 21,404.75 then rushed lower under the Trendline Phantom line and under the IFVG that was used as support for price to reach 21,419.75.
Will this be another manipulation below 21,362.00 lows before continuation higher, or should I have set a TP at the 21,404.75 highs and called it a day?
Continuation to MNQ trading 5.14.25 (2)Continuation into my MNQ trading day, would like to see price continue higher, we have been pumping alot lately which cautions me to worry if we will see some sort of fast retracement sometime soon.
We took yesterday's daily highs, so I am a little confused if we will continue to take the current daily candle's high or if we will see some sort of retracement today into a bullish FVG from the daily to then continue trading higher.
The key aspect of trading that we are learning is when a candle/price will do something. Still alot to learn but have been making some decent choices with our trades. If we are stopped out we are still in profits for the day and maybe we call it.
The key thing I regret this trading session is not taking that $500 profit on NQ on that very first entry we took. Would've offset our losses and helped us stay secure profits for the day.
Continuation into MNQ trades 5.14.25Continuation into my MNQ trading day, would like to see price continue higher, we have been pumping alot lately which cautions me to worry if we will see some sort of fast retracement sometime soon.
We took yesterday's daily highs, so I am a little confused if we will continue to take the current daily candle's high or if we will see some sort of retracement today into a bullish FVG from the daily to then continue trading higher.
The key aspect of trading that we are learning is when a candle/price will do something. Still alot to learn but have been making some decent choices with our trades. If we are stopped out we are still in profits for the day and maybe we call it.
The key thing I regret this trading session is not taking that $500 profit on NQ on that very first entry we took. Would've offset our losses and helped us stay secure profits for the day.
ChopFlow ATR Scalp Strategy (OBV EMA) on MNQThe ChopFlow ATR Scalp Strategy combines a low choppiness regime filter, on-balance volume with EMA confirmation, and ATR-based exits to capture quick micro-trends on the NASDAQ-100 E-mini (MNQ).
Strategy Logic
1. Choppiness Filter:
-Calculate the Choppiness Index over 14 bars.
- Trade only when chop < 60 (trending or mildly trending market).
2. Order-Flow Confirmation:
- Compute OBV and its 10-period EMA.
- Long when OBV > OBV EMA and chop < threshold.
- Short when OBV < OBV EMA and chop < threshold.
3. ATR-Based Exit:
- Exit at a fixed multiple of ATR (stop and profit target both = 1.5 × ATR).
How to Trade It
1. Confirm time chart with MNQ , preferably1-min chart.
2. Enable only the 17:00–16:00 CME session.
3. Look for low choppiness (< 60), then wait for OBV cross.
4. Enter with one-contract size, tight 1.5× ATR stops/profits.
5. Monitor DOM for liquidity shifts around entry levels.
MNQ Sell Idea 5.2.2025Hey Everyone, Welcome back! I am here posting a trade idea we caught, hopefully our final terminus is hit! But in this video I share with you guys my confluences and bias for this trade.
We took out BSL with the 8:30am open and NFP news. I am targetting 19,829 levels as a potential area of interest because I believe the market will want to trade into it for buying opportunities as I do believe the market is bullish.
MNQ Outlook 4-21-25Toying around with posting publicly welcome back folks.
MNQ still is yet to pick a direction following the big run on wednesday 2 weeks ago. long term I think path of least resistance is for price to continue to chase sellside liquidity. However that high that was put in on that wednesday may be cleared out first.
In any case my trade bias is always day by day and what is offered to me during my trading window.
Please note this is not investment advice.
NASDAQ Futures Long Setup: Pullback Entry After Tariff BoostMarket Outlook – April 13, 2025
Quick recap: In my last public analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully:
✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick
✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib
✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up
All solid signs of strength.
Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week.
Here’s What I’m Watching:
🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs.
🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form.
To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering.
Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈
MNQ 9:30 Open Trade Idea 💡 Trade Idea shown live here, beautiful setup that was respected very nicely during the 9:30 open.
The area we pointed out on the previous video:
Where I stated price was likely trading up to fill in that FVG before dropping lower was respected perfectly. I was rendering the video above when it happened. Hence, why you see me enter late here.
I could have been more patient and waited to enter at the 50% of the bearish fvg level. But regardless, I was able to profit $31 and make back the $30 I was in drawdown for. Had this been NQ we would've made over $695 on this one trade.
This is teaching us discernment in our decision making and how to trust our bias and trade ideas.
We caught over 130 points on this one MNQ trade and the potential was over 400 points as shown on this video.
We were targeting the bullish 1h fvg and sellside liquidity (equal lows)
If you guys found this insightful give it a like and comment down below. I would also love to know if any of you guys would like me to share any specific ideas or go over anything in particular. Let me know!
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