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ridethepig | Dollar UpdatesThe threat of a pullback has been set up, the unpleasant rally in USD as investors rush to park capital in the greenback. Just at the right moment, because of lockdowns, covid chapter II and things of this nature the highs can be burst open. Although we are in LONG TERM structural decline in the dollar, it does not mean we will not have to rush and take cover under the table when the storm hits shore. Buyers thus have a fortunate swing in play this week towards 95.4x. The job is only half finished, governments are aiming to default on the debt and covid / lockdowns provide the perfect cover. Capitalism is taking a sabbatical, it's being undermined and globalisation is collapsing like a house of cards. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
11
“hard” Brexit & pound prepares for the worstGreat Britain expects “hard” Brexit. Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson faced off in leadership debate. The candidates were asked about the Irish border (which will become the only land border between the UK and the EU after Brexit). Both were clear that the issue will not be resolved with a positive outcome. The odds of No-deal Brexit are rising. Due to this, the pound treated with selling yesterday. Back to status in employment on the UK labour market. The estimated employment rate : + 25K with a forecast + 45K. Requirements to receive unemployment compensation rose to + 38K (last month figure 24.5K). Brexit continues to be the main driver of everything that happens with the pound over the last couple of years. It's a buying opportunity as the pound price is low. It is necessary to act without “fanaticism”. Recall, new UK prime minister will appear next week. Negotiations are progressing well towards concluding an agreement between the US and China. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer may travel to Beijing for trade negotiations. US retail sales rose 0.4 per cent that is better than expected. However, we still do not plan to buy a dollar and we will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market Our trading recommendations for today: sell the dollar, oil and the Russian ruble. We buy safe-haven asset: gold and Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
Peaceful US and GDP data & Bitcoin is blowing a bubbleYesterday, a fairly clear signal from the United States was received by markets and China. The USA is interested in a peaceful outcome. The information that the United States has decided to postpone the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods (over $ 300 billion). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’. American companies found a way to circumvent the ‘Huawei’ ban. Recall, we have advised selling gold at USD 1430-1435. So those ones who followed our recommendations would have earned good money. The correlation between cryptocurrency prices reached 21% (!). We believe that there is nothing behind such growth and another price bubble will burst soon. Once again, we note that there is no logic in growth. A surge of optimism among buyers after Facebook “Libra” was announced is actually an odd thing. If Facebook had announced that Bitcoin is its reference currency, then yes, it would be possible to understand the current growth and even consider it reasonable. But we are talking about the emergence of a superpowerful competitor to Bitcoin, which will get the lion's share of the market and buying Bitcoin on this background is illogical at least. So we continue to recommend sales of key cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin primarily. As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, orders for durable goods in the United States were frankly failed (-1.3% with a forecast of -0.3%), and the trade balance also turned out to be much worse than experts' expectations ($ 75.5 billion against forecasts - $ 71.8 billion). Nevertheless, the dollar felt quite confident in the foreign exchange market. However, today the situation might change. US WPF data might be unpleasantly surprised, and then the dollar simply will have no options than to decline. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium terms. As for gold, today we, perhaps, will work without obvious preferences, buying and selling gold on the intraday basis in its oversold / overbought levels.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
EURUSD: IMF key levelsEURUSD has a weekly uptrend, from a 'Time at Mode' perspective, and the sentiment is considerably negative for it lately, with the French elections starting the first round tomorrow. This weekend, the IMF meeting takes place, and it might be a very significant event for the Euro. This week is packed with data and potential catalysts for all markets, with Mnuchin's speech in less than 2 hours from now, the IMF meetings today and tomorrow, and French elections, things will be interesting at the open. Then during the week, we have Trump's 'tax package' announcement after Wedneday, as well as the freedom caucus potentially approving the revised Obamacare repeal plan. What is certain, is that mainstream media, sentiment, and the regular Joe will get it all wrong, sadly. So, let's try to remain contrarian. Best of luck and have a nice weekend. Ivan Labrie. Ref: www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com "The IMFC statement reiterated pledges from October to “refrain from competitive devaluations” of currencies and to avoid targeting “our exchange rates for competitive purposes.”"
Long
by IvanLabrie